America May Be Finally Felled By…Vibes?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is how the vibes are off in America, no matter how well the economy is actually doing. People are just unhappy and grumpy. It makes you wonder what the fuck is going on in America, why this is the case.

It definitely seems as though we’re going to vote malignant ding-dong Donald Trump back into office because we have just given up because of bad vibes. And, yet, as I have said before, I think maybe we should not fear this particular situation, but embrace it.

I say this because — we’re fucked.

Because of long term macro demographic changes in the United States, the Republican Party is now a pure, uncut fascist party. And, really, it’s just a matter of time that because of the ebb and flow of any semi-functioning democracy that one of the two major parties will get power again.

As such, of all the people to attempt to transition us into a fascist autocracy, Trump is probably the “best” of the available options. And, given how bad he will be in his tyranny, maybe….the good guys will win sooner rather than later?

I’m not advocating anything, but if I had to organize an General Strike against a American tyrant, I should would rather do it against Red King Trump I than anyone else who might be available.

But, hopefully, it won’t come to that.

Is Trump An American Caesar?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long believed that Trump is NOT a great man of history like Caesar. But I do think he is a historical and constitutional torpedo headed towards the American ship of state. The key issue is — Trump is, just like Biden, old as hell. And Trump isn’t in the greatest of health because of his weight.

So, there is every reason to believe that Trump could destroy everything…then it will be his MAGA Nazi successor who will do the mop up work. Or, even less conclusively, it could be that the process of turning America into a white Christian ethnostate is half done.

It could be that Trump gets us as far as starting the process of crushing American democracy through a rouge Constitutional Convention…then shuffles off this mortal coil. That would cause even more chaos and uncertainty because…then what?

I think the key thing is that the Republican Party is not fascist and it’s just a question of if we collectively shrug when they attempt to turn us into a fascist state, or if we do something about it. (Not advocating anything.)

The next 18 months will be….interesting, not matter what.

The Mad Red King

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing to remember about all of this “dictator” talk by Trump is he just wants that idea rolling around people’s minds should he get re-elected. It will, in his ding-dong brain — give him more wiggle room when it comes to what he can actually do.

While I hate to compare someone as lazy and dumb as Trump to an actual Great Man of history, it is easy to compare Trump as Julius Caesar. Just like Caesar, Trump could be a transitional figure for our hobbled Republic. It could be that for no other reason than Trump is old, fat and lazy as fuck that it won’t be him who turns us into a Russian-style autocracy, but, rather his next Republican successor.

But all of this won’t happen in a political or historical vacuum. The United States is not a one-to-one with the late Roman Republic, as much it might be easy to assume that it is. The US is more likely to collapse into revolution and civil war than it is to peacefully transition into autocracy — especially under the ham-handed “guidance” of someone like Trump.

And, remember, after Caesar’s death, there was a huge civil war. So, I think rather than us assuming Trump is an American Caesar, we need to think seriously about the global implications of the world’s hyperpower buckling into autocracy, revolution and civil war.

Trump Isn’t Hitler. He’s Pol Pot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While it’s easy to compare Trump to Hitler — and the two men do share a lot in common — I would suggest someone else to compare him to: Pol Pot. The reason why I say this is, if the worst happens, I could totally see Trump demanding the cities be emptied for some sort of American Killing Fields.

Pol Pot

Or maybe it wouldn’t be Trump but someone vaguly acting in his name would would do it.

But the point remains — Pol Pot hated a lot of the same types of people that Trump and his movement hates.

If things get really, really bad in the USA as it transitions to Trumplandia…oh boy.

A 2024 Black Swan: What Am I Missing?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If 2020 proved anything, it’s that I just can’t predict the future. As such, I keep searching my mind to think up what I could possibly be missing about late 2024, early 2025 that would somehow give us an offramp from all my “hysterical doom shit.”

At the moment, I got squat.

It seems we’re going to lurch into a very dark and turbulent fate starting around November 2024 and things could be pretty rough for a number of years after that.

Or not. I just don’t know.

