by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Any understanding of what Tyrant Trump is chomping at the bit to do should he win re-election gives every indication that he doesn’t want to be an autocrat — he wants to be a military dictator.
There is a big difference between being an autocrat and being a military dictator. An autocrat — usually in the beginning at least — is willing to play by the rules of civil society. That has been a go-to play for every autocrat since Augustus Caesar.
And that’s what I’ve always assumed Trump would do. I thought he would use the basic elements of being a strong man as seen in Russia, Hungary and Turkey. But from what I can tell from his obsession with the Insurrection Act, Trump really does want to go full tyrant by being a military dictator.
His decision to go full tyrant maybe be out of a combination of how stupid he is and the simple fact that he doesn’t have a MAGA SA to knock heads. He thinks invoking the Insurrection Act is like fascist magic pixie dust that will solve all of his problems, being too stupid to realize if instead of “four dead in Ohio” we have “10,000 dead in LA” that the American populace could, collectively freak the fuck out.
EVEN IF Trump had some sort of an organized paramilitary arm of MAGA, the US of 2025 is not the same as Germany 1933. The United States is huge, decentralized, diverse and has a long, long tradition of a free society. You would have to have at least 500,000 MAGA SA members who could swoop into restive Blue States and knock heads.
And simply using the U.S. Military — an democratic institution itself — to get what you want just isn’t going to cut it. At least, I’d like to think so. I suppose I’m giving the U.S. Military too much credit by thinking that if there was some sort of collective action like a General Strike or a Women’s Strike that that might be enough to cause it to stand down — or even join any sort of movement to depose Tyrant Trump.
But there are many, many known unknowns. We’re still a year away from all of this and there is always a pretty good chance that Trump will not win, fade into political oblivion and everything will work itself out.
Potential Scenarios for late 2024, early 2025:
- Trump Loses — gives up
It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years. - Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war. - Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning. - Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason. - Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up. - The 1872 Election Endgame
Look it up. It’s bad.
