This is it, guys. Something between now and January 20th is going to happen that brings the United States to its knees. We’ve crossed the Rubicon. No going back.
It’s just a matter of what it is.
I can’t predict the future, so there’s about a 10% chance we punt this problem down the road. But I don’t see that happening. A sizable portion of the population has a blind rage against liberals and have such absolute fidelity to the Dear Leader they would rather destroy the country they claim to love than brook the possibility of him leaving office.
So, we’re on the eve of destruction. There’s going to be a civil war / revolution in the context World War 3 happening as a number of regional conflicts explode into hot conflict — with nuclear wepons.
And any civil war in the United States is going to be horrific. Just off the top of my head, I could see 10 to 30 million die in the United States civil war because of the frequent use of WMD that would be seized by both sides. Then I would estimate close to 1 billion might die outside the United States as Pakistan – India, China – India, DPRK – ROK, China – ROC, Israel – Iran, Russia – Ukraine all go after each other at the same time.
Of note — no way Trump stays in power beyond serving the purpose of his Russian handles — we see you Gen Mike Flynn! –of starting the civil war. He’s just too big a ding-dong to lead the Red States into a civil war. Someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo would stage a coup against HIM and then things grow extremely violent and radical. Pompeo, in particular might simply make Trump a figure head so he can do a rain dance every morning in hopes of bringing Jesus back. (Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and, as such, if the “Tribulation” happens, Jesus is SURE to come back, right, Mike?)
But America will be made great again, I guess? Liberals will be owned>?
While I’m not the political genius that Maggie Haberman believes Trump to be, it’s very, very, very easy for me to not only come up with Blue State civil war aims, but to lay out how they could win such a civil war.
First, Blue State war aims.
If I had any say in such things — which I never will, but work with me — I would say Blue State war aims would be a Renew American Covenant. If you work on the assumption that Lincoln renewed the American Covenant by turning the Civil War into a war of liberation, then you could say that the Blue State war aims would be to bring the liberal democracy prosperity of California to the entire United States.
Or, put another way, if you could keep California engaged with the dream of a more perfect Union, then you could get them to use their economic might and population size as the engine that would re-unite the States under a Renewed American Covenant. Unfortunately, this is something of a big “if.” California could just wash its hands of the Union and enjoy its status as a free country.
But I’m too much of a Neo-Lincolnist. I want to believe that California would serve the same purpose that states like New York and Pennsylvania did in the original civil war. So, that’s a war aim — make America great again by using California as model for what you want the Union to look like once you win any very tragic — and dumb — civil war.
Now to how Blue States would win any such civil war. If you can just keep California in the Union, they could easily blitzkrieg across the rather empty mountain and Great Plains states and link up with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. They would, in turn link up with Illinois and the Blue States of the Northeast. Then you do a pincer movement east and south. And, remember, if you’re using the Califnornia model of progressive politics, it’s easy to imagine Blue States in some way tapping into a supply of soldiers that Red States never would — women.
I would also promise African Americans in the South some sort of post-war reoperations for slavery if they simply make life hell for the Neo-Confederates of the South. That’s a pretty good bargain and would fix a lot of problems with systemic racism after any dumb, avoidable and tragic Second American Civil War.
But let me be clear — this is just a back of the envelope type situation. Of course MAGA would likely, in desperation, seize WMD in parts of the country they controlled and bomb — and gas — us all to the stone age in desperation. And they probably might simply start murdering African Americans like Nazis given any type excuse.
AND, you would have to factor in WW3 would be taking place across the globe as the United States went through a second civil war. So, the DPRK might vaporize a few cities in the United States out of spite while we were busy killing each other over “cancel culture.”
I listened to some of my favorite podcast, Deep State Radio today and they proposed that essentially the “Stop The Steal” movement is a precursor a Germany post-World War 1 “Stab in the Back” type movement in the United States.
I totally agree with that assessment but for one thing — they’re assuming we’re going to make it through the next few weeks without the whole country imploding. If we manage to punt this crisis down the road a few years, that’s probably our best case scenario.
This crisis is going to go septic now, not later. As one of the people on Deep State Radio said, we’re one Trump tweet away from significant political violence in the United States. And, as I’ve written before, Trump is playing a very dangerous expectations game right now. So much so as to be seditious unto itself.
