I’ve long talked about “A Big Ugly” happening if Trump mysteriously — especially now — “doesn’t lose.” Well, it’s at least possible that a unique set of political circumstances we’re just going to punt the consequences of the existential rot facing America down the road a few years.
Or maybe not.
I still can’t imagine Interior Minister Bill Barr just giving up and letting Trump actually lose. It makes no sense. But if somehow Barr DOESN’T pull something of his butt to keep Trump in power, then it’s very possible that for about 50% of the population the Biden Era will simply be a House Trump Interregnum. And either they try to violently end that interregnum, or they win in 2024 and force the hand of the OTHERSIDE and all my nightmare scenarios happen that way.
Or, put another way, seeing a MAGA rally face-to-face this weekend was a real wakeup call. MAGA isn’t going anywhere and their devotion to Trump is so absolute that it’s inevitable that they’re going to destroy the United States one way or another.
The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.
Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.
But what, exactly, might Barr do?
I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”
All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.
The ironic thing is what’s going on right now is much like what happened in 2016, without, of course, the pretty good chance of a fucking civil war. At each step along the way in 2016, angry Clinton supporters deluded themselves into thinking they had a chance to stop Trump from winning.
Flash forward 4 years and holy shit. The country is split 50/50 and all Trump needs is a way to figure out how to stage a coup in such a way that MAGA people can own libs on Twitter by saying Trump won the “legal” votes. That’s it, that’s all the want. And they are doing this as if it’s totally value free and there will be no consequences.
Before I continue, some context. These three events will be happening in the context of Bill Barr using the same media narrative management techniques he used with the Mueller Report AND the very real threat that something totally unexpected happens that gives Trump his long-sought after “Reichstag Fire.” It could be an Oklahoma City type explosion in a Blue State, a shocking murder of a major political leader or a war with the DPRK or Iran. Anything to take our attention away from the election so Trump can simply never leave.
Certification Crisis This is already happening. In theory, state legislatures have the ability to name their own elections without any regard to the will of the people. The last time this actually happened, I think, was the election of 1876. There might be a lot of practical problems to prevent this from actually happening, but Republicans are so enraged that the dear leader might actually lose, that they will be willing to move heaven and earth to get as close as possible to Trump winning as they possibly can. It’s all about building momentum and changing the media narrative. That’s it. And, of course, “owning the libs.”
The Elector Intimidation Crisis For all their talk about “legal votes,” this may be what Republicans are really talking about. The only “legal votes” that are cast for president are those of the Electors. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump doxes all the Electors on Twitter and “jokes” to MAGA to “remind them of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” They are human beings, after all, and the prospect of having to join the Witness Protection Program for the rest of their life if they don’t vote for Trump might give a few of them pause for thought. Especially if a few of them have already been murdered by some deranged MAGA person. This could really happen.
Trump’s January Freak Out If we somehow manage to get past 1 and 2, then we face the worst of all of these — it beginning to sink in to Trump that he’s actually going to leave office. He has solid month or so to snap and finally freak the fuck out. This is when he will grow extremely unpredictable as it begins to sink in that he may actually leave office and face legal jeopardy. It’s possible that the final Republican litmus test will be if they had to be physically removed from office just like the Dear Leader. So it might not be just Trump we have to remove from the White House, it could be Pompeo at State, too. (The list goes on.) Or, Trump could pardon himself, fire half the Federal government and then abscond with AF1 to Moscow or Pyongyang.
This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.
So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.
Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.
This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.
In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.
Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.
Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.
And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.
I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.
So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.
Here’s the state of play before we have a potential coup. On one hand, Biden forces believe they’ve won. The race has been called by the media and Biden is quite literally measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.
Meanwhile, the shock is beginning to wear off for House Trump and they’re slowly beginning to form a plan for a coup. Or, an extra-political act that only about 50% of the population will think is a coup.
Really, it seems as though they’re using the spaghetti gambit right now — throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. But one thing is clear — the more difficult is for Trump to stay in power, the more radical, brazen and craven TrumpBarr’s anti-democratic tactics will become.
