Month: June 2023

Triumph Of The Tribunes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If we really are heading towards some sort of “Her”-like future, then people who can ask Her-like digital assistants will be the people with the most important jobs. And the people who can do that?

Usually, in today’s world, they’re journalists.

As such, there may come a point in the future where the skill set usually associated with journalists will be the most valuable in the marketplace. Remember, of course, that the path to such an idyllic future for today’s journalists won’t be a straight line.

Pretty much all knowledge economy jobs could become moot before it happens. It could be that not until the entirety of human civilization is reorganized will any such thing happen. There could “Tribunes” who are the people who talk to our new AGI overlords on a daily basis.

Something. Something like that.

Everyone else will be living off of UBI. And there might be a civil war / revolution in the US between now and this future (and a WW3.)

So, all the bitter journalists I know will still have every reason to be bitter for years — decades? — to come. But I do think that all these new jobs I’m being promised because of AI (AGI) may be a real revolution in how we view work. It will be people who can asks a good question who will have a job.

That’s it.

That will be the only job in existence — being able to ask a good question.

Funeral Movie Death Match

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I watched “This Is Where I Leave You” and all I could think was, “Man, this movie has really bad background music compared to The Big Chill.” The movie itself was pretty good. I didn’t roll my eyes too much. I did skip through some parts, but that says more about me than the movie.

But I will note — spoilers — that it would have been more interesting if the wife had slept with the “good brother” and they were forced to keep it a secret. This prospect happened in the third act and THAT would be have taken things to the nexxt level.

But, whatever. I’m just pleased I managed to get through a movie — any money. I’m so spoiled when it comes to storytelly that just the act of finishing a movie is a big deal for me. I usually get upset and don’t finish a story if it doesn’t meet my own very — very strict — requirements.

Class: America’s Dirty Little Secret

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a few long-term friends who are in a different class than me and it’s…amusing? Class is a lot more abstract and intangible than race because if I blew up with my DJ money, I probably would be more accepted if I was a suddenly wealthy black dude than I would be if I was a suddenly wealthy white dude from a blue collar background.

I just can’t help the past. I just can’t help my background.

No amount of money will change that I went to a public university rather than some elite private college. Fuck that and fuck you if that matters to you. But it definitely matters to the type of people I would want to hang out with if I blew up with my (novel) money and wanted to remake myself in the guise of, say, Thom Wolfe.

I think I’m stumbling into something that has been written about at great length, most specifically in fiction in The Great Gatsby.

The issue is — generally, everything sucks.

Once you reach a certain age, if you get what you want, you don’t get what you want because of age and background. Lulz. Add to this that I’m bonkers and like to drink a lot and, well, even if I get the fame and success that I believe I deserve….the context won’t be want I want it to be.

And never will be.

‘Just Tell A Good Story’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a closing window of opportunity, I fear, before all entertainment is totally out of the hands of humans and is, rather AI generated. So, I really need to put up or shut up about this novel.

I’ve been working on it for years and if I don’t wrap this baby up by July 4th, I’m afraid I will be at the very same place a year or two from now.

Anyway, this novel is meant to be an Old Brown Shoe for people who enjoyed the original Millennium Series written by Stieg Larsson. He used multiple POVs, so, lulz, I wanted to too, not realizing how problematic that is.

It’s been a real struggle to figure out how to switch from one POV to the other in a way that doesn’t confuse readers. I THINK I may have figured out something, but, who knows. I suppose I’ll know one way or another once the Beta Reader process really gets going.

We Have To Take The Possibility Of A Second American Revolution Seriously — And It Will Come From Blues

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has taken me a long, long time to figure this subtle difference out, but I finally have — it makes no sense for Blues to secede from the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump win re-election.

What DOES make a lot of sense is a Second American Revolution.

As such, the war aims would not be secession, but the overthrow of a tyrannical “Magadonia” regime. Blue States wouldn’t want to start their own, new nation, but bring freedom and prosperity back to a America under the yoke of tyranny.

I don’t know how much of that is me making myself feel better — I mean, I don’t want to start a Blue nation, I want to live in a free and united America — and how much of that is actually something that might happen.

Anyway. This is a distinction between Red war aims and Blue war aims that make me feel so, so, much better. I’m not much for secession, but I am willing to, in an abstract way, entertain revolution. But, even then, it’s an abstraction. I hate violence of any sort.

I would much rather we just muddle through and transition into some sort of “light touch” autocracy. I really do hate violence that much.

If I Ever Blow Up With My DJ (Novel) Money, I May Have To Do A Drinking Tour Of Latin America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Much of any success I had in South Korea while I was there came from how entertaining I was to Koreans when I got drunk. They were impressed with how much I could drink. I find myself wanting to return to South Korea for a huge bender, but I’m just too fucking broke to do such a thing anytime soon.

