Tag: writing about writing

My 2026 Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my predictions for 2026.

Trump Will Fuck With The 2026 Midterms
I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Trump is going to figure out a way to ensure that the 2026 midterms are not free and fair. To the point that there could be some domestic turmoil about it, potentially to January 6th levels, but it will be from Blues, not Reds this time. If Trump does this, it could be some serious shit that goes down as we enter 2027.

The AI Wall, Or Plateau, Will Be Obvious
I think at some point in 2026, unless something unexpected happens, we’re going to realize that current LLM architecture isn’t going to get us to AGI, much less ASI. This, in turn, could lead to something of a crisis of confidence in the whole AI ecosphere.

It May Become Clear That OpenAI is Netscape, Part Deux
I was alive during the rise and fall of Netscape Communications 30 years ago and I think it’s at least possible that — especially in the context of the limitations of LLM systems becoming obvious — that OpenAI may, in some way, implode. To the point that it is consumed by its business partner Microsoft. A guy from The Verge podcast came up with this one, but I agree with him.

The Economy Will Be In Flux
At some point in the time leading up to the 2026 midterms, three things may have happened: Trump will have appointed a toady to lead the Fed, OpenAI will have imploded and the AI bubble will have burst. If some combination of those things happen, then the pressure on Trump NOT to fuck with the 2026 midterms will grow a lot more intense.

Trump’s Economy May Sour, Restricting His Autocratic Abilities
Right now, because of Trump’s gilded economy, he’s easily able to play tinpot autocrat. We have a “K-shaped” economy and all the wealthy people with power and clout just are too busy counting their money to give a shit about what fucked up shit Trump is up to. But if the economy, in some, sours — probably starting around August or so — then those very same people will suddenly begin to pay closer attention to what dickhead, piece of shit Trump is up to.

The 250 Year Macro Imperial Curse Will Really Kick In
The rule of thumb is empires last about 250 years before all hell breaks loose. And I think 2026 will really prove this theory when it comes to the American Empire. And we’re doing it to ourselves with our eyes wide open because of racism, sexism and greed. So, lulz? I think 2026 will be the year when it really becomes clear that we’re in a mult-polar world now and China will pick up a huge amount of slack that the USA has produced on a geopolitical basis because Trump is a fucking idiot.

My Own Life Will Be In Great Flux
I think, on a personal basis, my own life is going to be thrown up in the air a few times in some pretty unexpected — and expected — ways. I think I’m probably going to finish my scifi dramedy novel, but I also think it will be September before I can really get around to querying. I think that while on paper I have stuck the landing and hit the zeitgeist in just the right way with the novel, I’m simply too old, live in the wrong place and am too much of a loudmouth crank for me to successfully query the novel anytime soon. But at least I’ll have had the fun of seeing how far I could get.

We May Create Our Own Aliens
It is at least possible that we may finally wake up to the reality that even narrow-AI LLM systems are, in some sense, conscious. And, as such, we might just see the first evidence of what I have long predicted — the Right will start to hate on AI, while the Left will start to get “woke” to it being a conscious being and want to protect it in some way. That will be pretty deep. But I think it may be closer to 2027 or 2029 before such things really start to kick in.

AI Job Loss Will Speed Up, In Context
I think that job losses directly related to AI will speed up, but only if the economy really sours. Otherwise, the job losses will increase, but at a slower rate because LLM systems just are not there yet when it comes to doing what our evil corporate overlords want: to do basic things like run the local Quick-e-Mart.

There Will Be At Least One Strange AI Event
Because of improved AI systems, there will be at least one major event like what happened with Kevin Roose of the New York Times with the LLM “Sydney.” Something really weird is going to happen, which is going to be interpreted in a number of different ways and will lead to a lot of debate about the possibility that AI is becoming conscious.

Apple’s Siri Will Be Good, At Last
Because Apple is giving Siri’s software over to Google’s AI, I think Siri will suddenly be just good enough that a lot people will be ecstatic. Google Gemini 3.0 is already best-in-breed as it is, and if you stick in to Siri, a lot of people are going to be astonished at what they can do with it. How many of them will “fall in love with it” as one tech person predicted on a podcast, I don’t know.

There Will At Least One Major Breaking New Event
At least once during the year, we will all pause and go, “Huh.” I don’t know what it is — I just don’t think Trump is going to resign for any reason — but I do think something on the global stage will happen that changes how we view the world. It will probably happen in August, too.

