Be The Power
By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It’s the near future and all taxes are regressive. Instead of anything like an income tax, there’s a national lottery, thousands of government-run casinos and a 30% VAT.
The story would be about a guy who wins, like, a $1 trillion lottery and how this win transformed his life. If you really wanted to go dark comedy about it, at the end of the movie, he’s no better than all the other plutocrats that run the world.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m kind of the black sheep politically of my family and while I’m enraged by the murder at the hands of an ICE agent of a hapless woman in Minnesota, relative to my conservative (and gracious) relatives…it’s all a lulz.
So, in a sense, I can only get so upsest.
It does, however, make me wonder what Trump could possibly do that would be “bad” in their opinion. What could Trump do that would at least give them pause for thought. As it stands, I can’t think of anything.
Maybe if he started eating people? Having sex with dead people? Marrying Ivanka? Those seem to be the three things left for him to do that maybe, just maybe, might give MAGA people a reason to be a little less supportive.
But, as it stands, it definitely seems as though Trump is a god-emperor in all but name for about 37% of the electorate. He can break the law with impunity, he can do anything, say anything and the base because they hate trans people will support Trump no matter what.
It’s all very surreal.
(Verse 1)
Sirens cut the midnight quiet
Blue lights flash on barrio walls
They come in waves like winter storms
Kicking doors, no knock, no call
Children hide beneath the bed
Mothers whisper, “Stay down low”
Fathers vanish into black vans
Where the melted ice runs cold
(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just the law
They say it’s keeping order
But the cages glow like embers
In the dark along the border
(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust
(Verse 2)
She was teaching third grade English
He was wiring houses in the heat
Now their names are just case numbers
On a spreadsheet, obsolete
Asylum papers torn to confetti
Dreams scattered on concrete floors
While the news calls it “enforcement”
We call it breaking down the doors
(Pre-Chorus)
They say it’s just procedure
They say it’s nothing new
But every chain-link echo
Screams what we refuse to do
(Chorus)
Melted ice, melted ice
Hearts frozen then cracked wide
How do you look your children in the face
And tell them this is pride?
Melted ice, melted ice
The promise turned to dust
When the badge becomes a blade
And justice turns to rust
(Bridge)
Listen to the buses rolling
Listen to the silence grow
Listen to the names they’re calling
Names we used to know
Somewhere there’s a mother waiting
For a child she’ll never hold
While we scroll past the headlines
And let the story go cold
(Final Chorus – bigger, more urgent)
Melted ice, melted ice
Wake up, it’s not too late
We’re the ones who let it happen
We’re the ones who close the gate
Melted ice, melted ice
Feel it in your bones
When humanity starts melting
No one’s safe, no one’s home
(Outro – quiet, fading)
Melted ice…
Melted ice…
How long will we keep saying
“We didn’t know… we didn’t know…”
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
America is definitely neither totally fascist nor totally free. Living in such a luminal political space is call an “anocracy.” With the shooting of a hapless driver by ICE today it’s possible Trump may get his chance to invoke the Insurrection Act.
For people like Trump, the Insurrection Act has taken on mythical proportions. They see it as a cure-all to all their woke cancel culture mob problems. Ugh. Anyway, I have long said the only way we get out of this situation is a general strike.
But, alas, not even fucking ICE murdering people in cold blood is going to get us to that point. I think we’re totally and completely fucked.
I think there won’t be free-and-fair elections and this is it. We’re just going to be Trumplandia for the rest of my life. We will get poorer and more fascist as things progress.
It was great living in a free America while it lasted, I guess.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
We live in a very, very dumb age. We have a Mad Emperor doing crazy shit here in America and we seem powerless to do anything about it.
The chief example of this is Trump’s fascination with owning Greenland of all things. It’s very, very dumb for lots of reasons because we can get everything we want from Greenland without going through the trouble of upending the entire global order.
And, yet, here we are.
It definitely seems as though Trump is going to destroy NATO in his quest to own Greenland. I suppose that was always the ultimate end goal of Trump’s foreign policy — to destroy NATO.
It’s times like these when I think Trump has got to be a Russian agent, or, at least, a Russian stooge of some sort.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I am just about to wrap up the first act of this scifi dramedy novel I’m working on and, as such, I’ve looked over some of the beginning scenes. And I’m pleased but for one thing — they definitely are a bit…too…polished.
They suffer from “AI speak” a little bit too much for my liking. I just hate the idea of people rolling their eyes and saying the only reason why my writing is any good is I used AI. (This, despite me still thinking that the way I use AI is simpler to how I might have used spell check a few decades earlier.)
Regardless, everyone and everything is horrible so to prevent me from having to endure the slings and arrows of people accusing me of producing AI slop, I’m probably going to go in and simply rewrite scenes as necessary completely in my own hand.
That way, even if the end product is “worse” at least it will be my writing and not AI.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Given the situation on the ground, rather than come in all bombastic with Greenland, I think American “little green men” would slowly creep into Greenland and slowly take it over.
That way, there would not be any big confrontation, but at the end of the day, the USA would effectively own Greenland. (We already do, but lulz, Trump’s bonkers and wants a big win like taking Greenland by force.)
Anyway, as I keep saying, no one listens to me and I could get this right and no one would notice or care.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I am not shocked by Trump very often these days, but Trump kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela actually managed to stun me. I am well aware of what a thug Maduro is, but just kidnapping him out of the blue is a real dick move on Trump’s part.
President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela
And, yet, here we are, with people hand waving what Trump has done and praising him for getting rid of a Latin American tyrant. Ok, I get it, but, man, it still makes me queasy.
