Tag: The Fourth Turning

No Good Will Come Of MAGA Republican Blood Libel Against Abortion Rights

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that we are totally fucked in 2024 is the absolute insistence on the part of people like malignant ding-dong Trump that the center-Left wants to murder babies. This is not true. Everyone knows it’s not ture, and, yet, here we are with millions of rabid MAGA people wilfully believing this awful blood libel because of confirmation bias.

The Nazis never met a blood libel against the Jews they didn’t like and if you stir in some dumb Qanon ideas into the mix of what MAGA is up to, well, that’s a tragedy that writes itself.

It’s all part of a surge in some tectonic forces that are tearing the United States apart. I will again state that if the absolute worst happens in the United States, be in civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) it will be the single biggest geopolitical even in real terms since the French Revolution.

Everything will be different once everything is sorted out. Either America will be all MAGA, divided or all Blue. No matter what the outcome, there will be MILLIONS of American who will flee the re-imagined area of the United States, which will spread America ideas across the globe.

What’s more, the likelihood of World War Three increases significantly in late 2024, early 2025. The moment the United States is too distracted because it’s imploding is also the moment that a number of simmering hotspots across the globe will explode into violence — some of it nuclear tipped.

And MAGA’s Blood Libel against, well, people like me, is the tip of the spear of some potentially astonishing geopolitical events. There are any number of pretty fucking dark scenarios to contemplate if we don’t manage to just punt things down the road another four years.

I just don’t know what to expect. I just can’t predict the future. But things like the MAGA Blood Libel against people who support abortion rights is extremely alarming!

American Killing Fields? I’m Worried About Blue Cities In Red States Should A Second American Civil War Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve noticed is a certain level of clueless, oblivious naivete on the part of some people who should know better when it comes to what a Second American Civil War might be like.

I’m working on the assumption that if there is an actual 2ACW, it will be because Trump loses in 2024 and, in a desperate attempt to evade prison and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce and, lo and behold, states like Texas take him up on the idea.

There is a far small chance of a Blue “Resistance Revolution” if Trump wins and is incoming agenda is just too radical for Blues, but I have serious doubts that Blues, by nature, would have it in them to do such a thing.

But the issue is that any National Divorce would lead to a 2ACW because of how Purple the country is, in general. A lot of Red States have a dollop of Blue in them in the guise of their major cities. As such, if a state like Texas or Tennessee secedes, their Blue Cities will probably be the site of some serious fucking flashpoints.

There is a real risk that America will go all Cambodia on itself, with the rural areas of the country rising up and emptying the cities to establish American Killing Fields. Or something, something gruesome like that.

Way too many members of the nattering nabobs of negativism have STILL yet to come to grips with how dark our future is. American politics are collapsing before our very eyes and once we finally reach the Singularity — we’re probably going to fight it out in the real world with real weapons, instead of just being fucking keyboard warriors.

And, remember, once you crack the egg of civil war or revolution, things usually get out of control –just as the French. Once MAGA finally goes septic, loudmouth cranks like me will be right behind Jewish people when it comes to being packed up and sent to a weaponized ICE camps.

The main thing to remember is the United States is a lot less stable, in general, than we would like to think. It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the most significant election in American history since 1860. The only thing that spared us the symmetry of 2020 being it is, well, Mike Pence decided to destroy his political career by doing what he was supposed to.

But the issue remains –we are careening towards a potentially catastrophic near future. I, of course, can’t predict the future, so there is always a chance that some how, some way, we’ll do what we did in 2020 and find some sort of “third way” that allows us to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so it could be one of those things where we just don’t know what is going to happen…until it happen.

Biden’s Impeachment As ‘Benghazi 2.0’ — The Lead Up To Autocracy or Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The whole point of the Biden “impeach inquiry” on the part of House Republicans (and Trump) is simply to create some for of false moral equivalence between Biden and Trump on election day. Either people will not vote or the calculous they use to vote will be so fucked up from a shame impeachment of Biden that Trump wins.

We have to begin to accept that we’re careening towards the most decisive presidential election in American history since 1860. At the moment, barring something none of us can predict, Trump is going to win in 2024 — or we have a civil war.

There is, of course, a very small chance that we might have a “Blue Revolution” if Trump wins, but I doubt it. Smug Twitter Liberals already have one foot out the door with second passports, so lulz, they’re going to be too busy relocating to the south of France to help Poors like us.

Eat the rich.

Anyway, as I keep saying, you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen to the United States. Once Trump is president again, America is going to have a very Germany 1933 vibe to it. I don’t think there’s going to be anything stopping MAGA’s consolidation of power in 2025 if Trump wins.

That will be that. Trump will be the transitional figure between us being in an anocracy and an autocracy. America will leave NATO and South Korea and the entire post-WW2 global order will be thrown up in the air. Russia will win its war of aggression against Ukraine and the already existent ICE camp infrastructure will be weaponized.

