Category: Cold Civil War

Will A.I. Lead To The End Of The Knowledge Economy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re lurching towards a future in which the looming A.I. revolution is going to consume the knowledge economy. What’s worse, we could very well face something of a Perfect Storm in late 2024, early 2025 in which we experience a Petite Singularity at the same moment the United States may face the existential choice between civil war or MAGA-themed autocratic rule.

Now, I suppose it’s possible that the Peite Singularity could be punted down the road a few years as we address the whole autocracy or civil war conundrum which might also happen in the context of a potential Third World War. In that case, it would be similar to what happened with TV and WW2.

But there are two issues we have to think seriously about now.

One is, the need to mull the need for a Universal Basic Income. If virtually all knowledge economy jobs become moot, there’s going to be a need for a UBI. The whole issue of UBI could come rushing towards at such an abrupt speed that we won’t have any way to process properly. Our politics are already broken to the point of crisis that the added weight of having to figure out UBI may be too much for it. It could very well be we just don’t have the wherewithal or political will to institute a UBI in the first place.

Meanwhile, there is the risk that MAGA will be replaced with some sort of neo-Luddite movement that will be a direct reaction to the rise of AI. If 3 million high paying transportation jobs go poof! overnight, then the idea of a neo-Luddite movement definitely becomes a very real possibility.

One thing that is going to be interesting to see is if even journalism is transformed to the point that we get all our news from AI. That seems like a very dangerous situation going forward. If we defer things like journalism and law to A.I. there is a real risk that catastrophe might strike us.

It will be interesting to see how things progress. I just don’t think we’re ready for what is on the cusp of happening.

Of AI & Dave Chappelle

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something about how Twitch freaked out over how the AI generated Seinfeld “forever episode” said some pretty dumb anti-gay, anti-liberal and anti-trans jokes I find alarming. It’s not so much the jokes themselves that are at issue, but the idea that there was such a kneejerk reaction when it came to something dumb that an AI did.

Dave Chappelle

I’m extremely sex-positive and I honestly don’t give a shit what you do with your body as long as everyone is of age and it’s consensual. Love is love and all that. What bothers me is this incident feeds into the MAGA narrative that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to turn everyone gay.

It’s already a struggle for me to talk to me Traditionalist relatives about ANYTHING without having to spend 10 minutes hearing from them about how the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids. It’s all part of the broader “Gay Scare” that we’ve been living through the last few years. It sucks, yes, but that doesn’t change that there are are well meaning Christians who still think being gay is a “sin” and no longer believe in democracy because of the “gay agenda” of “woke people.”

What if the AI was, instead of doing rather bland Seinfeld-like jokes was programmed to do a never-ending Dave Chappelle-like set? It seems in today’s “woke” environment that that would be damn near an impossible thing to do. All of this is very corrosive and makes me fear that when the time comes in late 2024, early 2025 that it will be a near foregone conclusion that the United States will either slip peacefully into autocracy or have a National Divorce that prompts a civil war.

This is also sort of a quintessential “chatbot bias” issue. The very thing that the “woke cancel culture mob” freaks out about — telling jokes about gay people — is the very thing that MAGA wants to wallow in. And if they can’t get an AI to write a poem praising Trump, they’re going to want regulation to force the issue. Remember, Trump to this day crows over how he was able to get people to say “Merry Christmas” instead of “Happy Holidays.”

So, chatbot “bias” is just the sort of thing that MAGA is going to scream about at the top of their lungs at some point in the very near future. It could be just a matter of days before Trump or DeSantis picks up the “chatbot bias” standard and starts to scream about how this is just another thing that the “woke cancel culture mob” want to use to “groom” little kids to be gay.

UGH.

These are macro trends were dealing with and there really is nothing we can do about it. Either American democracy survives the 2024 presidential cycle, or it doesn’t. In other words — we’re fucked.

