Tag: The Fourth Turning

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is while it’s happening, there is no narrative. As such, if you were living through, say, World War 2, the whole thing was value free. No one had any idea how, exactly, it was going to end. It was only, in hindsight, that we realized how obvious it was that the Nazis would be defeated.

I keep thinking about this as we careening towards late 2024, early 2025 when something akin to so-called Fourth Turning may occur. It seems to me at the moment that we’re just going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Smug, wealthy Blues who would otherwise be the leadership in any effort to do something about America’s transition into autocracy will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that the two other scenarios might happen. It could be that either we have a civil war when Trump somehow manages to lose, or w revolution if Blues balk at our transition into an autocracy.

But remember, no one can predict the future. While it’s easy for center-Left people like me to think that we could solve all our problems by defeating MAGA on the battlefield, I hate violence and there’s no assurance that we, the Good Guys, will ultimately win.

So, it’s just as possible that Reds will successfully establish Trumplandia or any attempt at a Blue Revolution will fail and allow the consolidation of MAGA power as it is that we get to have the “cool stuff” associated with a Second Reconstruction.

All I can tell you is I will be astonished if we somehow, some way, manage to punt our structural problems down the road another four years. It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

A Lazy Review of ‘Oppenheimer’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I almost didn’t go see Oppenheimer because I felt I knew enough of what happened in the movie from Tik-Tok videos that I didn’t need to. But I felt compelled to see it and I’m really glad that I did.

My key takeaway from the movie was that Christopher Nolan wanted to keep the audience off kilter in an effort to reflect what happened in real life with Oppenheimer. There were some pretty big twists in the confirmation plot line that I just didn’t see coming.

And, what’s more, the issue of if the United States should have dropped the A-Bomb was another interesting moral conundrum. It’s kind of sad that the dropping of the A-Bomb is one of a number of loaded historical issues that is almost impossible to talk about honestly without risking being “canceled.”

Anyway, in general, I really liked the movie. It is definitely a “dude” film in that it deals with “dude stuff.” I’m not suggesting women won’t like it or that women can’t do “dude stuff,” just that the audience for the film is obvious men who want to see other men do “dude stuff.”

The seemingly ever-growing number of issues that are taboo to even broach in our “woke” modern world is enough to make one just want to lie in bed and stare at the ceiling. I still think, though, that it’s at least possible that the existential nature of so-called Fourth Turning may cause all our notions of “woke” discourse to seem rather quaint.

A Subtle Shift

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a political basis, I’m very much the red headed step child of my family. A quirk of my personal history has led me to be far more liberal than my immediate family. I love my relatives dearly, but it’s jarring that people so close to me could have such different political views from me.

It’s so bad that I often think that my personal life would be much, much better if I sold my soul to fascism and became MAGA. It really would improve my personal interactions a great deal.

But, alas, that’s not going to happen.

I bring all of this up because I had of my occasional in-depth political discussions with one of my MAGA-adjacent relatives and I was taken aback by the subtle shift in their political sentiment.

They have been really big DeSantis supporters in the past, but it definitely seems as though they have resigned themselves to Trump being the nominee. What’s more, they were not as quick to dismiss my “hysterical doom shit” about the possibility of a National Divorce if Trump should somehow magical not win the 2024.

My relative inhabits that tiny political sliver of people who are traditional conservatives who really like Trump’s policies, but aren’t willing to look past the issue of electability. This relative desperately wants to win so the “woke cancel culture mob” can be destroyed once and for all.

They don’t think Trump can win. I, of course, think that Trump is 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from winning. But I do think that the subtle shift in my relative’s political views are indicative of broader forces at work within the Republican Party.

Something is shifting, but what the ultimate consequences of that shift might be, I don’t know.

I’m Growing Worried Trump May Freak Out When He’s Booked In Georgia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I learn about what ding-dong Trump is going to go through when he is booked in Georgia this week, the more alarmed I grow. Trump is already crazy enough as it is, there is a chance that when he sees first hand how bad the conditions are in jail while he waits to get booked that he might freak the fuck out.

I don’t think we appreciate how bonkers Trump could go between now and Election Day 2024. His natural instinct is to lash out whenever he feels trapped and my concern is he might begin to grow ever more transactional to the point that he’s directly telling his followers what he wants them to do to protect him on a personal basis.

