Tag: Tyrant Trump

America’s Fate Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025 Rests On State Republican Parties

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Yeah, right.

The thing too many media popinjays miss about the looming threat of a civil war in the United States is that on a state level, the Republican Party has crossed the Rubicon on the issue — at least on a rhetorical basis. So, the question of the moment is, at at state level, is the Republican Party prepared to put its money where its mouth is on the issue of secession.

Just from my discussion of my mainstream conservative Traditionalists relatives — whom I love dearly — it definitely seems as though if there was a sudden lurch towards a secession crisis that they would be prepared to follow along.

Of course, any secession crisis would be a royal clusterfuck for a number of reasons. There are a lot of Blue dots in Red States. And there are states –like Virginia — which are actually two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who fucking hate each others guts.

So, Virginia, in particular, would likely be the site where the first actual violence of a Second American Civil War might occur. I could see there be coups and counter coups as the two sides fight over if the commonwealth is going to stay in the Union or not.

What’s more, that particular situation is easy compared to areas of the Deep South where you would have the dominate white Republican Party pushing for secession and the large African American community balking. That is a very complicated situation that, if not handled properly, could possibly lead to a historic race war.

I know, that sounds like my usual “hysterical doom shit,” but that’s what we’re facing at the moment. Once you take the idea of secession seriously, you start to come up with a lot of very, very dark scenarios.

Win Or Lose, Trump May Spark A Second American Civil War Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party is now, on a structural basis, primed and ready to start a civil war by calling up Secessionist Conventions. Now, I fear this could happen both if Trump loses or wins. It will happen if he wins if he is promptly deposed in some way — either by impeachment and conviction or by the U.S. Military — or it MAY happen if he loses.

The issue of Trump sparking a civil war by losing is really difficult to game out at this point because it is, on the face of it, very, very silly to think any such thing might happen. It just is staggering to imagine that the most powerful nation in the world might collapse into civil war because of “vibes.”

But, here we are.

And, yet, now, at the end of 2023, I still can’t tell you with any certainty that even if Trump screams bloody murder about the 2024 election being “stolen” from him that any state legislatures will listen to him.

It could be that there might be — some — politically inspired violence, but, on the whole, Trump just rants and ultimately fades into politically obscurity.

I just don’t know.

The Question of 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The question of 2024 is, of course, how bad will 2025 be? As of now, late 2023, it seems within reason that either Trump loses and we have a civil war, or Trump wins and we have some sort of revolution then civil war in 2025.

And, yet, as 2020 proved, no one can predict that future.

So, it’s very possible that through some unexpected twist of fate, Trump will no only lose, but fade into political oblivion in some non-violent way. That’s all we can hope for at the moment.

But who knows. I know I don’t. It could really go either way. One reason is, Trump has made it clear that he will only accept his victory as legitimate. Meanwhile, he is a vessel, and avatar for a lot of bent up rage among white Christian (men).

So, I just don’t know. It really could go either way. And if we punt our problems down the road again, I will be very grateful.

The Thing That — Thankfully — Hasn’t Happen Yet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things haven’t happened yet as we potentially careening towards a civil war / revolution. Among them is two Congressmen haven’t hurt each other in any significant way within the walls of Congress. The other is any sort of coordinated mass casualty event inspired by our political divisions.

It could be that we will avoid either one of these dark events and STILL have a revolution / civil war type situation. I’m really worried about places like New York City should Trump get re-elected because there are so many Red media outlets based there. If things really got hairy, I could see mass chaos on that front.

But, like I said, maybe we can avoid that type of thing from happening. No fate but what we make and all that. Yet it is clear that the bolts continue to pop off the United States at an alarming rate. The big question is how bad things will get.

Remember, if Trump loses, that, unto itself, might evoke some of the political violence I’m afraid might happen. And if things got really bad, Trump could rant about a National Divorce to the point that Red States take him up on it and start to leave the Union.

Trump is just a human chaos agent and we have to prepare for the greater-than-zero chance that he will, unto himself, cause some sort of mass political violence no matter what happens.

‘Show Your Papers’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though if Trump becomes POTUS again that the issue of proving citizenship will become the central issue of the day. If you’re actively trying to deport 20 million people — many of them with American children — then you find yourself in something of a quandary.

