Tag: The Fourth Turning

Tiny D is Such A Fucking Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Ron DeSantis is he will be an American Putin if he is elected POTUS. I say this because the Republican Party is a fascist party now and, by definition, our next Republican president will be an American Autocrat. And there really isn’t much we can do about it unless there’s something along the lines of a Resistance Revolution.

The great irony is, of course, that ding-dong Trump is so stupid, so lazy that he simply was not able to do what he was originally elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat. Trump is well on his way to getting another shot at being an autocrat and this time, in 2024 – 2025, he’s probably going to be successful. There is, of course, a greater-than-zero chance that, like I said, there will be something akin to a revolution (Blues) or a civil war (Reds) no matter what happens in 2024.

But let’s get back to Tiny D, who tweeted this:

The hissy fit that fucking fascists like Ron DeSantis have over ESG is as stereotypical as it is depressing. Tiny D’s attack on ESG is a prime example of how we’re careening into fascism. There’s no going back. And the only way we don’t slide into autocracy be it through President DeSantis or Ding-Dong Trump, is something akin to a revolution.

And I hate violence. So, lulz, I would prefer we just slide peacefully into fascism that have any sort of violence. But the key issue that I have to accept if we go that path is things are going to get personal — ICE agents will be weaponized and either I get rounded up and put into a Trump-branded camp or just get a bullet in the back of the head.

I say this because I’ve really had the luxury of living in the Western liberal democracy. And when that is no longer the case, I’m not going to change my behavior — I’m never going to shut up.

Where’s Our Vibe Shift?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that culture could change a lot just within the course of one decade. As late as the 1980s, early 80s was very different than mid or late 80s. And, yet, it definitely seems as though since 2001, cultural shifts haven’t happened as rapidly.

I’m old enough that if I look back over the last 20 years, I struggle to see how there has been any sort of major vibe shift. Yes, there have been blips of change here and there since 2001, but, in general any cultural changes have been rather subtle.

At some point over the last 20 years, something changed.

Could it have been the advent of social media because of the smartphone? Is that what caused everything to change? It’s all very curious. Or is it possible that we’re really, really overdue for a severe vibe shift.

And as such, maybe 2024 really is it?

Could it be that because of both the Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning may happen at the same time in late 2024, early 2025 that, unto itself, could be the Vibe Shift that we’ve all been expecting. Maybe?

But it is very curious. Someone should write a 10,000 word New Yorker piece about this shit.

2023: The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This year, 2023, is really beginning to have a “quiet before the storm” vibe to it. The signs are everywhere that our political system is collapsing before our very eyes to the point that I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the passions of the 2024 election.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. We’re either going to turn into an autocracy when Trump wins or he wins and we have a “Resistance Revolution” in response. Or he loses and he demands a civil war. There just doesn’t seem to be any “Third Way” that allow us to punt some severe, macro problems down the road another four years.

I saw someone today that really alarmed me — he definitely looked like someone who would murder me in cold blood in late 2024, early 2025 if the country collapses into anarchy because there’s either a civil war going on because Trump has lost or a Resistance Revolution going on because he’s won and Blues have managed to stop sucking their own cocks long enough to actually fight back. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

And, yet, I said the same sort of shit about 2020 and….nothing happened other than the January 6th Insurrection. And, I’m always, always wrong. So…maybe somehow, someway we will manage to eek through 2024 without either turning into an autocracy or having a revolution / civil war? Maybe?

It will definitely be interesting to see one way or another.

If Trump Doesn’t Win In 2024, He’s Going To Start A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that Republicans are wilfully oblivious about is not only is Trump going to be the nominee, but if he does lose in 2024, he’s going to single-handedly start a civil war. And if he wins, he may cause a Blue revolt that will be marketed as a “Resistance Revolution.”

The point is — 2024 is it. It’s the year a lot of macro trends come a head, just as the pseudo-science book The Fourth Turning predicts. And, at the moment, it seems like Trump is going win in 2024 — or start a civil war if he doesn’t. Trump is an avatar for a LOT of macro problems in American politics and, as such, we can’t just keep punting these problems down the road.

The Second American Republic, the one founded by Lincoln upon his death, is just about to end and either we turn into an American Autocracy or we have some sort of rebirth into a Third American Republic. At the moment, it could go either way.