The thing about Trump is, you just never know what that fucking crazed idiot is going to do. That, in a sense, is his power. Because you never quite know what to expect, your natural inclination is to assume the absolute worst.

Remember, Trump is an avatar, a vessel for broader problems in the American political system. As such, as I’ve mentioned numerous times before, we have to take seriously a scenario whereby Trump personally is responsible for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 if he should somehow, magically manage to actually lose the 2024 election.

The stage is already set. The two sides so hate and misunderstand each other at this point that I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election cycle in one piece. There is a real risk that no matter who wins the election, one side or the other is going to feel they will have to take matters into their own hands because they can no longer get what they want peacefully through political means.

I don’t know what that means, but I do have my uneasy suspicions. It definitely seems possible that if Trump loses in 2024 — which I don’t think will happen — he will throw down the gauntlet and demand a National Divorce specifically to keep myself out of prison.

But, who knows. I sure as hell don’t.

A Ping From A Dark Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, you see something on social media that makes you sit up and take notice. I saw this on “X” today and was alarmed.


The reason why it alarms me is this type of thinking just the sort of thing that would make America ripe for a “National Divorce” if Trump loses in 2024 and begins to rant Reds have to leave the Union once and for all. The logic is there already, you just need to add the passions of the a presidential election to produce a Secessionist Crisis.

And, yet, who knows? A lot can happen between now and late 2024, early 2025.

At This Point, The Only Unknown Is How Severe The Political Crisis In Late 2024, Early 2025 Will Be

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was shocked in 2020 when history managed to pull a fast one on me and came up with a Third Way. In the years leading up to the 2020 election, I could never have predicted that not only would we have a pandemic, but Trump would be too dumb and lazy to do some pretty basic autocratic moves to stay in power.

As we approach 2024, the key thing we all have to remember is because of the Electoral College, the fascist nature of the Republican Party is obscured. It’s just not readily obvious what’s going on — the Republican Party is a fascist party, while the Democratic Party is a hodge-podge of center-Left pro-democracy special interest groups.

Because of the ebb and flow of politics and history, it’s inevitable that the fucking MAGA Nazi fascists of the Republican Party will gain power again. The only unknown at this point is if it will be deranged ding-dong Trump would tries to transition us into autocracy, or if it will be a younger, more focused and polished fascist who does it.

So, really, it seems as though the only known unknown of 2024 is how bad things will get. Will we just peacefully transition into a MAGA autocracy, or will we have some sort of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.) The third option — that of us just punting our structural problems down the road another four years, just doesn’t seem all that viable.

The United States is a lot less stable than one might think and at this point it seems like just an issue of which side, Left or Right, feels that they can’t stand the current political arrangement.

I no longer think Blues will leave the Union if it comes to that,but rather do something a lot closer to a revolution. My gut tells me that Blues, because they don’t have the deep historical echo of the Civil War in their collective political race memory, would rather reimagine the United States than leave it — hence a revolution.

But who knows. I sure as hell don’t.

Trump Would Rather Start A Civil War Than Go To Prison

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue to remember is no one is going to save us. Even if Trump is magically politically neutralized, the Republican Party is fascist and our side into autocracy will continue with or without him.

I hear a lot of chatter about how Trump may be able to win the Republican nomination, but he can’t win the general. Given that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five states away from winning in 2024, I have my doubts about any theory of the case that doesn’t take his potential victory seriously.

But as I keep say, Trump losing is kind of besides the point. The issue is not so much Trump losing as it is what his response to losing might be. You thought 2020 was bad, just wait until bonkers Trump realizes that he could very well die in prison now that he’s lost the 2024 election. It’s very easy to imagine him not only saying some pretty fucking unhinged stuff, but also going transactional — as in, him telling Red States to leave the Union.

Let me be clear — at the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win outright — or steal the election in some way — and we’ll just slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy because smug Twitter liberals will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But if Trump does somehow magically manage to lose the 2024 election, the risk of a Second American Civil War increases significantly. The scenario I keep thinking about is Trump grows increasingly unhinged at the prospect of going to prison and states like Texas and South Carolina begin to take him up on his demands that Red States leave the Union to save his sorry ass.

That seems like a very real possibility at the moment. I say this because a number of Red State Republican Parties are, on a systemic basis, so fascist and so beholden to Trump that anything — including a secession crisis — is possible in late 2024, early 2025.