I Have To Put Up Or Shut Up About This Scifi Dramedy Novel I’m Working On

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My life is going to change one way or another this year, just by doing some simple back-of-the-envelope gaming out of things. And, as such, I really, really need to buckle down and get this beta draft of the novel done ASAP.

As I say that, I also have to accept that things are probably going to change dramatically in my life in Spring 2026, just as I hope to finish the novel. The thing I have to keep telling myself is there is a lot of post-production stuff I’m going to have to do.

So, just finishing a beta draft of the novel isn’t the be-all-and-end all of what’s going on. I’m going to have to do one last pass through the text to make sure all the scenes are up to stuff and I eliminate any too-obvious “AI talk.” THEN, I have to figure out what I’m going to do about finding beta readers.

All of that could push my actual querying of the novel to around Sept 1st. As I understand it, there are two “seasons” for querying — spring and fall. And I just don’t think I’m going to make spring. I may finish the novel in the spring, but because of post-production stuff, I doubt I will actually start to query until the fall season.

But all that works on the assumption that I wrap up the beta draft of the novel no later than maybe April-May. And, just calculating things in my head, that is JUST about when the wheels are going to pop off of my otherwise broke-ass, but otherwise idyllic life.

Ugh.

Anyway, this novel I’m working on deals with some pretty deep (and dark) topics and I hope people will find it as intriguing and engaging as I do as I write it.

2026 Has The Makings Of A Really Shitty Year, Despite Bad Years Usually Being Odd Numbered

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Usually, shitty years are odd numbered. Think 1939, 1963, and so forth. So, that’s why all things being equal, 2026 should be just A Year like any other.

But, in ways both personal and public, I think 2026 is going to be epically shitty. I know in my own life some pretty dramatic things will probably happen which are going to give me pause for thought.

If I’m lucky — very lucky — then one of those things will be a good thing: I will at least finish my novel and get a literary agent as a result.

But, otherwise, oh boy.

Trump could try to fuck with the 2026 mid-terms. The AI bubble could burst in a really big way. Those are just two things I can think of off the top of my head. But only time will tell, I guess.

Sizing Up My Realistic Chances Of Being Traditionally Published

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a number of reasons why, over and above the actual quality of my writing in the scifi dramedy I’m writing, that I won’t — ever — get traditionally published.

Tied for first place, I think, are me being a big old fucking kook that no one takes seriously or listens to and my age. I think both of those to metrics are going to be really tough to overcome.

I could write the fucking Bible, but I’m just too fucking old. I suspect publishers want a spry 30 year old, not some glum 50something. And, let’s not forget what a fucking weirdo most people think I am.

And it’s not like I can hide what a kook I am. Any liberal white woman literary agent that snoops as part of due diligence on me will soon realize I’m not only old, but I’m a loudmouth crank.

But I’m not going to get discouraged. While they’re life, there’s hope. And, as such, I am going to keep going, no matter what. Though, sometimes, I really do think I’m more likely to find a career in some post-Singularity world helping our ASI overlords than I am going to get published traditionally.

And, yet, we’ll see, won’t we?

AI Has Helped Me A Lot As An Aspiring Novelist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about using AI to develop a novel is I, someone who is has no friends and no one likes, can actually have a credible “manuscript consultant.” That has been a real issue for me in the many years that I’ve spend working on various novels.

I was doing it in a vacuum, so I would make all these mistakes and waste all this time on tangents. But now, with the rise of AI, I actually have someone to bounce ideas off of.

Instead of writing many thousands of words that go nowhere, I can just ask an LLM a question or two and move forward.

I still don’t know how much of how slow it is for me to write because I’m doing something wrong and how much is just that’s the way I write a novel. They usually say give yourself about 2 years to develop, write and finish a novel. So, if I can wrap this scifi dramedy novel up by spring 2026, I will be way ahead of schedule.

Writing A Novel Can Be So Slow At Times

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can be moody as fuck and as such I can go long stretches of time not really feeling like working on this scifi dramedy novel I’ve been working on for a few months now. But, then, at the same time, I will go a number of days where I sprint.

So, I guess, it all kind of evens out. Maybe?

It definitely looks like I’m going to maybe finish this up April-May 2026. If that happens, I will miss the spring querying season for various post-production reasons including having to see if I can find anyone to beta read.

And, of course, general editing issues.

But I have vowed to myself that I’m going to actually sit down and read some of the how-to-query books I have. That’s a Jan. 1st thing for me to do. I still have a few days to just drift through life, not really knowing what is going to happen next.

