As I often say, politically, I’m the red headed stepchild of my family. Everyone else in my family is a bedrock Traditional conservative. Even though I hate talking politics with them now, I still find myself doing it and, as such, I use them as an impromptu focus group.
They key takeaway is — Traditionalists no longer believe in democracy. They’re primed and ready for the United States to transition into an autocratic, illiberal democracy like they have in Hungary or Turkey. And, as long as the transition is peacefully, they probably wouldn’t mind all that much if we ended up somewhere closer to Russia or Nazi Germany.
That’s because, from what I can tell, my relatives have only two red lines — violence and the personal. So, yeah, if MAGA freaked out and there was violence in the streets on their part, my relatives might have some pause for thought as our democracy was strangled. But as long as the transition is peaceful — lulz.
The other red line is, well, me.
So, my relatives — whom I love dearly — are looking forward to living an autocratic white Christian ethnostate because then, at last, they won’t have to worry about having their life ruined — canceled — simply because they’re conservative. They think my personal fears about fascists using hard power against me once we’re an autocracy are hysterical and ridiculous.
But we do turn into an autocracy, all bets are off. None of our rights — even freedom of speech — will be off the table. And, given my tendency to get drunk and rant in bars, it’s within the realm of possibility that at some point after 2025 I could very well get drunk, start to rant about how I think our Very American Autocrat can suck my dick and before you know it…my relative’s red line will be crossed.
Of course, it could be too late — I could be dead in a ditch somewhere at the hand of an ICE agent who was tipped off about my rant.
But at least my relatives won’t have to worry about being canceled, huh?
I can tell from my Webstats that MAGA Republicans who want a National Divorce search for the term and endup at this Website, only to find me arguing that it should be Blues, not Reds who leave the Union.
This is so fucking bonkers.
MAGA is politically ascendant. They are on the cusp of seizing control of the United States and turning the country I love into a fascist, theocratic, autocratic ethnostate. And, yet, they still feel aggrieved and disenfranchised to the point that they think Reds states should leave the Union! It is a testament to what happens when you start taking your own bullshit at face value.
I keep telling the traditionalists that I know all they have to do is be patient and they’re going to get everything, and I mean EVERYTHING that they want politically and then some. But this doesn’t stop them from perceiving any and every slight as oppression.
MAGA Republicans, apparently, feel completely overwhelmed by the oppression of the “woke cancel culture mob” to the point that they are totally oblivious to how they are just a few short months from probably taking control of Congress and being well on their way to establishing a white, autocratic Christian ethno state in 2025 when a Republican — any Republican — is sworn in as POTUS.
It’s all very curious. It’s a testament to the power of Fox News and Right wing podcasts that the Right lives in some sort of la la land where they are the scrapy underdogs who have to fuck their guns to prevent the evil “woke cancel culture mob” from ruining their lives just for being conservative. They think this to the point that they totally and completely miss they are on the cusp of getting exactly what they want.
Around late 2024, early 2025, a least a million “libtards” are going to leave the United States, never to be seen again. Then the country begins to circle the drain and we grow more and more fascist. No need for Red states to leave the Union.
But for the fact that any National Divorce would mean a Second American Civil War, I would now say let’s do this — Blue States need to prepare seriously for secession. I never thought I would get this point, but here we are. MAGA Republicans are ascendant and their dream is my nightmare.
In the end, fascist MAGA Republicans are going to turn the United States into an autocracy, a Russia clone and maybe even a clone of Nazi Germany (if we’re really unlucky.) So, on paper, all things being equal, it’s time for Blue States to bounce, leave the Union and start their own nation where there is equal protection under the law.
And, yet, I don’t really want this. There is no practical way for Blue States to leave the Union without violence. What’s more, just because Blues left the Union with the idea of starting their own center-Left nation, doesn’t mean that ultimately their war aims wouldn’t change and we would endup with a massive battle to find who controls all of the current political territory of the United States.
What’s worse, WW3 would begin during any National Divorce / Second American Civil War — and there is always the risk that the DPRK might lob a few H-bombs our way simply out of spite.
So, we’re back to square one. Blues have to accept that the United States is going to turn into an autocracy in 2025 — baring something I really simply have no way of predicting. As such, I would suggest that if you’re a Blue that you get your affairs in order and begin to game out voting with your feet — leaving the country and never coming back.
The one thing that I can’t figure out is what Blues will do between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that they face the existential choice of bending a knee to fascist MAGA autocracy or they simply leave the Union at the state level like what happened with slave states in 1860 – 1861.
Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
We’re too far out to game out what will happen, but there are a number of different options. One is, nothing happens other than a lot of wealthy liberals flee the country — maybe 1 million or more — and they all start doing their “Resistance” podcasts in the south of France.
At the moment, that seems the most logical outcome. American democracy ends not with a bang, but with a lot of one way tickets out of the country by people who are wearing MeUndies.