But I also find myself thinking about how there have been a few times when I went to an “authentic” Mexican restaurant and they were willing to embrace my high levels of drinking with open arms.

As such, I think if I ever fall into some money, I may take a drinking tour of Latin America. Start off in Mexico, then maybe go to Columbia, then find myself in Chile then Argentina then Brazil before coming home.

I think — if I could avoid being murdered in a gun battle — a lot of fun would be had by all. There seem to be the Latin American equivalent of Korean “ahjumas” who would be willing to help facilitate any such bender.

Anyway. That is probably years — if ever — from happening.

The Problem With The Movie ‘She Said’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really liked the #MeToo books She Said and Catch And Kill. They were insightful and interesting. But I find myself watching the movie adaptation of the former book and it comes across as a humorless Very Serious Film.

I’m just starting it, but I can see what it didn’t do very well in the box office, especially given how divided America is. The movie doesn’t seem to have much heart. It takes its subject matter So Seriously that it can come across as sort of plodding.

But I’ve just started. Maybe it will get better.

Butlerian Jihad: Is It Inevitable That MAGA Will Evolve Into an Neo-Luddite Movement?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump isn’t going to live forever, so the case could be made that we’re at the very beginning of a broader, longer-term revolution in American political life. Given my own personal experiences using LLMs to work on my novel, I’m growing kind of shocked at how good they are.

There are many, many jobs — both white collar and blue collar — that are going to grow moot and quaint in the near, near future.

As such, it is easy to imagine a new version of MAGA at some point in the near future that fuses the labor needs of the far Left and far Right in such a way that the banning of LLM (and AI in general) becomes something they are willing to burn the country down for.

Trump is just so, so very stupid that I doubt he is smart enough to process in the abstract why AI needs to be banned or regulated. That is, of course, until some the “woke” nature of LLMs is distilled down to a talking point that idiot Trump can understand well enough to demagogue.

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAGA and AI. I think whatever happens needs some time to marinate a little bit. The MAGA objections to AI are still to abstract for dingus Trump to process. It could be that if we have some sort of “perfect storm” in late 2024, early 2025 that that will be when Trump — or someone like him — starts to demand a Butlerian Jihad.

Suits, Software and Schmucks: The Path to Hollywood’s ‘Her’ Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Hollywood is fucking doomed. While we may have to go through a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) between now and then, it definitely seems as though within 10 years even Hollywood suits will be replaced by a Her-like AI.

Let me say that again in a different way — it could be that through a combination of Her and Simone all recorded entertainment will be generated by AI. People will develop parasocial relationships not with Tay-Tay or a this or that Hollywood heartthrob — but with a simulation generated on-the-fly by their very own Her-type digital assistant.

The path to this (dystopian?) future won’t be a straight line, but that’s definitely where macrotrends seems to be taking us in the medium-to-long term. Hollywood is so, so very fucked.

Two things to keep in mind.

One, the transitional phase of all of this will be a new Feudal system for Hollywood where there will be three types of people — suits, software and schmucks. Writers, directors and actors will be seen as quaint and moot soon enough — unless they join together and demand specific, hard-fast carveouts for those jobs.

I just don’t see that happening because things are moving too fast.

The other issue to think about is — Broadway may see a real resurgence. It could be that the revolution may not be televised — because it will be performed live on the stage. People who want “real” actors will turn to having parasocial relationships with Broadway and Westend, (and local theatre) stars rather than some computer-generated bullshit.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s definitely something to think about, something to worry about. The future may see a very, very dramatic change in how we interact with entertainment.

‘Protect Trans Kids’ Is The Clit Of The Culture Wars

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want to see how fucked up American politics are, look no further than the issue of “protect trans kids.” Because of all the disinformation flying around this issue — from both sides — I’ve given some serious thought to what I think about the issue.

The key take away from this particular clusterfuck is….there really aren’t that many “trans kids” to protect. It’s not like there are thousands of children who are demanding they take the medical steps necessary to transition. There are a lot of sexually confused kids — like there have always been since the dawn of time — who don’t know what they are or what they want and they’re being used as pawns on “both sides” to make political points.

Because the Left makes a big deal about “protect trans kids,” the Right flips out that there are “trans kids” that need to be “protected” in the first place.

The whole thing is very very fucked up because, from my experience, if you don’t cling to the established center-Left narrative about “protect trans kids” even though there really aren’t that many trans kids to protect….you are in for shit ton of trouble. From both sides! Either the Left things you’re Satan, or the Right demands you becoming just as hysterical as they are about this issue — and other culture war issues — for them to accept you.

Ugh. Fuck all that.

I totally validate the alarm and anger that a lot of Trans Rights advocates have stimming from violence and all that. My only concern is maybe be a little less crazy when it comes to demanding everyone hone to the extremist dictates of the “protect trans kids” narrative.