Month: September 2021

I Haven’t Been This Spooked For America’s Geopolitical Future Since COVID19 Broke Out In Wuhan



by Ender

I got a lot wrong about the COVID19 pandemic when COVID was first reported in Wuhan. The biggest thing I got wrong was how deadly it would be. Given the first reports of how much of a freakout the Chinese government was going through, I assumed we were in for The Stand levels of death ahead of us. I remember going to the grocery story and imagining what it would be like to rummage for food there in some sort of post-apocalyptic, COVID ravaged world.

Things turned out to be bad, but not that bad.

The worst we had was a run on toilet paper, of all things.

I went to the grocery store today and it wasn’t COVID I was worried about, it was a Second American Civil War.

I looked at the bountiful shelves of food and products and wondered if one day — probably at some point after January 2025 — I would walk into the same grocery story and there….just wouldn’t be anything there because the country had imploded into civil war.

This particular dark vision isn’t months away, but years away. And it’s only one of several potential options ahead of us. But for Trump running again, it’s easy to imagine my fears of political violence around January 2025 being way, way overblown.

All things being equal, if Trump isn’t the Republican nominee in 2024, it’s very easy to see us simply slipping peacefully into autocracy. The trains will continue to run on time, if you will.

But Trump definitely seems like he’s going to run again and, as such, the likelihood that he, through sheer idiotic incompetence will push the United States into civil war grows to at least 50 /50, if not more. And, what’s worse, the case could be made that it won’t even be the 2024 presidential cycle that does it, but the 2022 mid-term cycle.

I say this because Steve Bannon et al are aggressively working to corrupt the institutions associated with what we take for granted in the United States — the administration of free and fair elections. It’s at least possible that if it’s widely believed that the 2022 midterms were corrupt that a civil war could break out then, not as part of the 2024-2025 post-election day shenanigans that I fear.

Steve Bannon

And all of this is largely being planned in broad daylight. Bannon is organizing the staffing of election boards across the nation with insane, bonkers Big Lie advocates who might get a little bit too big for their britches in 2022 and push us into a civil war two years earlier than I currently expect.

Because, make no mistake, Bannon and his toadies are recalibrating from the failure of the January 6th Insurrection. It’s possible that they might concluded that if there’s no sexxy TV footage of people going nuts and storming the Capitol, that the talking heads of MSM will lulz things.

This seems dubious to me, but it’s that type of miscalculation that starts wars — civil or otherwise.

But there are too many known unknowns right now. Things could go a lot of different ways. I would suggest you start to think about 2022, and not 2024-2025 being the Fourth Turning, however.

We Need A ‘United Front’ To Combat Bannon’s Efforts To Be The Doula Of Tyranny


by Ender

Steve Bannon is full of shit. But, so am I at times. It’s eerie to me how similar Bannon and I are when it comes to our fascination with wargaming. At the moment, Bannon is on the march. The nebulous group of agitators he leads are destroying the institution we use to elect people in our previously free-and-fair elections.

Steve Bannon, doula of autocracy

And because we’re letting him do this in broad daylight, he has a huge advantage. No one is going to stop him. By the time 2024 rolls around, all the conditions will be there for us to slip peacefully into autocracy. But, of course, for one thing — if Donald Trump runs again, then, we’re probably going to have a civil war.

So, if anyone would listen to me — which they won’t — here’s what I would do in response. Lean into the passion, leadership and vision of the people associated with The Lincoln Project. (I’m not unaware of their lingering scandals, etc, but I’m working with what I got.) Then you get the usual Deep State Radio podcast folks and the Crooked Media folks to form a United Front with them

Then you plot.

Once you establish that because of Bannon’s tyrannical machinations that we’re at the very beginning of a severe political crisis, we need to stop dicking around. If we can get some concrete nation-wide plans organized for what we’re going to do when the entire election system fails us in 2024, we’ll at least be a lot better off than we would be if we just wait for Bannon’s evil little baby of Trumplandia to be born.