As such, it seems to me that Americans collectively have crossed the Rubicon. There’s going to be a second American Civil War very, very soon. Like NOW. If it doesn’t happen it will be amazing. It’s like America is holding its breath to see if it will be a rouge SCOTUS ruling, a transactional Trump tweet, a massive truckbomb in NYC or LA or some major political figured murdered in cold blood that does the trick.
It definitely seems as though the Republican Party has been consumed by its most extreme elements. And, yet, I don’t even understand what their war aims are. There doesn’t seem to be any particular point to MAGA wanting a civil war other than…they want to keep Trump president? And as I keep saying, such a dumb (in real terms) war aim only gets you so far.
Blue States have bigger economies, bigger populations and better educated people. So, in a sense, what MAGA SHOULD want is simply the opportunity to leave the Union peacefully. A simple division of the country between Blue and Red. And, yet, that doesn’t seem to be their war aim right now. Replace “whities” with “liberals” in this SNL sketch and that seems to be the MAGA civil war aim going into it.
They have no war aim because they haven’t really given it much thought — it’s just a violent political grunt.
So, at this point, we only escape a shooting war in the United States if we’re lucky. All the conditions are there for an rapid escalation to the point where states begin to secede no matter what happens. And then the issue rests with California — will they stay and fight to re-unite the country or will the bounce and simply enjoy their new status as an independent country.
Then you start to wonder about Texas and Florida. And the exact status of New York City. If there was significant Balkanization in the United States, I could see NYC becoming a Free State of some sort.
New York City, 2020
Remember, I can come up with all the liberal-progressive Turner Diaries I want, in the end there would be no narrative or value to such a thing. It could be in the end it won’t be an “alls well that ends well” story like the Civil War, but, well, just the Turner Diaries or The Hunger Games or The Handmaid’s Tale.
The key thing to remember, of course, is this clusterfuck wouldn’t happen in a vacuum — World War 3 would happen if the United States imploded. So, that’s something to think about going forward.
This is probably how The Guns of August felt in 1914. Europe was nearly giddy at the prospect of war. So, too, are a lot of people — apparently a lot of them in the South — so giddy at the abstract concept of a Second American Civil War that they are completely oblivious to what they’re proposing.
I keep getting pings from the Usual Suspect of former CSA states — South Carolina and Alabama — from people obviously excited at the idea of a civil war or some sort of right-wing revolution. It’s surreal and disturbing that anyone would WANT America to buckle into civil war.
For Right Wing people to hate liberal so much that they would be willing to actually destroy the country they claim to love so much in their bloodlust against them….dumb and extremely callous.
But here we are.
So, what’s going on is while we all fear that SCOTUS could rule in Trump’s favor with this dumb and dangerous Texas case, the actual case itself is something of a place holder. What’s really going on is we’re all nervous Something Bad is going to happen that forces the issue of civil war / revolution.
Or, put another way — MAGA wants to murder liberals for political reasons and they just haven’t summoned up the courage to put their thoughts into practice. It definitely FEELS as though This Is IT. Something Bad is going to happen between now and, say, no later than April 2021 that causes the country to implode, divide and get extremely violent.
America, 2020.
The issue for me is, given that MAGA apparently has no war aims going into any such hypothetical civil war other than “murder liberals” and you have the setup for Red States to lose any civil war or revolution they might be looking forward to. Yes, MAGA would have first-mover advantage and a lot more leadership (for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is on board with destroying the country), but if a civil war actually happened, things would likely move very, very fast.
Blue State leaders would begin to rise the occasion pretty quick. I’m a big believer that the average person has it within them to rise the occasion should it happen — but they need the opportunity. (Trump is the exception that proves the rule.)
So, it would not take too many months of MAGA running around blowing shit up and killing people before a pretty huge swatch of non-MAGA people (many of them conservative) would begin to plot a counter attack. And that, in itself, is something we would have to get used to — no one under about 80 remembers World War 2 when there would battles won and lost, but ultimate the war itself was won.
As such, the first year or so of a Second American Civil War would be extremely chaotic and bloody as things began to sort themselves out. (Remember the moment any Second American Civil War starts, World War 3 starts, too, and it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK nuking a United States distracted by its own implosion.)
