Tag: The Thousand Year Trump

How Would We Know If A Second American Civil War Was About To Start?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I still don’t think we’re going to have a civil war in the United States. The most logical situation this fall is due to the Durham Investigation, ratfucking of the postal service and direct hacking by the Russians, Trump is going to “win” on Election Night.

Any political violence will be simply Far Right weirdos getting a little ahead of themselves. Trump will lulz that, though. By about February 2021, Trump’s consolidation of power will be complete and we won’t even know that Little Green Men are snatching people off the street and pushing them out of windows.

A series of things would have to go wrong for us to find ourselves in a dueling POTUS scenario. But let’s say that happened.

Desperate Attempts
If the original Civil War is any indication, there will be a number of panicked attempts to keep the country together. Constitutional Amendments will be proposed. There will be threats of succession as barging tools. Even a military-brokered “Unity Government” proposal.

Storming FOX
Things will begin to grow demonstrably worse when FOX News and other conservative media outlets are physically driven out of NYC by Blue mobs. Their staff will be forced to decamp to a safe Red State, maybe, Tennessee or Mississippi? This will enrage Trump and Red State people and things will only escalate.

Political Violence
As the final bolts begin to pop off civil society, it would make sense that a number of well-known liberals will be murdered in cold blood by bloodthirsty MAGA-Qanon people. This will happen because Red States are still taking the situation far more seriously than Blue States.

One crucial issue is which POTUS does the U.S. Military side with? Barr will have laid the legal groundwork for Trump to “legally” be president. As such, that will be the final moment of truth.

There’s a big difference between the U.S. Military putting down a Red State rebellion and them putting down a Blue State rebellion.

Regardless, good luck and God speed.

How To Win The Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I want to convey is how moronic it is for anyone — especially the Right — to want a civil war in the United States. The Right is ascendant in the United States and they are well on their way to getting everything they want through the collapsing political system of the country. Of course, in a sense, the Right is trying to avoid a civil war by hoping to snuff out the Republic in broad daylight. They hope that through the Durham Investigation, fucking with the postal service, fucking with mail in ballots in places like Wisconsin and getting the Russians to hack directly into our election systems that the whole thing will be a lulz and fuck you.

And they may very well succeed.

But let’s, for a moment, suggest they don’t. The absolute worst case scenario happens and we have dueling presidents come January 20th. The Right, because of Interior Minister Barr’s legal shenanigans, absolutely thinks Trump is president. Meanwhile, everyone else knows absolutely that Trump has strong armed the situation in a pretty brazen fashion — so much so that people take to the streets. A combination of Far Right paramilitary groups meet them there and a cascading series of events lead to an actual organized fighting war between the States.

Who wins?

This is a very murky situation that is difficult to game out. Red States, for their part, have the passion, organization and leadership to win the first round of this clusterfuck because they actually want a civil war. And, honestly, if the Blue States simply all attempt to leave the Union, then the Red States will probably win because the U.S. Military will do exactly what they did during the original civil war. Or, put another way, something akin to a dystopian Second Reconstruction will happen, with the Blue States being turned into military districts (or worse.)

That, too, is a very real possibility. It will be a very bloody situation, but, I guess, MAGA-Qanon’s war aims — to finally squash the “Blue Peril” — will be achieved. Trumplandia will be established and we all are forced to watch OANN and listen to Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless The USA” on repeat all day long. Trump gets his Constitutional Convention. We leave NATO and align with Russia. Trump serves out the remainder of his days as something of an American Brezhnev.

But let’s suppose Blue States stand and fight. This is where things get far less rosy for Red States. The crucial thing Blue States would have to do at this point is get the U.S. Military on their side. It might be difficult for Blue States to get the U.S. Military to pick any side, but getting the power of the U.S. Military on their side would go a long way to allowing them to win their war aims.

