Tag: The Fourth Turning

Making Abstract Fears Concrete: Running Through Worse Case Biden Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my personality quirks is I like to make my many abstract fears concrete. As such, here are various absolute-worst-case-scenarios when it comes to Biden shuffling off this mortal coil.

  1. It happens after January 20th, 2025
    I don’t want it to happen at all, but if it DID happen, the best time for it happen for the country would be at some point during Biden’s second term. There is a specific set of events that would happen and after a proper amount of grief, the country could go back to tearing itself apart.
  2. It happens sooner rather than later
    If Biden shuffles off this mortal coil this late in the 2024 POTUS election cycle, then everything gets thrown up in the air. Chaos would descend upon the land. And, what’s worse, we STILL wouldn’t know if acting Speaker McHenry could become POTUS. And given how tense the country is, if there is some question as to if a Red Speaker of the House or a Blue Senate President Pro Temp was going to be POTUS, well, that’s a recipe for disaster. For that to happen, something really bad would have to happen, but the stakes would be so high that you know MAGA would figure out a way to force the issue one way or another.
  3. It happens later rather than sooner
    If such a horrible thing happens a lot later, but before, say, ballets are printed, then chaos would erupt. The key thing would be, such a horrible thing happening would make the 2024 Democratic Convention a sight to see because there would be a massive struggle over who the nominee would be.
  4. He lingers
    Another really bad scenario would be something happens such that the 25 Amendment has to be invoked. This horrible situation would also cause mass chaos because of how the country is tearing itself apart.
  5. It happens between Election Day and Certification Day
    The absolute worst situation would be Biden shuffles off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day. It’s happened once — as part of the election of 1872 — and the solution they used, with the dearly departed’s Electoral votes being dispersed to the living candidates doesn’t seem like a viable option in the modern era. I just don’t know what to tell you in that situation. I don’t think it would cause a civil war, but it would definitely be a “Not great, Bob,” situation.

It Definitely Seems As Though We’re Careening Towards a ‘Her’ Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though within 18 months, we may very well literally live in the world of the movie “Her,” with the world of “Ex Machina” not being far behind. The issue, of course, is are we ready for both a political crisis and a technological “Petite Singularity” happening at about the same time.

It also makes me wonder if it’s inevitable for MAGA to transition into a neo-Luddite movement. It would make a lot of sense for this to happen because a lot of the people who would be the most disrupted by a sudden lurch into the future would be, well, MAGA people.

I also think that 2024 will be the first presidential cycle whereby a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious policy issue. Of course, to get it, we’re probably going to have to have a 30% VAT and tax the economic activity of non-human actors.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what is going to happen. But I am both concerned and intrigued. A part of me believes that much like a WW3 paused a lot of consumer technological development, so, too, will the Fourth Turning / WW3. We may be so busy bombing ourselves into oblivion that we just don’t have the mental energy to do anything with AI.

But once we sort out what post WW3 world order will be, the, yeah, I could see us zooming towards some pretty cool, pretty exotic technological developments.

Contemplating My ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is looming large in my mind is the idea that by framing the future of the United States the way I do, that I’m in, in essence, making it more likely that my fears will come true.

The option that I don’t think about very much is the one advocated by “Mueller, She Wrote.” She posits that lulz, a combination of the weight of the courts and Trump losing all the time politically will somehow “save us” from ourselves. Given that I can’t predict the future, I suppose that’s a real possibilty.

It could be that that is exactly what is going to happen and I’ve been worried over nothing.

Someone on Bluesky went so far as to suggest that by me navel gazing in such a hysterical doom shit way, that I am actually making it MORE LIKELY that my fears will come true.

This has given me pause for thought.

I can’t predict the future. I just don’t know. I really don’t. I’m just extremely uneasy about the next 18 months.