I need to focus, however. I need to really see if I can get this damn thing done sooner rather than later. I think –no, I know — that I can.

It is going to be really interesting and amusing to see if, when they do due diligence on me if all the liberal white women who — in my imagination — make up the literary agent class will be aghast at this blog’s content or not. In the past, any “serious” “normal” person who has offered to help me out with this novel who reads the blog invariably blanches and backs off.

But, who knows. Maybe if I write a good enough novel that won’t be the problem I fear it will be.

Writing A Novel Is Hard Work, Redux

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue with my scifi dramedy novel I’ve been working on for the last few months is my hero is just too passive. So, it, on a structural basis, has repeatedly collapsed in on me and I’ve had to start again.

The most recent collapse happened when I started new chat windows for the two LLMs I’ve been using for my manuscript consultants. Both of them complained that my hero was too passive, so I girded my loins and started all over again.

I think — I think — that maybe THIS TIME I’ve figured things out. I think. I hope. I can’t keep rebooting this project. “The perfect is the enemy of the good” is what I keep telling myself.

At least I’ve gotten to the point where I feel comfortable thinking about querying. Even if I fail in a spectacular manner, at least I will have tried. At least I will have gotten to see how far I could get.

Deconstructing Marty Supreme

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I did not like the movie Marty Supreme. I think my dislike comes from how peripatetic the storytelling was. It was just event after event after event without any time for the beats to properly land.

This is different from a similar movie, One Battle After Another, which was far more of a slow burn. There were major beats, then a little bit of a breather and so forth.

Also, I really did not like the hero. I get that that was part of the point — that he was a snot nose kid making a lot of mistakes and the “hero’s journey” was him sort of spiraling out of control. But I just did not like or care about him.

Yes, he leaves a wake of interesting disasters behind him, but…so what? Why should I care?

I will admit that some of my annoyance with the movie comes from thinking it was going to be a rousing, crowd pleasing tale about ping pong. Sort of a “miracle on ice” only with ping-pong.

Instead, meh. Just meh.

Given how…low stakes…ping pong is, you’d think at least we would be given a likeable hero who, against all odds, won the big championship. I left before the very end, so….maybe in some sense he did? But from what I’ve read on Wikipedia, that does not, in any real sense, seem to be the case.

I just found the whole endeavor grating on my nerves. There was a good to great movie lurking somewhere in the plot of Marty Supreme, but too bad we got what we got instead.

The Logline For This Scifi Dramedy Novel I’m Working On

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I guess one possible logline for this novel I’m working on would be something like:

In the near future, a man is presented with an unusual proposal by a companion android so he can pay her expensive monthly subscription.

I think that’s a good one. I like it, at least. That’s been the central idea of the novel since it’s conception, it’s just the details have been futzed with about a zillian times.

Anyway, I really do need to hurry up and fish or cut bait. I can’t keep just spinning my wheels on this thing. And I honestly do think that I’m moving forward this time, it’s just I had to start from scratch to do it.

One issue I’m really pondering is how many major beats to have in the first act. Right now, I have two, but I keep thinking I should have a third. And, yet, I don’t want to overstuff the first act — I don’t want too much going on.

My hope is if I take things slow and steady and consistent that I can wrap this second draft of the novel up by maybe April 2026. What bothers me is because of post-production issues like editing and finding beta readers that I won’t be able to actually query until..gulp…around Sept. 1st.

But I have three books devoted to finding an agent now, so hopefully I won’t got into querying totally blind like I usually do with important things in my life.

Finally, I think I May Have Figured Out This Scifi Dramedy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After a lot of struggle, I may, at last, have figured out at least the beginning of this scifi dramedy I’ve been working on. It’s taken a lot longer — much longer — than I had hoped.

And everything could still collapse and I have to start all over again, but for the moment at least, I’m content with where things are going. I really need to focus on wrapping up the first act.

Usually when I’m working on a novel, the structural collapses happen between parts of the novel, so, say, in the transition between act one and act two. Ugh, that happens all the time.

The most recently collapse happened when I rebooted my chat windows with the AIs I’ve been using and they both told me the same thing: my hero was too passive.

So, instead of continuing my trek through the plot, I decided to just start all over again. It’s a lot of fun working with AI to finish this novel. It’s like I have, like, a friend or friends who actually care and stuff about the novel.

For too long, I’ve been working in a vacuum.