So, it seems safe to say that if there is any secessionist crisis in late 2024, early 2025, it’s going to be because there is a popular groundswell of support all across Blue America for that to happen. And if that happens, then….what? I don’t know. The farthest I can get in this wargaming is maybe a summit of Blue governors is held somewhere….and then….what? Is that when they agree to hold the Secessionist Conventions?
Things quickly grow murky. If Blue States begin to leave the Union, what does the outgoing Biden Administration do? What happens with the U.S. Military? What do they do in the face of such a crisis? Do they simply follow the orders of our new MAGA fascist overlords to crush the secession or do they step in and overthrow civilian rule long enough for the two sides to cool it?
I just don’t know.
But what I do know is something’s gotta give. We can’t keep punting these existential problems down the road anymore. MAGA is so politically ascendant that, by definition, if they have the power to turn us into an autocracy, they will. The only question is, will we endup being like Hungary and Turkey or will we be closer to Russia? Or, even, God forbid, Nazi Germany?
Again, I just don’t know.
And I think this could be one of those things where we won’t know until it happens one way or another. Remember — the first signs of violence will come from coups and counter coups in swing states that really don’t know if they’re a Blue or Red state to the point of leaving or staying in the Union.
For instance, states like Virginia are really two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. And if Virginia was forced to pick a side, it would collapse, probably with there be a coup, then counter coup as each side tied to force the state to go one way or another. Virginia would definitely be a flash point in any National Divorce. We’re talking Yugoslavia levels of clusterfuck.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
One of the more sensitive issues in society today is LGBTQ rights. It’s so sensitive that it’s difficult to even address it without either people yelling at each other or someone getting “canceled” before it’s all over with.
And, yet, it’s definitely something that is tearing the country apart in its own way because the Blues have a very strict orthodoxy about the subject that really alienates people who might otherwise join forces with them to keep our fragile democracy alive.
The issue of LGBTQ rights — and the topsy-turvy world of center-Left expectations about gender — is something that Reds love, love, love to wallow in because it helps push people who might otherwise support democracy into their arms and, but extension, the arms of fascism.
It’s gotten to the point where my center-Right relatives have the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “turn everyone gay” at the VERY forefront of their mind. That’s all they want to talk about. It’s their go-to talking point, especially when they might be losing an argument about something else. And Traditionalist conservatives are so all-in with the anti-gay orthodoxy of Reds that they’ve completely bought into the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” is “grooming” little kids whenever it’s not engaging in infanticide.
The whole thing is loopy and corrosive to the point that it’s like nations of the mind that Blues and Reds live in are totally different. And, soon enough, it could be that they live in two different political nations as well. Only time will tell. We may implode into a MAGA Republican fascist state instead, who knows at the moment.
The issue of gay rights is one of a number of hot button topics — abortion, global climate change and gun control to name a few others — that are now so totally loaded that’s its impossible to have any type of conversation about them with someone you disagree with. The two sides have very strict orthodoxies and that’s that. Neither side will compromise, neither side will budge or even listen to what the other has to say.
And it’s things like that which makes me think we’re careening towards a very dark future — one of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this up. The two sides are too far apart and our politics no longer function.
Either we become all Red (autocracy) or Blues tell Reds to fuck off and leave the Union on the state level. What the U.S. Military will do is very much up in the air and there is at least a chance that we may endup with a military junta for a while instead of the other two choices.
Anyway, get out of the country if you can. Things are dark and getting darker by the moment.
The Traditionalist conservatives I know love Trump because he’s a fighter. They feel “oppressed” because the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids and otherwise turn everyone gay.
They feel they risk having their life ruined — or “canceled” if they should happen to do or say something that doesn’t follow the “woke” media agenda. They think all their favorite stars are having their lives ruined by the “woke mob.”
They are aghast at the potency of the transgender movement — especially when children are involved — and the feel the “what are your pronouns” issue to be as alarming as it is ridiculous.
Throw in a heaping helping of negative polarization and you have a recipe for disaster in the guise of the United States turning into an autocratic white Christian ethostate pretty much the next time Republicans have it in their power to do so.
In short, the United States is fucked.
The center-Left is too divided, too wrapped up in quibbling about how many genders can dance on the head of a pin, to do anything preemptively about the dangers we face. And, really, at the moment, I just don’t see there being a National Divorce.
Blues will ultimately bend a knee to fascism and those who have the means will vote with their feet by leaving the country. That, at the moment, seems to be our immutable fate. The only reason why I don’t absolutely believe this is I can’t predict the future and, as such, we might either have a civil war or some sort of military junta.
And, yet, the fix is in for Something Bad to happen. We’re past the event horizon for “the Fourth Turning” if you want to invoke that astrology for dudes brand.
In the end, I think we’re just going to shrug and give up our American democratic birthright because we don’t realize the true implications of becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy. Good luck.
The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.
So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.
But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.
It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.
We may all be antifa one day.
There are so very many problems with this idea.
I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.
But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.
All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.
But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.
As I keep saying, the old adage about how someone goes bankrupt gradually then all at once can definitely apply to the prospect of the United States imploading into something akin to civil war between now and spring 2025. Now, there is so much I simply can’t game out.