Pondering Why It’s Taken Me So Fucking Long To Write My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though I have been in a VERY idyllic situation for writing my first novel, it’s still taken me far, far, far longer than it probably should have. I think some of it comes from I’m doing this in a vacuum and so all I have when it comes to how I want to write this novel is my own sense of storytelling a lot of arcane, arbitrary rules.

The ideal title for my first novel.
It would help a great deal if I had a wife or a girlfriend who could not only be my “reader” but who also might encourage me. As it stands, I have to self-motivated through a combination of anger at how no one takes me seriously and spite.

All of this is complicated by two things.

One, is, of course, my age. Even if I somehow stick the landing with this novel, I will probably be in my mid-50s before I see any sort of concrete success. If I wrote a break out hit novel that changed my life the way I feel I deserve, I will finally be in a position to settle down and have kids….just as all my peers are empty nesters with one eye on retirement.

The other complication is the fucking “Fourth Turning.” It definitely seems as though Something Bad is going to happen to the United States in late 2024, early 2025. What that “Something Bad” might be, I don’t know. But I’m working on the assumption that just as I’m ready to query my first novel in the fall of 2024, there is a good chance that there will be either a revolution or civil war in the United States that will make all of my hard work moot.

But there is also a chance that America will slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, which would help me long term, given that the point of this projected six novel series on a macro, subtextual level is me ranting about how much I fucking hate extremism in a general and MAGA specfically.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I do need to wrap this first novel up soon rather than later.

It’s Comical How Few People Take Me Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For various reasons large and small, in general, no one listens to me and no one takes me seriously. This has been a problem my entire life. But I have proven time and again that I actually do have some worth and I have surprised people by ability.

As such, it will be quite interesting what the reaction will be when I produce a third draft of this mystery-thriller that is actually…really good? There are some obvious existential problems with the novel, but I do believe that soon enough I will be within shouting distance of a novel that a literary agent might take seriously.

Or not. Who knows. I can’t help who I am. I am well aware that I can come across as a drunk crank at times. Ok, I get it. But I also know I’m a hard worker — especially if it’s something I believe in — and I’m also a good enough writer and storyteller that I have a career as a novelist ahead of me if things work out.

But I also know I’m notorious for being delusional. So, lulz. Who knows. I continue to be weary of the the fucking “Fourth Turning” and how everything could collapse starting in late 2024, early 2025.

I know I worry about this possibility way too much. But I continue to be alarmed at where the United States is going these days and it definitely seems as though we may not making it through the 2024 presidential cycle in one piece. But I can’t predict the future, so, maybe, we’ll just punt our problems down the road another four years and I will be able to query my first novel in peace.

The First Act Of The Third Draft Of My Mystery-Thriller Continues To Stabilize

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be pleased with the state of the first act of the third draft of my homage to Stieg Larsson. It’s its on thing, but I definitely want this novel and the planned series it’s meant to be the beginning of to be an old brown shoe to be people who are fans of the original Millennium series.

I’m reaching a point where I have to stop being so hard on myself and just wrap the first act up so I can get into the rest of the novel. I’m getting there, but it’s slow going. I’m feeling a little insecure because not only am I not going to live forever, but I’ve been in a rather idyllic state of affairs for way too long and something is bound to happen soon enough that changes everything.

What’s more, the issue of the so-called “Fourth Turning” starting in late 2024, early 2025 is looming large in my mind these days. My fear is just as I’m getting serious about querying, civilization will collapse or some similar bullshit. But I suppose if the most likely thing happens — which is we slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, the overarching sentiment of the series, which is how much I fucking hate MAGA, will grow far more timely.

Of course, I could find myself wrapping up the last novel in the six novel project outside of the United States as a political refugee. Ugh.

So much could still go wrong at this point. But, sometimes, you just have to believe.

Why The Good Money Is On Trump Winning Re-Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a very conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who is a part of the non-MAGA conservative base of the Republican Party. He hates Trump, even though he voted for him the second time. The last time I talked to him, he made it clear that he hates the “liberal agenda” so much that he will vote for Trump AGAIN if he wins the nomination in 2024.