Now, one issue is, as it stands, the Blue States don’t even realize the peril they’re in. So, it would take a little while for leaders to emerge and for there to be any sense, at all, as to what the Blue State’s war aims were in the first place. But, in general, I suppose their war aims would be to restore liberal democracy to the United States. To accomplish that, one war aim would be to completely and totally destroy the Republican Party. As things grow more radicalized as the civil war progresses, it would make sense for the Republican Party to go full fascist and start rounding up liberals and minorities and murdering them in cold blood. I say this especially in the context of the rise of Qanon, which is nothing more than a Nazi conspiracy theory re-branded for the modern age.

I have come to believe that seen from a strictly realpolitik point of view, the Blue States have it in them to conquer the Red States. It may take longer than anyone would prefer. It may take a lot of blood and treasure to do it, but it can be done. One issue, of course, is the Red States are likely to play dirty. They may seize arms from the U.S Military such as chemical and biological agents (hell, even tactical nukes) which would really scramble everything.

And, to be clear, an actual civil war would unleash astonishing economic, political and social changes. There would be a Before and an After. But, hopefully, when it finally ended, we would be Americans again.

A Second American Civil War & The Lesson Of Ensign Pulver


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I spend way too much time these days thinking about the possibility of a looming Second American Civil War and I keep thinking about a few things. One is, I simply can’t find any logic for the Right wanting a civil war. It makes no sense. None.

On a political level, they’re in a position to get everything they want. Even if Trump lose, the gradual trend in American politics is rightward. The center-Left is weak and divided. The center-Left is so weak and divided that it’s very possible that all this angst over a second civil war is a whole lot of nothing because Trump is simply going to consolidate power after stealing the 2020 election. That’s a very real possibility. It will all happen on a political level, no violence needed.

And, yet, here we are.

A number of far Right militias are full speed ahead in their belief that we’re already in a civil war.

The other thing that I keep thinking about is the character Ensign Pulver from the World War 2 movie Mr. Roberts. All during the movie, Ensign Pulver — played by Jack Lemon — is a lazy cad. He is the movie’s comic relief. At the very end of the movie, however, he has Mr. Roberts’ job and he is shown as a hero. He’s risen to the occasion because he had to.

As such, I would suggest to Neo-Confederates and other political scoundrels to slow your roll with talk of civil war. Just because you have a very low opinion of Blue State people, doesn’t mean that when politics finally fails us and the issues of the day become far more existential in nature that they won’t be up to the task.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where once we have some sense of where things stand — and what each side’s agenda is — that Blue State citizens shock everyone — including maybe even themselves — by really putting a hurting on Red State folks.

One thing I will note is there are a lot of variables that simply don’t fit the second civil war porn of Neo-Confederates. One is how modern American women are not going to sit idly by if defeating Trump is no longer a political question but a war aim. That’s an entire untapped source of mindskill and potential soldiers.

Also, and I can not stress this enough — what the fuck does the far Right think is going to happen with African Americans. If they literally turn most of Dixie into white racist ethno states, then there’s a good chance that many African Americans will revolt against that situation.

So, I dunno. Apparently the civil war is already here.

I still think it’s an extremely dumb idea for the Right to advocate.

Ratfucking The Election With The Russians: The Case Against Donald Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere. But I’m pretty good at abstract thought. I’ve been ranting about how Trump is going to steal the 2020 election as part of a quid pro quo with the Russians, but why do I think that? Here’s why.

Ratfucking an Election is Trump’s Thing
Just with the 2016 election alone, Trump did two major ratfuckings — he paid off Stormy Daniels just before the election and, in more general terms, was actively working with the Russians to tip the scales in his favor.

House Trump’s Blocking of Election Protection
Both the Trump Administration and the Republics in Congress really, really don’t want any investigation into what the Russians may be up to in 2020. They do everything in their power to stop any protection at all of our election or election systems. And we keep finding evidence that the Russians are already fucking with our election systems. And, yet, Republicans are completely indifferent.

Trump Keeps Talking To Putin
Since just about when Trump realized he might lose, Trump’s been talking to Putin on the phone about every two weeks. In fact, he is doing everything in his power to talk to Putin in private in September when, I think, the G20 summit is going to be held.