If it’s not denying Biden the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be directly threatening the lives of Electors. Twitter liberals REALLY need to get woke to what may be about to happen. As it stands, they’re completely oblivious to how dangerous things are now and how dark and dire they may be about to become.
It seems we’re in for something of a suckerpunch. The first strike will be something like the refusal to certify votes. Something, anything, to throw things up in the air so they go to SCOTUS where Republicans know, absolutely know, they will win.
All they need is a thin veer of legality so the MAGA base can “own the libs” on Twitter again. That’s all they need and all they want. And, what’s more when the 50% of the population that sees this for what it is — a coup — freaks the fuck out, then Trump can invoke the Insurrection Act. Game over.
So it definitely seems as though I was right all along — we’re in the twilight day of the American First Republic. The question is, of course, do we have it in us to found the Second Republic?
I have no idea what the endgame is. Maybe I’m wrong about all of this. I can’t predict the future. But I do generally know Trump’s nature and he DID say he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a vote. Replace a person with a Republic and, well, here we are.
At the end of the American Civil War, Gen. Robert E. Lee was given the option of carrying on a guerilla war after Richmond fell. Thankfully, for all of us, he declined.
Well, it definitely seems as though we aren’t going to be so lucky with Trump should he lose. (I still think either the Russians or Barr will make all of this moot and Trump, like all autocrats, will “not lose.”) It’s possible that Trump’s ultimate legacy is he pressed the issue — he went out of his way to incite violence.
So, while under most normal circumstances, we would all be really tense but in the end we would look back and laugh at how hysterical we were, it’s very possible that Trump’s “final piviot” will be the destruction of the United States out of a combination of spite and self-preservation.
There are a number of ways this might happen. One, the most obvious, is he declares victory as early as possible, which is a signal to his supporters to fuck shit up. Or, after sulking a few days, his insanity and his criminality finally fuse in a rather dramatic fashion and he goes out in something of a blaze of glory. He actually becomes transactional in his efforts to destroy the country.
He could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy specifically so people like Obama and Biden (and the entire “Deep State”) are frogwalked in a very public fashion. This, in itself, might be enough to cause a civil war. Or, put another way, Trump could lose in a landslide and start a civil war all on his own because he doesn’t want to go to prison.
It could get so bad that even Republicans begin to grow alarmed, and the whole Big Lie at the center of MAGA’s takeover of the Republican Party is exposed.
And, of course, if that doesn’t work, Trump flies AF1 to Moscow right before Jan. 20th and spills all our secrets to the Russians.
On a strictly political level, it seems as though Biden is in a very good position to have something of a landslide tomorrow. And, yet, there is my lingering fear that Trump didn’t remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany for no reason. He may have done it for the specific reason that he wants government sponsored Russian hackers to change votes in his favor.
I’m not optimistic.
If this doesn’t happen, then I will be completely flabbergasted. It will be inexplicable. Everything about both Trump’s native personality and his relationship to the Russians would indicate he didn’t just randomly decide to pull such a dick move on the Germans so close to the election.
One thing to remember is two things are careening towards each other — a political landslide for Biden and TrumpBarr’s total unwillingness to leave power without extracting a pound flesh. That’s a recipe for The Big Ugly because if Trump loses the Mandate of Heaven in a self-evident fashion and, yet, weirdly wins a second term, it’s very likely things are going to get bumpy pretty quick.
And that, in itself, may be the point. It may be that Trump really would rather destroy the United States than leave office — something I’ve been ranting about since he was elected.
What’s more, even if Trump is demonstrably trounced on Election Night, it’s very possible that’s just the beginning. TrumpBarr may go to ridiculous lengths to fight any Biden victory, even if they lose in a landslide. That, in turn, will, well, cause a massive shitshow, the likes of which we’ve not seen since 1860.
Among the things I fear are, massive violence that happens after Trump declares victory even though it’s self-evident he’s going to lose. TrumpBarr fucking with the certification of Electors — no matter what — so state legislatures name MAGA Electors instead of Biden Electors.
And, speaking of Electors, what House Trump wants is make things so muddled that SCOTUS rules that the MAGA legislatures of a significant number of battle ground states can name the Electors, no matter what. Or, put another way, Electors and their selection is the absolute weakness link in the Constitution. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where TrumpBarr win through violence and general ratfucking.
