Tag: The Fourth Turning

Triumph Of The Tribunes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If we really are heading towards some sort of “Her”-like future, then people who can ask Her-like digital assistants will be the people with the most important jobs. And the people who can do that?

Usually, in today’s world, they’re journalists.

As such, there may come a point in the future where the skill set usually associated with journalists will be the most valuable in the marketplace. Remember, of course, that the path to such an idyllic future for today’s journalists won’t be a straight line.

Pretty much all knowledge economy jobs could become moot before it happens. It could be that not until the entirety of human civilization is reorganized will any such thing happen. There could “Tribunes” who are the people who talk to our new AGI overlords on a daily basis.

Something. Something like that.

Everyone else will be living off of UBI. And there might be a civil war / revolution in the US between now and this future (and a WW3.)

So, all the bitter journalists I know will still have every reason to be bitter for years — decades? — to come. But I do think that all these new jobs I’m being promised because of AI (AGI) may be a real revolution in how we view work. It will be people who can asks a good question who will have a job.

That’s it.

That will be the only job in existence — being able to ask a good question.

We Have To Take The Possibility Of A Second American Revolution Seriously — And It Will Come From Blues

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has taken me a long, long time to figure this subtle difference out, but I finally have — it makes no sense for Blues to secede from the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump win re-election.

What DOES make a lot of sense is a Second American Revolution.

As such, the war aims would not be secession, but the overthrow of a tyrannical “Magadonia” regime. Blue States wouldn’t want to start their own, new nation, but bring freedom and prosperity back to a America under the yoke of tyranny.

I don’t know how much of that is me making myself feel better — I mean, I don’t want to start a Blue nation, I want to live in a free and united America — and how much of that is actually something that might happen.

Anyway. This is a distinction between Red war aims and Blue war aims that make me feel so, so, much better. I’m not much for secession, but I am willing to, in an abstract way, entertain revolution. But, even then, it’s an abstraction. I hate violence of any sort.

I would much rather we just muddle through and transition into some sort of “light touch” autocracy. I really do hate violence that much.

Butlerian Jihad: Is It Inevitable That MAGA Will Evolve Into an Neo-Luddite Movement?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump isn’t going to live forever, so the case could be made that we’re at the very beginning of a broader, longer-term revolution in American political life. Given my own personal experiences using LLMs to work on my novel, I’m growing kind of shocked at how good they are.

There are many, many jobs — both white collar and blue collar — that are going to grow moot and quaint in the near, near future.

As such, it is easy to imagine a new version of MAGA at some point in the near future that fuses the labor needs of the far Left and far Right in such a way that the banning of LLM (and AI in general) becomes something they are willing to burn the country down for.

Trump is just so, so very stupid that I doubt he is smart enough to process in the abstract why AI needs to be banned or regulated. That is, of course, until some the “woke” nature of LLMs is distilled down to a talking point that idiot Trump can understand well enough to demagogue.

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAGA and AI. I think whatever happens needs some time to marinate a little bit. The MAGA objections to AI are still to abstract for dingus Trump to process. It could be that if we have some sort of “perfect storm” in late 2024, early 2025 that that will be when Trump — or someone like him — starts to demand a Butlerian Jihad.

We’re Both Right: Why The Culture War Over Beer Is The Perfect Encapsulation Of How Dumb Everything Is In Modern America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s what’s going on. One of the rallying cries of the MAGA Right is “go woke go broke.” They point to how Bud Lite has lost, like, 20% of its market share for sending *1* promotional beer can to a trans “influencer” for an Instagram post.

And, yet, globally, I’ve seen evidence that overall, Anheuser-Busch has only lost 1% of its market share. What’s more, because of consolidation in the beer market,almost all of that lost market share is going to other beer brands, also owned by Anheuser-Busch!

As such, this is the perfect culture war battle — both sides are right and both sides are wrong — depending on how you look at things — if you ever get into any sort of argument over things.

In short — lulz, nothing matters. And everything sucks.

But I have to say — I am growing more and more alarmed at how Red and Blue are receding away from each other. Something’s gotta give. There is going to come a point where all these macro trends come to a head and God-only-knows what sort of fucked up things will happen.

The greatest country in the world is going to potentially imploded because of ‘vibes.”

Racism & Misogyny Are Hell of Political Drug Combination

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He is an empty suit. He doesn’t have to do anything but just exist and 35% of the Republican electorate will vote for him. Throw in how fucked up our electoral system is and, lulz, he’s 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.