They key thing is — stop relying upon hope. Trump has proven time and again that if you rely upon “hope” to fix him as a problem, you’re suffering from a mixture of denial and delusion.

The first order of business for this proposed United Front would be what to do at the critical juncture in the 2024-2025 timeframe when we face autocracy or civil war. And if it looks like the country is — gulp — going to actually descend into civil war (ugh) what will Blue State war aims be?

I only stress this because Bannon has specific war aims for any civil war. It’s all they fucking talk about these days! They want to establish a white, autocratic Christian ethno state of “blood and soil” where scary brown people controlled and women know their “place.”

Instead of waiting for the civil war to start, the United Front needs to game out the ideology of the Blue States, now. What would the Fight To Save The Union be about? What would be for? Who would be good political leaders in such a crisis for Blue States to rely upon on an existential level?

For no other reason than it gives me some sense of empowerment, I’m probably going to spend way too much mental energy thinking up what all those goals should be in the coming days.

Trump Is Definitely Fucking With Texas


by Ender

For all their talk about “don’t mess with Texas,” it sure looks like Texas Republicans are letting Trump grab them by the pussy. Hell, maybe even do some butt stuff before it’s over with.

I once read a great book about how Huey Long (who was a far better autocrat than Trump has ever been) had near-dictatorial control over the politics of Louisiana during the Great Depression. In modern day Texas, it seems when Trump says “jump,” Texas Republicans are already jumping like they’re Trump’s bitch.

Here’s what I believe is going on — Texas has all the problems of the United States in micro. Texas is shifting blue because of changes in demographics and this is causing a great deal of existential insecurity on the part of Texas Republicans. In short — there is no such thing as a moderate Texas Republican now. The entire Texas Republican Party, on a systemic basis, has radicalized to the point that Trump has absolute power over them.

This is a prime example of how we need to start doing triage. Just write Texas off on a political level. There are a number of states across the Union that we just have to write off in the context of, well, politics. Texas is the biggest of them because we’ve reached an autocratic critical mass. Going into whatever happens in January 2025 — Texas is a lost cause.

It’s because of such bullshit that I think our best course of action is “strategic retreat” for the time being. Instead of wasting time, energy and cash attempting to do traditional politics with Republicans that are hell bent on establishing an autocratic white Christian ethno state, pull back and start to figure out long-term goals.

Chief among them, sad to say, would be: what should Blue State civil war war aims be? At this point that really sounds like some of the “hysterical doom shit” that I’ve been accused of peddling by “Mueller, She Wrote,” but I honestly don’t know what else to tell you.

The fact that ding-dong Trump has absolute political control over the Great State of Texas is a “not great, Bob” type of realization. We have to stop deluding ourselves as to what is about to happen. Steve Bannon is actively working to serve as “doula” to American tyranny and we’re letting him pull it off in broad daylight.

So — we pull back, use these last few years of peace and quiet to figure out our strengths. I hate to talk like this because, lulz, I sound like Steve Bannon. Maybe he can adopt me like Bill the Butcher.

A Modest Proposal


by Ender

I’ve come to believe that the very existence of American billionaires is a travesty and they should be taxed at such a rate that they no longer exist.

And I say this as someone who loves capitalism and thinks everyone should strive to make an honest living a best they can. It’s just, if your economy has billionaires, something is out of whack. Or, if you want to be even more nuanced about it — if your economy is producing billionaires that pay little or no taxes, something is seriously wrong. Wrong to the point that it’s immoral.

But this is simply an impossible idea in modern, peaceful America. But if there was a civil war, ahh, then you could probably pull it off. So, given a Second Civil War is the high risk, high reward option (with autocracy being the other) I would propose that if we have to have a civil war (which I hope we won’t) that we simply seize the assists of billionaires to fund the war effort.

And, yet, all of that is very fantastical. Any war — civil or otherwise — is not something anyone controls. And, let me be clear, there is a good chance that your side won’t win if there is a civil war. So — don’t start a civil war.

If the only other option we had wasn’t autocracy, but, say, a new Progressive Era, then that would be a peaceful way to soak the rich to the point that the U.S. Government could be solvent and we could go about our business without lurching from crisis to crisis.

But, obviously, Republicans like all that instability and they don’t want to fund the government unless it helps them get re-elected. To the point that they vote against popular laws, then take credit for them!

The point is — the United States is probably careening towards a massive political reset caused by a Second American Civil War. If we’re going to bomb ourselves into oblivion, we might as well start thinking about how we’re going to fund it.

Trump As ‘Shadow POTUS’ & His Historical Place As The Man Who Would Start A Second American Civil War



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a close, dear conservative relative, who, upon me making it clear that I felt Trump would run in 2024, engaged in debate nullification. “No, he won’t,” he said, giving no explanation other than just hope.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is not only running, but is acting as something of a “shadow president” among the faithful. He definitely seems to be the shadow Dear Leader of Texas, that’s for sure. He’s got a vice grip on the levers of power in Texas not seen since Huey Long in Louisiana during the Great Depression.

A lot — and I mean A LOT — could change between now and 2024, Trump will be about 80 then, after all, but at the moment it definitely seems as though Trump is running again. All signs point in that direction, at least. And, as I’ve said before — if Trump runs again we’re probably going to have a civil war.

A civil war that we would otherwise not have because DeSantis (or whomever) would have the basic intelligence necessary to allow the United States to drift peacefully into autocracy. Because, to be clear, autocracy is extremely popular in the United States right now. So much so, that we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.

As such, all you need is someone who isn’t a complete idiot as the Republican nominee in 2024 and the United States becomes an autocracy without a shot being fired. Gradually, the basics of any autocracy would be implemented and those with the means to get out, will. Over a generation, millions of Left leaning Americans could flee to nations like Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain and various European nations that would have them.

And that’s the best case scenario!

The worse case scenario is the most powerful nation in the world bombs itself into the stone age of its own volition because Trump is healthy enough to be the Republican nominee in 2024.

I can’t predict the future — I have no idea what may, or may not, happen. But all metrics point to the Fourth Turning happening in January 2025. We’re going to pick a path, the question is, which one?

The Era of Preparation


by Ender

Using my abstract strategic thinking abilities to wargame against the wargamer Steve K. Bannon (don’t forget that K!), makes me feel empowered. So, here goes.

Steven K. Bannon

Bannon’s wargame is this — he and his MAGA New Right acolytates are working largely in broad daylight (podcasts, etc) because they can. Yes, I’m sure they’re plotting in the dark somewhere, but, in general, they’re making it very clear what they’re up to and, fuck you, lib.

How do we strike back?

First, I would say take what human tumor Bannon is up to seriously. If he wants to play Lenin, then I will play Trotsky. I’m well aware how bad a historical analogy that is — Trotsky became so close to Lenin that he was named his successor in his will before Stalin did a number on that — but I’ve always felt an affinity to Trotsky.

Or, put another way, if I was force Quantum Leap style to jump into the body of a Russian Revolutionary, it would be Trotsky. I have an affinity for how, as I understand it, Trotsky had a number of opportunities to beat Stalin but kept choking at critical historical moments. Which sounds like something I would do.

Anyway, how do we take Steve “Lenin” Bannon seriously? Well, I would say, first we listen to him. We study him. We listen to his very badly hosted podcast and take him both seriously and literally. One thing I share with Bannon is I often get worked up about about abstract speculation that never turns out to be true.

With Bannon, it’s from a combination of wishful thinking and hitching his horse to malignant Chauncey Gardner, Donald Trump. With me, I create a narrative for this or that thing that just, ultimately, doesn’t exist. So, in a sense, that’s a shared known known weakness of the two of us.

