Red October: Of Wokeness & The Power Of The Marketplace of Ideas

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the Traditionalist conservatives in my family want autocracy. They don’t come out and say this, probably because they don’t really think in those terms, but that’s what they want. They want a white Christian ethnostate so they can relax, knowing at last, that they don’t risk being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob.” If they can stop libtards from “grooming” children and demanding everyone be gay, all the better.

The interesting thing about all of this is they stress that they “just want to be left” alone while also saying how much they support the marketplace. There is the marketplace of ideas, you know, and that’s where things get interesting in regards to all this abstract fear about the “woke cancel culture mob” ruining their lives simply because they’re conservative.

A lot is being conflated about “wokeness” because it serves the purposes of Fox News and all those myriad of Right wing podcasts that breathlessly give their listens the latest talking points to “own” libs like me. What is “wokeness” but the marketplace of ideas working quite effectively to decide what is, and isn’t acceptable behavior?

But that’s now how my Traditionalist relatives see things. They conflate the growing hard power of MAGA Republicans with the nebulous soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob.” They are so overcome with the abstract fear that they will be “persecuted” simply because their views don’t follow the conventional wisdom media narrative that they are gleefully willing to give up that most basic of American rights — democracy. They don’t like how things are changing and they want to go back to when there was no doubt that white Christians were on top.

They don’t know exactly what the problem is, but they do know that they are enraged by the “crisis at The Border,” how powerful the “gay agenda” is and how it seems no one plays by the rules anymore and everyone expects a handout, to boot.

All of this is very, very murky because there are a lot of moving parts to all of this. Not only have there been a lot of people who have been justifiably “canceled” for doing some pretty shitty things — especially to women — but there have been other, Hollywood types, who have been “canceled” simply because they have been outspoken conservatives.

I think the thing that really bothers one of my Traditionalist conservative relatives is the corporate “sensitivity training” that they apparently have to undergo on occasion. They blame Biden for how much they hate this, even though, lulz, sensitivity training is the free market doing it’s thing. A private company decided that it was in its best fiscal interests to make sure its employees were aware of the changing sensitivities of the modern age.

If we are honest with each other as a nation, I think we would all come to the painful conclusion that we need a National Divorce. I don’t want one, and definitely don’t want a civil war that would result, but I also know I don’t want to live in a fascist MAGA Republican autocracy. As such, should the time come that Blues face a choice of autocracy or National Divorce, I don’t think the latter should be entirely off the table. It’s definitely something to think about seriously in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to strangle what’s left of American democracy with a gleeful, deranged look in their collective eyes.

I do not think it will come to that, however. I don’t think there will ever be a moment — even if it’s absolutely clear that MAGA is going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy — when Blues will be willing to put on their big boy pants and honestly think about secession. We just don’t have it in us. We don’t have any leadership and what the moment it’s clear as to what’s going to happen in the United States in 2025, the liberal intelligentsia is going to be the first out the door for Canada and beyond.

It happened when the Nazis took over Germany and it’s going to happen with the United States.

The only reason why it’s not a foregone conclusion is it hasn’t happened yet. There are too many variables that I can’t game out. A lot of unexpected things could happen that may change the context — or even punt the problem down the road a little bit. We were very, very lucky in 2020 because of a combination of the political consequences of the pandemic and Trump being a lazy moron who was too stupid to pull basic autocrat plays.

A prime example of what I’m talking about.

So, I suppose, it’s possible we might be lucky again.

But I doubt it. I can’t predict the future — no one can — but my mind keeps coming back to how all the macro metrics point to something pretty dramatic happening in the United States in late 2024, early 2025. What that might be — autocracy, civil war or military junta — I just don’t know at the moment.

Regardless, the point is — a lot of what is considered “wokeness” is simply a concrete manifestation of how Blue states and Red states interpret the American experience so differently as to be two different nations, at least in their minds.

The great irony is, of course, that the process of having a National Divorce — civil war — would be so horrific that it would burn off “wokeness” by the time it was all over. People on both the Right and the Left would probably appreciate what’s really important in life and neither side would have to fear being “canceled.”