In 20 years — or less– Americans will wake up and wonder why we’re invading Canada to save it from “the woke mind virus.”

If Trump doesn’t win, meanwhile, we have a civil war. Or come close to one. The deep echo of the first civil war is alive and well in the South and, as such Texas will leave the Union and that will set off a cascading series of events with no obvious endgame.

And, of course, there will probably be WW3 as all of that is happening.

Good luck. You’ll need it.

The Extremely Dumb Rationale Behind The House Republicans ‘Impeachment Inquiry’ of Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any discussion of what’s going on with House Republicans being hell bent to simply be able to use the word “impeachment” a lot when it comes to Biden has to first remember how the first impeachment in American history went down. As I recall, Radical Republicans were so angry at Andrew Johnson that they impeached him without even knowing why they they were doing it.

They just wrote in the articles later.

So, here we are, with it seeming as though the United States is either going to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have some sort of secessionist crisis at some point in the near future. At the moment, it definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a crucial moment in American history, where we decide our form of government for generations to come.

Anyway, it seems as though in some respects, the “impeachment inquiry” against Biden is happening for several reasons. One reason is sheer spite — House Republicans want to strike back at Biden for Trump being a criminal. They also want to both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is being impeached and thus can’t be re-elected while at the same time poo-pooing the idea that Trump has been impeached twice.

“It happens to every president these days,” is what they want people to think.

Also, remember, this is white knuckled power politics. House Republicans simply want cover for using the word “impeachment” on Fox News, in hopes that all that white noise bullshit will lodge itself into the minds of low information voters in five swing states and be 2024’s “Benghazi.” At the moment, they don’t even have the votes to actually launch an impeachment inquiry, much less actually impeach Biden.

But, lulz, they’re going to do it anyway because they can say “the only way we can find the truth is with an impeachment inquiry.” It’s a similar logic to how Republicans vote against popular programs, then take the credit for them when they are implemented in their districts.

It’s a win-win: they get to tell Red voters that they voted against big government spending and they get to take credit for popular programs in the minds of Blues and independents.

I do find it curious that Republicans are so dumb and ill-focused that they didn’t decide to impeach Biden for the “border crisis” or any number of actual problems in the country, rather than nebulous bullshit involving Biden and his son. It’s all very strange to me.

But, regardless, we have to accept that what’s going on in the House is ping for a not-so-distant future where we either are no longer a democracy, or our political system finally collapses into real world political violence. I hate violence, but I would suggest you get ready.

MTG Keeps Proving My Theory Of The Case About The Nature Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future, but I have for years now written about how I believe if there is an actual civil war, it won’t be some sort of mass freak out by AR-15 toting MAGA morons. It’s going to be a proper old school civil war with a secession crisis and the whole she-bang.

Just look at this tweet by Marjorie Taylor Greene:

The above words definitely seem to indicate that Republicans have secession on the brain if they don’t get what they want. And I still think that if there is a Secession Crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because Trump loses that Texas will be the first state to call up a secessionist convention.

Though I suppose it’s possible that Texas might defer to South Carolina out of a sense of historical symmetry. Of course, given the large African American population in South Carolina secession MIGHT be a hard sell in that state, even though apparently most of the Republicans in that state think “the South Shall Rise Again.”

But we’re still too far out — I just don’t know the specifics of any so-called “Fourth Turning.” The issue I just can’t predict is how serious Republicans are about leave the Union in a National Divorce if Trump doesn’t win. It could be all talk, even if Trump is going to be ranting at the top of his lungs that there should be a National Divorce so he doesn’t have to go to prison.

All I can tell you is — any National Divorce or subsequent 2ACW is going to be very, very, very messy and will probably prompt World War 3 while it’s at it. Hold on tight, things might be bumpy starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Republicans Painting Democrats as ‘Baby Killers’ May Lead To Severe, Dark Consequences

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something very alarming is beginning to become a mainstream tenant of faith for Republicans — the idea that Democrats are “baby killers.” Republicans probably are doing this at the moment just because it’s a convenient way to juice the base and appeal to low information voters, but long term, oh fucking boy.

The notion that Democrats as a group advocate murdering babies is just the type of dehumanizing tactic that might lead to God-only-knows-what at some point in the future. It’s very similar, of course, to the Blood Libel that the Nazis committed against the Jews.

Do I think things might get that bad? I guess…not? I just don’t know. I can’t game things out that much. But it’s definitely a “Not great, Bob,” type of situation when you have a major political party in a failing democracy accusing the membership of its rivals of something so heinous.

My fear is, of course, that MAGA will go septic and the next thing you know, MAGA Republicans will be in power again and they’ll start rounding up center-Left people in the name of “saving babies.”

Shiver. What a dark and tragically possible future.

Things Are Beginning To Work Out With This Novel (At Least The First ~30,000 Words)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s amazing insight you can get when all you do is dwell on something. I’ve managed to figure out a way how to seamlessly add 20,000 – 30,000 words to the beginning of this novel.