But, wait, it gets worse!

The issue is — Trump really isn’t very popular. But because Republican-controlled institutions not only live in abject fear of him but hate democracy, there is a very real chance that if Trump doesn’t manage to win re-election in 2024 that we’re going to have a civil war.

And if he does “win” in 2024, there’s a real chance that we may have a Blue Revolution — at is, if all the fucking smug Twitter liberals are willing to stay in the country to provide leadership to that Revolution. (Not that I want such a destructive thing.)

But because of what a fucking dingus Trump is, we have to think seriously about some pretty destructive macro issues that are all coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. It could be that we’re just going to muddle through this lingering crisis like we have done since January 6th. It could be that Jan. 6th was the one chance that MAGA had to establish “Magadoina” and, lulz, everything after that is just a muddled game of moving goal posts and kicking political cans down the road.

I have no idea.

But I am growing….nervous.

Heads Up: A Constitutional Convention In The Near Future Is Inevitable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. But I love to pontificate about the future.And, as such, think it’s safe to say that one way or another, the United States is going to careen into a historic, existential crisis a lot sooner than you might think. For once, I’m not taking about the choice between autocracy or civil war.

This time, I’m talking about how we’re probably going to have a Constitutional Convention before the end of the decade, no matter what. And because of how the delegates to the convention would be selected, it’s inevitable that barring a Blue Revolution, that any such convention would be used to turn the United States into “Magadoina.”

Remember, the FIRST Constitutional Convention accidently on purpose went rouge. There’s every reason to believe that if the bonkers far Right people who want a such a convention so bad get their wish that the same thing will happen. And that the GOOD eventuality, with the bad version of this scenario being Trump gets re-elected and he gets into his ding-dong head that he wants a Constitutional Convention so he can staple onto the Constitution some MAGA “Enabling Acts.”

Or, put another way, the rest of this decade is going to be nuts. We’re coming to the endgame of the long-term historic forces tearing the country apart. Either we’re going to be all Red, or all Blue. And the process of deciding that particular situation is going to probably end the lives of a few billion people across the globe one way or another.

But, like I said, I’m always, always wrong. We’ll just muddle through, right? Right?

The MAGA Dawg Has No Bite (Yet?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more Trump gets into legal trouble and there isn’t, liike, blood on the streets, the more I’m beginning to wonder if maybe, just maybe, I’m overthinking what might happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that what happened on January 6th was a very specific incident, with every specific conditions, not to be repeated.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 in association with the 2024 election. Both sides have reason — at the state level — to freak out over whatever outcome might happen to occur as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

Reds will want a civil war because they want to “own the libs,” while Blues will want a revolution so they can topple the tyranny of the “Magadoina” regime. And, yet, we’re STILL to far out from these events for me to game out any hard and fast scenarios.

I’ve written a lot from a lot of different angles about how a civil war / revolution might come to the US….but…I don’t know. It could be that while Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican base, if he loses, he just won’t have the power I think he has. He’ll scream about how Texas should leave the Union — and they’ll think seriously about doing it — but, in the end, nothing will come of it.

But the more I think about it, the more it definitely seems clear to me that we won’t face rolling political violence as a result of the passions of the 2024 election, but, rather either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) It will be organized at the state level and will involve WMD, World War Three breaking out and probably a few H-bombs being lobbed our way by the DPRK.

In other words — it’s going to suuuuuuuck.

And, yet, here we are.

Lulz, America’s Fucking Doomed Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. And, what’s more, I can’t predict the future. No one can. However, America definitely has a modern antebellum vibe to it at the moment. The country is tearing itself apart as the Red and the Blue continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate.

And, yet, to date, there really hasn’t been the type of political violence one might expect if we were going to have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025. As such, it definitely seems as though when the time comes, we’re going to just slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy.

Something pretty extraordinary would have to happen for the one scenario that we would need to happen to punt our problems down the road again another for years to happen — that both Trump would lose and he wouldn’t try to start a civil war to save his own hide.

The country is careening towards some sort of Fourth Turning at such an alarming rate that I just can’t see Trump’s demands to start a civil war should he lose the 2024 election going unheeded. The most logical outcome is he wins and either we turn into a full-fledged Russia-style autocracy or there’s some sort of Blue “Revolution” bent on toppling the “Magadonia” regime.

