Tag: The Fourth Turning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a strong believer in no fate but what we make so I suppose it’s at least possible that someway, somehow, America is going to manage to punt some pretty severe structural problems down the road another four years. But I have my doubts.

The reason I have my doubts is the bolt continue to pop off the United States at an alarming rate. It definitely seems as though the passions of the 2024 election will simply be too much stress on the system and everything will collapse — either by us becoming a Russian-style autocracy or by us having a revolution / civil war.

I am well aware that such talk sounds like “hysterical doom shit” but there is one metric that alarms me to no end and that’s how radical and fascist the Republican Party is now on a structural basis. So, it’s not a repeat of January 6th we have to worry about it’s fucking Republican states leaving the Union if Trump doesn’t win.

Of course, on the other end of the spectrum, there is at least a possibility of something akin to a coup or revolution if Trump wins (or steals the election.) But I have serious doubts about the gumption of Blues in that regard. It’s just not in the nature of Blues to do something so dramatic. What’s more likely to happen is about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will simply decamp to Europe — or wherever.

As such, given that Trump is 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again….we’re pretty much fucked. Barring something I can’t predict, Trump will become president and he will turn us into a Russian-style autocracy based on the concept of blood and soil.

And, if we’re really unlucky, MAGA Republicans will transition into Nazis Republicans and….oh boy. Millions upon millions of people will be at risk of dying in camps. I know how hysterical that sounds, but once we cross the Rubicon into autocracy, the dynamics of the country will change rather dramatically.

The logical conclusion of MAGA will be to weaponize the existing ICE camp system and begin to eliminate whomever the Qanon freaks believe should be gotten rid of.

I hope I’ve got this one wrong, I really do. Only time will tell, I suppose.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The moment I heard about the January 6th charges against Trump, I knew what his defense would be — that he honestly believed the bullshit he was peddling. And, sure enough, that seems to be the consensus as to what Trump’s defense will, in fact, be.

And, as such, we’re probably going to spend way, way, way too much time debating the nature of Trump’s delusion just as we’re also debating the fact that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.

This all reminds me of how Trump is an avatar for severe, existential rot within our democracy. That rot is so severe that we will face an existential choice in 2024 — autocracy or civil war / revolution (depending on who wins.)

At the moment, the historical momentum for Trump to win and for the United States to become an “illiberal democracy” like Russia is so powerful as to be nearly immutable. The question is, of course, will Blues do anything when we come to the precipice.

I just don’t see smug Twitter liberals having the gumption to put up any fight on the matter. They’re just going to flee the country and the United States will circle the drain into autocracy.

So. So long and thanks for all the fish, guys. If you have the means to leave the country, I suggest you do so. Trump is delusional and yet he’s probably still going to become president again.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue facing us is there are macro, structural issues swirling around us that we have no control over. Everything looks like it’s going to come to a head in late 2024, early 2025. I say this because the last time we had significant political violence, it was sparked by the presidential election of 1860. So, at the moment, at least, it definitely seems as though the election of 2024 Could Be It.

Or not.

I continue to struggle with the idea that we’ve crossed the Rubicon to the point that the two sides hate each other in the real world to the point that they would take up arms to prove their point. But the key issue for me is not just how radical Trump’s second term agenda is, but how unlikely he is to accept defeat should that happen to occur.

It’s one of those things where you just can’t predict things one way or another. All the conditions are there for revolution or civil war, and, yet, either one of those outcomes for the 2024 election seems rather fantastical at the moment. It just doesn’t seem possible that an otherwise stable hyperpower like the United States would suddenly and abruptly — and wilfully — go tits up because of “vibes.”

And, yet, here we are.

You really could make a case either way. It could be that all of this is just more of my usual “hysterical doom shit” and it could be that I’m being rather prescient. At the moment, even I think we’re either going to punt our problems down the road another four years or we’re just going to slide peacefully into autocracy.

But there is a greater-than-zero sum chance that all hell will break loose. I think this because on a structural basis, the Republican Party has begun to believe its own bullshit to the point that they are prepared to start a civil war if Trump doesn’t manage to win in 2024. The only unknown is if they’re actually prepared to pull the trigger on a “National Divorce” in the real world and not just their usual online mental masturbation.

At the moment, now in the summer of 2023, it really could go either way. I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once for a reason. So, for the time being, we’re just going to wait and see, I guess.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want any sign of the fascist rot at the core of the Republican Party, look no further than Vivek Ramaswamy. He says shit that is so totally fucking bonkers with a straight face that gives one pause for thought. From what I tell from what I’ve heard of him talking about his campaign, Ramaswamy is running to the Right of Trump.