The most obvious thing that might throw everything up in the air is some sort of “health incident” that one or both of the old codgers who are running for president might experience. As for Trump, I don’t wish physical ill on him for no other reason than if ANYTHING happened to that fucker, the country might collapse into severe political violence not seen since the death of Martian Luther King Jr — only this time it would be red necks burning things to the ground because they believe the “deep state” did in their false prophet.

I suppose maybe a war — DPRK, I’m looking at you — might throw things up in the air. Then Biden would be a War President and he MIGHT be able to unite the country just long enough to defeat Trump.

If — God forbid — Something Happened and Biden was no longer the nominee, that would REALLY scramble things a great deal and things could go in directions no one — least of all me — could predict.

As an aside, I will note that it definitely seems as though Republicans may lose the House this year, which would que up Trump being impeached sooner rather than later if he went “full tyrant” on us. Throw in an actual effective General Strike and it’s at least possible THAT would be how we got rid of that malignant ding-dong.

But all of that is VERY speculative.

I have no idea what is going to happen. I just want to live in a peaceful, prosperous America that has a functioning democracy. That should not be too much to ask.

The Warped Nature of American Politics Is Enough to Make You Throw Up Your Hands In Dismay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.

They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.

The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.

That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?

The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.

A Civil War / Revolution Because of Ding-Dong Red King Trump Would S U C K

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue about any sort of civil war or revolution because of ding-dong Trump thrashing around history is how much it would suck, suck, suck. It would be not sexy or fun. It would be a horrible tragedy.

And the more I think about it, the more I realize that we could very well be on the cusp of nothing short of the most powerful nation in the world bombing itself into the stone age because of…vibes. Once you start things like revolution and civil war, it is very, very difficult to stop it.

So, it’s very possible that we could have a solid decade of death and destruction starting in late 2024. Now that really sounds hysterical, but there is an air of inevitability when it comes to Trump coming to power again that is very eerie. It’s like we’ve just decided that we all have to “go through some things” to get it all out of our system.

And remember none of this catastrophic tragedy would happen in a geopolitical vacuum. If the United States is imploding, that will mean that the greater world is exploding into WW3. At least a billion people could die specifically and directly because of ding-dong Trump because he will have caused the US to implode into civil war / revolution.

I know how hysterical that all sounds, but we have to start taking shit like that seriously. We have to sit up and take notice about where things are heading. And part of that is taking seriously how bad this new, war-torn America would be for the everyday person.

The chief thing is how any form of communication would probably be a premium. Command and control would be the first thing each side of any war in the United States would try to knock out and, as such, there’s a good chance that once the ball started rolling most of us would have no idea what the fuck was going on outside of our immediate neighborhood.

And if the absolute worst happens, we’ll all be so busy struggling to eat and avoid various explosions that we just won’t have time to worry about what our pronouns are any other form of identity politics — it’s hard to be “woke” when everything is very, very existential on a daily basis.

But only time will tell. It could be I’m overthinking all of this and we’ll either drift peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy or Trump will lose and he’ll just slink away into the political darkness.

We have about a year to find out.

What The Nattering Nabobs Of Negativism Aren’t Telling You About A Second Trump Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is becoming apparent to me that the usual suspects of the American intelligentsia are willfully hiding from the American public how fucking bad it will get if ding-dong Trump wins re-election.

The more I learn about Trump’s plans for his second term, the more alarmed I grow. The reason is — he wants to rule as a Red King over the Blue States. And somehow thinks that simply invoking the Insurrection Act will make all his dictatorial dreams come true.

And that is just not how these things work.

So, the smarty pants of The Atlantic are saying everything but the obvious — America is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution if Trump wins a second term for the simple fact that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

Trump will have no MAGA SA at his disposal. The USA has a long history as a strong, stable democracy — it’s not the Weimar Republic. The US is far bigger and far more decentralized than the Weimar Republic of 1933. And, in general, the tool that Trump thinks he can use to knock heads — the U.S. Military — is a foundation of the American democratic tradition.

