I have given this way too much thought and it seems as though there are two main scenarios that would lead to the US having a civil war of some sort.
Trump Loses In this scenario, Trump loses fair and square and he’s so afraid of going to jail for the rest of his life that he starts to scream at the top of his lungs about the need for a “National Divorce.” States like Texas take him up on it and, there you go, civil war.
Trump Wins In this scenario, Trump wins and goes full tyrant starting on January 20th. At some point Blues have had enough and there’s some sort of coordinated resistance to the Red King to the point that the U.S. Military deposes him. This, in turn, causes the Red States — who love the Red King — to freak the fuck out and the call up secessionist conventions.
So, it seems our best bet is either Trump loses and he manages to just sling peacefully into political oblivion, or he wins and he somehow manages to transition the US into a MAGA-themed autocracy without pissing Blues off so much that there’s a revolution
The issue about any sort of civil war or revolution because of ding-dong Trump thrashing around history is how much it would suck, suck, suck. It would be not sexy or fun. It would be a horrible tragedy.
And the more I think about it, the more I realize that we could very well be on the cusp of nothing short of the most powerful nation in the world bombing itself into the stone age because of…vibes. Once you start things like revolution and civil war, it is very, very difficult to stop it.
So, it’s very possible that we could have a solid decade of death and destruction starting in late 2024. Now that really sounds hysterical, but there is an air of inevitability when it comes to Trump coming to power again that is very eerie. It’s like we’ve just decided that we all have to “go through some things” to get it all out of our system.
And remember none of this catastrophic tragedy would happen in a geopolitical vacuum. If the United States is imploding, that will mean that the greater world is exploding into WW3. At least a billion people could die specifically and directly because of ding-dong Trump because he will have caused the US to implode into civil war / revolution.
I know how hysterical that all sounds, but we have to start taking shit like that seriously. We have to sit up and take notice about where things are heading. And part of that is taking seriously how bad this new, war-torn America would be for the everyday person.
The chief thing is how any form of communication would probably be a premium. Command and control would be the first thing each side of any war in the United States would try to knock out and, as such, there’s a good chance that once the ball started rolling most of us would have no idea what the fuck was going on outside of our immediate neighborhood.
And if the absolute worst happens, we’ll all be so busy struggling to eat and avoid various explosions that we just won’t have time to worry about what our pronouns are any other form of identity politics — it’s hard to be “woke” when everything is very, very existential on a daily basis.
But only time will tell. It could be I’m overthinking all of this and we’ll either drift peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy or Trump will lose and he’ll just slink away into the political darkness.
It is becoming apparent to me that the usual suspects of the American intelligentsia are willfully hiding from the American public how fucking bad it will get if ding-dong Trump wins re-election.
The more I learn about Trump’s plans for his second term, the more alarmed I grow. The reason is — he wants to rule as a Red King over the Blue States. And somehow thinks that simply invoking the Insurrection Act will make all his dictatorial dreams come true.
And that is just not how these things work.
So, the smarty pants of The Atlantic are saying everything but the obvious — America is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution if Trump wins a second term for the simple fact that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.
Trump will have no MAGA SA at his disposal. The USA has a long history as a strong, stable democracy — it’s not the Weimar Republic. The US is far bigger and far more decentralized than the Weimar Republic of 1933. And, in general, the tool that Trump thinks he can use to knock heads — the U.S. Military — is a foundation of the American democratic tradition.
So, if it is Trump, rather than, say, Ron DeSantis, who gets the opportunity to become America’s Republican autocrat — shit is going to hit the fucking fan pretty quick. And the fine folks at The Atlantic apparently want to dance around this fact, rather than shake the American population by the shoulders and tell them DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS IN 20204????
I guess the nattering nabobs of negativism simply don’t want to scare people because at the moment it’s all rather abstract. I mean, we don’t KNOW what will happen in a Trump second term, we can only speculate. It definitely *seems* as though Trump will try to subjugate Blue States as a Red King, they will fight back and the country has something akin to a Blue “Glorious Revolution,” which, in turn causes a Red Secession Crisis and…we’re going to the show.