A few million people might have done in order for us to gain that “freedom,” but lulz.

Now, before I end this rant, let me be absolutely clear — I’m probably a prime candidate to be “canceled” if my dream of selling my first novel becomes a reality and it’s as big a success as I hope. I’m a very flawed person who has done things that probably wouldn’t pass muster with the “woke cancel culture mob.” Despite that, I sure would rather live in a free Blue Union and the white Christian ethnostate of Trumplandia.

Red October: ‘Woke War III’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with this sudden surge of Russian propaganda coming from Silicon Valley Tech Bros? It’s like they all agreed, all at once, to en masse become Fifth Columnists and Fellow Travelers of the Russians.

I get much of the sentiment that these Tech Bros espouse. They look at the cold hard metrics and say that Ukraine isn’t worth risking WW3 for. I find this dubious, however, because what do they expect to happen if we don’t support Ukraine? That Russia won’t see this as weakness and turn around and go after the Baltics? Estonia has a huge Russian population and it definitely would be the prime target for Russia if it was able to crush Ukraine because the West listened to the Russian Fellow Travelers of Silicon Valley.

In fact, they have begun to deride the war in Ukraine as “Woke War III.” Which doesn’t put them in a very good light because what are they trying to say — that WW1 and WW2 were “woke?”

All this has me thinking about how, even though it’s obviously astrology for dudes that the book The Fourth Turning definitely continues to have an eerie relevancy as we careen towards 2025. The very ideas that that book talks about — how in the Third Turning, people forget what war was like and why it was fought to begin with — definitely seems to have some meaning in today’s political world.

The alarming thing is, of course, that all of this is happening in the context of a very possible Counter-Revolution in the United States as Republicans take control of at least the House, if not the Senate too in November. With Republicans in control of Congress in 2023, there’s every reason to believe every moment they’re not impeaching Biden or trying to hold the social safety net hostage they’re going to be doing everything in their power to prevent the US from helping Ukraine.

So, it definitely seems as though we’re on the cusp of a very, very turbulent moment in our nation’s history. It’s going to happen no matter what, obviously, but if the fucking fascist Republicans take the House in November, that is only going to accelerate a very, very dark trend.

‘Upcoming US Civil War’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, I don’t think there’s going to be a Second American Civil War. I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy after a brief death spasm in the general 2024 – 2025 timeframe. Trump, enabled by the entire Republican Party, will steal the 2024 election in broad daylight.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

Trump will begin the process of changing the Constitution so he can stay in power for as long as he likes, but it will ultimately be his hand picked successor who enjoys this new power. At the moment, it could be anyone from DeSantis to Flynn who becomes America’s first true autocrat and stays in power for decades. But there will be consequences to the MAGA New Right catching the car.

A multitude of center-Left people will leave the country at an alarming rate, to the point that our autocrat is forced to make it nearly impossible to leave the country at some point. The “enemy of the people” media will be purged and ICE will be weaponized so people like me are “re-educated” or worse. The country will grow weaker and poorer, “bringing the boys home” and hiding behind Fortress America. Just as this is happening, China will rise and they will peacefully replace the United States as the most powerful nation in the world. The United States, on a political basis, will become an autocratic clone of Russia.

I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems as though that’s a pretty good scenario to explain our immediate future history.

And, yet, there remains a lingering greater-than-zero possibility that the MAGA New Right is so bloodthirsty that they could self-own on a pretty massive scale. There is a chance that Trump, unto himself, could be the historical thing that pushes us not into autocracy, but civil war. It could be that Trump’s tendency to “say the quiet part outloud” could so rile up Blue States that we have a civil war, even though otherwise we wouldn’t.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

A modern civil war in the United States would be a catastrophe. The country is awash with various forms of WMD and it’s very easy to imagine that Red States, when confronted with they can’t win a civil war just by being mad all the time, will turn to WMD to make their point. The most powerful nation in the world will promptly bomb itself into the Stone Age.

And while we’re doing that, globally, WW3 will take place and billions will die as a result of various limited nuclear exchanges.

Then the question becomes — what does the world look like when we come out the other side of this clusterfuck? Do we unite because of our common humanity or do we just let ourselves cook?

Of course, there is the other option of some sort of military junta in the United States, but that’s something I suspect only works on paper.

Anyway, it could go either way. Enjoy these last few twilight months of normal life while you can.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: What Is To Be Done


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I struggle to understand the thinking of people who poo-poo my belief that Something Dark is going to happen to the United States between now and January 2025. I struggle to understand what they see that I can’t.

One possible explanation is they’ve already made the cognitive leap to accepting autocracy. They see Trump’s autocratic leanings strictly through the lends of tactical policy and an overreaction from people like me who reduce to “Orange Man Bad.” They look forward to what, in effect, would be an autocracy and they lulz the whole thing.

They will be getting the America they want and fuck you, lib.

Another explanation is the people who roll their eyes at my growing concern just don’t look at the world in the same way I do. They’re not Very Online and they’re so busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage that the idea that the United States would longer be a democracy is just not something they can process. Or, if they try, then they fall back to the old saw that the United States isn’t a democracy, but rather a constitutional representative republic.

This rationalization will serve them well when, using the quirks of the Constitution, the Republicans manage to stay within the letter of the law, but not its spirit. For them, the dusty portions of the Constitution that Republicans will use to nullify any Democrat becoming president will give them enough cover to shrug and be Good Americans.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

Not until our new Republican autocrat begins to consolidate power and their, specific life begins to be harmed on a personal level will they sit up and take notice. Then, of course, it will be way too late and they will complain in private about how how wrong they got it. While people like, me of course, will be dead at the hand of an ICE agent. Lulz!

Remember, we’re dealing with macro historical trends. Everyone sees the whole differently because what’s going on is just too big. But it definitely seems as though what’s going on in the United States is precursor to a pretty huge shift in American life.

At the moment, I’m very much in the peaceful transition to autocracy camp. But occasionally, there are pings from a far darker future that make me sit up and take notice. Take, for instance, this:

Add to such rhetoric the continued grumbling by MAGA New Right “thought leaders” that liberals just won’t leave them alone and, as such are “driving them” to violence and it makes you wonder. Is it possible that in the end, when given the opportunity to peacefully get everything they want, that the MAGA New Right will be so fucking bloodthirsty that they will push the country into a tragic and avoidable civil war?

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

    At the moment, I just don’t know. It could definitely go either way, even though I, personally, think we’re going to avoid a civil war. But I do enjoy running that particular scenario because it makes my abstract fears about political violence concrete and, as such, easier to process.

Some of my uncertainty comes from we’re just too far out from the main event. Usually big historical events, once they happen, are actually decided on a very specific tactical basis. So, going in to the certain to be unstable 2023 – 2025 timeframe, things really can go either way.

It won’t be until Trump makes up his mind about running again or how many times Biden and Harris are impeached by the soon-to-be Republican Congress that we can begin to get a better handle on which direction we’re going to go. So, I can totally see why someone might think I’m full of shit to rant so much about the civil war scenario.

But they are fooling themselves if they think the United States is going to remain a functioning democracy, or even a “constitutional representative republic.” An autocracy is not a republic. And that’s what we’re going to be the moment a Republican becomes president again — an autocracy.

The reason I’m so certain about this is multifold, but boils down to two self-evident metrics. One, autocracy is very popular with a pretty big portion of the electorate. And, two, Trump has made it clear to any Republican worth their mettle that our democratic institutions are undead.

Put those two together and we’re going to become an autocracy sooner rather than later. And the weakest moment for the autocracy will be the moment of its conception — at some point in late 2024 or early 2025. If it becomes clear that Republicans are going to transition us into autocracy and, well, nothing happens, then that will be that .But if Blue States take a stand and start to leave the Union, then we enter a high risk, high reward situation.

And I honestly don’t know which one we’re going to choice. There is the third, far less likely option of military junta, but that’s something that at the moment is something that is only possible theoretically on paper.