So, if it is Trump, rather than, say, Ron DeSantis, who gets the opportunity to become America’s Republican autocrat — shit is going to hit the fucking fan pretty quick. And the fine folks at The Atlantic apparently want to dance around this fact, rather than shake the American population by the shoulders and tell them DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS IN 20204????

I guess the nattering nabobs of negativism simply don’t want to scare people because at the moment it’s all rather abstract. I mean, we don’t KNOW what will happen in a Trump second term, we can only speculate. It definitely *seems* as though Trump will try to subjugate Blue States as a Red King, they will fight back and the country has something akin to a Blue “Glorious Revolution,” which, in turn causes a Red Secession Crisis and…we’re going to the show.

Blues may turn into Blue Meanies before 2025 is over with.

The greatest country the world has ever seen will implode because of…vibes? Because Red Alpha Males are strangely so insecure in their masculinity that they hate gay people? What the what?

But, here we are. It could be that in about a year the final bolts will fly off the United States and some rather dramatic events may happen. Or….Trump loses and he somehow has a brain transplant and slinks into the political night without demanding a National Divorce so he stays out of prison?

I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I’m growing more and more alarmed!

The Political Rhetoric On The Right In The United States As We Enter The 2024 Election Cycle Is Beyond Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some of the political rhetoric spewing out of the MAGA Republican right these days is so insane that it’s hard not to see how all of this ends in civil war / revolution or some sort of Pol Pot American Killing Fields. I mean, it is a tenant of faith at the moment in most Republican circles that Democrats personally kill a baby at least once a day.

And it continues to get worse. Trump keeps cribbing off of Nazi ideas in his speeches in a way to telegraph exactly what he plans to do. Now, there is something interesting to think about.

If Trump is re-elected, I assume he’ll go after undocumented people by dramatically building out the existing ICE infrastructure. But it definitely seems as though once things get going that MAGA is coming for gay people in a big way. But it won’t stop there — because form follows function, the Jews will inevitable be put in the camps along with the undocumented, the gay, and the mentally ill.

But, of course, none of this is going to happen in a political vacuum. And never forget that Trump doesn’t have an American SA to knock heads. He doesn’t have a nation-wide paramilitary group of a few million men to swoop in after he’s re-elected and bash the heads in of Blues to “persuade” them to keep their head down while Trump establishes Trumplandia.

The United States is just too diverse and decentralized for anyone — much less ding-dong Trump — to establish a military dictatorship without the assistance of an SA-like paramilitary group. So, even if 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country starting in late 2024, there will still be PLENTY of Blues who refuse to kowtow to Tyrant Trump.

What that will mean in real terms for the future of the country, I just don’t know. But we can all point to the bonkers Right wing rhetoric that’s being pumped out at the moment, a year before, as a sign of things to come.

When You Reach A Fork In The Road, Take It: America’s Political Choice In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my personal opinions as to why each one of the potential endgames might happen.
Civil War (Right)
* Trump simply will not accept defeat.
* As such, faced with the possibility of going to prison, Trump might demand a National Divorce to keep his sorry ass out of it.
* They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so the moment Trump begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce, it’s possible that states — probably starting with Texas — will take him up on it.
* Because of corrosive issues like abortion and guns, it’s possible that the whole system will collapse given some added pressure.

Punt

* Something unexpected could happen like happened in 2020.
* It’s always possible that even if Trump demands a National Divorce after losing, Red States may choke and not initiate a Secession Crisis.
* There’s no evidence that we’re actually on the cusp of a civil war.
Revolution (Left)

* Trump is so stupid and so lazy that rather than do basic autocratic moves, he could go full tyrant — in Blue States at least — in such a way that pisses people off so much that they want to overthrow Trump.
* It’s possible that Trump could be so brazen and chaotic in his tyranny in Blue States that people who would otherwise be pretty chill with an *autocrat* will freak the fuck out if Trump is actual *dictator*.
* Any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump would be extremely risky and might only serve to make him more powerful in the end.

*It’s possible that because so many smug liberals have left the country after election day that there won’t be any leadership left to direct any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump