‘The Whisper’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s time America had “the talk.”

Not about where babies come from, but something just as existential — our national covenant.

I only even suggest this because there may come a time — very soon — when that particular issue is not nearly as abstract — or completely bonkers — as it seems right now.

We to start to at least think about re-imagining, rededicating, and renewing the social contract. How — or why — such a momentous decision might be foisted upon us remains a mystery.

But better to at least ruminate on what the goals of a Renewed American Covenant might be instead of being surprised when the question is poised.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Strategy’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These are times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would say.

The dead hand of history is well on its way to “sweeping aside the last vestiges of the Republic” as they might say in Star Wars. It’s all because risking things that are important to you in the real world — especially if you’re a member of the existing establishment — isn’t exactly something you feel obliged to do.

As such, definitely seems to me that it’s a foregone conclusion that the United States will be an autocratic managed democracy by the time Trump is sworn in for a second (stolen) term.

I say this because of Trump’s “Spaghetti strategy” for winning re-election — he’s simply going to throw everything he’s got at the wall and see what sticks. So if it’s not fucking with the postal service, it’s fucking with the actual selection of Electors. If it’s not that, then it’s the bullshit Durham Investigation. And, after about a half dozen other things, he’s assuming that the Russians will — as part of a quid pro quo for removing 1/3 of our troops from German — hack directly into our election systems.

So, in a sense, I’ve reached acceptance — there may be moments in the next few months when we think somehow we’re going to escape living in an autocratic state, but in the end, mysteriously, Trump will still be in office.

Autocrats, as they say, never lose.

As I’ve said many times — really, the only person who can change both our fate and that of Trump is, well, Trump. He has the entire edifice of the Republican Party at his disposal. So unless Trump self-owns in a pretty massive way, we’re going to collectively buckle and fall to our knees before Mad King Trump.

Something pretty spectacular would have to change for this not to happen. Something I can’t predict. And I just don’t see it happening.

I keep vacillating wildly between having hope that we might all get woke in time to fix this problem and acceptance that in the end not even Trump’s tendency to self-own would fix the problem.

I don’t know. Surprise me folks.

Second American Revolution: A Possible Historic Trump Self-Own


“…Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness”
The Declaration of Independence


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For about five years now, the laws of politics have been suspended. Trump has experienced little or no accountability for his autocratic inclinations. And, in a sense, what we face now was always going to happen — the only thing standing in the way of his dream of being an American Putin is the 2020 Election.

Bill Barr and Donald Trump.

That’s it.

Once he gets past that obstacle, he will finally achieve wealth and power beyond his wildest imagination.

And, really, if we see Trump as sort of an inverse of Gorbachev, then even if there was some sort of “counter-coup” on the part of Nancy Pelosi, Trump still wins. Or, put another way, the dead hand of history is now so powerful that some truly astonishing would have to happen for America’s slip into autocracy being rather prosaic.

So, in a sense, I think we need to start thinking about either leaving the country (if you can) or begin making arrangements for how to placate Big Brother win the time comes. I honestly think that’s our fate. We just don’t have it in us to do what is necessary to push back against the rush towards autocracy we find ourselves in on a macro level.

But, for no other reason than to make myself feel better, let’s imagine a scenario where Trump’s natural inclination to self-own gets in the way of his final consolidation of power. The only way I could possibly see this happening is if Trump and Barr’s attempt to secure the presidency through owning the media narrative somehow falls apart.

Something no one — especially me — can’t predict happens that suddenly changes the state of play on the ground.

A key issue is while Barr is The Brain to Trump’s Pinky, Trump is still fucking screw up. If things got tricky in an American obviously near revolution, I just don’t see Trump handling that situation very well. The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman can sell her soul for access all she wants — Trump is not a political genius.


Donald J. Trump, 45 President of the United States.
He is nothing more than a deranged version of Chauncey Gardner from Being There. That’s all he ever has been — he’s just a vessel, an avatar for some pretty fucked up existential problems in the American political system.

Before I go any further, let’s be clear — in my mind, all my running scenarios about how we might manage to have some sort of “Renewed American Covenant” is nothing more than me having way too much mental energy and maybe nerves about living in an autocracy. Trump was never going to get convicted in the Senate and as of right now, it seems that Trump is never leaving office for any reason, even if it means burning it to the ground. So, this is a serious flight of fancy. It’s meaningless. But it is fun, I guess, to daydream.

