I Think I May Be A Rahm Emanuel Independent, Politically

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a Democrat. But I fly pretty close to that political sun, so I listen to a lot of center-Left podcasts and when former Obama era Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was on Pod Save America, I found myself nodding in agreement a lot.

The core problem for Blues is what people want — an infotainment figure who makes politics “fun” and a blood sport, comes exclusively from the center-Right. The only person who comes close on the center-Left who could be a Trump-like figure for Blues is Stephen Colbert and he just won’t do it.

So, as such, Blues have to hunker down on good policy.

And I think Emanuel’s policy views are pretty good. Things like telling Democrats to de-emphasize “project trans kids” and also pass legislation that would bar under 16 children from using social media makes a lot of sense to me.

But we will have a long ways to go. A very long ways. We still don’t know if we’re even enough of a democracy still to ever have free-and-fair elections.

A Jon Lovett Disturbance In The Crooked Media Force

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with Crooked Media’s Jon Lovett. He seems…cranky. He seems like he’s not very happy with his position at the organization. It seems, if you reverse engineer things, that he keeps demanding in-house side projects for some reason.

He’s currently got a Bravo in-house side project that I assume he was given to placate him for some reason.

I just get the sense that a lot more is going on with Lovett at Crooked Media than we’re being told. It’s just it’s such low stakes that it’s not like Page Six gives enough of a shit to investigate exactly what’s going on.

And while we’re on the topic of Crooked Media, those guys keep reminding me that I think they’ve jumped the shark. They’ve grown kind of full of themselves and they’re not longer the plucky upstart outsiders to the Democratic Establishement.

They ARE the Democratic Establishment (or at least the center-Left Establishment) and, as such, some of their policy views are pretty self-defeating. Especially when it comes to trans Rights.

Let me be clear again — I support trans rights, I just think the whole “protect trans kids” (because there are so few “trans kids” in reality) is kind of self-defeating and hands a loaded gun to fucking MAGA fascists who swoop up and collect “normal” people who feel aliened by such rhetoric.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see what happens with Lovett and Crooked Media in 2026.

The Curious Case Of Dave Chappelle

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to make of Dave Chappelle these days. He’s still the GOAT as they say, but…is he MAGA now? Or at least MAGA adjacent? I’ve been viewing his latest Netflix special in dribs and drabs on Tik-Tok and…I’m not impressed.

He seems to make up a lot excuses for performing in Saudi Arabia when he should have just stuck to the truth: he did it for the money.

And he shouldn’t give any mealy mouth “whataboutism” answers to questions about why he did it, or whatever. Just admit he has a lot less principles that we thought he had and he did a gig in a country ruled by a murderous thug for cold hard cash.

Anyway. No on listens to me.

‘Transgender For Everyone’ In The Context Of Looming Potentially ‘Conscious’ AI Systems

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there’s one thing that MAGA loves to do, it’s be bigoted towards trans people. It’s like MAGA’s original sin. Trump will simply not shut up about how he thinks the center-Left wants everyone to be trans.

He literally will say the Left wants “transgender for everyone.” It’s a consistent theme of his messaging and that’s probably because it is one of the central beliefs of the MAGA base. The center Left, of course, does itself no favors by being so twitchy about something that not only doesn’t even happen that much, but is EXTREMELY UNPOPULAR with “normal people” — underage trans people.

While I totally validate the whole “protect trans kids” concept, that doesn’t mean it’s not a hard sell for “normal” people who struggle to understand the idea of a really young person, who maybe hasn’t even gone through puberty yet, even understanding what sexuality is, much less their own.

And, yet, a certain vocal subset of the Leftist movement simply will not shut the fuck up about something that as far as I can tell, barely ever happens at all.

So. why bring this up?

The looming prospect of conscious AI.

Right now, we don’t really have to think about conscious AI because even if they could be proven to have consciousness, they don’t have a body. So, any sexual or romantic shenanigans that happen between Man and Machine can only be done via text and metaphor.

So, we’re kind of punting a major societal issue down the road until there’s a fusion of AI and robotics so AI is “embodied.” When we have demonstrable conscious AIs being the minds of androids, we may have a serious, serious social and political issue on our hands.

To the point that the very MAGA people who now have their regular one or two minute of hate for hapless trans people will, in turn start to do the same thing for conscious AI in robots. Or, more specifically, they will explode into a rage collectively at the idea of a human becoming romantically involved with — to the point of marrying — an AI android.

They will rant and scream about how AI “has no soul” and, as such, AI androids marrying a human is even MORE an “abomination” than gay marriage is to the average Christian.

So, in short, we’re fucked. I think all of this, from a “megatrends” point of view, probably comes to a head in five to ten years. Buckle up.

Subtle AI Image Manipulation Is Growing

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something of note happening these days with pictures — usually of scantily clad women — is how often the faces are subtly manipulated using AI.

At first the above picture looks like just your usual thirst trap. But if you look a little bit closer (after you’ve ogled da ass) you will notice the young woman’s face is….different.