Trump Has Removed 1/3 of Our Troops From Germany
No one has any good reason for why this has happened. None. Trump, just out of the blue, freaked out and demanded this to happen in September. Very strange. It’s almost as if someone told him to do it for some reason. Maybe as part of a quid pro quo? And who benefits the most from such a move? Putin.

As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where during one of Trump’s many phone calls with Putin, Putin suggests if he really wants Russian help so bad, that he do something concrete to show a good faith effort to help them out. What better thing than move troops out of Germany? It pisses the Germans off and, yet, there is plausible deniability. The deal gets the final go-ahead when Trump meets Putin in private at the G20. They shake on it. It’s the perfect crime.

Life During Trumplandia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One way to face your fears is to think about them so thoroughly that you turn an abstract fear in to a more understandable concrete one. So, let’s think through what like in “Trumplandia” will be like once the Russians steal the 2020 Election for Trump because we pulled out 1/3 of our troops from Germany at their behest.

Well, some of this is easy and some of it is hard.

It’s easy to see that once Trump is AGAIN politically pardoned for everything he’s done while in office that he’ll take his consolidation of power to the next level — he’s going to purge the press.

This could happen any number of different ways. But I’m going to assume it happens two different ways — “German Industrialists” do House Trump’s bidden by, say, buying up companies like Twitter while House Trump itself will lean on media companies to change their tune about House Trump….or else.

The broadcast companies — because of their government licences — are easy. The New York Times might be a bit more difficult to bring to heel, but when you have the entire power and weight of the US Government at your disposal it’s easy to imagine Rupert Murdoch finally owning the paper at last.

So, on a practical level, the first thing the average person will notice is a lot of fresh faces on TV and some pretty strange changes in tone at The New York Times and The Washington Post. I don’t think a lot of people appreciate how central the NYT is to the media ecosystem, so once it’s neutered, that will change a lot.

All the major late night talk show hosts will vanish off TV and a wave of new people will pop up who strangely avoid talking about politics altogether. In a sop to liberals, they may be women and minorities, but they will completely stop talking about politics because “it’s not popular.” It’s even possible that something weird will happen with SNL as well.

But all of this will happen in one fell swoop, so fast that there won’t be anyone to, well, report about it.

Once House Trump gets the free press out of the way, then Trump starts to rant about the need for a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” This is where some sort of doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights” will be pushed through the MAGA dominated convention and, lulz, the United States will be officially transformed into Trumplandia.

The question, of course, is how will this affect the average person?

This is a very interesting question because on one hand, given how fragile and rotting out liberal democracy obviously is, it’s easy to imagine that this transformation will happen quite smoothly. And, yet, Trump himself is such a massive moron self-own artist, that things may get all fucked up. Instead of pulling a fast one on everyone, Trump could be so ham-handed in his smash-and-grab on the United States that people get really mad.

If that’s the case, then we’ll just continue to drift into an autocratic managed democracy in fits and starts. It will be Trump’s successor — Cotton? Pompeo? Don Jr.? — who will be able to do all the ratfucking that Trump obviously is desperate to do.

But one thing I think we really need to keep an eye on in Trump’s stolen second term is how much money Trump Org is able to suck out of our economy. Our economy is significantly bigger than Russia’s so it make sense that the House Trump could become the wealthiest “royal” family in the world pretty quick. All that ill-gotten cash can be turned around to bribe anyone who might get in their way going forward.

In the long run, it’s probably First Amendment rights that Americans will notice the erosion of the most. But by the time the “final pivot” happens with MAGA-Qanon it’s going to be way, way, way too late to worry about shit like that.

People like me are going to be told to “shut up if you know what’s good for you.” That will be the final answer from any MAGA-Qanon who happen to get into a debate with people like me.

The sad thing is, they’ll finally be right.

Trump’s Quid Pro Quo With The Russians For Removing 1/3 of Our Troops From Russia & The 2020 Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve grown extremely jaded about the United State’s fate. All macro trends indicate that we are so, so very fucked. There’s just nothing at this point that can possibly stop our transformation from liberal democracy to autocratic managed democracy. It’s a done deal.