So, for Trump to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, he would have to ring the Liberty Bell, if you will, in the hearts of the average American. He would have to do something — or be personally blamed for something — that went against the American sense of what it means to be, well, American.

That I have to essentially bet that something I can’t predict is how the nation I love is saved is not really all that great a situation. And, even then, I’m working on the assumption that that would just be the BEGINING of something that might lead to some sort of national renewal. And to get that Renewed American Covenant we would have to go through an unprecedented tragedy that I really, really don’t want it to happen.

This is just me trying to console myself by turning the abstract fear of what might happen into a more manageable concrete scenario I can roll around in my mind.

Or, put another way, I love to run scenarios and this just happens to be one that I can use to figure out how to get America back on track (if only after a significant shake up.)

But I guess it is possible that at some point between Election Night and Trump’s final consolidation of power in January, he screws up. Whatever he does is so bad that a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people abandon him. So much so that there is something of an Apocalyptic Rock Fight between MAGA-Qanon and everyone else.

So that would be the setup for a Second American Revolution. Trump, through Barr, gets a thin veneer of legality to his second term and yet somehow he screws the plan up and there’s some sort of “revolt” (probably starting somewhere like New York City).

He tries to put it down using the Insurrection Act, Something Bad happens as a result and finally, finally, FINALLY a few conservative-but-not-MAGA people begin to at least tacitly accept some sort of organize resistance-in-real-life-where-you-might-get-hurt-or-lose-your-well-paying-job happens.

This is all very serious, folks. This is not a video game. This is not an angry Twitter thread.

This would be real life.

A Second American Revolution?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, if you want to get all apocalyptic about it, it’s not a Second American Civil War we should be worried about it’s a Second American Revolution.

Would the Second American Revolution be more like the First French Revolution?

The reason why I say this is we’re looking at the existential threat facing the United States all wrong. While, yes, there are two sides to the conflict brewing within the United States, the case could be made that once we break the seal on this matter, no institution will be spared.

So, in that sense, it would be a lot more like a revolution than a civil war. The American Civil War actually strengthened a number of existing institutions in the United States after it was all done with. If, say, Trump attempts to take “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest he do, then any domestic insurrection would likely leave no existing institution untouched.

In fact, the United States may be completely re-magined if such a rebellion against Mad King Trump’s Trumplandia succeeded. A lot of bent up political reforms would explode out into the open rather radically in a very short amount of time and, as such, when all was said and done, future historians would definitely mark the looming conflict a “revolution” and not a “civil war.”

One reason why we think we would have a “civil war” instead of a “revolution” is we are, in our minds, fighting the last major domestic war — the American Civil War. But there was a American Revolution before that

.

Before we all get too hysterical about any of this, there are some caveats. We could still simply slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open and in a rather peaceful manner. Instead of any great historical drama, it would be a rather prosaic slip into a very American autocracy in the sense that Trump keeps doing what he’s already doing for a few years before the final boom drops. That would give people time to slowly grow accustomed to the change in the American experience and so it all turns into a lulz.

Only when, say, Q in a few years orders his followers to empty the cities and we have American Killing fields will anyone get too upset.

But, we are talking about a huge fucking moron named Donald Trump. He’s a massive self-own artist and, as such, out of sheer criminal incompetence he stirs up the volk in a way no one expects. Some pretty surreal political events might happen in quick success and before we know it, some sort of New Model Army has been established and not even the U.S. Military survives the implosion of the country.

As such, it’s at least possible that Trump without even really thinking about it pushes the country not into civil war, but revolution. Things grow far more radical for both sides and it’s not about states wanting to leave the Union or not, it’s about are we Trumplandia or are we America? Are we an American Union and, as such, take such a massive crisis as an opportunity to renew or covenant, or are we nothing more than a reflection of Trump’s ego? The stakes , as such, grow far more serious on a number of levels.

I will point out that usually it’s a war that leads to major technological innovations, so it’s possible to imagine a scenario where a lot of technology that’s kind of there-but-not-being-used like AI, MX, robotics and automatic comes roaring to the forefront of society because they’re used for military reasons in a desperate pitched battle for control over the geographic area currently known as the United States of America.

All of this is extremely fantastical. I struggle to even comprehend how an otherwise stable nation like the United States could find itself in a position where civil war — or revolution — is actually a near future possibility. It just makes no sense.

