Sometimes, on Tik-Tok, you run across something so dumb that you just have to chuckle. Take, for instance, this Tik-Tok I was pushed today by a woman who with great authority said that Google was using its Evil AI Technology to scan all our emails.
I find this hilarious because Google has been scanning all our emails, in some way, since its advent. Maybe the AI being used has grown more advanced, but the principle is the same.
Ugh.
And, of course, this way too late freak out is going to be even bigger when Google implements its new AI-first Gmail. Then people, who have not been paying attention, are going to freak the fuck out.
It used to be, vibe shifts happened all the time. As such, the world of the early 1980s was very, very different than that of the late 1980s. And then, for some reason, we got stuck in 1995 for thirty years.
Now, I’m not saying people will start to wear different clothes (at last), but mentally, I do think something has shifted. People are starting to look at the world in a slightly different way.
And, I think, that is going to pop up rather abruptly and suddenly when an unexpected movie, TV show or song becomes really popular for what seems like no apparent reason. I would maybe suggest the gay-hocky player TV show Heated Rivalry as an example of what I’m talking about.
While I do think that is an indication of a vibe shift, I thinking more something even more unexpected. Though, as an aside, I will suggest that the renewed popularity of Mad Men AGAIN is another sign of a vibe shift.
I think if a little movie with an unexpected plotline became really popular out of the blue in the next few months that that would be a prime suggestion that we really have had a vibe shift. If I really wanted to be egotistical, I might suggest that my scifi dramedy novel I’m working on might, just might be a part of the vibe shift.
Ha!
Or maybe it will be a piece of technology that takes off in an unexpected way. Maybe the vibe shift will be when Google Gemini totally takes over from ChatGPT as the go-to LLM for the consumer. That would definitely be a very vibe-shift type of thing to happen.
Or, maybe, it will be the OpenAI “pen?” that is being speculated about. Or, maybe, this could be the year that XR really takes off in an unexpected way. Or, if you really wanted to get weird, you might even suggest that some sort of AGI / ASI takes off at some point this year and changes e v e r y t h i n g.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens next.
I’ve finally, yet again, wrapped up the first act of the scifi dramedy novel I’ve been working on. Now, I’m going to stare out into space for a little while before I throw myself into the second act again.
The key thing — as always — is to make sure that my hero isn’t passive. I’ve had a real problem with my protagonist being reactive to the point that the AIs I’ve been using to develop the novel keep pointing it out. It’s all very frustrating.
Another issue is I really, really need to avoid leaning into using AI to actually write the scenes. I want as much as possible of this novel’s text to be written by my hand, even if it means the novel isn’t as good as it might otherwise be.
All this praise I’ve been getting from what little pieces of the novel I’ve given people to read is making me feel a little insecure — ok, maybe a lot insecure. It’s starting to eat away at me that maybe my writing…just sucks? And the only way for it to be good enough to get a literary agent is…to use AI to sharpen it to publishing quality?
Here’s what I think is happening after the tragic murder of Renee Good at the hands of a ICE thug in Minnesota. Trump really wanted to get ahead of things, so the moment he learned what happened, he put out the word as to what the orthodoxy on the subject would be.
The rest took care of itself.
Trump wants to divide us so he can run roughshod over civil society and he’s doing a great job at the moment of just that. So much so, that I’m beginning to doubt that anyone will do anything of note if Trump really fucks with the 2026 midterms.
Sure, people like me will get upset, but, in general the average person, especially “Good Americans” will just bothsides everything or do whataboutism and Trump will effectively cement us as a zomibe democracy — a managed democracy like they have in Hungary.
As such, I don’t see us having a civil war or revolution this year. We’re just going to slide further and further into autocracy. To the point that when Trump runs for an illegal third term in 2028 it will be a lulz for most people, but not me.
I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.
I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.
The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.
But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.
Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.
But all of that is very, very speculative.
I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.
It definitely seems as though the long, long, long predicted vibe shift has happened. We’re in a new era, it seems. Something shifted in our collective consciousness between Christmas and January.
To the point that just in the first few days of 2026, all hell broke loose both domestically and abroad.
Anyway, who knows what all this means.
I do think that 2026 is going to be a pretty monumental year. Usually odd-numbered years are shit, but I think this year is going to be very turbulent and shocking in ways none of us can predict.
I have a really cool social media platform rolling around in my mind that if I had the gumption I would at least try to “vibe code” into existence. Just to see if I could pull it off.
The platform, which I have thought through maybe a little bit too much, would use the UX / UI of the old Usenet system as a stepping off point, as inspiration. I think it would be a lot better than Facebook or Twitter and would not just be warmed over Reddit.
It would definitely be it’s own thing.
It’s a really interesting idea and by the time I can just tell my Knowledge Navigator to whip it up for me, no one will be interested traditional social media. So, I’m faced with something of a paradox.
Oh well. It was really entertaining to think about for a few years.
Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.
For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.
Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.
But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.
If macro, megatrends continue the path they’re on now — Hollywood is totally cooked. To the point that within 10 years, young would-be starlets will go not to Los Angeles and Hollywood, but, instead to New York City and the lights of Broadway.
“Hollywood” as we know it, will be replaced with high quality AI generate media that is indistinguishable from what humans produce today. My go-to scenario is you will be able to come home from work (if those still exist for humans), tell your Knowledge Navigator what you want to see and it will whip up, on the fly, a new Star Wars movie with you as the hero and everything will be only vaguely connected to the broader Star Wars universe.
I’m not being all that original at this point to pontificate on such things, but I do think the only way Hollywood as we current know it exists in 10 to 20 years is specific legal carveouts for humans. That’s it, without carveouts, Hollywood as we know is a sinking ship.
But we live in an era — at the moment — when weak-willed plutocrats run the show in an autocratic social environment, so I have my doubts that even Hollywood could convince, say, Elon Musk, that it is worth saving.
I’ve written about this before, but I’ll do it again. The next few years will be something of a fork in the road for the media industry. Either we have reached something of a LLM (AI) plateau or we haven’t and the Singularity will happen by no later than, say, 2033.
Right now, I just don’t know which path we will go.
It really could go either way.
It could be that we’ve reached a plateau with LLMs and that’s that. This will give tech giants the ability to catch up to the point that instead of there being any sort of human-centric Web, it will all just be one big API call. Humans will interact with each other exclusively through their AI agents.
If that happened, then I could see the movie Her being our literal future. To put a bit more nuance to it, you will have a main agent that will serve as your “anchor” then other, value added agents that will give you specialized information.
But wait, there’s more.
It could be that instead of their being a plateau, that we will zoom directly into the Singularity and, as such, we have a whole different set of problems. Instead of a bunch of agents that will “nudge” us to do things, we will have to deal with a bunch of god-like ASIs that will be literal aliens amongst us.
Like I said, I honestly don’t know which path we will go down. At the moment, now in early 2026, it could be either one. You could make the case for either one, at least.
It will be interesting to see what happens, regardless.
You must be logged in to post a comment.