Once we pay attention to Bannon and his fellow reactionary radical revolutionaries, we start to think existential. There will be no voting reform. It’s unlikely the filibuster will be eliminated or reformed, either. Looking forward, because Bannon is a sly and evil, we have to do triage. Trump is above the law. Even if we did somehow manage to neutralize him as an autocratic force, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats in the wings, waiting to do exactly what Bannon is trying to do with Trump — turn the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state of “blood and soil.”

Bannon’s goal is to pull this off peacefully. If he can just corrupt the election process institution itself enough, then everything the MAGA New Right will be seen as what happened in 2000 only, a quantum leap beyond. In other words, the very “media narrative” that earnest goomba talk about on Joe Rogan’s podcast will be used to their advantage.

The entire election process will be so corrupt that your CNN and MSNBC talking heads will just shrug and tell everyone to calm down — the “system worked” and things aren’t so bad, now are they? That will be their “media narrative,” of course, until the media itself is purged and, lulz, sucks to be you lib.

Another thing I would do, on an individual basis, is think existential. What are you good at? If there was a prolonged crisis — be it autocracy or civil war — what organic talents do you have that you could use to help support the cause of liberty? But for you to do that, there’s something else you would have to do first — decide what’s important to you in the real world.

What makes Bannon so dangerous is the so-called “Resistance” is so busy having a circle jerk on Twitter with its “booms” and “devastating” retorts that he’s busying effecting change in the real world, where it actually matters. He’s thinking existential in the real world, while at the moment, everyone who might oppose him there is too busy drinking wine while watching Maddow and growing their essential oils business.

Ugh.

The only way to fight back against Bannon at this point on an individual basis is to pull back and wait. Think existential and study him closely — listen to his podcast — and take him both seriously and literally. When he’s not ranting about how people like me are a joke, he and others like him and suggesting that I’m “forcing” him to radicalize and embrace political violence. Talk about snowflakes.

I know that sounds rather abstract. What you want is a VOX practical explainer that is simply, cogent and explains small things you can do between now and January 2025 that will ensure you and your loved ones are safe.

Sorry. I have no idea what to tell you in concrete terms. There still too many unknown unknowns for me to be able to do that. All I know is don’t rely upon “hope” at this point to fix anything.

The era of hope is over. The era of preparation has begun.

The Fourth Turning Of 2025 & The Radical Moderates Of The Second American Civil War



by Ender

The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.

Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.

In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.

And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.

The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.

But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.

I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.

One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.

I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.

What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.

All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”

Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.

I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?

The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.

If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.

But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.

It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.

Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.

But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.

Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.

Thinking The Unthinkable: A Creative Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since 9/11, a lot of people far smarter than me have wargamed every possible creative way the US might be attacked by international terrorists. But, at the moment, that seems rather quaint.

If we’re going to get attacked in some coordinated manner, we’re probably going to get attacked by a deranged group of MAGA New Right people. At the moment, on first glance, it seems as though if a small cadre of committed conspirators went after the US government with the aim of getting Trump back in office they just could not pull it off.

The chief issue is — the line of presidential succession is, at the moment, all Democrats. But, just today, something happened and I grew alarmed.

Because the Senate is split 50 / 50, if you were an evil cabal of coup plotters with enough organization, you actually could successfully stage a coup in the United States.

The moment you, God forbid, knock Vice President Harris out of the picture after Biden, she would no longer be there to break a tie and, the case could be made that Sen. Grassely would become president pro tempore of the Senate and, as such if you’ve successfully knocked out Speaker Pelosi, he would become president.

Then, citing his advanced age, he named Trump his veep and steps down.

Or, at the very least, if the attack happened very quickly the moment you had successfully knocked out Biden, Harris and Pelosi (how you could possibly effect this, I have no idea) the country would be thrown into a huge, lingering chaos because Republicans would say Grassley is president while Democrats would say Sen. Leahy was.

The issue would be so up in the air that that, in itself, could potentially start a civil war.

The above is all very speculative and dark. But it’s something to think about.