This Can’t Go On Forever

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The lingering political crisis that the United States has been experiencing can’t just keep going on forever. Something’s gotta give one way or another. We’re going to have to make a choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta sooner or later.

At the moment, it seems as though the issue is Trump.

If he is the 2024 Republican nominee, then win or lose, the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. If he ISN’T the nominee, then the United States is probably going to drift peacefully into autocracy under the next Republican president.

The only possible way we might punt this particular problem down the road is if somehow a Democrat is able to win in 2024 without Red States leaving the Union.

That’s it. That’s all I got.

The conditions of Trump being insane and Biden being very, very old are not exactly the greatest for the long-term health of the United States. I continue to worry that I’m going to become one of millions of domestic political refugees in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that the United States is about to collapse into Red and Blue nations that want to rid themselves of the other.

Now, let me be clear — I hate violence and, lulz, I have a novel I’d like to publish. So, all things being equal, I’d rather us be an autocracy so at least my six novel project that is just want big rant about how much I hate MAGA will be far more culturally relevant.

But we are still too far away for me to have any sense of what is really going to happen. It all depends on Trump. He could very well be seen, because of macro issues, as the man who single handedly stumbled into Great Man status because he destroyed the United States by being a lazy idiot.

Like I said, I hope it’s autocracy, if we have to make a choice.

Thinking Seriously About Implementing A UBI Because Of The Chatbot Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Up until now I’ve been cool to the idea of a Universal Basic Income outside of using it to replace the social safety net. I’ve been reluctant to embrace UBI because on one hand everyone is really lazy while on the other there are ambitious people who would rather burn the country down than be limited in what they could earn.

But now, with the advent of the looming Chatbot Revolution, I find myself reviewing the need for a UBI.

The use of UBI may be forced upon us a lot sooner than we might otherwise expect, if a “Petite Singularity” happens at some point between now and, say, early 2025. Everything is happening so fast that it could be that the 2024 presidential election is the first in which the use of a UBI becomes something we all talk about.

One way I could maybe see a UBI happening is if we bribed rich people by replacing the Federal Income Tax with a massive 30% VAT. Once fucking plutocrats get what they want, then the UBI can be instituted. But, even then, there would have to be some sort of exceptions so Type A personality people could do their thing.

Maybe, if you had some sort of job that couldn’t be replaced by a chatbot or android, you would get the right to make money over and above whatever the UBI might be? It’s a very curious situation.

I still think it’s possible that all of this may be moot for the time being as we sot out of we’re going to have a civil war, turn into an autocracy or have a military junta. It could be the late 2020s, or early 2030s before we figure out some pretty existential political issues in the United States.

Forget Turning All The Matter In The Universe Into Paperclips, The Real Issue Is Chatbots Won’t Say ‘The N-Word’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin with this one. So, rather than hashing out the important implications of the looming chatbot revolution like the potential need for a UBI, here we are fighting over how a chatbot wouldn’t use a racial slur to save millions of people.

For a group of people who grow ever-so-offended at the suggestion that they’re fucking racists, MAGA people sure do think up reasons to use racial slurs out of the blue.

This is so monumentally dumb and so much one of those things that is at the nexus of Incel-MAGA-Pothead culture that the fact that I feel forced to address it makes the whole issue even more grating on the nerves.

The reason why this is so dangerous is it’s simple for idiot MAGA people to process. Remember, for four years the president of the United States ranted about people not saying “Merry Christmas.” So, as such, it’s easy to imagine Trump ranting about how if only chatbots weren’t bias (relative to racist, misogynistic MAGA cocksuckers) there would be peace on earth and America would never again be threatened by a Chinese balloon.

And something something Hunter Biden’s laptop and or peen.

The chatter about “woke chatbot bias” is growing at alarming rate on Twitter. So, logically, even ding-dong Trump is going to eventually pick up the idea of “ending chatbot bias” as a political issue in the 2024 election. The more cultural weight we give chatbots, the more the calls for “regulation” to “end chatbot bias” will grow.