What makes this scenario so alarming is any National Divorce (Second American Civil War) would directly lead to WW3 breaking out, not to mention the DPRK potentially lobing a few H-bombs our way for good measure. Anyway, not only can I not predict the future, I’m always wrong.

Good luck.

Trump Is Going To Demand A Constitutional Convention In His ‘Blood & Soil’ Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future — no one can — but it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win in 2024. And when he does, he will go full-bore autocrat. The person we need to keep an eye on is who is veep ultimately ends up being. But let’s talk about the big issue of Trump’s second term — a Constitutional Convention.

Now, Trump is so dumb and has such a poor grasp of abstract legal concepts that he might not even want a Constitutional Convention. He may just say that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because he “deserves it.” Given the mass chaos that will be going on anyway at this point, there may come a point that Trump is pressured into at least accepting the calling up a Constitutional Convention to do his bidding.

Now, there is a pretty big known unknown to all of this and that is, during the transition into a MAGA-themed autocracy, is it at all possible that some sort of “Resistance Revolution” might take place that would aim to prevent Trump from turning the United States into a Russia clone in the first place. This is a huge mystery to me.

I just don’t know.

I seriously doubt it, but as I keep saying, you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once. So, it’s at least possible that as part of the passions of the day, something akin to a “Resistance Revolution” does, in fact, take place.

But back to the Constitutional Convention.

Given how existential a Constitutional Convention would be, the whole thing would definitely be a put-up-or-shut-up moment for any American who believes in democracy. I still believe that the people who would otherwise lead any sort of “Resistance Revolution” will be too busy fleeing the country to do anything about a MAGA-led Constitutional Convention.

As such, the Constitutional Convention is held, people shrug and it proceeds to staple some sort of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts onto the Constitution. Trump gets to stay in office forever (or some such) and we all wake up in 20 years and wonder why we’re invading Canada to free it from the “woke cancel culture mob.”

I wish I was kidding.

The Thing I Can’t Game Out About Late 2024 – Early 2025.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is one known unknown that I just can’t predict when it comes to what might happen in late 2024 – early 2025. And that is, of course, the issue of how far the two sides are willing to take things if they don’t get what they want. On paper, there definitely seems to be a greater-than-zero sum chance that we’re either going to have a civil war or a revolution.

So, I just don’t know. I just don’t know if all my “hysterical doom shit” about civil or revolution has any basis in what might actually happen. At the moment, it definitely seems bonkers to even suggest that a nation like the United States might buckle and collapse into civil war or revolution.

And, for the moment, I honestly have no way of knowing one way or another if my fears are right. But from my reading about the Antebellum period of the late 1850s, there are definitely a lot of similar macro trends taking place these days that suggestion that Something Bad is at least possible.

But, at the moment, it really could be that I’m getting myself worked up for no reason. We could just punt our problems down the road another four years, or we could slide peacefully into autocracy.

I just don’t know.

Donald Trump Needs To Go To Jail (But)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump continues to bend the very fabric of America society, politics and law to his idiotic, asinine will. For my part, I’m just pleased that Trump has found himself in a shit ton of legal trouble, even if politically he’s still riding high. I continue to believe America has, on a macro sale, given up. We’re careening towards a historic, existential choice in 2024 one that will either see us turn into an autocracy or have a civil war / revolution.

I know that sounds like hysterical doom shit, but I struggle to imagine how we manage to punt some severe, structural problems down the road another four years. But, I suppose, it’s possible.

I do find myself thinking a lot these days about what would happen Trump was thrown in jail for violating the terms of his release while awaiting trial. On one hand, doing so would finally force some accountability on ding-dong Trump. On the other, however, I fear that doing so would only give Trump even more political momentum.

It’s a very tricky situation with no ready answer.

And it all plays into what a dire situation we find ourselves in as a nation. I continue to contemplate how likely it is we may have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) depending on who wins the 2024 election. At the moment, it seems we’re just going to slip peaceful into a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

But 2024 is still too far out. There some basic things we just don’t know. We don’t know who the two nominees will be and we don’t know how far along the numerous Trump trials will be as we’re heading to the polls. And, what’s more, we also don’t know things like how the economy or Biden’s age might factor in.

So, it seems as though we’re just going to have to wait and see. There’s no much we can do but just wait to see if my worst fears come true, or if we somehow manage to avoid them.