But here we are.

My Current 2020 Election Scenarios Ranked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing you have to keep in mind is the United States is already an autocratic managed democracy like Russia, with only our self-perception standing it in the way of us realizing it. As such, liberal democracy is dead in here. In all honesty, the dead hand of history has made its decision — America, sooner or later, is going to be a nation where you can get snatched off the street for your political views.

So, if Biden somehow miraculously actually gets sworn in, what we all think is a Restoration is little more than a House Trump Interregnum. We might have about two years before MAGA comes roaring back by taking over the House. They will impeach Biden, then leverage that political gut punch to take back the White House in 2024. Unless something simply astonishing happens — that is our absolute future if Biden wins in 2020.

It may not be Trump who finally strangles the life out of Lady Liberty but human ostrich Tom Cotton. But let’s go down the list of election 2020 scenarios ranked from most to least likely.

The Durham Factor
In this scenario, Barr’s “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation works like a charm. Biden’s lead is reduced down to nothing. Trump wins without even having to fuck with anything. A lot of people are upset, but by the time the actual conclusions of the investigation come out — totally clearing Biden — it’s too late. Our liberal democracy has slipped through our fingers because we lost the media narrative.

A Mysterious Replay of 2016
Close behind the first scenario is the exact same thing as 2016 happens — Trump loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College. A lot of people will be angry, but the media narrative will be that Biden should accept defeat “for the good of nation.” Trump quickly consolidates power and that’s that. Only after about 40 years will we learn that the Russians hacked directly into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany. Lulz!

A Trump Election Night “Victory”
This is all about the media narrative. Without really doing all that much — other than using Barr to pull legal justifications out of his butt — Trump wins for no other reason than the opposition is too weak and divided. This scenario is based on the available conditions and assumes the dead hand of history’s decision as to our fate is final.

Coup….and Counter Coup
This scenario is really wild and, in real terms, extremely unlikely because I just don’t see the opposition to Trump being able to use any mass anger against Trump effectively. But the idea that Nancy Pelosi might FINALLY fight dirty makes it a little easier to sleep at night.

The Coup
The key thing you have to remember is Interior Minister Bill Bar is going to fuck with the election in a very “Who, me?” kind of way. He did it with the Mueller Investigation and he’s going to do it with the election. In fact, I would go so far as to say his success in blunting the blow of Mueller Investigation has given him a very good understanding of what to do.

As long as House Trump controls the post-election narrative, they win. As things grow more and more unhinged, the pressure will be on Biden to accept “defeat” for the “sake of the country.” So, it’s easy to see a situation whereby somehow even though a coup takes place, The New York Times and others play right into Barr’s hands by not even recognizing that a coup has taken place.

And, really, Barr has every reason to believe he will win. So, it’s very possible that even if MAGA state legislatures simply seat Trump Electors out of spite, a wide swath of the mainstream press will go full Vichy on us. I could see this being the setup to not a civil war, but a fucking revolution.

In other words, House Trump and Barr pretty brazenly steal the election post-Election night by fucking with the selection of Electors. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman in a ever-so-droll way, signs away the Republic. She poo-poos the notion that anyone has the right to object to this theft and goes back to telling randos like me that I don’t know anything about (access) journalism.

So, this would be a moment of truth. I honestly can’t tell you which way the public would go. There might be some protestings here and there, but Barr controls the media narrative so completely that The New York Times focuses only on the violences associated with these otherwise peaceful protests and that’s it. We turn into an autocracy without even putting up a fight. Remember, the Women’s March has some pretty huge peaceful protests every year and the national press lulzes them because it’s just a bunch of angry broads, amiright?

The Counter-Coup
This is very iffy because of what I describe above. But let’s say Trump, despite “winning” so absolutely brazen in his theft of the election that he enrages enough of the population that Nancy Pelosi finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY really begins to play white knuckled power politics with Trump. She begins a game of chicken with him.

Now, the thing to remember is, there are a lot of different things that would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. A lot. He’s going to bank on a hard 5-4 vote in his favor at SCOTUS if it comes to that. And he’ll be right. But it’s at least possible that out of sheer desperation, Pelosi drops an H-bomb on Trump’s plans to steal the election.