I’m wrong all the time, so I suppose it’s at least possible that somehow, someway we’ll escape the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta and drift through another presidential election cycle without addressing the serious structural problems within the American political system.
And, yet, I can’t help going to the grocery store and looking around and seeing all the different types of people walking around and imagining a time in the not-too-distant future when what you believe politically will become existential — over and above the other problems that will explode into the foreground like potential Qanon-inspired genocide and race wars.
I know that sounds hysterical, like I’m thinking up some sort of liberal-progressive version of The Turner Diaries, but I have a great unease about what’s going on to happen to the United States over the course of the next few years. There is every reason to believe that it’s possible that the otherwise wealthiest, most powerful democracy the world has ever seen could very well implode into civil war and general chaos.
And the very diversity that makes us so strong could be the thing that destroys us as Qanon flavored MAGA fascists attempt to found a white Christian ethno state in the rubble of the country I love. The cities might be emptied and there could be American Killing Fields. The political map of North America could be completely redrawn as Canada is consumed by the blackhole that the United States has turned into.
Again, I’m probably being hysterical. But the United States keeps lurching towards a darker and darker future. What that dark future ultimately is, remains to be seen.
Antisemitism has always been a part of America’s modern fascist movement, it’s just been lurking in the shadows in the guise of “Qanon.” But lately, especially with the tweets of Ye….the sentiment has grown more conspicuous. Now, let me be clear – I’m not Jewish and I’m just pointing out the obvious: if your country has a fascism problem, you’ve got an antisemitism problem just around the corner.
Now, in an ideal world, the rise of such antisemitic hate would cause a lot of prominent MAGA people to wash their hands of MAGA and that would be that. I mean, fucking Stephen Miller is MAGA ‘s Joseph Goebbels and you’d think being Jewish he might pause to reflect on the rise of antisemitism within MAGA ranks.
But, no, he’s a vile, nasty bigot who won’t stop being a true believer until it’s too late for him — and everyone else for that matter.
The thing I would suggest you keep an eye on Qanon as well as MAGA’s interpretation of Jared and Ivanka’s Jewishness. If Qanon completely consumed MAGA — as it’s on track to do at the moment, then it’s obvious antisemitism basis may grow more and more a feature and not a bug. I still am very concerned that should we become a MAGA-themed autocracy that it will be because of Qanon that we zoom past being a political clone of Hungary and end up circling the drain somewhere around being a Nazi clone. (Of course, America’s Fourth Reich won’t be expansition in nature, but more like something Pol Pot might think up.)
Also, if Jared and Ivanka’s position in MAGA grows untenable then…yeah, something really bad is about to happen for American Jews. Something we were all told Never Again and Never Forget.
I wish American Jews — even conservative American Jews — would be more at the forefront of the anti-MAGA movement. But I suppose — hopefully — that time will come.
We’ve reached the point in our immutable march towards MAGA autocracy, civil war or military junta at some point between now and spring 2025 that we need to start trying to make concrete our abstract fears.
So, let’s take a Second American Civil War. What are some practical elements to such an event happening that may — or may not — cause it to happen in the first place.
The first thing we need to contemplate is what would cause a 2AMC in the first place. There has been a lot — A LOT — of talk by Very Important Experts about how if there is a 2ACW that it will be rolling political violence on the part of Reds who feel stymied in their efforts to establish a white Christian ethnostate. The thinking goes that at some point in the immediate future all the good old boys who drink Miller Lite at the cabin shooting off their AR-15s will finally get so fed up with the “woke cancel culture mob” that they will spontaneously begin to shoot at liberals.
Or something. Something like that.
I’m just a drunk crank in the middle of nowhere, but I call bullshit on this prediction because Reds are politically ascendant and, as such, have no reason to do such a thing. They’re putting all the pieces in place for them to be able to steal the 2024 election in a pretty brazen manner. Starting with local election boards refusing to certify any Democrat win, the fix will be in.
Rather than having a Western democracy in the guise of our constitutional republic, it will become accepted that the administration of elections is now so corrupt that it is effectively impossible for a Democrat to win high office peacefully in the United States. Twitter liberals will flee the country en mass and that, sadly, will be that.
That’s what I believe is going to happen, by the way.
But. There is a greater than zero sum chance that instead of us slipping peacefully into MAGA fascist autocracy that it will be Blues who refuse to bend a knee and begin the process of not blowing shit up randomly, but actually having states leave the Union on a political basis.
Now, this is where things remain murky and very, very speculative. At the moment, there is no reason to believe Blues would take the step of calling Secessionist Conventions so they could start a Blue America Union. So, if it did happen, it would be one of the biggest and most unexpected political developments in the United States since, well, the first time it was attempted in 1860 – 1861.
I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.
Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.
Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”
Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.
But back to the scenario.
Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.
This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.
Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.
The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.
Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.
If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.
And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.
There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.
At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.
Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?
There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.
All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.
This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?
Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)
I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.
Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
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