We need to start thinking about how this change will influence us on a personal level and what we can do to make your little corner of this shitshow better. Let me go into why this is now an absolute certainty.

It seems to me that it’s EXTREMELY likely that the Russians, in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany, are going to hack directly into our election systems. Now, let’s go through the different scenarios of what happens next.

We Find Out Sooner Rather Than Later
Ok, let’s say Trump “wins” the 2020 election in exactly the same fashion as he did in 2016 — he loses the popular vote by a significant margin by wins the Electoral College by a few thousand votes in some major swing states. A lot of people will be upset, but it’s happened before, so we’ll just chalk it up to “shy Trump voters” or the mysterious power of the “boat vote.”

Then, a few days or so after we’ve settled down and we brace ourselves for Trumplandia squeezing us of all of freedoms, massive news breaks — someone, somewhere has discovered absolute proof that the Russians fucked with the election in a direct fashion. Despite they’re best efforts to get away clean, they left behind evidence of some sort and there’s absolute fucking proof that they did it. What’s more, with a little digging it starts to grow apparent that there might have even been some direct co-ordination between the Trump campaign (read: Trump) and the Russians to pull this perfect crime off.

A lot of people on Twitter will get excited. They will begin to assume that of course this means Trump has lost and we can maybe have nice things again. Not so fast. The very same ratfucking that Trump used not only with the Stormy Daniels situation but with the quid pro quo with the Ukrainians will kick in, only at a far rapid rate because we have to worry about the vote being certified and Electors voting.

Rudy pops out of his crypt. He rants about how it’s all fake news. He goes on CNN and acts like he’s about to have a stroke. He admits Trump did it. But he rants about how it’s all legal and no laws have been broken. He could even admit that it was illegal by the end of the interview. But, remember, not only will all of this be a political issue, but the clock will be ticking as to certifying the vote and the voting of the Electoral College.

To make a long story short — because of the dynamics of the months between election night and January 20th, Trump is absolutely going to win. Absolutely. So we could literally know that Trump essentially was a traitor and by the time it was all over with 38% of the electorate would be booking their vacations in Russia they’ll be so happy it all happened.

And spare me any notion that there might be protests or a civil war. I just don’t see it. Even if there were massive protests for weeks on end, a lot of people would just be upset about the few riots that might be associated with this. Or the whole thing would be ignored. Only if there was some sort of General Strike might that catch the eye of the fucking craven cocksucker Republicans enough for something, anything to be done about this treason.

I’m not exactly thrilled at the idea of an actual civil war. I guess if the above scenario happened an actual fighting civil war might happen, but the end game on that is so up to debate that I can’t even begin to map out what might happen.

We Find Out Later
In this scenario, it’s not November to January when we find out, it’s a few years into Trump’s second term. Though, given that Trump is going to consolidate power in his second term, if we don’t find out before Trump purges the media, then, lulz.

But let’s suppose we find out before Trump nationalizes The New York Times and forces WarnerMedia to merge CNN with OANN. All the same things I just described above will happen, only Trump MIGHT get impeached again. But, sadly, the same thing will happen as the first impeachment — nothing.

Remember, Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — so all he cares about is power. Nothing else matters.

As such, our slide into an autocrat managed democracy is a done deal. America has fallen. We’re nothing more than a vassal state of Russia at this point, we just don’t realize it yet.

Get out of the country while you still can.

Mulling The Possibility Of A Reproductive Rights ‘Dred Scott’ Decision


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two macro trends in the conservative movement make you say, “Hmmm.” One is how absolutely bloodthirsty MAGA-Qanon is becoming. They are so wrapped up in “owning the libs” that they are chomping at the bit to do away with politics altogether and just run around murdering people they don’t like.

The other macro trend is how absolute conservatives are in their desire to to something of a counter-revolution against the culture wars of the last few decades by stacking the Federal bench with as many young hack MAGA judges as they can possibly appoint while they have the power to do so.

