It is inevitable that if Trump wins in the fall that he will be allowed to run for a third term. Probably what will happen is a “creative” interpretation of the Constitution by SCOTUS as is meant by a president being limited to two terms.
Or, it could be, that Trump is so lazy and dumb that he just runs without care for what SCOTUS has to say. It would be an “official act” for him to break the Constitution, so lulz.
In short, the USA is far, far more unstable than any of us realize. I want peace, but I am worried.
First, some context: I do not see myself as any sort of “revolutionary.” I just love to run scenarios. So, relative to me, this is just running the, “How would you depose Trump?” scenario. I mean no harm. I don’t actually want any of this to happen in the real world.
But I do love a good scenario, so here goes.
The key thing to remember is to remember both how decentralize the USA is on an existential basis and how Godawful dumb and lazy Trump is. So, if Trump manages to become POTUS again — which looks like he is as of right now — his natural inclination will be to go “full tyrant” within moments of being sworn in.
This is where things get….uhhh….interesting.
Way, way, way, WAY too many people — especially older well-meaning white liberals on Facebook — seem to think just posting a sick burn of Trump on social media means jack shit. It does not. It just makes you look like a fool. So, if Trump really does go “full tyrant,” well, some one somewhere is going to have to risk some “lives and sacred honor” in the real world.
In general, it seems like easiest course of action for Blues if Trump goes full tyrant would be a General Strike — people in Blue States just don’t go to work until their conditions are met.
I could see the main condition being Trump and his veep stepping down (if the Speaker of the House is a Democrat) or in some way forcing SCOTUS to “review” their decision about the 14th Amendment and Trump. But even if the “good guys” won this initial victory, a civil war would break out because Texas, etc., would be enraged that Trump had to step down.
And that doesn’t begin to address how Trump would not leave office easily. A lot of people would get hurt because he would send Red National Guard troops into Blue States — even if there was no General Strike!
So, let’s call the whole thing off. Rather than any talk of “deposing” Trump, just leave the country if you can.
All I got when it comes to “deposing” Tyrant Trump, should it come to that, is a Blue General Strike. If the general American economy cratered because Blues — and specifically women — just didn’t show up to work for a few days, maybe the U.S. Military might be…persuaded…to get SCOTUS to review its 14th Amendment ruling about Trump?
Maybe?
Anything that happened would have to have a thin veneer of legality to it. But, of course, even if Trump just quit, him being forced out would cause a civil war because Reds would leave the Union — even if they were ok with the new MAGA veep turned POTUS.
(Talk about surreal.)
Though, I suspect if Trump were deposed that….arrangements….would be made so a non-MAGA POTUS would become president soon afterwards. I don’t want any of this to happen because….uhhh…the whole thing would be a total catastrophe.
The key issue whenever you think about what Trump might do if he wins is how stupid and lazy he is. It is clear that autocracy has the historical momentum at this point and the US — at least the Red parts — have decided that our future lies with some sort of white Christian ethnostate.
But — and this “but” is key — the person history has designated to turn America into the inevitable is so fucking dumb and lazy that he could very well be deposed soon after he starts to go full tyrant (probably through a Blue General Strike.)
Or something. Something like that.
I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere, but I do love to run scenarios, so you get this bit of drivel that no one should read or take seriously. I can’t predict the future, but, on a macro basis, it definitely seems as though Something Bad is going to happen one way or another in the USA starting in late 2024, early 2025.
At the moment, I would guess it will go something like this — Trump wins, goes full tyrant, gets deposed then a civil war happens when Red States leave the Union. But that’s just one of a variety of scenarios that exist on a pretty wide spectrum.
Anyway. Who knows what is going to happen. I am very worried, I must admit. Very, very worried.
There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.
So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.
Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.
What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.
And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”
No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.
Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.
Good times!
I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.
One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.
It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.
They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.
MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.
Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”
Oh boy.
All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.
So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.
On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.
MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.
But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.
I continue to just not know one way or another what to expect this fall. It definitely SEEMS as though the conditions exist for us to collectively lurch into a dark and uncertain future because of MAGA Nazis.
But, at the moment, I just don’t know.
