Month: July 2023

A New Endgame For The First Novel: Fall 2024 Before I Query

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve decided to start working on the Third Draft of my first novel sometime around Sept 1st. Because of the time necessary to write the next draft and the amount of time necessary to save up to pay a manuscript consultant, it could be fall 2024 before I really begin to query.

Of course, the issue is that late 2024, early 2025 could be a complete and total clusterfuck on both a technological and political basis. There is something poetic that I would finally be at a point where I can query just as the entire world may be about to collapse into either autocracy or civil war / revolution.

In a weird way, if we just turn into an autocracy there is a far better chance that this series will be a lot more successful because the six novels are, in general, using subtext, one long screed against extreeming in general and MAGA specifically. So if we do become some sort of illiberal democracy like Russia that it will be a lot more likely that this six novel series will be bought and ultimately be a popular success.

But at the moment, I’m very much being delusional. Getting a novel traditionally published is like winning the fucking creative lottery. I’m not getting any younger, of course, but when it comes to querying I definitely want to measure twice, cut once.

That’s why I’m willing to give myself a little extra time to the point whereby I will be querying about a year from now.

2024: A Perfect Storm

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems like everything is going to come to a head in 2024. Developments in AI will combine with the put up or shut up political moment of late 2024 – early 2025 and the fate of the entire world — of all of humanity — could be decided starting in 2024.

I say this because if the US collapses — or even simply peacefully transitions into an America First autocracy — everything is going to be upended. Talk about a New World Order! If the US leaves NATO and aligns itself with other autocratic states like Russia, Hungary and Turkey, then, that, unto itself could prompt WW3 to happen — killing about 1 billion people one way or another.

If America collapses into the chaos of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) the same thing will happen — a billion people will die (at least.) If all of this happens, then the issue of AI will be punted down the road until America figures out of it’s going to become Trumplandia or if we’re going to establish the Third American Republic.

At the moment, it really could go either way. It really the fuck could. No fate but what we make and all that.

But if a Third American Republic is established, THEN the issues of global climate change and AI could be addressed collectively by humans as a species. That, at least, would be the idea endgame.

And, yet, humans are dumb and it could be that not even a New World Order after WW3 could get us to get our act together enough to address, collectively some Big Issues that face Humans.

But, I guess, we’ll see, huh?

2023: The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This year, 2023, is really beginning to have a “quiet before the storm” vibe to it. The signs are everywhere that our political system is collapsing before our very eyes to the point that I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the passions of the 2024 election.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. We’re either going to turn into an autocracy when Trump wins or he wins and we have a “Resistance Revolution” in response. Or he loses and he demands a civil war. There just doesn’t seem to be any “Third Way” that allow us to punt some severe, macro problems down the road another four years.

I saw someone today that really alarmed me — he definitely looked like someone who would murder me in cold blood in late 2024, early 2025 if the country collapses into anarchy because there’s either a civil war going on because Trump has lost or a Resistance Revolution going on because he’s won and Blues have managed to stop sucking their own cocks long enough to actually fight back. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

And, yet, I said the same sort of shit about 2020 and….nothing happened other than the January 6th Insurrection. And, I’m always, always wrong. So…maybe somehow, someway we will manage to eek through 2024 without either turning into an autocracy or having a revolution / civil war? Maybe?

It will definitely be interesting to see one way or another.

I May Participate In The ‘Barbenheimer’ Gimmick On Opening Day

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I have the means, motive and opportunity to do the Barbenheimer double-feature gimmick. I am very, very poor at the moment, but it would be fun-interesting to do something so zeitgeisty.

It will, of course, be interesting to see if I can actually watch both movies all the way through. I am notorious for leaving movies soon after they start.

Anyway. It’s intriguing, if nothing else.

A.I. Is Probably Going To ‘Moneyball’ Traditional Hollywood Within 18 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the advancements in MidJourney, I just don’t see how human Hollywood escapes being “Moneyballed” by A.I. and the suits within about 18 months. That’s why I think — barring something I can’t predict — the Hollywood strikes currently happening are going to linger far, far longer than any of us are prepared to game out.

All the suits have to do is just sit things out for about 18 months and they endup on top with all of human Hollywood — other than them — being moot. Hollywood will be transformed into suits and programmers.

And that will be just the beginning. Soon enough, you’ll flop down in front of your TV and it will scan your face to produce a TV show or a movie specifically designed for your mood at that particular moment. There will be no mass media at all. No shared reality. No water cooler discussion of the latest binge worthy TV show.

We’ll all have “personal media” tailored to our specific desires at a specific moment. And, if it’s a “Her” like future, it may all be something of a black box. We humans will have no clue as to how it all works.

I’m all for the union’s of Hollywood fighting The Man, but I fear that, in the end, the transformation will be too sudden, too swift for them to do anything about it in real terms.

The humans who actually produce movies in Hollywood at the moment are fucked. And I say this as someone who is trying to write a novel. It could be that soon enough, even novels are all written by A.I.

I dunno. It’s all going to be interesting to see how things unfold.

Character Development In The Third Draft

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m really itching to start working on the third draft, and yet, I also realize that this pause I’m allotting myself can be used to improve it significantly. I’m actually READING for once. My goal is to read some very important books that could really take a number of elements of the novel to the next level.

It’s been a real struggle, however, to get myself to this point. I just either want to write or daydream. I kind of fell out of the reading habit a number of years ago but now I’m forcing myself to read some books for the purposes of research.

I have come up with a specific detail for my heroine’s character that I feel will really take her to the next level. It’s the type of “color” that readers — and marketers of the book — could really latch on to. But I have to kind of put myself in the proper mindset to know enough about the subject I’m thinking of to actually pull it off.