Blues may turn into Blue Meanies before 2025 is over with.
The greatest country the world has ever seen will implode because of…vibes? Because Red Alpha Males are strangely so insecure in their masculinity that they hate gay people? What the what?
But, here we are. It could be that in about a year the final bolts will fly off the United States and some rather dramatic events may happen. Or….Trump loses and he somehow has a brain transplant and slinks into the political night without demanding a National Divorce so he stays out of prison?
I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I’m growing more and more alarmed!
Some of the political rhetoric spewing out of the MAGA Republican right these days is so insane that it’s hard not to see how all of this ends in civil war / revolution or some sort of Pol Pot American Killing Fields. I mean, it is a tenant of faith at the moment in most Republican circles that Democrats personally kill a baby at least once a day.
And it continues to get worse. Trump keeps cribbing off of Nazi ideas in his speeches in a way to telegraph exactly what he plans to do. Now, there is something interesting to think about.
If Trump is re-elected, I assume he’ll go after undocumented people by dramatically building out the existing ICE infrastructure. But it definitely seems as though once things get going that MAGA is coming for gay people in a big way. But it won’t stop there — because form follows function, the Jews will inevitable be put in the camps along with the undocumented, the gay, and the mentally ill.
But, of course, none of this is going to happen in a political vacuum. And never forget that Trump doesn’t have an American SA to knock heads. He doesn’t have a nation-wide paramilitary group of a few million men to swoop in after he’s re-elected and bash the heads in of Blues to “persuade” them to keep their head down while Trump establishes Trumplandia.
The United States is just too diverse and decentralized for anyone — much less ding-dong Trump — to establish a military dictatorship without the assistance of an SA-like paramilitary group. So, even if 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country starting in late 2024, there will still be PLENTY of Blues who refuse to kowtow to Tyrant Trump.
What that will mean in real terms for the future of the country, I just don’t know. But we can all point to the bonkers Right wing rhetoric that’s being pumped out at the moment, a year before, as a sign of things to come.
Jesus Christ. The thing about having to deal with macro trends on a personal basis is a lot of times events just make no fucking sense. But, here we are — because of a number of long-term macro trends, America is face to face with fascism for the first time in its history.
And if we don’t transition into a fucking fascist state, we’re going to collapse into either a civil war or a revolution. While we’re on the subject of shit like a civil war — we don’t need a big budget action movie about a civil war called Civil War, we need a Threads-like movie that depicts how much a civil war or revolution would s u c k.
My big complaint about the Civil War trailer is there is a basic assumption about communication that is just wrong. If a civil war / revolution really broke out in the US communication would be at a premium because that would be the first thing that each side tried to knock out. If the general population has no clue as to what is going on, then they’re a lot easier to attack.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the potential use of WMD by both sides if things REALLY got bad. AND, you have to address that outside the United States, about 1 billion people could die because, lulz, the US just won’t be able to make sure nations like India and Pakistan don’t use nukes on each other. It really could get that bad.
And, what’s more — there are no assurances that “the good guys” (IE, people I like) would win a revolution / civil war. And there are no assurances that the war would end in such a way that the country was put back together. In fact, our best bet is some sort of United States of North America is formed after whatever history gets done sorting out the massive clusterfuck that may be heading towards us.
Jesus Christ. I continue to read a flood of articles that detail malignant ding-dong Trump’s plans for the U.S. Military when he is “dictator for a day.” The issue is — at its heart, the U.S. Military is a democratic institution. It just doesn’t make any sense that Tyrant Trump can order the U.S. Military to effectively be his SA.
The Nazi SA was a bunch of fucking street brawling thugs who would kick your teeth in if you stood your ground against Nazi aggression. And while, yes, there are plenty of paramilitary groups floating around the US at the moment — the Patriot Front being the one that unnerves me the most — the US of 2025 will not be Germany 1933.