A lot will depend on how close the election is in the fall. If it’s really close, then, oh boy, buckle up. There would just be too much of a temptation for MAGA Nazis to pull some sort of shenanigans.
But, really even if it’s NOT close, there are no assurances that Trump won’t rant about the need for a National Divorce for the pure personal reason of him not wanting to go prison. The country is primed and ready for us to destroy ourselves on way or another because of “vibes.”
The two sides just don’t like each other and MAGA Nazis, in particular, because of macro changes in culture, thing the center-Left is out to get them. The believe this so much that they often pull some pretty crazy scenarios out of their asses just to justify the absolute worst things they can think of for people who simply don’t agree with them.
A lot will hinge on states like Texas. If Trump loses and he really leans into the idea that conservatives need their own nation so they can be “left alone” then….maybe? Maybe Texas, because of how fascist and autocratic their state Republican Party is, could call up a secessionist convention?
And if Trump wins, it’s not like things are going to be all that peacefully. My key fear is that Trump is so lazy and so fucking stupid that he might go full tyrant on us to the point that he’s deposed in some way, which, in turn would cause….Red States to begin to leave the Union.
As I’ve said before, that leaves the following scenario as the only way we may it out alive in 2024 — Biden wins, Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and no one listens to him. Then he announces his run for 2028 and we punt all of the structural issues that might cause the greatest nation in the world to collapse because of “vibes” down the road another four years.
I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.
Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.
The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City. Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do. Mass Migration As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag. Secessionist Conventions If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?
World War Three If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.
I like to think of myself as a survivor. So as we careen towards the 2024 presidential silly season with the greater-than-zero chance that all hell will beak loose because of it, I find myself dwelling on what I will do if my worse fears come true.
I’ve written about this before, but my concerns continue to linger. I’m kind of a Blue spot in a sea of Red where I live and if the country collapses into stark worlds of Red and Blue — something’s gotta give. I just won’t be able to live in where I live anymore because my politics will inevitably be figured out and, besides, I would prefer not to live in Trumplandia, anyway.
I suppose if things got really bad, I could make a trek to Richmond where I have some relatives — but that would only be a stopgap measure because if things have gotten so bad that I have to flea my home, Virginia will be in chaos. In chaos to the point that I — and many others — will be fleeing the state for more stable states.
Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of revolution or civil war, Virginia will be one of the first states to collapse into political bloodshed. I suppose the longer-term solution to my problems in the event of a civil war / revolution would be to head farther north to something north of the Mason – Dixon line.
I suppose it’s possible I’ll endup in a big refugee camp in somewhere like Pennsylvania, update New York or Maine. The dream, of course, would be to get to enjoy some fun new life in New York City. But, alas, the more I think about it, the more I probably will be stuck in a refugee camp.
Anyway, all of that is “hysterical doom shit.” And very, very speculative. It’s at least possible that somehow, magically, we’ll be saved by some sort of Black Swan event or Biden will win, Trump will fail to cause a National Divorce and I can keep trying to sell my first novel.
When thinking about what might happen in Trump’s second term, there is a key thing to contemplate: is Trump too dumb and lazy to go full tyrant while still pretending to care about the rule of law?
Is it possible that his political and historic purpose is simply to destroy the United States by totally and completely making the unpreceded move of going full tyrant without giving a shit about anything but staying in power? I only broach this because he repeatedly during his first term seemed to indicate that he was prepared to just extend his time in office without an election because he “deserved it.”
If he did such a thing during his second term, then that would probably be the set up for a revolution / civil type situation that would destroy not only the United States in the near term, but the entire post WW2 liberal order. WW3 would probably happen and billions of people might die specifically because of the actions of one Donald J. Trump.
There is a chance, of course, that somehow, someway, Trump is convinced to press for a Constitutional Convention that would put MAGA Enabling Acts into the document. Doing such a thing would at least keep Trump within the boundaries of the law — even if the law was now extremely fascist.
So, that’s kind of the spectrum we face in a second Trump Administration. On one end, the country collapses into revolution / civil war and chaos and on the other, we become something more like Putin’s Russia. I’m aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment, but all signs are pointing towards something along those lines being our choice.
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