And he seems so blase and cheerful about his fascist inclinations. He keeps talking about how he wants “move forward.” But forward into what? It definitely seems that with all of this talk of requiring military service to for young people to vote that he wants to move us forward into a fascist state.

What’s more, Ramaswamy comes across as something of a joke because, like a little puppy dog, he refuses to say anything critical of Trump, even as he’s trying to defeat him for the nomination. It’s all very curious.

The Ramaswamy campaign shows how totally fucked we are. The Republican Party is pretty brazen in how fascist it is at the moment and, because of macro trends, it shows no signs of coming to its senses. This is it — either we have a civil war / revolution and somehow win it and destroy the Republican Party as we currently know it, or we turn into a Russian-style autocracy.

It definitely seems, at the moment, that this an immutable fact of our immediate future.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing I’ve noticed from people on both the Left and the Right when it comes to Trump is an odd sense that somehow if we just “hope” enough that he won’t come back in 2024. The thing about Trump is he’s an avatar for deep-seated structural problems in our political system.

As such, barring something spectacular, Trump has a better-than-even chance of being elected president again in 2024. Much like how there came a point when there was a certain inevitability to the fall of Rome, so, too, is America careening towards autocracy on a macro level.

This is a historical Big Idea the likes of which we haven’t faced since 1860. And, at the moment, I think we’re just going to peacefully slide into autocracy. There is, of course, a chance that there be a spectrum when it comes to violence from none to a civil war / revolution, but I’m not convinced that either side has it in them to actually pull the trigger one violence.

Sure, there will be a lot of talk about it no matter what happens in 2024, but now, in August 2023, there just doesn’t seem to be the gumption on either side to risk life-or-death violence on the scale necessary to either start a civil war (National Divorce) or to some sort of Resistance Revolution.

At least, I hope I’m right. Both a Red Civil War or a Resistance Revolution would be a massive fucking clusterfuck on an astonishing scale that would, by definition, prompt World War Three and potentially the DPRK lobbing a few h-bombs our way.

So, in a sense, these months before Election Day 2024 are kind of the quiet before the storm. A decision of some sort is going to be made about the nature of America one way or another. I struggle to believe that we’re going to find some sort of Third Way like we did in 2020 that allows us to punt some severe political problems down the road another four years.

The era of hope is over. The era of preparation has begun.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for either a civil war or revolution starting in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, there is one remaining unknown that I simply can’t game out — have we reached the point where severe political violence might actually break out?

This is something I think a lot about because the case could be made that for all the bolts popping off the country at the moment, people on either the Left or the Right just aren’t prepared to risk their lives for what they believe in. It could very well be that when the time comes we’ll either slip into autocracy or we’ll manage to punt that shift down the road for another four years peacefully. Either one of those options is a viable possibility at this point.

And, yet, I worry.

I worry not so much that there might be another January 6th-type incident if Trump loses so much as, on a more systemic basis, state-level Republican Parties might begin to pull states out of the Union if it happens. This is how we might have a civil war. Even though on a individual basis MAGA people may not be willing to die for the cause, institutions controlled by Republicans are willing to initiate a National Divorce because they’re fucking snowflake crybabies.

Now, the other option is Trump wins in 2024 and his incoming agenda is so radical that the Left, rather than demanding a National Divorce, will do something more along the lines of a revolution. This would involve powerful officials across the country balking at Trump becoming president again and that, unto itself, will prompt political violence.

There is the risk, of course, that any such attempt at a “Glorious Revolution” will fail and only allow Trump to consolidate power quicker. Something like this happened in Turkey a few years ago, leaving it an autocracy.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win in 2024, we peacefully slip into autocracy and that’s that. I just don’t see smug Twitter liberals having the guts to risk their lives and sacred honor in the real world to do anything about Trump’s second term — no matter how radical it may be.

Trump wins and at some point after 2025 he demands a Constitutional Convention to codify MAGA into law and that, as they say, will be that. We’ll drift towards a Russian-style autocracy and we’ll wake up in about 20 years wondering why we’re invading Canada.

We’ll pull out of NATO, with draw the tripwire from South Korea and maybe even align with Russia, Turkey and Hungary. This is a very real possibility if Trump wins in 2024. And, at the moment, Trump is 60,000 votes in five swing states away from that very victory.

What’s more, Biden is old and fuck and that also adds a distressing level of uncertainty to what happens between now and Certification Day 2025. I worry about that particular situation a lot more than you might think.

I think, at the moment, that Trump is going to win in 2024. On a macro level, at least, that seems our fate. Good luck.