This is an example of why I hate extremism.

Being so wrapped up in winning the culture wars after a number of social issues are already settled in the public eye might make conservative spooge their pants, but on a political front it might not be the best option for them. They are so consumed by their own Right wing echo chamber, that they are completely oblivious to the fact that if, say, not only is Roe V Wade overturned, but any form of contraception is effectively outlawed, that there might be significant backlash among a pretty big swath of voters, specifically — women.

Now, yes, I know we’re an autocratic managed democracy now and House Trump has destroyed American democracy under its jackboot. I know that lulz, nothing matters and I’m going to die in an ICE death camp soon enough. But there is a very real possibility that women across the political spectrum would be politically energized if there was something akin to a reproductive rights Dred Scott decision.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But it is a long-term thing to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

We Are So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A series of macro trends are all coming to a head very, very rapidly. In the United States, we all assume we will muddle through major political problems or simply punt them down the road until they’re moot.

But the election of 2020 is a unique political event. We already live in an autocratic managed democracy and Trump’s “victory” in 2020 will simply be the final nail in the coffin of an already dead republic. We’re going to drift in fits and starts, as we have for some time now, into an era of something along the lines of a semi-monarchical fascist state.

There are a few wild cards, of course.

One is Qanon.

It’s very easy to see that particular batshit insane element of the clusterfuck that is modern life growing so potent that some surreal — and extreme — things happen so rapidly that not until way, way, WAY too many people are dead in American Killing Fields do we finally do anything about it. It sounds hysterical now, but Qanon serves a very important purpose for a lot of dark forces at work in American culture and, so, lulz.

Autocrats never lose, so, really, the only minor hiccup in our immediate political future is when Trump “wins” and is extremely dumb and hamhanded about it all, what will be the reaction of the 38% of the electorate that is not in a personality death cult? We they get woke and take to the streets or will they simply shrug and resign themselves to being “Good Germans?”

But, in general, darkness has fallen over the United States. The bad guys have won. Either we’re an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or, because of Qanon, we turn into something a lot more like Nazi Germany than we’re will to admit to ourselves.

I honestly can’t game out which end of that spectrum is more likely. All I know is we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked for a long time. My current guess is about 40 years, given current demographic trends. Throw in global climate change, a limited nuclear war with the DPRK and the possibility of a Singularity and, well, things don’t look so great right now.

Again, if you can, get out of the country.

‘A House Divided’ — Unionism In The Age Of MAGA-Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m by nature of a Lincoln Unionist. As such, I grow alarmed at the very idea that the Biden camp might, in desperation, encourage “Cascadia” (CA, OR, WA) to threaten to secede as part of a negotiating tactic once it becomes clear that Trump & Barr are going to ratfuck their way post-election to a “win.”

There are a number of reasons why this is, on the face of it, a dumb idea. The theory behind Biden doing this is they can get some much-needed Constitutional reforms (even though in the end House Trump would say in power.) Given how absolutely untrustworthy House Trump is, any notion that you could get concessions out of them that they might actually honor is ridiculous.

I, of course, don’t want any violence at all. But if the absolute worst happened, it makes a lot more sense for Blue States to stand and fight than to leave the Union. Now, to be clear, all of this is almost impossible for me to game out. I simply have no idea how, exactly, an actual “civil war” in the United States would work out.

But, as I’ve said, the first tip off we will have that this is Serious, is there will be significant political consolidation in Red and Blue States. This will happen in the form of places like Fox News, WSJ and NY Post literally being driven out of the city by angry Blue mobs. Meanwhile, it’s likely that within Red States all those fucking MAGA-Qanon fascists are going to begin to actively hunt down and murder liberals, hoping to drive liberals out of their states altogether. This is likely to happen very, very quickly as the two sides begin to figure out their war aims.