But the fact remains — enjoy these final twilight months of traditional American life. The moment Republicans have any Federal power again, some pretty big events will happen one way or another. Either you’re complicit in the rise of fascist autocracy, or you’re not. The choice is up to you.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: Prediction 2023 — A Republican Congress, Speaker Trump & The Impeachment of Both Biden & Harris


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit are things going to get a lot worse soon. It is a testament to how we’ve crossed the Event Horizon of a potential “Fourth Turning” that we have to take seriously the possibility that Trump will become Speaker when the House flips as part of the 2022 mid-terms.

If that very real possibility becomes a reality, then all my dystopian hellscape predictions for 2024 – 2025 may happen a few years earlier. The country is running on political fumes at the moment. Just the added pressure of Speaker Trump ranting about how Biden and Harris absolutely have to be removed from office might be enough to tip us into significant political violence.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But one thing is clear — there is a 100% chance that both Biden and Harris will be impeached for something, anything if the Republicans win the House. Speaker Trump would just be the autocratic cherry on top. That I have to take the prospect of a Speaker Trump this seriously is sign enough that we’re very, very, very fucked.

This next year is literally potentially the last year the United States will be anything akin to a functioning democracy. This will especially be the case if Speaker Trump actively incites political violence as a ploy to force Senate Democrats to convict Biden and Harris.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Even if that doesn’t happen, 2022 will be the testing grounds for Steve Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level and if it becomes extremely obvious that it has succeeded, we will face the choice of either confronting this death of democracy, or simply slipping peacefully into autocracy.

Steve K. Bannon

At the moment, I think we’re going to avoid a civil war and slip peacefully into autocracy. The only unknowns are if the MAGA New Right is so bloodthirsty that they force the issue and if Trump is so stupid by saying the quiet part out loud that that, too, forces the issue.

But the Establishment has a vested interest in avoiding a civil war outside of those two factors mentioned above, I think we’re going to wake up 20 years from now and the United States and Russia will be identical on a political level. President DeSantis (or Flynn, or whomever) will have been president for a generation. There will be the occasional big protest across the country that we’ll hear about through the BBC and a lot of talk about how this or that thing might bring down the American autocrat…but jack shit will actually happen.

This is not an abstract for me. I’m just the type of loud mouth anti-MAGA person who would likely die at the hands of an ICE agent. The time for using the term “hope” as a talking point is long over. The time to think existentially on a personal basis is here.

The future is dark, and growing darker by the moment.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: No One Is Going To Save Us From The MAGA New Right


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s comical how Twitter liberals continue to struggle with — or are completely obviously to — the cold, hard reality that we’re on our own when it comes to our dark, dark future.

Who knows which future we’ll pick.

There will be no reform. There will be no “boom” that changes everything. We can no long simply “hope” that somehow, someway, the entire MAGA New Right edifice is going to magically come crashing down.

We have to admit that in the end, we may be forced into a corner by MAGA. Things are going to grow existential, especially if Steve Bannon’s administrative coup plan works. As early as 2022, we may be faced with the very real world of us either admitting that we’re going to be an autocracy or we have some sort of civil war.

I really, really don’t violence and I definitely don’t want a civil war. But the MAGA New Right is so full if itself, so bloodthirsty that they could very well force the issue, over and above the successful implementation of Bannon’s administrative coup.

The MAGA New Right could be on the cusp of peacefully getting everything they want, only to blow it because first, Trump always says the quiet part out loud and two, their own bloodlust gets the best of them.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how dire our striates are at the moment. We really are careening towards the existential decision of civil war or autocracy (or maybe military junta) and there will be no improvements to our lot. We pretty much have — on a political level — everything we’re going to have in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe.

We are so, totally fucked.

There are no easy answers. No easy solutions. And victory is the MAGA New Right’s to lose.

Given that they’re led by deranged lunatic Donald Trump, anything is possible.

