Category: Cold Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My Traditionalists relatives love, love, love Florida’s govenor Ron DeSantis. “I wish I could vote for him three times,” is the exact quote. And, it could be worse. If fat fuck Mike Pompeo becomes our American autocrat in 2025, he’s really going to come down hard on freedom of speech right away, while DeSantis will at least wait a little bit.

Form follows function.

Anyway, there’s nothing stopping DeSantis at the moment. Except for Donald Trump.

Either Trump turns on DeSantis an neutralizes him — maybe by threatening to start a Patriot Party? — or DeSantis is about to shiv Trump politically and away we go.

It doesn’t matter though — we’re fucked. Any Republican president we have is going to be an autocrat. And that either prompts us to have a civil war or we slip peacefully into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing tired of writing about this. But the United States is running on political fumes at the moment. At I think the thing that would spark a civil war in roughly the 2024 – 2025 timeframe will be how the center-Right hides behind the United States being a “constitutional republic” to avoid the tough task of adopting their policies to the realities of modern America.

They would rather use autocracy as a crutch than mellow out or try to figure out how to appeal to non-bonkers white people.

The reason why this is important is should Republicans steal the election but still technically stay within the Constitution, the center-Left will grow so enraged that the “Great Divorce” that MTG keeps babbling about will happen not when the GQP leave the Union, but when Blue states – probably starting with California, do.

Then everything — and I mean everything — will come crashing down. A civil war will start and that will prompt WW3. The “Great Reset” that insane, bonkers Right wing nutjobs believe will happen…will happen. But not because of any conspiracy, it will happen because white people are afraid, in the abstract, of being “canceled” simply for being conservative.

Or we simply have one last democratic death spasm and slip peacefully into autocracy. And if it happens, initially nothing will change but gradually, over time, we’re going to politically become identical to Russia.

Both of our potential options suck so fucking bad. We just won’t be able to muddle through like we have the last few decades. Something’s gotta give.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m feeling a growing sense of urgency when it comes to reading up on the rise of Hitler and the Nazis in 1930s Germany. I’m reading a really great book on just that right now that is well written and extremely alarming. Some of what I’m reading about Hitler, the Nazis and the Weimar Republic in the early 1920s is nearly a 1 to 1 to what is going on in the United States right now.

It’s beginning to dawn on me that there is a real chance that MAGA will replace the Nazis as the Worst Ever Of Humanity from a macro historical perspective at some point in the near future. I say this because with either of the two most likely scenarios in 2024 – 2025, MAGA will be in a position to begin something equal to the Holocaust.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
   For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
2. Republicans have gamed the system.
   It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
3. Not Trump 2024
   Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
   
4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
   A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
   Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

If we become an autocracy, then gradually the worst of MAGA’s impulses will become law and POC and even Jews, will become the subject of persecution. And, don’t forget, people like me who just won’t shut up, too. It just seems to me that Americans don’t realize that once your political system goes septic like ours has, all bets are off as to how bad things might get. Once you have autocratic minority rule in a nation like the US and the there is absolutely no connection between the governed and the government, then there’s nothing to stop a President Pompeo or President DeSantis to fill ICE camps with POC, Jews and people like me.

That is, at least in my opinion, a real possiblity.

Meanwhile, if we go the other route, civil war, then significantly more people will die. In fact, a back of the envelope estimate on a Second American Civil War gives us 10 – 30 million dead from seized WMD being used. Add to that the potential for a race war in the south and general skullfucking by MAGA fascists against people they hate and, well, shit is going to get real.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And when it happens, there will be no narrative an no value. We will give such events both a narrative and value after the fact and what those two are will be determined by who wins the civil war in the first place. And it’s possible no one will win such a civil war — the United States will simply balkanize into warring states and there won’t be any tidy endgame like there was with the first civil war.

That really is the nightmare scenario.

Anyway, like I said, start reading about the rise of the Nazis. Figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to stuffer for in the real world. And also think about what you might be able to provide to the cause should things grow existntial.

Good luck.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is now clear to me that while I continue to believe we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy in 2025, we have to also take very seriously the prospect that there could be a civil war starting around then instead.

The reason is simple — conservative Traditionalists no longer believe in democracy. They are afraid of the browning of America. Instead of gritting their teeth and making common cause with “libtards,” Traditionalists are so scared about the changing nature of American society that they are, instead, making common cause with the American fascists of MAGA.

This is not a good sign.

The biggest reason is what happens if a Republican wins in 2024 specifically by fucking with the Constitution by using some of its more obscure elements? What happens if the divide between Blue States and Red States is so absolute when it comes to the question of “Is the United States a democracy?” that Blue States begin to leave the Union and a civil war erupts? Then what?

And it will be Traditionalists fault.

I am shocked that Traditionalists are so open about how much they liked the racist, misogynistic, cruel Trump policies, but didn’t like Trump himself. I mean, what the what? Fuck that. If that’s not a ping from a dark future, I don’t know what is.

But, again — 2024 – 2025 is going to be a shit show. And it could still go either way. We could still simply slip peacefully into autocracy and I find myself with an ICE bullet to the head. I know that sounds like just more of my hysterical doom shit, but fuck you if you think that.

Once a democracy has lost Traditionalists, it’s over. It’s just a matter of if you slip into autocracy or if you found a new democratic republic from the ashes of the old via armed conflict.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things aren’t looking so great for American democracy. Or, put another way — there’s a pretty good chance that as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle, things will grow existential. They country will be divided between Red States that think we’re a Constitutional Republic and Blue States that think we’re a traditional Western democracy.

The two sides will be so extreme, so absolute in their views that either we have a civil war or we slip peacefully into autocracy as the center-Left has one last death spasm. After that, center-Left people with the means will simply leave the country in droves. Our new autocrat will eventually grow alarmed and make it nearly impossible to leave the country.

The most alarming element of all of this is how Traditionalists, who would otherwise be the backbone of our Western democracy, no longer believe in democracy at all. They want autocracy without even realizing that they do. This concerns me because I’m never fucking shutting up and, as such, I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent should we become autocracy.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
   For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
2. Republicans have gamed the system.
   It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
3. Not Trump 2024
   Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
   
4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
   A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
   Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

America will, at last, be the type of “shit hole country’ that we so long looked down upon.

There just doesn’t seem to be any way for us to avoid this existential question. All the metrics are there for Something Bad to happen in a big way in late 2024 – early 2025. It’s at least possible that the world’s first hyper power will bomb itself into oblivion because of “cancel culture” of all things.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But, something’s gotta give. I have no idea which direction we’re going to go. I have no idea if we’re going to peacefully turn into an autocracy or if we’re going to have a civil war. I will note, however, that if Trump wins in 2024, the chance of a civil war rises significantly. He’s just such a fucking ding-dong he could enrage Blue States so much with his gloating that they bounce out of the Union.

I know this sounds like just more of my “hysterical doom shit,” but that’s what I believe. Call it the “Fourth Turning” or whatever you want, but the United States is extremely unstable right now and something dramatic is going to happen in 2024 – 2025 for no other reason than we’re a powder keg. The United States in late 2021 really is a successor to the Weimar Republic.

In other words — we’re fucked.

Get a passport. Figure out what you believe and what you’re will to suffer for in the real world. That’s all I got.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.