That, too, is a situation where there might be a civil war or revolution — The Big Ugly. So, in a sense, it’s possible that Election Night will be just the beginning of a very long, very painful episode in American political history that involves far more deaths than any of us could possibly imagine right now.
Or not.
What’s more, if, after a month or so Trump miraculously loses in the courts, we will then enter the “salt the earth on the way out” phase of things. Trump will pardon hundreds of his cronies — including Jared’s dad — and maybe even himself!
And, in the end, after he’s destroyed as much of the government as possible and ruined the Executive branch for a generation, Trump could very well leave the country around, say, January 10th and land in Moscow. He then quits and spends all his time with Russian hookers and telling Putin all of our secrets.
I have been so busy thinking about how valuable Trump is to the Russians that I totally missed something — maybe they have come to believe that Trump is such a craven idiot that he will be more destructive if he actually loses. In that case, they don’t have to fuck with votes — even though they might still do it.
They just sit back and watch Trump be, well, Trump.
He stages a coup and either way the Russians get what they want. Either he is successful and America is nothing more than autocratic Trumplandia or he fails and we have to go through The Big Ugly.
The one thing we have to be clear about, though, Barr is likely going to give Trump a thin veneer of legality for any coup he may attempt.
I can’t believe any of this is real. I hope I’m wrong. I really do. I don’t want this. I only keep coming up with worse case scenarios to make myself feel better.
Biden wins handily on Election Night, but not all votes are counted.
Trump sues Wednesday morning to throw out all mail-in votes and wins because, lulz, SCOTUS is full of MAGA hack nows.
Within moments of the SCOTUS decision, enraged New Yorkers attack Trump Tower and FOX News’ HQ
This allows Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.”
Unprecedented political violence begins to erupt, to the point that Blue people in Red states and Red people in Blue states don’t feel safe anymore — domestic political refugees begin to bounce around the country.
There’s a secession crisis as California openly debates leaving the Union. This is where things grow hard to predict — does the state attempt to leave or does it stay and fight?
The entire country begins to implode as even individuals within the U.S. Military begin to take sides.
Two rival governments are established. One in NYC and one in Montgomery, Alabama. (The DC area has completely imploded into civil war.)
Virginia and Florida completely implode as intra-state regional differences are hardened and exaggerated as both Blue and Red grow ever more radicalized.
I have no idea what the endgame for this would be.
I’m still not prepared to believe the Russians would allow Trump to lose. It makes no sense. Why allow such a valuable asset to be forced out of power? Why not hack into our election systems then “accidentally on purpose” get found out. A civil war breaks out when Republicans lulz this and win at SCOTUS. The Russians get the destruction of their main geopolitical foe.
But, let’s daydream. Let’s play pretend.
Politico recently did an article on Trump being a possible “flight risk.” I haven’t read the article — just saw the headline — so maybe they covered this already, but let’s mull where Trump might go.
There are two obvious places — Moscow and Pyongyang.
The reason Trump might leave the country is simple: he doesn’t want to go to prison. Now, of course, given how Trump and Senate Republicans have turned 1/3 of the Federal bench into a MAGA cheering squad, it’s easy to imagine a situation where SCOTUS not only validates Trump pardoning himself, but somehow pulls some bullshit explanation for why he can’t be indicted for state crimes, either.
That definitely seems a lot more likely than Trump leaving the country in a rather astonishing — and historic — fashion before January 20th.
But if Trump did do something so bonkers, flying to Moscow on AF1 then quitting right before January 20th definitely seems the most obvious. He would have the biggest country in the world to play with and he could spill all the state secrets he liked directly to the Russians.
I wouldn’t completely dismiss the DPRK, however. I say this because Trump definitely seems to have a personal affinity for “Little Rocket Man” and it would make a lot of sense for him to at least begin his post-presidential career hanging out with Kim Jung Un for a few months before flying to Moscow.
The only reason why I doubt Trump would do such a thing — even if he is a deranged moron — is even he knows because of SCOTUS he could beat any state rap and staying in the country would allow him to fuck with future elections and become the political Singularity of the Republican Party.
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