Red October: America’s Endgame Enigma


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The general unease in the United States right now comes from there being no obvious endgame to what’s going on. On one hand, it seems clear that the country is going to peacefully slip into autocratic managed democracy when Republicans brazenly steal first the 2022 mid-terms and then the 2024 presidential election. Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

On paper, this will all happen peacefully and in the open. The center-Left lacks the leadership and the backbone to do anything about it. Trump becomes president, he picks a successor and at some point in the 2025 -2029 timeframe, we have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and that will be that. President Flynn or DeSantis or whomever will become effectively president for life and 20 years from now we’ll be talking about Generation Flynn (or whomever.)

Under this scenario, we’ll avoid the any conflict with a rising China because the United States will recede to Fortress America at just about the same time. Millions of center-Left people will flee the country and the United States will begin a downward spiral into a “shit hole country.” Those who remain who don’t kowtow to the autocrat will be “re-educated,” killed or tortured into submission.

That, at the moment, seems like the logical endgame to what’s going on. But for one thing.

Donald Trump.

Or, to put it more broadly, how the MAGA New Right has developed enough bloodlust that they may very well bungle what should be a historical gimmie and lose everything because they want to murder people like me for political reasons.

In this other endgame, because of Trump saying the quiet part out loud, when we have the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025, instead of the MAGA New Right letting history run its course, they intentionally push us into civil war just because they have come to glorify political violence for the sake of political violence. Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

This would be an epic self-own on the part of the MAGA New Right because they pretty much have a clear shot at turning the United States into a Russian clone without firing a shot. They would lose that if they forced the issue and made desperate Blue States organize their defense not in halls of Congress, but on the field of battle.

In general, I’m of the opinion that Blue States would win a Second Civil War, even though the gratuitous use of sized WMD would make such a victory extremely costly. Even if Blue States won a Second Civil War, the whole world would be remade while we fought it.

WW3 would happen around the world as regional wars broke out all at the same time. Billions would die after a number of limited nuclear exchanges. So, one could imagine the post-Second American Civil War Era being a lot like what happened after WW2.

But that’s only if the Blue States win. And, this time, the entire globe would be recovering from an epic clusterfuck of our own making. If you wanted to be hopeful, you could say just like after WW2, such a horrible global experience would cause humanity to work collectively to solve existential issues like global climate change.

Yet, I’m doubtful.

A Second American Civil War would be extremely high risk, high reward, to the point that maybe slipping peacefully into autocracy isn’t all that bad after all. But the fact remains — I honestly don’t know which one of those two paths we’re going to go down. There is the third option of some sort of temporary military junta, but that’s the least likely of the three scenarios.

Anyway, get a passport. Start thinking existentially on a personal basis. You probably have a few years. Use them to prepare.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

Red October: Is Civil War Coming?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you’re asking the question, “Is civil war coming,” you probably want a pat, easy answer that either makes you feel better or alarms you. Sadly, I can’t predict the future and can’t give you the type of answer you want.

What I can give you is some sense of why it’s at least possible that we might have a civil war in a few years, probably around 2024 – 2025. Here are a few reasons off the top of my head.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But, back to your question. I don’t know. Yet, a civil war is definitely one of a few options facing us in the next few years. At the moment, I think we have three options: autocracy, civil war or a military junta. One thing I want to make absolutely clear — no one is going to save us.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

I’m just telling you general long-term metrics. No one can predict the future.

The Guns Of Red October: What We Have Here Is A Dead Frog


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Darkness has come to America. I say this because it’s pretty obvious that the MAGA New Right has made the cognitive leap necessary for there eventually to be something akin to a Second American Civil War.

In fact, I would even go so far as to propose that much like the Great Powers in the lead up to WW1, MAGA would rather there be a civil war than simply be patient and let the country inevitably transition to autocracy.

“Red October”

That’s who we endup with badshit fucking insane Red October concept which is pretty much just a catch-all for fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right idiots to try to suck their own cocks. Even they don’t know what “Red October” means. It just sounds like some sort of vague idea that there will be a MAGA New Right-themed “revolution” of some sort this October. Ugh. Fucking idiot cocksuckers.