I think, in a sense, the scenario that suggests that Biden might even seriously contemplate such a “nuclear option” is really an expression of similar desperate attempts to keep the Union together during the 1860 – 1861 period. Even though on paper “Cascadia” could bounce out of the Union and do well, all attempt such attempt would do is give the US Military cover to put down the rebellion, just like they did the first one.

So, it seems as though a far better course of action would be to stay in the Union and attempt to court people like James Mattis (and others) who maybe are conservative but not MAGA so at least you would have their military training to tap into. No need to alienate them by attempting to leave the Union altogether

Also, remember, MAGA-Qanon, while very passionate and bloodthirsty, is only 38% of the electorate. No need to destroy the Union for that. Far better to for the majority of people who AREN’T completely insane to get their shit together and figure out how to re-unite the nation they all love.

But, I don’t know. It’s very obvious Interior Minister Barr is going to drop whatever legal nukes he has to for Trump to stay in office. So, unless the American people REALLY shock me, I think this is all moot. We’re just going to quietly slip into an autocratic managed democracy and that will be that.

What We Can Learn From The 1st American Civil War As We Lurch Towards The 2nd (Maybe)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally think anyone — regardless of political stripe — is being a bloodthirsty moron to be giddy at the prospect of a “Second American Civil War.” War is hell. It sucks. I don’t want it.

But it definitely seems as though should Trump not win election outright on Election Night even though the Russians lived up to their end of the bargain after Trump pulled 1/3 of our troops out of Germany, that the more difficult it is for him to “win” the more thuggish and ham-handed he will become. As such, Barr’s post-election ratfucking can only go so far.

There might come a point when the Blue States and Red States are actually at each other’s throats on a military level.

The beginning of the ACW1 indicates that after the shock wears off, the dynamics of history are not something anyone can easily predict. The thing that idiot MAGA-Qanon people are so delusional about is they seem to think that just because they have Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk on their side that somehow they’re going to win outright the moment such political violence begins to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is after some desperate last-ditch efforts to prevent it all, there will be significant consolidation in the respective parts of the country. Once it sinks in to the average American that they have to pick a side, no matter what, then some pretty fucking surreal things may happen. People you wouldn’t expect finally jump ship from the MAGA-Qanon personality cult might actually do it.

Or, put another way, the opening days of any civil war are going to be full of confusion. Both sides are going to wait for the other to make the first move. Lincoln, of course, was a genius at this and forced the South to officially start the war when he attempt to re-enforce Fort Sumter. The specifics will be completely different because, well, Trump is a high-functioning moron who will thrash about on Twitter as everything finally collapses.

One crucial issue is what the goals of each side would be as the civil war began. A lot of people think the Blue States would simply want to bounce, but I have some serious doubts. It makes a lot more sense that any civil war would be a pitched battle for the soul of the country.

Another interesting thing is Trump has a solid 38% of the electorate. That’s it. About 38% of the electorate is bloodthirsty enough, enough in the personality death cult that they would lunge at the opportunity to make “Q’s” dream of a liberal free America a reality.

But there are a shit-ton of Americans who simply want to live a peaceful life in a free country. And, as such, it’s reasonable to believe that Blue States (once they get their shit together and start taking things seriously) have a lot going for them.

One issue is, while I can generally game out things to Election Day, after that, I lose any ability to predict what might happen. So, yeah, we have postal service ratfucking. We have the bullshit Durham Investigation. We have Russians hacking direction into our election systems. All those things are a given.

But if somehow all those things fail to throw the election to House Trump, I honestly don’t know what is going to happen. It’s all up in the air. Remember, when you’re actually living through history, there’s no narrative or value. We GIVE it a narrative and value after the fact. We do so in hindsight so we — and future generations — can grasp what happened and why.

I will note that the first few years of ACW1 were years in which it was very touch and go for the Union. It wasn’t until Lincoln decided to make the war a war of liberation that the dynamic of the war changed significantly. So, I would tell Neo-Confederates whose political thought is nothing more than a “South Will Rise Again” grunt that history — especially in times of existential crisis — doesn’t go in a straight line.

But what do I know. The dystopian hellscape is already here. I just want to finish my novel.