It’s all very fucked up. I’ve been saying for years now that we face an existential choice in 2024 – 2025 of autocracy or civil war / revolution. The rhetoric is just too frothy and the momentum is too strong. Either we just give up and turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Get ready.

America In Red & Blue: A 2023 Hot Take On ‘MAGA Civil War’ or ‘Resistance Revolution’ Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, it seems as though the issue these days is more about which side of the political spectrum will get mad enough to resort to widespread political violence should the time come than anything else. I continue to be bemused by people who seem to think state governments won’t get involved if there is a “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

So, here are two scenarios about what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.

MAGA Civil War
In this scenario, somehow, magically, Trump isn’t re-elected in 2024. I find it very dubious that there is anything stopping him winning at this point, but, lulz — I can’t predict the future. Ok, in this scenario, Trump loses — or doesn’t manage to steal — the 2024 election and when he starts ranting…and ranting…and ranting…about how the election was “stolen” from him “again” the first thing that happens is there is widespread wildcat violence to the point that people don’t feel comfortable if their politics don’t fit the presidential politics of the state they live in. As such, there’s a lot of bouncing around, with Blues leaving Red states and Reds leaving Blue States. But that’s just the beginning. Ultimately, Red States — probably staring with Texas — will call up Secessionist conventions and they will begin to leave the Union. Before you know it, there really is a National Divorce and a Second American Civil War. We bomb ourselves into oblivion trying to fix this problem — probably with the aid of the DPRK. What’s more, WW3 breaks out because of all this bullshit and then, after about five years of unprecedent death and destruction (if we’re lucky it’s just that short) we come out the otherside deciding once and for all if America is a democracy or an autocracy. What’s more as all of this is happening, AI will be careening towards us at an alarming rate.

Resistance Revolution
But what happens if Trump wins? Well, then I think we don’t have a civil war, but rather a revolution. I say that because 1) revolutions are generally progressive in nature 2) the Right in the United States has the deep cultural echo of the secession to hook their hopes and dreams onto. Secession is an easy sell to a lot of fucking Southern rednecks who grow up their entire lives assuming that the South will “rise again.” As such, it could be when it becomes clear that Trump is going to become a tyrant, I could see that a Blue Revolution breaks out — again, on the state level –that involves not secession, but some attempt to topple the “Magadonia” regime. In real terms, the only different between a MAGA Civil War and a Resistance Revolution would be context and marketing, but, lulz — sucks to be you MAGA. Again, if this happens, there would be WW3 in the context of a potential Petite Singularity rushing towards us at an alarming rate.

It’s very much up in the air which side would win or how long either of these tragic historic events would take. The whole idea stinks and sucks and I don’t want it — but we have to take the idea that one way or another the United States may be about to go through a era of political violence not seen since 1861 – 1865.

The Nature of Trump’s Continued Popularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s what’s going on with Trump and that core 38% of the electorate who continue support him, no matter what. It’s no so much Trump the person as it is Trump the “idea.” Trump’s base of support comes from conservative white Christians who feel put upon by the “excesses” of the center-Left.

They don’t consider themselves racists or bigots, but relative the “woke” center-Left, they feel like they’re being portrayed that way. As such, they are angry over being put upon by the rise of a browner America and women with economic agency.

As such, they want the “good old days” of white Christians being “on top” to return. Since they can’t get that, they cling to a fighter like Trump, even though he is demonstrably bonkers, racist and stupid.

So, at this point, it really doesn’t matter what Trump does. He’s still 60,000 voters in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. We’ve kind of given up. On a macro basis the American Republic is on its last legs. Or we have a civil war /revolution of some sort starting in late 2024, early 2025 and after bombing or ourselves into oblivion the “good guys” win and we gradually return to hyperpower status, though in the context of a New World Order after a Third World War.

I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems like one option.

Or, put another way, the rise of someone as fucking stupid as Trump definitely indicates that America is at a crossroads. Either we establish a Third American Republic, or, that’s it. That’s all she wrote — we turn into a Russian-style illiberal democracy probably with some form of AI being involved for good measure.

Which direction will we take?

I honestly don’t know.

But back to Trump.

All the liberals who continue to be aghast at Trump’s popularity are really missing the point.They are very, very out of touch. A lot of white Christians — a few of whom I’m related to — mean well, but just can’t grapple with the rapid social changes of the “woke” cultural left.

So, they fell pushed into the arms of fascists. There are no easy answers to this particular situation. While we may still punt our problems down the road, in general, we’re very, very fucked.

Good luck.