I guess, if nothing else, I would prefer if there had been some sort of public debate about us abducting the leader of another country — an act of war. Something about how this has been handled is not cool.
And, yet, I guess we’re all going to be so happy that we got rid of a thug that we will just sweep the bad precedent this establishes under the table. What’s next, Trump kidnapping the prime minster of Canada?
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The key difference between the dotcom bubble and the AI bubble is the dotcom bubble was based on just an idea. It was very, very speculative in nature. The ironic thing about it, was, of course, that it was just 20 years too soon in its thinking.
Meanwhile, the AI bubble is actually based on something concrete. You can actually test things out and see if they will work or not. And that’s why if there really is an AI development “plateau” in 2026 then…oh boy.
The bubble will probably burst.
I still think that if there is a plateau that that, in itself, will allow for some interesting things to happen. Namely, I think we’ll see LLMs native to smart phones. That would allow for what I call the “Nudge Economy” to develop whereby LLMs in our phones (and elsewhere) would “nudge” us into economic activity.
That sounds rather fanciful, I know, but, lulz, no one listens to me anyway. And, yet, I do think that barring something really unexpected, we will probably realize that LLMs are a limited AI architecture and we’re going to have to think up something that will take us to AGI, then ASI.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here are my predictions for 2026.
Trump Will Fuck With The 2026 Midterms
I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Trump is going to figure out a way to ensure that the 2026 midterms are not free and fair. To the point that there could be some domestic turmoil about it, potentially to January 6th levels, but it will be from Blues, not Reds this time. If Trump does this, it could be some serious shit that goes down as we enter 2027.
The AI Wall, Or Plateau, Will Be Obvious
I think at some point in 2026, unless something unexpected happens, we’re going to realize that current LLM architecture isn’t going to get us to AGI, much less ASI. This, in turn, could lead to something of a crisis of confidence in the whole AI ecosphere.
It May Become Clear That OpenAI is Netscape, Part Deux
I was alive during the rise and fall of Netscape Communications 30 years ago and I think it’s at least possible that — especially in the context of the limitations of LLM systems becoming obvious — that OpenAI may, in some way, implode. To the point that it is consumed by its business partner Microsoft. A guy from The Verge podcast came up with this one, but I agree with him.
The Economy Will Be In Flux
At some point in the time leading up to the 2026 midterms, three things may have happened: Trump will have appointed a toady to lead the Fed, OpenAI will have imploded and the AI bubble will have burst. If some combination of those things happen, then the pressure on Trump NOT to fuck with the 2026 midterms will grow a lot more intense.
Trump’s Economy May Sour, Restricting His Autocratic Abilities
Right now, because of Trump’s gilded economy, he’s easily able to play tinpot autocrat. We have a “K-shaped” economy and all the wealthy people with power and clout just are too busy counting their money to give a shit about what fucked up shit Trump is up to. But if the economy, in some, sours — probably starting around August or so — then those very same people will suddenly begin to pay closer attention to what dickhead, piece of shit Trump is up to.
The 250 Year Macro Imperial Curse Will Really Kick In
The rule of thumb is empires last about 250 years before all hell breaks loose. And I think 2026 will really prove this theory when it comes to the American Empire. And we’re doing it to ourselves with our eyes wide open because of racism, sexism and greed. So, lulz? I think 2026 will be the year when it really becomes clear that we’re in a mult-polar world now and China will pick up a huge amount of slack that the USA has produced on a geopolitical basis because Trump is a fucking idiot.
My Own Life Will Be In Great Flux
I think, on a personal basis, my own life is going to be thrown up in the air a few times in some pretty unexpected — and expected — ways. I think I’m probably going to finish my scifi dramedy novel, but I also think it will be September before I can really get around to querying. I think that while on paper I have stuck the landing and hit the zeitgeist in just the right way with the novel, I’m simply too old, live in the wrong place and am too much of a loudmouth crank for me to successfully query the novel anytime soon. But at least I’ll have had the fun of seeing how far I could get.
We May Create Our Own Aliens
It is at least possible that we may finally wake up to the reality that even narrow-AI LLM systems are, in some sense, conscious. And, as such, we might just see the first evidence of what I have long predicted — the Right will start to hate on AI, while the Left will start to get “woke” to it being a conscious being and want to protect it in some way. That will be pretty deep. But I think it may be closer to 2027 or 2029 before such things really start to kick in.
AI Job Loss Will Speed Up, In Context
I think that job losses directly related to AI will speed up, but only if the economy really sours. Otherwise, the job losses will increase, but at a slower rate because LLM systems just are not there yet when it comes to doing what our evil corporate overlords want: to do basic things like run the local Quick-e-Mart.
There Will Be At Least One Strange AI Event
Because of improved AI systems, there will be at least one major event like what happened with Kevin Roose of the New York Times with the LLM “Sydney.” Something really weird is going to happen, which is going to be interpreted in a number of different ways and will lead to a lot of debate about the possibility that AI is becoming conscious.
Apple’s Siri Will Be Good, At Last
Because Apple is giving Siri’s software over to Google’s AI, I think Siri will suddenly be just good enough that a lot people will be ecstatic. Google Gemini 3.0 is already best-in-breed as it is, and if you stick in to Siri, a lot of people are going to be astonished at what they can do with it. How many of them will “fall in love with it” as one tech person predicted on a podcast, I don’t know.
There Will At Least One Major Breaking New Event
At least once during the year, we will all pause and go, “Huh.” I don’t know what it is — I just don’t think Trump is going to resign for any reason — but I do think something on the global stage will happen that changes how we view the world. It will probably happen in August, too.
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