The Sumner Endgame: Thinking The Unthinkable In Congress


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, if you like my personal brand of “hysterical doom shit,” then I got my new favorite fear to talk to you about: a member of Congress pulling out a gun and shooting their peers.

Back to the future?

Now, obviously, there are two people who are the most obvious suspects for this future and hopefully forever abstract fear: Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.

Both of them have the means, motive and opportunity to stage a mass causality event on the House floor. Green already runs around getting into heated arguments with her peers as it is. It’s not too much to imagine her, at some point, taking it to the next level and using a gun to intimidate — or worse. But they are just the most conspicuous — there are probably a dozen MAGA New Right Representatives who could grow deranged enough to do it.

It makes you wonder what the reaction would be if something like that did happen. Before the January 6th Insurrection, I would have been able to give you a pat answer of the country would be outraged and for a moment we would all be united in grief.

Lulz!

Now, I think the bodies would still be warm on the House chamber floor when Bannon and others would begin to spin how the murders were “justified” because “liberals drove the person to it.”

Or, as the esteemed Jesse Kelly would say, “Welcome to the New Right!”

The two sides would inhabit their echo chambers with talking points and spin and there would even be a bi-partisan commission of why the event happened. The even would just be another data point towards are march to GQP autocratic managed democracy or some sort of civil war.

Do I think something so horrible might happen? That’s a tough one. The conditions are there for something like that to happen. But that doesn’t mean jack shit. The mood of the country is growing darker by the moment for various reasons, so anything is possible.

But, for the time being, this really is just “hysterical doom shit.” I think if it did happen it would probably be at some point after the GQP took flipped Congress. Or, maybe if the House was controlled by Democrats by a 1 or 2 seat margin. I know we’re just about there now, but the idea that a Congress person would murder their colleagues is so dark I want to give myself some “hope” that that won’t happen anytime soon.

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Wake Me Up When Congressional Democrats Have The Balls To Invoke ‘Inherent Contempt’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me indulge myself in some of my usual “hysterical doom shit.” Tonight, a lot of the usual Twitter liberal suspects are all excited that the January 6th Commission has subpoena a clutch of Trump associated who were involved in the January 6th Insurrection.

To me, this is no boom. It’s a lulz.

Steve Bannon, among those who are going to ignore Congress.

History has shown that all the people that Congress has subpoenaed will either ignore it or fight it in the courts. There is only one way they will show up — and even then they will invoke the 5th — and that’s if House Democrats used Congress’ “inherent contempt” powers.

The only way we would get to the “I plead the 5th point” would be if they got fined and stuck in the tiny Capitol brig for a few weeks until they broke. We’re not exactly dealing with people who give a shit about allowing the public find out the truth about their nefarious January 6th plans.

The reason why House Democrats won’t do what they should do, is they know the moment they break the modern seal on the use of inherent contempt, that’s the moment that House Republicans will use it when they inevitable begin to impeach Biden and Harris in January 2023.

Republicans are so radicalized on an institutional level, that they’re just biding their time until they have power again. Once they do — and they inevitable will get power again — that’s it. The end of the Republic. That’s hysterical doom shit, but the only reason why that might not be the case is at first things won’t seem to change much.

Because traditional “personal responsibility” Republicans don’t notice anything has changed, it could be years before they sit up and taken notice that, “Hey, this kind of sucks.”

But by that point, it will be too late — or we’ll have had a civil war, bombed ourselves into the stone age and there will be some sort of massive political “reset” where we get back to the usual non-existential ebb-and-flow of a traditional liberal democracy.

Anyway, the point is — we’re fucked. Get your affairs in the real world. Decide what’s important to you and how much you’re willing to suffer for what you believe in. Bannon isn’t going anywhere and in the end, either we peacefully slip into some form of a “Very American Autocracy” or we have a fucking civil war.

But good luck on getting anyone around Trump to talk unless you’re willing to use inherent contempt.