One issue I’m having is I’m just, by nature, too silly. I have to center myself and take things a lot more seriously if I’m going to successfully write about the subject at hand. It at times like these that it really hits home how important it is to do research when it comes to writing any novel worth it snuff.

Anyway. I am very eager to start writing again. I’m also eager to see what beta readers have to say about the second draft. But I’m pretty much at the point where the “it sucks” response on their part is already baked into the cake. I know –I just know — that I can make the third draft professional enough that I can show it to a manuscript consultant.

Goals For The Third Draft

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My goal for the third draft of this novel is to make it good enough that I can hand it over to either a professional beta reader and / or a manuscript consultant so I can turn around and then begin to query the novel. Given money and time involved, I figure it’s probably going to be late 2024 before I really get into querying.

Which, of course, is just about when all hell is going to break loose and either Trump turns us into an autocracy or we have a revolution / civil war. I find something poetic about that. If we DON’T have a civil war / revolution — which I find the most likely at this point, then that definitely increases the chances that I will sell this novel given that the entire six novel project is one long screed against MAGA and extremism.

I really fucking hate MAGA.

Anyway. The goals of the third draft are to improve world building and character. I want people who don’t know anything about small towns to “get” the setting in a way they probably won’t with the second draft. I also am going to try to really flesh out characters in a way that makes them more cohesive and interesting.

I have a few ideas for my heroine that I hope will really make her a lot more memorable. But now that I have some sense of the totality of the story — and the overarching arch of the six novels — there are some things I hope to improve about some of the smaller characters as well.

Overall, I have a lot of work ahead of me — but it’s a lot of fun.

If Trump Doesn’t Win In 2024, He’s Going To Start A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that Republicans are wilfully oblivious about is not only is Trump going to be the nominee, but if he does lose in 2024, he’s going to single-handedly start a civil war. And if he wins, he may cause a Blue revolt that will be marketed as a “Resistance Revolution.”

The point is — 2024 is it. It’s the year a lot of macro trends come a head, just as the pseudo-science book The Fourth Turning predicts. And, at the moment, it seems like Trump is going win in 2024 — or start a civil war if he doesn’t. Trump is an avatar for a LOT of macro problems in American politics and, as such, we can’t just keep punting these problems down the road.

The Second American Republic, the one founded by Lincoln upon his death, is just about to end and either we turn into an American Autocracy or we have some sort of rebirth into a Third American Republic. At the moment, it could go either way.

My bet is this is it, Trump wins and he and his eventual successor turn us into something akin to Russia, Hungary or Turkey. There might be a WW3 along the way as we transition into an autocracy as well.

But I do think that if Trump loses — as all these well meaning Republicans seem to think in private — we’re going to have a civil war, probably with Texas being the first state to leave the Union. And, add into the equation how fucking old Biden is and…oh boy.

Anyway. Get out of the country while you can, if you have the means.

Yet More Literary Existential Angst

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got some blood work back today and it indicated that I have high cholesterol — a leading cause of heart attack and stroke. Which, of course, makes me think of how Stieg Larsson died just as he learned he had gotten a book deal. I’m the same age he was when he died of a heart attack and I still have about a year left before I will start querying.

What gets me is that even if I stick the landing with this novel that because of post-production, I could be 55 or 56 before I’m a published author. That really gives me pause for thought when I realize I may drop dead at any moment from a heart attack or stroke.

And, what’s more, there is the issue of what the fuck is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025 just about the time I’m going to start querying my first novel aggressively. It could be that the either we’re slipping into autocracy or we are about to have a civil war or revolution just as I’m doing that.

I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war or revolution. I think Trump is going to win and that will be that. He will use Schedule F to turn us into an autocracy and I’ll have to start to seriously think about how I’m going to escape an ICE agent putting a bullet in the back of my head.

And, YET, given that it was my anger over Trump that caused me to start working on this six novel project in the first place, the case could be made that if some agent learns the nature and overarching subtext of these six novels that they might be more interested in buying the first novel.

The subtext of these six novels is I fucking hate MAGA with a white hot rage to the point that I’m willing to write six novels that let me rant about how much I hate political extremism.

Anyway, we’re totally fucked. I just don’t see any “third way” like what happened in 2020. Something really unexpected will have to happen pretty quick. Trumpism has gone septic and this is it — America is going to be an autocracy starting in 2025.

Will There Even Be A 50th Season of SNL?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I have no idea if there the strikes that currently are happening in Hollywood will still be going on this fall. But we have to begin to take the possibility that there won’t be a 50th season of Saturday Day Night Live seriously.

At the moment, there is a lot of chatter that the strikes will be wrapped up by around September when it really starts to hurt the industry in practical ways. And, yet, the case could also be made that lulz, because of AI, these strikes are going to linger for months and months AND MONTHS because suits are simply waiting for AI to catch up so the strikes are all moot.

I would estimate that we’re 18 months away from pretty good all-AI generated movies being practical. As such, that’s about how long I could see all these strikes taking before they’re wrapped up because there’s pretty much no human involvement in recorded entertainment at all.

But back to SNL.

I suppose SNL could get a specific exception? Maybe? Or maybe they might be able to get a specific carveout JUST for their 50th anniversary special? I suppose that’s possible. There is a darker possibility — the strikes, if they linger — might be used as an excuse to END SNL once and for all.

Lorne Michaels has suggested that he may retire after the 50th season and if there is obviously NOT GOING TO BE A 50TH SEASON then, lulz, he may just pack things in and the show goes out not with a bang, but with a whimper.