She announces soon after the last 5-4 SCOTUS vote a two pronged attack against Trump’s coup. First, the House will immediately impeach Trump the moment it comes into session in January. But it won’t be a “skinny” impeachment, it will be a 10 article political MOAB. Everything Trump — and Pence have done over the last four years, from Stormy Daniels to general abuse of power will be thrown into the expansive articles of impeachment. Now, if the Senate hasn’t flipped, then lulz, this is all smoke and mirrors.

MoscowMich does exactly what he did with the first Trump impeachment. But, let’s suppose the Senate does flip. If the country is obviously beginning to fall apart at this point — which would be the only way Pelosi would actually have the guts to do any of this — then there might be a real shot that both Trump AND Pence would be convicted.

This is where things get tricky.

In an effort to placate some very angry Biden voters, Pelosi says she’s going to step aside and have the Democratic House name Biden as speaker of the House, thus putting him in line of succession. The argument that Pelosi could make is that desperate times call for desperate measures and one coup deserves another.

Remember, this would NOT happen in a vacuum. The entire country would likely be on the cusp of implosion at this point. And Trump could very well send in the D.C. national guard (or whatever) to Capitol Hill and try to disperse any impeachment proceedings. But let’s suppose that doesn’t work for some reason, maybe a massive human shield of voters or something.

So both Trump and Pence are convicted — in no large part because Senate Republicans realize the country is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution anyway — and Biden becomes POTUS in a very roundabout manner. He proceeds to name Harris as his veep, and the Senate approves her at a record speed.

If things have gotten THIS BAD, then obviously Trump — who is probably barely hanging on to his sanity — will hold up in the White House. But it’s reasonable to believe that rather than play Hitler-in-the-Berlin-Bunker, he steals Marine One and races to, say, the very CSA-friendly Mobile, Alabama.


Forward Deployed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have lost everything a few times in my life. And, yet, I’ve managed to survive with little more than the clothes on my back. Living in South Korea for five years gave me a very good understanding of my personal skillset. I’m good at abstract and strategic thinking and I’m good in a crisis.

The only reason why I mention any of this the same spidey sense that has managed to get me out of more than one scrap over the years is really beginning to tingle violently. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But damn if I’m going to sit on my hands if the nation I love so much implodes because of a fucking failed TV gameshow host.

But I’m well aware I’m a rando nobody. I don’t even have a Blue Check on Twitter. No one listens to me and they probably shouldn’t, no matter what I say.

And, yet, Something Big is about to happen to the United States in a future that can be counted in months. As it stands, for personal reasons, if my absolute worst fears are realized — civil war / revolution — I’m just going to hunker down. I might try to organize some sort of neighborhood defense if it really got THAT bad.

My absolute worst fear, however, is that simply isn’t going to be enough. My fear is, because of my politics, I’m going to be forced out of my rural MAGA community. I’m going to lose everything AGAIN. If that happens, I head north towards NYC.

The thinking is, if I’m forced out of my town because of my politics, I won’t be alone. It’s not like I’m just going to be a lone Blue person walking north. There’s likely to be so many people doing that same thing that some sort of infrastructure will be built out to accommodate us. As such, I’m going to try to make my way to NYC for no other reason that I have a huge ego and think I can use my personal skillset to make some sort of difference.

Of course, if you think I’m being extremely delusional, you’re probably right. But, like I said, I’m not going to watch idly by while tyranny puts Lady Columbia under a jackboot.

I hate that I even have to think like this now. I think, in all honesty, that Trump’s going to “win” without incident (rather mysteriously) on Election Night and we’ll just continue our drift towards an autocratic managed democracy. If I have to start worrying about being snatched off the street or pushed out a window because of my political views, then, so be it.

But the key thing about crisis management is knowing you’re in a crisis in the first place. We’re in a crisis. It’s up to us to figure out how it all gets sorted out.

Keep the faith, patriots.

Countdown To Implosion: A Very American Coup (And Counter-Coup)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on right now is it’s difficult, if not impossible, to figure out how serious Trump is about staging A Very American Coup and how much is him simply hedging his bets. Trump may simply want a wide-array of options to choose from.

And, remember, Trump must know by this point that Russian hackers are going to (attempt) to directly change the results of the 2020 election by hacking directly into our election computer systems. As such, that MIGHT be the real explanation behind the odd decision on the part of the Trump Campaign to go dark with their advertising in key battleground states right before the election. Trump is lulzing it because he knows nothing matters at this point — the fix is in.