The question of course, is the enteral “who watches the watchers.” If the very idea objective truth doesn’t exist in the minds of MAGA, does that mean the only way you can produce a chatbot that doesn’t have a “bias” is if they are bias in favor of MAGA?

That particular question answers itself, I’m afraid.

So, if we don’t have a civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025, we’re probably going to be an autocracy and, as such, whenever we use a chatbot we’re going to have to wade through it saying the n-word for a few minutes before we get the answer to the question of “why is the sky blue?”

All About ‘Chatbot Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is beginning to dawn on me what, specifically, has been delaying the chatbot revolution up until now. People like Google wanted their chatbot to be something akin to a utility that was devoid of the nastier elements of the human experience. Because it just did not seem feasible to do it, they decided it wasn’t worth the trouble and kept the technology to themselves.

Then came ChatGPT.

And so we’re now off to the races with something akin to an arms race, to mix metaphors.

With this arms race, the idea of “chatbot bias” is now careening towards the forefront of everyone’s minds because we’re so hyper polierzied that the very thing that Google and others tried to prevent is also the very thing that people on the extreme Right want chatbots to wallow in.

Any hint that a chabot won’t spew on the hate of MAGA talking points is enough to make MAGA cocksuckers freak the fuck out. In fact, we are so close to the Right pivoting away from screaming about Critical Race Theory to screaming about “woke chatbots.”

In fact, I would suggest it’s just a matter of time at this point. As chatbots grow in culture significance as humans defer more and more decisions to an “objective” chatbot, the demands to regulate chabots so they aren’t “woke” is going to grow and grow.

And, in fact, that might be one of the first acts of America’s autocrat at some point after 2025 — demanding legislation that requires chatbots to spew out MAGA taking points and the ever-important poem praising Donald Trump. Ugh.

Now, obviously, the center-Left isn’t exactly innocent in all of this, either. There are elements of the far “woke” Left that will pitch a fit no matter how equitable the chatbot’s answer to the ever-pressing, “what is a woman” question might be.

Or, put another way, rather than solving actual problems, we’re all going to yell at each other for a few years about how “woke” the chatbots that are slowly taking over the world may, or may not, be.

Welcome to the future.

Of Marjorie Taylor Greene & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be alarmed by the political rise of Marjorie Taylor Greene because she’s just the type of person who Trump would pick as his second term Veep. What is so worrisome about her is she is it could be her, not someone like DeSantis, who is able to be the younger, more focused Trump.

MTG

Now, some context — I believe that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. He is so stupid and yet so popular within the ever-radicalizing MAGA Republican ranks that he could, unto himself, push Blue States out of the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

Or something. Something bad could happen.

What’s worse, Trump is beginning to make noise that if he doesn’t win in 2024, that THAT will be cause for Reds to start a civil war. The key issue when it comes to a potential civil war is it’s most likely to happen if we can’t figure out who POTUS is by January 20th, 2025. If that is still up in the air for any number of reasons, then the one institution that would otherwise stay out of the political fray — the U.S. Military — may be forced to step in for a little while to force cooler heads to prevail.

As such, as I keep saying, there are three possible Bad Things that could happen in 2024 – 2025: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Anyway, back to MTG.

She’s such a curious mixture of craven buffoonery and political ambition that she definitely reminds me of Hitler. All she has to do is become Trump’s second term veep and she suddenly becomes a potential POTUS. I think everything we fear Trump would do in a second term but might be too stupid to pull off, she would actually be able to do.

Yes, she comes across as an ignorant moron, but she is very, very politically craven from what I can tell. So we need to be weary of her. She’s not going away and she could very well become POTUS.

One thing that is absolutely clear to me — we are careening towards a massive turning point in American history and any number of people we don’t really think about could suddenly become huge historical figures because of an unprecedented political crisis.