Another interesting element to our discussion is how angry he still is over what happened with COVID. I keep telling him that the average person just doesn’t care anymore, but that doesn’t stop him from ranting about how the government lied and did a lot of unnecessary damage. He is very curious in the candidacy of RFK, Jr. because of this.

Just from my conversation with him, it seems clear that Trump is going to win in 2024. At least it seems so at the moment. The differences between Red and Blue have grown so extreme that people like my relative — who in the past were strong believers in traditional American democracy — now are willing to sell their birthright to a malignant fascist ding-dong like Trump just so they can “own the libs.”

As such, I think we need to start to prepare for a rather dystopian future starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that Trump is so astonishingly tyrannical starting in 2025 that the U.S. Military does the unimaginable — it steps in and deposes Trump.

Or maybe not. I just can’t predict the future. But it definitely SEEMS like we’re heading towards some rather major historic event within the next 18 months.

Is The United States A Modern Austro-Hungarian Empire….Or The Ancien Regime?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is an unsettled place at the moment. We all sense that we’re careening towards a dark future, a momentous event of some sort that would start within the next 18 months.

But there are a lot of theories about what we should compare modern American to. Some people point to the collapse of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian Empire at the end of WW1, while people like me see a closer analogy to the state of affairs with the French Ancien Regime in the days leading up to the French Revolution.

I just don’t see a comparison to the Austro-Hungarian Empire being adequate to explain what’s going on in the United States at the moment. The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed because it was a bunch of small nations fused together. The United States, meanwhile, has a very clear sense of national unified national identity that is being frayed by a combination of a growing sense of white nationalism and more economic agency for women.

I do think that we face not one, but three main possible futures starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The first, most obvious, option is we peacefully slide into some sort of MAGA-themed autocracy. About 1 million smug, wealthy liberals leave the country and there is a total re-alignment of the post WW2 liberal global order as the United States leaves NATO and South Korea and forms an alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

The second, less likely option is Biden wins and Trump, in an effort to avoid going to prison, freaks the fuck out and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce. The country implodes into civil war. WW3 happens in conjunction with this and about 1 billion people die.

The third, far less likely option is a French Revolution type situation when Trump’s tyrannical, erratic behavior grows so unbearable to enough people that there is some sort of collective uprising against MAGA. The country breaks apart, but only in conjunction with the broader effort on the part of Blues to re-unite the country under a Third Republic. All of this might happen in the context of the U.S. Military stepping in at some point, as well.

But, in general, the issue is a number of macro trends are all heading to a conclusion around the same point in the future. What’s more it’s possible that we may be heading towards something akin to a “Petite Singularity” that would involve AI eliminating an unpreceded number of jobs a very short amount of time.

All of this is, of course, very speculative. Anything can happen in the future. I totally misjudged what happend with Trump in 2020. I can’t predict the future, but that doesn’t stop me from being….alarmed.

Idle Rambling About ‘The Fourth Turning’

Mulling An American Military Junta Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is definitely hysterical doom shit on my part to suggest that the United States might find itself with a military junta starting in late 2024, early 2025. It would be the first time in our history when such a thing had happen. It goes against everything the U.S. Military believes in even do such a thing in the first place.

As such, it definitely seems as though we’re going to peacefully side into a MAGA-themed autocratic state. Not a shot fired. We just shrug and give up. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to fend for themselves.

If such an unlikely thing DID happen, I could see Gen. James “MadDog” Mattis being acting POTUS while we had a Constitutional Convention to push through some MUCH needed structural reforms to our political system.

I think that is specifically what would happen. The crisis of late 2024, early 2025 grows so dire that the there’s a coup, a military junta is established that runs the country for the specific amount of time necessary to hold a Constitutional Convention.

I have to say when that’s your best case scenario for your country, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. We can only hope that this is just yet more hysterical doom shit on my part.