Anyway, let’s imagine he decides to go ahead with his Very American Coup. What happens?

The Coup
The key thing you have to remember is Interior Minister Bill Bar is going to fuck with the election in a very “Who, me?” kind of way. He did it with the Mueller Investigation and he’s going to do it with the election. In fact, I would go so far as to say his success in blunting the blow of Mueller Investigation has given him a very good understanding of what to do.

As long as House Trump controls the post-election narrative, they win. As things grow more and more unhinged, the pressure will be on Biden to accept “defeat” for the “sake of the country.” So, it’s easy to see a situation whereby somehow even though a coup takes place, The New York Times and others play right into Barr’s hands by not even recognizing that a coup has taken place.

And, really, Barr has every reason to believe he will win. So, it’s very possible that even if MAGA state legislatures simply seat Trump Electors out of spite, a wide swath of the mainstream press will go full Vichy on us. I could see this being the setup to not a civil war, but a fucking revolution.

In other words, House Trump and Barr pretty brazenly steal the election post-Election night by fucking with the selection of Electors. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman in a ever-so-droll way, signs away the Republic. She poo-poos the notion that anyone has the right to object to this theft and goes back to telling randos like me that I don’t know anything about (access) journalism.

So, this would be a moment of truth. I honestly can’t tell you which way the public would go. There might be some protestings here and there, but Barr controls the media narrative so completely that The New York Times focuses only on the violences associated with these otherwise peaceful protests and that’s it. We turn into an autocracy without even putting up a fight. Remember, the Women’s March has some pretty huge peaceful protests every year and the national press lulzes them because it’s just a bunch of angry broads, amiright?

The Counter-Coup
This is very iffy because of what I describe above. But let’s say Trump, despite “winning” so absolutely brazen in his theft of the election that he enrages enough of the population that Nancy Pelosi finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY really begins to play white knuckled power politics with Trump. She begins a game of chicken with him.

Now, the thing to remember is, there are a lot of different things that would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. A lot. He’s going to bank on a hard 5-4 vote in his favor at SCOTUS if it comes to that. And he’ll be right. But it’s at least possible that out of sheer desperation, Pelosi drops an H-bomb on Trump’s plans to steal the election.

She announces soon after the last 5-4 SCOTUS vote a two pronged attack against Trump’s coup. First, the House will immediately impeach Trump the moment it comes into session in January. But it won’t be a “skinny” impeachment, it will be a 10 article political MOAB. Everything Trump — and Pence have done over the last four years, from Stormy Daniels to general abuse of power will be thrown into the expansive articles of impeachment. Now, if the Senate hasn’t flipped, then lulz, this is all smoke and mirrors.

MoscowMich does exactly what he did with the first Trump impeachment. But, let’s suppose the Senate does flip. If the country is obviously beginning to fall apart at this point — which would be the only way Pelosi would actually have the guts to do any of this — then there might be a real shot that both Trump AND Pence would be convicted.

This is where things get tricky.

In an effort to placate some very angry Biden voters, Pelosi says she’s going to step aside and have the Democratic House name Biden as speaker of the House, thus putting him in line of succession. The argument that Pelosi could make is that desperate times call for desperate measures and one coup deserves another.

Remember, this would NOT happen in a vacuum. The entire country would likely be on the cusp of implosion at this point. And Trump could very well send in the D.C. national guard (or whatever) to Capitol Hill and try to disperse any impeachment proceedings. But let’s suppose that doesn’t work for some reason, maybe a massive human shield of voters or something.

So both Trump and Pence are convicted — in no large part because Senate Republicans realize the country is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution anyway — and Biden becomes POTUS in a very roundabout manner. He proceeds to name Harris as his veep, and the Senate approves her at a record speed.

If things have gotten THIS BAD, then obviously Trump — who is probably barely hanging on to his sanity — will hold up in the White House. But it’s reasonable to believe that rather than play Hitler-in-the-Berlin-Bunker, he steals Marine One and races to, say, the very CSA-friendly Mobile, Alabama.

And that’s how the country implodes.

‘The Decline & Fall Of The First American Republic’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no Gibbons, but I am self-aware enough to notice we may be careening towards an end-of-epoch moment. And event so unexpected, so spectator on a macro scale, that it will be spoken about for generations — the end of the First American Republic.