‘ChatGPT is WOKE’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate being right. I continue to see chatter on Twitter among MAGA fascists regarding how angry they are at the “woke” nature of ChatGPT. Which makes me wonder where all of this is going to end.

I suppose that once we turn into a MAGA fascist autocracy that all chatbots will somehow be regulated to prevent the evil, pernicious forces of “wokeness” from being involved. As an aside, I have to say that all this talk about this or that thing being “woke” is total and complete bullshit. The fucking fascists call anything they disagree “woke” because they’re completely devoid of any meaningful policies other than expressions of hate.

There is, of course, the possibility that technology will solve this particular problem in the sense that everyone will have their own personalized chatbot in the near future, so if you want a “woke” chatbot, you can have one and if you want a chatbot that spews your own hate back at you, then you can have that, too.

But the point is — I can totally see Trump picking up the cause of “chatbot bias” the moment he’s back on Twitter — or sooner. It’s just the type of easy to understand and vacuous bullshit MAGA fascists love to traffic in. The great irony is, of course, that I was listening to the New York Times’ “Hardfork” podcast and they were talking about chatbot bias and I realized I was on the same page as them.

Because I am a drunk loser in the middle of nowhere I am going to get zero credit for having thought all the political implications of chatbot bias well before all the cool kids.

Ugh.

Death by ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve come to the conclusion that the United States may collapse because Traditionalists do a collective “vibe check” and they so hate what they find that they decide to become regular old fascists. They don’t know why they’re mad, they just are.

This “death by vibes” definitely seems to be a real possibility between now and spring 2025. Your average MAGA cocksucker has no idea, in real terms, why they love fucking moron Trump so much, they just do. They love the idea of Trump and they’re all-in despite Trump’s total lack of any established idiology other than “owning the libs.”

Some of this comes from not only how rapidly society is changing in the United States but the very inflexible orthodoxy of the “woke cancel culture mob.” This ‘illiberal Left” is a real problem in America in the sense that cultural Leftists can come across as very smug and inflexible.

They seem this way to the point that a lot of very sincere people are willing to embrace fucking fascism because they don’t like the vibes in America at the moment.

There just isn’t any ready answer to the “vibe check” problem. There are macro problems that are on the cusp of causing a civil war in the United States that we just can’t do anything about. I suppose it’s more likely that we just slip into autocracy without any sort of civil war….but if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then, yeah, a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 is a real possibility.

New York Magazine Pitch: ‘2024’s (Potential) Perfect Storm’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Long after being a journalist slipped out of my fingers, I’ve finally reached the point where I realize I just don’t have it in me to be a “serious” journalist. I may one day get to write for a living again, but it will after I sell my first novel as an old coot and start to churn out novels on a regular basis.

In the few remaining years I have before I drop dead, of course.

Ugh.

I fucking hate being old.

Anyway, someone at New York Magazine or Wired should write a thoughtful piece about the looming, theoretical “perfect storm” the global economy may faces between now and, say, spring of 2025. The scenario goes something like this — Republicans fuck up the global economy because they play chicken with the debt ceiling. This causes a severe, global recession.

This, in turn, causes businesses to turn to the “just good enough” chatbot technology to replace an array of jobs across the economy. This, in turn, causes an already severe recession to get worse. The severe recession hides that we’ve reached a Petite Singularity in the sense that a lot of jobs replaced by chatbots just aren’t coming back.

So, as we enter the 2024 presidential cycle the fucking MAGA fascists gain a huge amount of power because of a downturn….that they caused…and Trump wins the 2024 election. But his incoming agenda is so absolutely radical that Blues say “fuck that” and begin the process of leaving the Union. So, as such, my dystopian hellscape prediction of Something Big happening in late 2024, early 2025 becomes a reality.

I wish I could lay theory of the case out for New York Magazine or Wired, but I’m a drunk crank loser in the middle of nowhere struggling with my first novel. Ugh. Maybe someone else will write it.