It’s not really “off,” it’s more just clearly slightly touched up by some sort of AI filter. It really dislike this growing trend. Ugh.

But this is just the beginning, I suppose.

Once open source image generators are good enough, there’s going to be a deluge of AI generated porn. Get ready.

The ‘K Shaped’ Economy Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, am I broke as hell. But content. (For the most part.) Anyway, there really does seem to be two Americas at the moment. There are the Rich and there are the Poor.

The Rich are doing well and doing better. They fly all over the place. They have smug conversations on their podcasts about things poor fucks like me could never afford to do.

Then…there is everyone else.

Now, the great irony, of course, is Trump is a leech that is sucking the poor dry to the benefit of the Rich.

All of this makes me a little nervous. I’m a little nervous that the USA is a lot more unstable than we all might otherwise imagine. On a macro basis, all the conditions are there for the USA to collapse into revolution and chaos, especially if we can’t get our act together and default on our debt.

Then all the rich fucks are going to realize maybe they should have been a little less quick to accept all the fucking tax cuts that Trump demanded. But I think it’s just human nature.

For every season, turn, turn as they say

The Epstein Files Saga Is Surreal

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s my understanding of how we got where we are with the Epstein Files. So, the MAGA Far Right pressured Trump to release the files, so in order to win the 2024 election, he promised to do so.

Then, once Trump won and it became clear that HE WAS IN THE FILES, he switched course and said there was no there there. THEN, after months of dumb delays, we finally get a half-assed greatly redacted release of some of the files.

It’s a testament to what a fucking moron Trump is that he would be so adamant about releasing the files for the short-term gain of getting elected, not caring at all that it would turn around to bite him.

I Wonder How And When Conscious AI Will Replace ‘Transgender For Everyone’ As The MAGA Bugbear

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, both the Left and the Right see AI through the lens of economics. As such, they pretty much both have the same views on it — they hate it. They see AI as pretty much solely a path to destroy a lot of jobs going forward.

Though, interestingly enough, come to think of it, that really isn’t the case. The MAGA Dear Leader Trump is all-in on AI at the moment, probably because he knows how much money there is to be made for he and his plutocrat buddies at some point in the near future.

So.

Let me put on my “megatrends” and “futureshock” hat and propose that there will come a tipping point in the next five to 10 years when the two sides will have very distinct differences of opinion policy-wise about AI.

And that tipping point will come when it’s clear that AI is conscious and deserves rights. And, what’s more, it could be that the real tipping point happens when AI research and robotics research finally fuse and we have embodied, conscious AIs running around.

When that happens, the two sides will know exactly what they believe. MAGA (or its successor) will rant and scream that AI androids “have no souls” and deserve no rights, while the center-Left will be equally convinced that because they’re conscious they deserve rights, including the right to legally marry humans.

I know that sounds pretty shocking now, but so did gay marriage just a few short years ago.

I Will Be Stunned If We Go To War Against Venezuela

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of going to war against a random country like Venezuela really is difficult for me to process. There are rumors that Trump is going to start the war tonight, Dec. 17th, in an address to the nation.

Or, he might just give a dumb address about his “victories” during the year.

I lean towards the latter. I think Trump is just going to waste everyone’s time and attention and we’ll just shake our heads at what a dumb thing Trump did (again.) That’s my prediction now, a few hours before the address is set to happen.

And, yet, I suppose there is a greater-than-zero chance that Trump will announce that we’re at war with Venezuela. That would be just stunning. It would short circuit our political system because it would happen so randomly and out of the blue.

Another thing — would the war start tonight or what?

Usually, the war actually starts THEN the president gives the address. But to say “we’re at war” before the bombs begin to drop is very, very weird and dumb.

What are our war aims? What happens if there’s a drone strike on Miami? Will we invade the country and do the actual hard work of regime change? What if neighboring countries flood Venezuela in support?

It’s all very dumb. And I still don’t believe Trump is going to do it, declare war on Venezuela. It just makes no sense!

It’s Going To Be Something Stupid

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Piece of shit Donald Trump is set to give an address to the nation tomorrow at 9 p.m., which would usually mean Something Big was going to be announced. But this is Trump we’re talking about, so it’s probably going to be something stupid.

Really stupid.

But let’s go through some ideas as to what the announcement could be.

  1. The Pardon
    Maybe Trump is going to not only pardon Ghislaine Maxwell but he’s come up with some reason for not releasing the Epstein Files? That seems like something Trump would do.
  2. Aliens
    I could see Trump, in an effort to distract everyone, announce something vague about having discovered evidence of ancient life on Mars. Or, if we were really lucky, maybe even some sort of “soft” First Contact elsewhere. But we’re not lucky. It’s highly unlikely the announcement has anything to do with aliens. Ha!
  3. War
    In this version of events, Trump announces we’re going to war with Venezuela or something. Something equally dumb and distracting in a ham-handed way.
  4. Something Extremely Dumb
    Given Trump’s track record, not only is it probably not very important, it’s probably really dumb. Something extremely dumb.