Now, let me get some stuff out of the way. What I mean by this is the First Republic was founded with the ratification of the US Constitution in 1789. It’s very possible that the United States, the most powerful nation in the world, is going tits up in a matter of months. We will be effectively neutralized as the “essential nation” that serves as the guarantor of the post-World War 2 global liberal order known as Pax Americana.

Once that happens, a series of major regional wars will erupt and, throwing potentially the very existence of humanity into question. It really could get that bad. China and India are already nearly at war. And it’s well known that Pakistan and India are pretty much just one border skirmish away from exchanging nuclear weapons.

At this point, I would casually note that I still think that one of the reasons why American Evangelicals love, love, love, LOVE Donald Trump is they think he’s the anti-Christ and, as such, will hasten the return of Jesus H. Christ. I would also note that there’s something called the Battle of Armageddon, which is would take place in a real place in the Middle East. It’s pretty easy to imagine that Evangelicals think Trump is going to prompt such a battle between Israel and Iran and Jesus is going to pop out at some point very, very soon.

Anyway, I would also like to note that the First American Republic now faces two possible futures — autocracy or collapse. Absolutely nothing in the real world gives me any indication that, in real terms, we’re not going to simply slide into autocracy with our eyes wide open. Too many things would have to go wrong for House Trump for that to happen.

And, yet, when you have a 50/50 chance that something is going to happen, you have to at least contemplate it.

So.

Implosion.

My current theory is if it Trump isn’t able to steal the election outright on Election Night that things will grow more radical and more surreal every day the question of who the president is hasn’t been answered.

So, Trump stages A Very American Coup by getting MAGA state legislatures to ignore the popular vote altogether and name MAGA Electors. There’s a lot of very upset liberals on Twitter, but Trump is sworn in after a strict 5-4 vote at SCOTUS.

Now, here’s where things get really weird. The Republic at this point may grow a quantum leap more unstable when Nancy Pelosi steps aside and Democrats name Joe Biden Speaker of the House. The moment Trump is sworn in, both he and Pence are impeached. And now we have a crucial condition to assume — the Senate flips. So, as such, there’s a chance that something of a counter-coup could be staged by Democrats.

The Senate Republicans FINALLY buckle because the country is on the cusp of civil war. Biden becomes president after Trump and Pence are convicted. Biden turns around and names Harris his veep.

But wait, there’s more!

You would have to physically remove Trump from the White House. My guess is, if things have gotten this surreal, he blows up the White House and bounces to a safe Red State like Alabama. It would make sense for him to troll the country by flying purloined Marine One to, say, Mobile in yet another sop to his Neo-Confederate base.

This is the moment when the country collapses. The Blue States would absolutely believe that Biden is president. The Red States would absolutely believe that Trump was president. In the end, it wouldn’t be about secession, it would be about who’s vision of the United States was stronger on the field of battle.

Let me be clear — this is, right now, nothing more than sort of a progressive-liberal Turner Diaries. It’s far, far more likely that instead of such an elaborate series of events, that at some point post-Election Night, there’s some sort of major domestic terrorism event (maybe even a Reichstag Fire false flag) and Trump scrambles to consolidate power that way.

The country still implodes, but Trump, having forced the issue, would be able to lean on the U.S. Military to crush any resistance. Or something. All I know is, there are some Blue Check liberals who need to get woke. They have to start thinking about risking things that are important to them in the real world, not having a tweet that goes viral.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I do know we’re not going to have a free-and-fair election. And I know we’re not going to have a peaceful transfer of power.

So, good luck.

Trump’s Very American Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about The Atlantic article published today that makes me feel a lot better — even though the subject is rather dystopian — is it gives me some sense of how we might ultimately remove Trump in some sort of peaceful fashion.

But, first, let’s look at two quotes from the story in that is extremely unsettling.

Ok, here’s the deal — this is exactly the type of post-election shenanigans I have long assumed Trump would pull. In fact, it’s kind of eerie to see something you’ve thought about for years actually really fucking happening — Trump’s going to stage a coup.

But another thing I’ve said is, a lot would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. Bill Barr’s “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation would have to somehow not throw the election for Trump. The fucking with the postal service that Trump allies have done recently would have to somehow not throw the election for Trump. The Russians hacking directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany would somehow no work, either.