So, there’s a chance that even though it’s pretty clear there’s a decent chance that the United States will peacefully transition into autocracy in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe, that MAGA New Right people will go out of their way to ensure there’s a civil war just so they can start murdering people like me in cold blood.

And, as I have said repeatedly, the main issue we face is that autocracy is very popular in the United States. A huge segment of the electorate no longer believes in democracy and is eager for us to become a MAGA New Right autocracy. They will cheer for joy when it arrives, only to regret their decision when the actions of the new regime somehow begin to harm them on a personal basis.

I really wish Twitter liberals would stop the pretense and accept that no one is going to save us — we have to save ourselves. We have to accept that all the usual peaceful means we might use to influence the course of the country — the things we typically call “politics” — are either dead or dying. We have to stop having “hope” that this or that thing will change or be reformed. Some reasons why we might have a civil war:

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Nothing is going to change and nothing is going to be reformed.

We have to work with what we have at the moment. We have to begin, on a personal level, to prepare for the existential choice of civil war or autocracy that we face around 2025. There are no easy solutions. No “booms” or nasty, pointed Twitter threads that will save us.

Things are dark and going to get darker. What’s your plan?

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Red October:’ Be Careful What You Wish For, Mr. Bannon — You Just Might Get It


by Ender

Fuck Steve K. Bannon. That piece of shit. Having said that, I have to respect him for actively organizing in the real world the destruction of American democracy at its weakest link; the local level.

As I’ve written before, the thing about Bannon is, the jury is still out if he’s just an avatar for how fucked up the United State is — like Trump — or if he’s a potential Great Man who actually puts his own will on the course of history. I’m leaning towards him just being an avatar because even though he’s putting in the hard work in the real world that Twitter liberals refuse to do, it’s still pretty easy work.

Steve K. Bannon

He’s able to do it in broad daylight and there are plenty of crazed MAGA New Right cocksuckers who are primed and ready to go — all they need is a bit of direction at Bannon’s behest.

So, I dunno.

Bannon and I are a lot alike in our ability to take abstract concepts and make them concrete. We’re at exact opposite ends of the political spectrum, however. And I’m not nearly the suck-my-own-cock-ideolog that Bannon is. So, I feel as though he’s so wrapped up in his dream of being a modern day Lenin that he is missing some key problems with his plan.

What Bannon wants to do is a replay of 2000. He wants to steal the 2022 and 2024 elections in broad daylight, but in such a way that the very thing he thinks is so evil — the liberal press media narrative — will cause a collective shrug from the population when it all happens. He’s betting that the can smother democracy in broad daylight and because the neoliberal shills of corporate media have a vested interest in keeping everyone placid he’ll get away with it.

By January 2025, the administration of elections in the United States will be so corrupted by Bannon’s “shock troops” that it will be taken for granted that we’re no longer a democracy and, lulz, why did we even care in the first place. And, I have to Bannon credit, at the moment, I think he’s probably going to pull it off.

The MAGA New Right will gently transition us from liberal democracy to autocratic managed democracy and within a generation CNN will be owned by FOX and singing the praises of our system which is just like the perfect system found in Russia.

And, yet.

This has not happened yet. This is also a possibility that everything will be going fine for Bannon until he gets what he wants. Then, instead of everyone just shrugging and letting him get away with it, there’s a massive fucking freak out and the country descends into an actual hot, fighting civil war.

But it’s one of those things that you can’t predict. The entire system is designed to keep Americans believing they live in a democracy and that there’s no need to turn to violence should that no longer be the case. So, at the moment, Bannon’s totally logical to think he can pull of a stunt like I just described.

And, yet, if Bannon get what he wants, well, he might just get what he wants. It could be that the moment it becomes clear that his effort at nullifying any Democratic win at the local level has been successful, the average non-MAGA person may grow so enraged that, well, some pretty dark shit happens.

Or, to put it another way, the moment Bannon succeeds, may be the moment he fails. Political historical events like the type Bannon is plotting don’t happen in a vacuum. There would be some sort of consequence and potentially a lot of unintended consequences.