Month: March 2023

What Fuck Is Going On Between Trump & Jack Smith?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something curious is going on between Trump and Special Council Jack Smith. Now, let me be absolutely clear — I am prone to baseless, somewhat hysterical speculation. So take all of this with a grain of salt. In other words, I’m often, if not always, wrong.

But given what the legal battle going on at the moment in the courts is about — evidence surrounding Trump lying to his lawyers about giving all the documents over to the Feds, it does make one wonder if Something Big may be involved.

And that Something Big would be maybe Trump was recorded giving his lawyers motivation for why he took the documents in the first place. If there was some sort of absolute proof — straight from Trump’s mouth — that he took the documents in part because he saw some sort of monetary upside….oh boy.

That would meet the Constitution’s metric for treason.

That is pretty bonkers to speculate being possible, even for me. And that’s saying something. So, it’s probably something a lot more mundane than that. Something interesting, but not nearly as historic.

The only reason why I think such a thing might be within the realm of possibility is Trump is SO FUCKING STUPID that I could see him, in confidence to his lawyers, saying something like, “Yeah, I thought some of those documents might be worth something.” Or, “I took the documents because I thought Putin or Kim Jung Un might find them cool.”

He really is that stupid.

My Current Concern About Malignant Ding-Dong Trump Getting Booked

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is, you just never know. And that, in real terms, is his power. We’re all on edge because Trump could just as easily successfully incite ANOTHER January 6th-like event as much as he could, well, do nothing of any note.

So, my fear at the moment when it comes to the possibility of Trump being booked is should he be indicted tomorrow (Wednesday) that between then and whenever he should be arraigned next week he uses every possible opportunity to goad his followers to do something violent.

It could be anything from him simply refusing to leave Mar-a-Lago to some sort of crazy riot in New York City whenever he goes in to get booked. Anything is possible with someone as dumb and crazed as Trump.

Hopefully, I’m just overthinking things like usual.

Well, If Nothing Else, My Novel Is Getting REALLY Fucking Good

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I may have drunk myself to an early death — I still don’t know the results of some tests I got — but I am doing a first go-over of the second draft of my novel and it’s really beginning to coming unto its own.

So, while it could be that I drop dead before I can even query this novel and it never actually sees the light of day — I know I’ve come up with something that at least won’t embarrass me.

And that was, in real terms, part of the point of this endeavor from the beginning. My writing and storytelling has improved dramatically since I started this novel.

The whole thing is far more cohesive and character driven than it was begun. I’ve come up with a heroine who is strong enough that she might be compared favorably to Mare of Easttown, or maybe, in her own way a older, more mellow American iteration of the Lisbeth Salander trope.

Or something.

Won’t matter much, of course, if I’m dead.

The Illiberal Left Is Real & A Real Fucking Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I was dumb and waded into the Trans movement issue on Tik-Tok and now I have people doing heated video stiches to a post I felt was rather equatable. The Left’s Trans orthodox is so absolute, so inflexible that I really worry about our future.

I’m generally supportive of Trans rights and that isn’t really the issue.

What IS the issue is how the Left has such an absolute fixed orthodoxy on the issue that a lot of Traditionalists who are coming at the situation in good faith are being driven into the arms of fucking MAGA Nazi fascists because of the Left’s freak out.

This is a real possibility, if my conversations with my Traditionalists relatives are any indication. Our small-d democratic politics collapses if one side wants to destroy or “cancel” you if you don’t tow their orthodoxy. I hate orthodoxy of any sort and so the idea that even by trying to approach the Trans issue as a pluralist will get me in trouble is really fucking annoying.

Now, something I think a lot about is contrasting and comparing the Trans movement with the African American civil rights movement. I freely admit that some of the arguments that are used against Trans people have, in the past, been used against African Americans demanding more rights.

And yet.

There is the moral element. For your typical Christian conservative, the very idea of being gay is really loaded — a sin, even — so to take this to the next level where you struggle to answer the question of “What is a woman” is a bit much for them.

We can’t just destroy Christian Traditionalists for thinking this way. Even at the height of the Civil Rights Era, there was a certain amount of give and take on what was going on.