My fear is of course, that the first thing any manuscript consultant will demand is I….cut those exact words from the novel.

AND YET, there is definitely a point to those additional words. I have managed to not only flesh out some elements of character and the world I’m working with, but also introduce characters in a more methodical manner. I don’t just throw everything at you all at once.

I’m really hoping that all this hard work will help me with the novel novel in the series. I am well aware that we’re careening towards The Fourth Turning in late 2024, early 2025, and, yet, I find something poetic about going into such a potentially dramatic moment in our nation’s history with my eyes wide open as I finish a novel.

Anyway, in general, things are going well with the third draft of the novel. It is, in general, a richer, more compelling story than the second draft. I’ve definitely taken some risks, but lulz, no one ever got anywhere in this world without taking a risk.

Only time will tell.

America May Destroy Itself Over ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear from talking to my conservative relatives that the thing at very absolute forefront of their minds isn’t policy — it’s vibes. They usually don’t know why they’re angry, just that they are. This “vibe” anger is so potent that most of the country thinks we’re in a recession when we are not, in fact, in a recession.

As such, I don’t know how much credence I give to people who think that we can only have a civil war / revolution if there is some sort of economic element to it. Even though abortion is definitely an economic issue, I think civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) could happen just because of vibes.

This “vibe” civil war / revolution we’re careening towards appears in all sorts of ways. One conspicuous way this expresses itself is when MAGA people online say the most ridiculous things about Trump — things they do not, in fact, believe — just so they can “own the libs” and do some virtue signalling to their fellow MAGA cult members.

So dumb.
This particular dumb technique on the part of MAGA cocksuckers really has become rather absurd. It’s totally bonkers and dumb. It’s one of those things, though, that makes me very uneasy.

Given a few more months to marinate and the passions of a presidential election, it definitely seems as though “vibes” will be enough to ultimately destroy the United States — or at least put in it a very precarious position while we figure out if we’re going to become a MAGA autocracy or a have a civil war / revolution.

A Populist Recipe For Disaster

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to grow alarmed with how otherwise normal, sane people have bought into the populist bullshit that ding-dong Trump keeps pushing. A growing number of people have serious misgivings about the honesty of “the elites” to the point that they are willing to vote for a fucking fascist like Trump.

It definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very, very, very dark situation in late 2024, early 2025. Of course, there is always a possibility that we’ll find some sort of “third way” or off ramp before things get as bad as I fear, but, lulz, I doubt it.

Some severe macro forces are a play at the moment. While I still believe The Fourth Turning is nothing more than astrology for dudes, I do think the idea that some sort of catastrophic event may occur around 2025 has some merit to it. All signs point to a massive clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025 because we just can’t keep punting our problems down the road any more.

It’s officially put up or shut up time.

Any major change in America’s political system will cause a series of cascading events that will probably lead to WW3. It doesn’t matter if we turn into an inward looking autocracy of blood and soil or if we have some sort of civil war / revolution — if the United States is distracted, then the entire post WW2 global order will be at risk.

There doesn’t seem to be any way to stop it all. We just have to prepare for something dramatic to happen in less than two years. Whatever it is that happens, I think will mark the end of the silly “woke” era that we’ve been living in. It’s difficult to get too up set over the misuse of pronouns when you’re hiding from ICE agents or dodging missiles.

But we’ll see, I suppose.

It’s The Culture Wars, Stupid

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Back in the 1990s, Bill Clinton’s team was famous for saying, “It’s The Economy, Stupid.” Well, lulz, these days, we can’t even agree if the economy is doing well, even when the facts indicate that it is, in fact, doing well. We’re so divided that MAGA Republicans want to will us into a recession because of “vibes.”

This is why someone who might otherwise stand out, like Nikki Haley, can’t get any traction. She came out swinging at the most recent debate, basing her campaign on such quaint issues like “spending.”

No one — especially MAGA Republicans — give a shit about “spending” when there are libs to be owned.

The absolute core, the central tenant of MAGA is owning the libs. MAGA just does not give a fuck about any policy agenda at all other than strangling the “woke cancel culture mob.” MAGA lives in a post-truth, post-policy universe. And, what’s more, the whole thing is a cult of personality around Trump so good luck managing to pry any support away from the malignant ding-dong that is Donald Trump.

The closer we get to the 2024 election, the more my so-called “hysterical doom shit” doesn’t seem so far off. The die is cast, the lines are drawn. There is no center and, baring some “third way” I simply can’t predict at the moment, we’re either going to slide peacefully into autocracy, or we’re going to have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

But I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, anything is possible. Yet I am very worried. Election 2024 is shaping up to potentially be the most historic election since 1860. Republicans, by definition, are fascists and want to establish an autocracy.

If they don’t get that, then they may start a civil war. And if they do get it, there’s a minor possibility that Blues will do some sort of “Resistance Revolution.”

I hate violence, so I want none of it, but it’s definitely something to think about.