But, gradually, the economic, population and educational advantages of Blue States would show themselves and Red States would be thrown on the backfoot. Things would grow very radical for both sides and I could see Red States doing some pretty massive atrocities against, say, African American in the South — or even Jews for that matter.
Or, put another way, as things grew worse for the Neo-CSA, its government might grow more radical and Nazi-like. A race war might erupt in the South — especially if, say, Blue States told African Americans that if they rose up they would get Reparations for slavery after Blue States won the civil war.
The thing any shithead cocksucker who is excited about a Second American Civil War needs to be told is — it would be a massive, historic and global tragedy that would result in the deaths of potentially 100s of millions via various limited nuclear exchanges both domestic and internationally. It would be a tragedy that we would only give value and a narrative after the fact.
America is on the brink. It just feels like we’ve reached the end of a macro cycle. That this is it. No more punting severe political problems down the road. No more talk. No more finger pointing about the culture wars.
We’re about to have a war war.
I honestly can’t give you any metric as to why this is the case. But it’s as if everyone suddenly realized that this Union can’t be saved. The Far Right has completely consumed the Republican Party and now it’s just a waiting game for SCOTUS to throw the election to Trump. Or an Elector to get murdered. Or something, anything, that pushes us past the point of no return.
It could be even that even after we all think we’ve dodged a bullet, something happens out of the blue — like a war between Iran and Israel or the DPRK and ROK — that pushes us into civil war because Trump is actively and I mean ACTIVELY being seditious.
He seems to think him saying in power using any means necessary and, as such, destroying the United States is somehow in his, personal, best interest. Why that might be the case is rather curious. Sounds like he’s a useful stooge to the Russians to me.
I have repeatedly said in the past that if the End ever comes I’ll either be the first person to die or the guy who brings back civilization. So, if a Second American Civil War happens, I’m my vision is I pack up my few belongings and head north to NYC.
But first, some context.
This is really a delusional idea — for the moment — because of what it would require. When I lived in South Korea, I did really well there because every day was an adventure and everything is extremely chaotic. But for things to get so bad in the United States that I would have an infrastructure to get me to some sort of Revolutionary NYC, then, well, things would have to gotten very bad indeed.
I guess me talking about such — at the moment — delusional things is me simply giving myself some solace that I have A Plan, if need be. But I do know that I manage to get to NYC under the conditions of this dystopian hellscape, I would probably do quite well for myself. I’m really good at abstract thought and I’m a pretty good organizer.
If nothing else, it would be pretty cool (in a sense) to live in the Manhattan Commune, or whatever the Revolutionary Government there would be called. The idea such a thing would even ever exist is, in itself, rather dubious. But it just makes sense that of all the potential places for a Commune, NYC , LA and Boston would be it.
Or to put things another way — I’m not going to sit on my hands if America goes tits up. I’m going to use whatever talents I might have to try to make people’s lives better again.
And, really, there’s a good chance SCOTUS is going to punt this particular problem down the road and it might be as late as 2024 — or never — that such a End of The World situation even happens.
But it definitely feels as though America is one Oklahoma City-style explosion in NYC or LA, or an assassination away from the whole country collapsing and people dying for their politics. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.
At the moment, at least, America is on edge. Because of the Texas suit at SCOTUS right now, pretty much the entire country is worried that the Court will take it up, rule in Texas’ favor and Trump will “not lose.” I say this knowing that using virtually any metric, the case is pretty much just a publicity stunt.
Me, 2024.
And, yet, it is easy to imagine that everything goes wrong for America. The case is heard, SCOTUS rules in Texas’ favor and Trump “doesn’t lose.” It definitely seems that on a political level, at least this is a very rea possibility. The whole point of the Trump’s three SCOTUS appointments was to ensure they voted for him in just this specific situation. I see a 6-3 vote in Trump’s favor if SCOTUS actually hears the case — which it still may not.
Then what?
Well, my guess is a sudden wave of rolling political violence across the country would force a huge amount of domestic political refugees. Reds in Blue states and Blues and Red state would bounce around until they felt safe. And THAT is the thing people who are so eager for a civil war don’t realize — once the two sides consolidate any civil war is going to get pretty bloody pretty quick.
Our future.
Add to this that it’s possible not not even the U.S. Military will avoid a division into Blue and Red and, well, not only is the United States fucked, but the entire world. As soon as we have our Fort Sumter moment and the fighting begins, four or five regional wars across the globe will break out.