My bet is this is it, Trump wins and he and his eventual successor turn us into something akin to Russia, Hungary or Turkey. There might be a WW3 along the way as we transition into an autocracy as well.

But I do think that if Trump loses — as all these well meaning Republicans seem to think in private — we’re going to have a civil war, probably with Texas being the first state to leave the Union. And, add into the equation how fucking old Biden is and…oh boy.

Anyway. Get out of the country while you can, if you have the means.

Yet More Literary Existential Angst

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got some blood work back today and it indicated that I have high cholesterol — a leading cause of heart attack and stroke. Which, of course, makes me think of how Stieg Larsson died just as he learned he had gotten a book deal. I’m the same age he was when he died of a heart attack and I still have about a year left before I will start querying.

What gets me is that even if I stick the landing with this novel that because of post-production, I could be 55 or 56 before I’m a published author. That really gives me pause for thought when I realize I may drop dead at any moment from a heart attack or stroke.

And, what’s more, there is the issue of what the fuck is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025 just about the time I’m going to start querying my first novel aggressively. It could be that the either we’re slipping into autocracy or we are about to have a civil war or revolution just as I’m doing that.

I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war or revolution. I think Trump is going to win and that will be that. He will use Schedule F to turn us into an autocracy and I’ll have to start to seriously think about how I’m going to escape an ICE agent putting a bullet in the back of my head.

And, YET, given that it was my anger over Trump that caused me to start working on this six novel project in the first place, the case could be made that if some agent learns the nature and overarching subtext of these six novels that they might be more interested in buying the first novel.

The subtext of these six novels is I fucking hate MAGA with a white hot rage to the point that I’m willing to write six novels that let me rant about how much I hate political extremism.

Anyway, we’re totally fucked. I just don’t see any “third way” like what happened in 2020. Something really unexpected will have to happen pretty quick. Trumpism has gone septic and this is it — America is going to be an autocracy starting in 2025.

Taking The Prospect Of A ‘Resistance Revolution’ in Late 2024 – Early 2025 Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I hate violence! So, think of this as just some mental masturbation that is toying with the abstract idea of there being some sort of “Glorious Revolution” in the United States in late 2024, early 2025 in reaction to the ding-dong thug and tyrant Trump becoming POTUS again.

First, the reason why I’ve latched on to the idea of a “revolution” rather than a “civil war” is, lulz, I don’t want to leave the US. I love America and what I want is an opportunity found a Third American Republic, not build a new, separate one from scratch.

It’s take me a loooooong time to realize what it was I wanted. It took so long because I was confused and distracted by all the talk about a “National Divorce.” It took me a long time to realize that I don’t want a National Divorce! I just want the opportunity to force through some much-needed political reforms.

So, in my mind a “Resistance Revolution” would begin not with a lot of Blue States deciding to leave the Union, but something far more broad in scope. The issue would not be state level objection to the establishment of “Trumplandia” but, rather millions of individuals across the country take a stand and refusing to allow a tyrant ding-dong like Trump from seizing and consolidating power in the first place.

But as I keep saying, I just don’t think that’s even going to come anywhere near happening. At the moment, at least, it just doesn’t seem viable. Trump is going to win in 2024 and we turn into a MAGA Nazi-themed autocracy soon there after.

I just hope my Trump-branded concentration camp has Wifi.

I Don’t Think People Realize How Serious The Stakes of The 2024 Election Are

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the 2016 election is people voted for an autocrat and what they got was a dumb, lazy, ding-dong who had no idea what he was doing. He just thrashed around, yelling to the point that he could not do something as simple as steal the 2020 election.

F

With that in mind, he and his toadies, according to The New York Times, have decided to do all kinds of things in 2025 once they’re in power again. Apparently, they’re going to purge the government of the “deep state” and pretty much turn us into Russia.

As such, late 2024, early 2025 is probably going to be lit. The issue is, what are we going to do about it? At the moment, I think nothing is going to happen. Smug, wealthy liberals will use their second passport they got through their refugee grandparents and simply flee the country — probably Europe. So, there will be a massive America diaspora that could radically change world culture. I just don’t think the people who would lead any “Blue Revolution” or “Resistance Revolution” have it in them to do it.