It serves no one in a functioning democracy if you are so absolute in your orthodoxy on a subject that people who disagree with you have a credible fear of being publicly shamed.

So, to be clear — I generally support Trans rights. I just think maybe Trans right advocates could be a LITTLE BIT more flexible in their ideology.

‘Out Lips Are Sealed’ — Tik-Tok’s Porn Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Nobody’s likes a narc, but I feel compelled to at least point out that Tik-Tok has a unique porn problem. While I’m sex-postiive and, in general, find porn quite enjoyable, there is a time and a place for it and I keep getting bombarded with a very specific type of porn on Tik-Tok.

Here’s the setup: a young woman wearing a sheer dress bounces around for a moment and that, ostensibly, is it.

You might not catch at first what’s going on, but after you see the same situation repeatedly in different videos, it begins to dawn on you that something is up.

And it is — the young woman’s nether regions are….engorged…enough that they’re clearly visible through the sheerness of the dress.

Oh boy.

It’s a cute way to be salacious on the DL in a, “Who me?” sort of way. I don’t really have a problem with it — other than how many times I see this ploy on my FYP these days. It’s beginning to grow tiresome.

Ok, we get it.

Anyway.

The Reasons Why America May Have A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really, really, REALLY don’t want a civil war. And, yet, I need to make my abstract fears concrete, so I keep writing about it. Here are what I feel are some of the basic reasons why the most powerful democracy in human history could very well collapse into civil war / revolution.

Vibes
While this is obviously the most nebulous of the issues facing America, it’s very potent in the minds of a lot of people who don’t feel like constructing any sort of overarching reason for why they’re unhappy. All a lot of people know is they don’t like what’s going in the country and some of them — mosty Traditionalists — feel “oppressed” because “woke” Gen Z people won’t let them mutter the “N-Word” under their breath.

Religion
A lot of these issues overlap or have a symbiotic relationship to each other. For a lot white Christian conservatives, being gay is, by definition, a sin. Hence the Gay Panic that America is going through at the moment. So, while growing number of young people see being gay as nothing short of aspirational, for your typical white Christian, it’s just another marker on the highway to hell. So, while it’s not really an economic reason for a civil war, it doesn’t exactly help the situation.

Abortion
This is an economic issue that is probably the most corrosive. The reason is, abortion has always been a legal firebreak for the real issue — birth control itself. So, as the two sides begin to recede from each other and radicalize along the way, the very idea that a woman would have bodily autonomy becomes controversial. Red States crave those sweet, sweet white babies to the point that they would rather put millions of women under the state’s jackboot than risk allowing the browning of the country to continue unabated.

Income Disparity
This sort of an abstract, but it is very destabilizing. Especially when it comes to basic things like education. The wealthy can afford better health care and education and, as such, their entire perception of what it means to be an American is different than someone who has just a high school education.

Regional Differences
I don’t think people really appreciate that if the country collapses, the very size of the United States on a geographic basis will begin to play a part in things. One thing I just can’t game out is how likely it would be that, in the end, the final battle royal would be decided by regional alliances determined to own the USA “brand.”

Guns
This is a real cultural difference between many Blues and Reds. There is some overlap, but, in general, Blues want more gun control than Reds. And if you combine guns with all the other problems facing the country, it only throws fuel on the flames of division.

“The Woke Cancel Culture Mob”
I add this one because there are elements of the center-Left who seem determined to alienate Traditionalists to the point that they feel forced to embrace fascism. Not great, Bob.

MAGA Republicans Are Radicalizing

by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

I continue to read up on the rise of the Nazis and the more I read, the more alarmed I become about America’s future. All the current macro trends suggest a real risk of catastrophe in late 2024, early 2025 in the context of the 2024 presidential election.

But for the grace of Jeebas America would have problem come crashing down in January 2021. The January 6th insurrection came EXTREMELY CLOSE to working and, ironically enough, it was idiot Von Papen wannabe Mike Pence who bought us four years.

As I keep saying, America at the moment is an autocracy without an autocrat. Political scientists call America an “anocracy” and I totally believe it. The Republican Party is a fascist party hidden only from view because of the nature of our electoral system. If we were a parliamentary system, it would be clear that instead two parties there was actually the fascist Republican Party and a collection of pro-democratic parties that were aligned under a Democratic Front.