As I have long said, the harder it is for Trump to “win” on election night, the more ham-handed and radical he will become post-election. He is literally going to destroy the country to save himself.

Now, here’s something interesting — Trump might be so focused so absolutely on stealing the presidential election, that he doesn’t spend all that much time (if any) worrying about keeping the Senate. He may still keep the Senate, but remember, if he actively steals the presidential election, then the dynamic that would otherwise happen — of him losing and the Senate flipping — would still happen with the Senate.

As such, if Trump were to pull A Very American Coup, then there would be, at least, some political recourse — impeachment. And, this time, the dynamic would be significantly different in that there would actually be political due process once the Articles of Impeachment arrived at the Senate.

It’s easy to see a situation where it wouldn’t just be Trump’s coup that he was tried for, but all the bullshit he’s done over the last four years. So instead of a shame trial in the Senate, Trump gets a very long, very thorough and very excruciating trial.

None of this would happen in a vacuum, of course. The same dynamic that happened with Trump’s first impeachment would happen with this one. Rudy would pop out of his crypt to rant about how it was the impeachment that was the coup and not the coup that Trump actually did. There might be violence. And, fuck, Trump might even press the issue if he got nervous enough by going full tyrant and using a nationalized National Guard to prevent the impeachment trial from taking place at all.

But the argument could be made that our one possible peaceful solution to the Trump “problem” is he’s convicted in the Senate. Then of course, we would have the problem of MAGA-Qanon surrounding the White House and Pence being president illegally, but at least, once we physically removed Trump from the White House, have removed him as an existential threat to the Republic.

For some reason, I find the idea of there at least being SOME possible peaceful solution to tyrant Trump re-assuring.

MAGA-Qanon’s Strategic Error


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that Republicans no longer see democracy as legitimate. It’s nothing more than a means to an end — power. If it doesn’t help them either obtain or maintain power, then it’s an obstacle.

The interesting thing about MAGA-Qanon is they are really setting themselves up for a historic, strategic miscalculation. They are now so consumed by their own ideology, that they are totally conflating the gains they’ve gotten by abusing the politics of liberal democracy with what they think they can get by running around murdering people in cold blood.

Now, of course, they don’t say it that way. They project. They say it’s people like ME who want to hurt people like THEM. They wrap this bullshit in attacks on BLM or Antifa or whatever the latest fucking boogeyman is of the moment. But their obsession with political violence is telling — it’s obviously on THEIR minds.

But why?

Well, it seems as though the basis for their bloodlust is the assumption that the people they hate — namely, people like me — are so degenerate, immoral and debauched that they have something of a moral duty to eliminate them. To solve that particular “problem,” if you will. The latest version of this bullshit is Qanon, which is demonstrably just the age-old blood libel against the Jews repurposed to attack the more general “liberals.”

But the endgame is the same — the implication is that Republicans and their MAGA-Qanon base are itching for a “final solution” to the liberal “problem” in the United States. What started with Reagan Revolution has reached its logical extreme — liberals have, in the eyes of many right wing nutjobs been dehumanized to the point that rounding them up and putting them in the existing ICE camp infrastructure will be seen as morally justified.

And, yet, as with any such whacked out idology, they are completely missing some pretty basic elements of human nature. While obviously MAGA-Qanon would have something of a “first mover advantage” should they get what they want, it’s not going to happen in a vacuum. There will be consequences.

It’s at least possible that after the initial shock of massive, brazen power grab on the part of Trump that the very people that MAGA-Qanon dismiss might have a lot more gumption in them than imagined.

I’m not saying there won’t be a lot of loss of life if MAGA-Qanon begins the “Final Solution,” but I am saying Americans don’t generally brook extremism of that type. When the dust settles, America may be transformed. But not into some sort of real-world  Gilead, but rather a new nation based on a Renewed American Covenant.

Or, put another way — it would be a tragedy. It would be a clusterfuck and I don’t want it. I don’t think people appreciate not only how good we have it America but how much it would fucking suck if Trump steals our birthright out from right in front of our eyes. But it will also suck massively if the country implodes and we have to go through The Stand to get the country back together again.

I don’t have any easy answers for you — we’re going to have to suffer one way or another I’m afraid. The one thing we all want — a peaceful transfer of power — is never going to happen.

Either we slip into autocracy or we implode as a nation.

I honestly don’t know which one is going to happen. Good luck.