What is going to happen is Birthright Citizenship will be abolished one way or another and then things will only get worse. The greatly expanded ICE infrastructure will be used for not just rounding people up — which is popular with the MAGA base — but also coming after, well, people like me. I’m a drunk crank who occasionally writes that Trump can suck my cock.

Just like how we built the A-Bomb to go after Germany, only to use it on Japan, so, too, will we build out this massive Gestapo to kick undocumented people out of the country, only to go after Jews, gays, the mentally ill and drunk cranks. It’s the oldest story in the world — the law of unintended consequences.

It definitely will be interesting to see how everything works out. I can still see a revolution then civil war happening in 2025 if Trump goes “full tyrant.”

Not Great, Bob

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve decided that tonight will be my New Year’s Eve and I’m quite intoxicated. It seems the issue of the moment is the 14th Amendment says what it says.


And, yet, we all know that ding-dong Trump is going to weasel his way back on the ballot on all 50 states. So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. There are no easy answers — apparently even, “What was the Civil War about” is no longer an easy answer.

I have to go back to how totally fucked up the whole situation is. We all know that Trump should be banned from the ballet given the wording of the 14th Amendment, and, yet, here we are, having a pissing match over the exact wording of the words that clearly say ding-dong Trump should not be allowed on the ballet.

Whatever. No one listens to me. Barring something pretty astonishing, we’re going to have to deal with two old guys fighting it out in 2024.

The 20 Million Body Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I totally validate the idea that there is a “crisis at the border,” I do have a problem with anyone who suggests we try to deport all those people en mass overnight. Not only would you would have to spend billions to build out the existing ICE infrastructure, but you’re setting yourself up for a huge amount of abuse by doing so.

There are just a huge number of problems with trying to deport 20 million undocumented people. You thought tearing families apart at the border was bad, just wait until its 20 million people who have contributed a great deal to the country over the last 20 or more years.

And I simply don’t believe people who scoff at the idea that the new, greatly expanded ICE infrastructure would not be horribly abused. You would have to be prepared to “check the papers” of people on a regular basis. That would be a fundimental change in how everyday Americans interacted with the government.

The whole endeavor would make the country a lot — A LOT — more unstable. The economy would collapse and the fabric of the country would be torn to shreds. And, yet, here we are, with ding-dong Trump seriously talking about deporting 20 million people.

Like I said, I accept that there is a crisis at the border, but I would prefer to come up with some solution other than destroying our freedoms to address the issue.

Pondering A Third Trump Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I realize that by definition a Trump second term would be extremely unstable. I say this because first of all, all the tyrannical things Trump wants to do won’t happen in a political vacuum in either political direction — Left or Right.

First of all, there will be a lot of vocal anti-anti-Trump people who will rationalize any tyrannical thing Trump does in 2025 by saying, “the people have spoken.” Meanwhile, if Trump really abuses power in a tyrannical way, anti-Trump forces will have two possible reactions at their disposal — impeachment or somehow deposing Trump using the power of the U.S. Military. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING.)

Impeachment would hinge on if Democrats won the House or not in 2024. And people would have to get REALLY WORKED UP even then. So, in a sense, the difference between politically removing Trump via impeachment and overthrowing him via a military coup would not really be all that different. In both instances, you would probably have to organize a General Strike to get the point across AND there is a good chance that Red States would begin to leave the Union in protest.

So, I dunno what to tell you. Hopefully, things won’t get so bad. Hopefully, something will happen and Trump will just scurry away into political oblivion.

The Warped Nature of American Politics Is Enough to Make You Throw Up Your Hands In Dismay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.

They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.

The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.

That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?

The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.

The Idea Of A Civil War or Revolution Because Of Trump Is Just Too Profound To Comprehend in Late 2023

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Talk about projection.

At the moment, now, in late 2023, I’m not prepared to predict that all of my hysterical doom shit might actually happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. It’s just not easy to comprehend that the greatest nation in the world might collapse into civil war / revolution because malignant ding-dong Trump goes full tyrant.

The only reason why I think it’s possible is the Republican Party has so radicalized that any additional pressure on our political system might be enough for the whole thing to come crashing down. We’re dealing with macro demographic and political trends that definitely SEEM to all be heading towards some sort of climax in late 2024, early 2025.

But it could that, just like in 2020, we manage to punt our problems down the road another four years and all my dire predictions will look rather silly. And that’s the outcome I want. It’s not like I *want* the United States to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.

All I can say is, wait and see. Everything is still up in the air and could go either way.