It would take at LEAST 18 months for Tyrant Trump to organize and build out an American SA of no less than 1 million hateful thugs who would beat the shit out of people like me in the streets to “persuade” them to go alone with the America First agenda.
So. Trump and his toadies can pencil in “thugs TBA” in their 2025 agenda all they like — there would be a huge window of opportunity for a General Strike or a Woman’s Strike to pressure the U.S. Military to slow walk –at a minimum –the implementation of Tyrant Trump’s more tyrannical orders.
I mean, the U.S. Military wouldn’t even use tanks for Trump’s fucking 4th of July parade in D.C. because it would “tear up the pavement” and you mean to tell me they would turn into street brawlers at the behest of a ding-dong like Trump? Really?
It definitely seems as though someone hasn’t really though through the implications of all these nefarious, tyrannical plans they have gamed out for 2025. There will come a point soon after Trump goes full tyrant in 2025 when there will be a severe and direct reaction on the part of Blues against his tyrannical behavior.
I’m not advocating anything, just pointing out the obvious.
Here are my personal opinions as to why each one of the potential endgames might happen. Civil War (Right) * Trump simply will not accept defeat. * As such, faced with the possibility of going to prison, Trump might demand a National Divorce to keep his sorry ass out of it. * They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so the moment Trump begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce, it’s possible that states — probably starting with Texas — will take him up on it. * Because of corrosive issues like abortion and guns, it’s possible that the whole system will collapse given some added pressure. Punt * Something unexpected could happen like happened in 2020. * It’s always possible that even if Trump demands a National Divorce after losing, Red States may choke and not initiate a Secession Crisis. * There’s no evidence that we’re actually on the cusp of a civil war. Revolution (Left) * Trump is so stupid and so lazy that rather than do basic autocratic moves, he could go full tyrant — in Blue States at least — in such a way that pisses people off so much that they want to overthrow Trump. * It’s possible that Trump could be so brazen and chaotic in his tyranny in Blue States that people who would otherwise be pretty chill with an *autocrat* will freak the fuck out if Trump is actual *dictator*. * Any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump would be extremely risky and might only serve to make him more powerful in the end. *It’s possible that because so many smug liberals have left the country after election day that there won’t be any leadership left to direct any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump
It is clear to me that Trump’s “dictatorship” will actually be more of a hybrid than a true dictatorship. He essentially wants to use the power of Red States to force Blue States to submit to his will. This is, of course, a very volatile situation with no apparent endgame.
It’s not like Trump is hiding what he wants to do, though. In the now notorious Sean Hannity interview, it went out of his way to use the word “dictatorship.” I can only imagine that this is a bit of FUD on his part. He wants to stoke the energy of the base while scaring the shit out of, well, people like me.
Trump says there are two things he wants to do for his “one day dictatorship.” He wants to close the border and “drill baby drill.” Why he couldn’t do either one of those things by using the traditional governance in the United States is something of a mystery. (America is pumping out oil at an unpreceded level.)
Given what we know how ding-dong’s mind works, by the time the election rolls around, he will pretty much be saying “I WILL BE A DICATOR” at the top of his lungs. And people will still vote for him.
I just don’t see how this is going to work. Yes, he could re-imagine the U.S. Military in his own imagine. But for two things — one, the American Military is a democratic institution on an existential basis. And two, what ding-dong really wants is an SA to knock heads. And the Blue portions of the US are so huge and populated that…oh boy. He would have to organize and build out an American SA of no less than 500,000 shock troops.
It would take time to do that. And the whole country could be collapsing into political chaos as he was calling up the “good old boy reserves” in rural Red States. It would just take time. The Nazi SA was built out over the course of a decade. Tyrant Trump has made it clear he wants to be a dictator from the get-go, so, I dunno.
It will be a curious time in American politics and history.
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