What is so unsettling to me is a back-of -the envelope estimate of how bad things could get when the fucking Nazi MAGA Republicans gain power again is startling. If you factor in basic elements like race, the size of the American population and how regional differences — man, are we fucked.

As I’ve suggested before, the historical event we need to think more about is the French Revolution. If the United States buckles, that’s the only event I can think of that would be equal to it. The centrifugal forces tearing the country apart as so powerful that if we go the civil war route instead of simply shrugging and turning into a full-blown autocracy…holy shit.

I would suggest that if you factor in the WW3 that would happen because of a Second American Civil War that roughly 1 billion people could die directly and indirectly because of the “Fourth Turning” that may start in late 2024, early 2025 when the United States goes tits up because either Blues leave the Union or Reds leave the Union. (It could go either way at this point.)

But, hopefully, I suppose, we may simply peacefully and without much struggle become an America First inward-looking autocracy. The United States will leave NATO and align ourselves, instead, with nations like Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

Good times!

I hope my ICE concentration camp has Wifi.

I Could Totally See House Republicans Arresting Trump’s Prosecutor Using ‘Inherent Contempt’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is technically possible for Congress to enforce a subpoena using its “inherent contempt” powers. It hasn’t been used in about a hundred years, but they can do it.

And, given how rabid House Republicans are at the moment, it definitely seems as though they’re prepared to arrest the NYC prosecutor in Trump’s case using inherent contempt just to prove a point. House Republicans don’t care about jackshit but protecting the Dear Leader, precedent be damned.

This nightmare scenario’s probability is pretty low, but given how tight Jim Jordan is with ding-dong Trump, anything is possible.

I definitely feels like Republicans continue to radicalize to the point that once the eventually, inevitably gain presidential power again we will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Either Blues bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazism, or we don’t. I don’t want a civil war — I hate violence of any sort — but on a practical basis we have to stop deluding ourselves into thinking civil war is entirely off the table.

Of course, if somehow Trump loses the Republican nomination, it could be Reds who bolt the Union because Trump will go to the Patriot Party and rant about how his election was “stolen” until Red States begin to leave the Union.

Or not. I can’t predict the future. But be aware of what might happen.

The Producers of ‘Daisy Jones & The Six’ May Have Created A Monster

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really like the Amazon Prime TV show “Daisy Jones & The Six,” and I like the music made by the fictional band even more. I’m not alone — apparently the songs from their fake album are doing quite well on the charts at the moment.

“Daisy Jones”

If the band actually did go on tour, it would not be the first time that a fake band did real gigs — The Monkeys being a prime example of this tradition in rock n roll. But from what I can tell, I have a feeling the actors involved in the show aren’t exactly thrilled to go on tour, despite their music’s success.

This is pure speculation on my part, but I think they might be a little nervous that they’ve created a monster and their collective acting careers might be consumed by having to sate the public’s demand to see their fictional selves on stage.

Or something. Who knows.

Pondering Trump’s Potential Booking In New York City

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is in something of a downlow crisis at the moment. At some point between now and as late as Thursday it’s possible that for the first time in American history a former POTUS will be criminally charged. (There was that one time President Grant got a ticket for speeding on his horse, but, lulz, let’s not count that.)

Anyway, allegedly, the NYPD has been to brace for impact starting tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. Is that a tell? It could mean anything. And, really, one concern I have is that A LOT could happen between now and Thursday. In my experience, once you’re in a crisis, all sorts of crazy shit seems to happen at the same moment.

It is going to be interesting to see how dramatic all of this will be. At the moment, I believe it’s going to be historic, but rather mundane. But anything having to do with Trump has a higher-than-normal level of uncertainty to it. Anything could happen because of that malignant ding-dong.

Everything from Trump inciting some sort of violence to him just giving a dumb, rambling speech is possible. Though, there are two datapoints to take note of. One is, he’s going to get DNA taken, which would help with the various sexual assault claims he’s fighting AND there will be mugshots.

Those mugshots will be burned into the mind of every American the instant they are available. They will be on everything from t-shirts to toilet paper by the end of the week, if not sooner.

Anyway. The next few days are going to be memorable, one way or another.