But I suppose there is a greater-than-zero-sum possibility that something like that might happen. I hate violence to much to support any such thing, but on a purely abstract basis, it is an intriguing possibility. I continue to worry about Mike Flynn’s brother, who in charge of U.S. Pacific Command. If there was any sort of “Resistance Revolution” he would be in a position to help squash it. UGH.

The crazy part of all of this is even if The Good Guys win in 2024, there is a good chance that rather than a revolution, we’ll have a civil war as Reds decide to leave the Union.

The point is — my long-held prediction that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a shitshow is holding up.

2024: The Year of Put Up Or Shut The Fuck Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ am I tired of all this mealy mouthed, half-assed things that are going on in American politics at the moment. Smug wealthy liberals with all their fucking suck-your-own-cock podcasts already have one foot out the door with a second passport they got through their refugee grandparents.

UGH.

I would rather, in a way, we just give up and allow the fucking fascist MAGA Nazis take over than do this weird political kabuki dance whereby the absolutists on both sides get more and more angry. I hate violence, that I almost — almost — would rather we just slip peacefully into MAGA Nazi autocracy in 2024 and get it over with.

And, yet, there is also a part of me that wants to stand my political ground on a greater political sense. If MAGA Nazis want civil war, how about we have a Blue Revolution instead? And if the Second American Revolution happened in just the right way, it wouldn’t even be that violent.

You would have to knock SOME heads, obviously, but if your revolution aims were low-key enough that MIGHT be kept to a minimum. Hopefully. But I’m not advocating anything, I’m just frustrated and annoyed about how half-assed our politics are at the moment.

We have fucking MAGA Nazi fascists running roughshod over our democracy and we’re just shrugging. Donald Fucking Trump continues to be 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. And if he becomes president, that’s it, the end of American democracy as we’ve known it.

So 2024 is it — put up or fucking shut up.

Why The Hollywood Strikes May Last A Long Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems clear to me that at some point the Hollywood suits will face an existential choice — either give up and provide concrete assurances regarding AI to the various creative labor unions, or simply wait until the whole issue is moot by technological advances.

As such, either what some people assume will happen, will happen — the strike wraps up around the middle of September or it lasts much, much longer. If the suits get the sense that they can leapfrog directly into something akin to a “Her” future by simply sitting on their hands and suffering a little bit upfront….oh boy.

It could be — maybe — that Hollywood is about to be “Moneyballed” to a point that your head will spin. We will wake up in about 18 months and some pretty basic assumptions about Hollywood will be seen as rather quaint. Everything will be AI generated in the extreme to the point that there won’t even be this thing we now call “mass media.”

Now, remember, all of this is happening in the context of a massive fucking clusterfuck may be about to happen in late 2024, early 2025 on the political front. It could be that America is going to destroy itself for a few years — gulp — and THEN, THAT will be when the “Her” future we all (hope for?) (dread?) will come about.

Or not. I have no idea. I can’t predict the future.

I could totally see things get wrapped up in a rather snap manner out of the blue and the issue of AI will be punted down the road another three years. And, yet, there is a greater-than-zero chance that ALL creatives in Hollywood are totally and completely fucked.

The Myth That Joe Biden Missed An Opportunity To Be A ‘Statesman’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the news that the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well, despite the “vibes” telling us everything sucks, I’m reminded by how people on the Right have complained that Biden has been to partisan.

People who talk like this obviously pretty much just want Biden to be something he’s not — “statesman” is code for “Joe Manchin.” Given how divided the country is, and how 38% of the Republican electorate is all-in on the idea of fascism…I just don’t see how Biden becoming some darling of the non-existent Center would have worked.

Yes, he could have said he wasn’t going to run again. And, yes, he could have muted some of his more center-Left policy movies…but who would have that placated? You have an entire MAGA bullshit echochamber designed specifically to juice the MAGA base at any perceived “woke” slight.

As such, Biden would be pretty much only making the Green Room at Face The Nation happy if he tried to “statesman” route. The country is tearing itself apart and we’re either going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy or we’re going to start blowing shit up.

I think and hope we just become an MAGA autocracy. I hate violence too much to think otherwise. But there is a real risk that the most powerful nation in the world is going to destroy itself over “vibes.”