So, really, pretty much the fate of humanity will then be at risk because of a failed TV gameshow host. Places like NYC might have a regular old revolution with some sort of Revolutionary government.
Soon enough, the two sides will get really radical and it goes without saying that the massive amounts of WMD floating around the United State will be inevitably seized by both groups and millions and millions of people will die in the ensuing civil war or revolution.
MAGA 2024.
The United States bombs — and gasses — itself into the stone age over the next 4 to 5 years until some sort of Man on a Horse pops up and unites the country again. Or something. I have no idea what would happen.
As I’ve said before, the United States is collectively boxing itself into a mental state where there HAS to be a civil war. It’s as if we’ve given up with politics at last. MAGA wants to kill liberals and liberals have resigned themselves to significant political violence.
Right now, Trump is doing everything in his power to make his true believers think he can still win. And, in a sense, he can — all he needs is one of his various asymmetrical attacks to work and he “doesn’t lose.”
But Trump being Trump, there’s zero strategic thought involved. He just doesn’t want to lose. If he was some sort of brilliant pol, he would take the L and wait until 2024 to make his comeback.
Yet Trump is a vicious ding-dong and so here we are.
The question is — what happens once it becomes clear that Trump isn’t going to win? Will MAGA simply freak out and start blowing shit up and murdering people? That’s kind of the question of the day right now. And if, say, the Texaas case at SCOTUS now goes Trump’s way, then it will be the other side that starts blowing shit up. I’ll be amazed if a honest-to-God civil war doesn’t erupt in the United States between now and Jan. 20th.
Trump is actively trying to destroy the United States because he wants to stay in power forever. So, the conditions are there now for that to happen.
If the United States descends into civil war / revolution then WW3 happens pretty quickly afterwards and millions die.
It boggles my mind that anyone would actually want a civil war in the United States. In fact, if a civil war as bad as I fear might happen, happened here in the United States, it would be compared to the French Revolution in regards to a mysterious tragedy.
Using almost every metric but one, the United States is a rock solid country that from the outside you would never think was beginning to implode. But, here we are. The problem with the United States right now is almost entirety political. It seems to me that if you talk to your average conservative-but-not-MAGA person, if a civil war did happen it would be in large part to how conservatives perceive cancel culture.
Conservatives are enraged by cancel culture because of their abstract fear that simply by being conservative, they risking having their life ruined. That cancel culture doesn’t even really exist outside of some #MeToo monsters who definitely deserved it, is lost on them.
But your typical conservative can, off the top of their head, give you a half a dozen “examples” of people they believe were just minding their own business being conservative and then had everything taken from them for just being political “unwoke.” That they think this is pretty much the engine of fear and rage that has gotten us to this point.
The other big problem that has eaten away at America’s foundations is white, blue collar men without a college education can’t get laid anymore. They can’t afford to get married and start a family. For them, the American Dream is long dead.
So, we got MAGA.
Now, there’s a third aspect to our impending doom — Donald J. Fucking Trump.
He’s America’s anti-Gorbachev, but with similar results in that he’s going to probably destroy the country he was elected to lead.
Through a combination of being a criminal ding-dong and a regular old traitor, Trump is apparently hell bent on forcing us into political violence. There’s no ready answer.
Just be ready for anything, I guess. If I’m forced to leave my home because of my politics, I’m heading north to NYC. That seems my best bet to make a difference if it comes to that.
I’ve seen enough — we’ve lurched perilously close to an actual civil war, not just a cold civil war like we have now. The United States is one unexpected event away from imploding, taking the entire world order with it.
It could be anything at this point — a SCOTUS decision, an assassination, an Oklahoma City-type bombing (or two) or some combination of all those things. Or, put another way, our chances of civil war / revolution have grown significantly worse in just the last few days.
It’s like we’re boxing ourselves into a situation where one has to happen one way or another. On a psychological basis, at least, we’ve cross the Rubicon on this issue.
Americans are going to start killing each other for political reasons. To the point that WMD might be used and / or the U.S. Military implodes as individual members go Blue or Red.
Let me note two things — I don’t want this. And two, I’m wrong all the time.
So, it could be we escape and punt the consequences of the collapse of our political system down the road one more presidential cycle — or we don’t.
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