Category: Cold Civil War

Psychohistory, My Personal Dystopian Predictions For America & The Book ‘The Fourth Turning’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Steve Bannon’s favorite book is The Fourth Turning, so some time ago I bought it to figure out if I could understand what made that motherfucker tick.

What I’ve read of it so far is quite good and — here’s the spooky thing — all the ranting I’ve been doing of late about how we’re fucked in about 2024-2025 is also found in The Fourth Turning. In fact, I keep reading the book and getting chills at how accurate I believe their predictions are relative to what I’ve come to assume to be true about our fate.

They aren’t perfect — the book was written in the 1990s — so they don’t get what’s going on right now perfectly right. I think the thing that happened that they could have have predicted is the election of a black president in 2008. They said that things would get fucked up about 2005. So I guess they weren’t too far off. But I’m a big believer in my own form of “psychohistory” in the sense that I think about macro trends a lot and it’s just that Obama was kind of a Great Man who sped up some problems in the country because his election scared the shit out of racists.

So here we are.

When the United States either buckles into civil war or becomes an autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia it’s not going to be pretty. Either way, the entire world order will grow so destabilized that there might be a number of limited nuclear exchanges. If the United States isn’t there to keep India and Pakistan from blowing themselves up, for instance, that’s maybe 300 million dead right there (at least.) Then there’s China and Taiwan. The list goes on.

And, right now at least, our decent into either civil war or autocracy seems rather implacable. There’s nothing we can do to stop it. We can delay it, like we did in 2020 because of the pandemic and Trump being a complete fucking lazy idiot, but we can’t stop it. What The Fourth Turning does it give people like me some sort of underlining historical explanation for why we think what we think.

But let me be clear — there’s no reveled truth. No fate but what we make, as they say. Yet there are just too many things that are coming to a head for, essentially, WW3 not to happen in about four years. Too many Americans are tired of Empire and want to “bring the boys home” so we can become Fortress America and become a white Christian ethno state.

As I said, the issue is, how peaceful is our transition from liberal democracy into an autocracy? That’s pretty much the crux of our fate at this point from a prediction standpoint. There are specific things I simply can’t game out at this point. A lot will be decided which of the half dozen would-be autocrats wins the Republican nomination in 2024 and how popular they are with people who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 or 2016.

I have a feeling the next autocrat is going to be a lot smoother and the siren call of autocracy will be far to strong in the end. I keep encountering too many people who are obviously autocrat-friendly who didn’t support Trump personally but obviously want some sort of autocratic rule.

In the end, of course, I’ll just be a minority of one if need be. I will never support any fucking autocracy. That’s never going to change, regardless of the year.

Why We’re Going To Have A Second Civil War (Or Turn Into An Autocracy) In 2024-2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. Because of a number of very specific situations — the pandemic and Trump being a total ding-dong — the United States dodged a catastrophe in 2020. We won’t be as lucky in 2024. There is going to be severe political instability in the winter of 2024-2025. And either there’s a rolling political violence across the country that descends into something akin to a second civil war or we finally fall into Republican minority rule for the next 50 years or more. Here’s why.

FOX Fired Its Election Night State Caller
One of the subtle things that saved our asses was FOX News Election Desk called Arizona. That was a tipping point for the night. This will not happen in 2024. If Trump — or someone like Trump — is anywhere near winning on Election Night the crucial FOX News is going to be on the side of the bad guys, no questions asked. So it could be possible that the Right will never accept a Democrat winning, no matter what. So, either the 2024 election is stolen and we become an autocracy, or the country implodes.

The Macro Problems of the Last 40 Years Are Still There
The deep seated rot within the bowels of the American political system are still there. Republicans are hell bent on turning the United States into a white ethno state where white Christians tell everyone else what to do because they have no policies and all their political views are based on fear. So, in a sense, if it’s not 2024, it will be 2028 and so on. There is going to be a point when these different macro trends are going to come to a head one way or another. Either it will be a civil war or our zombie liberal democracy will finally just be dead.

The Republican Party Is A Fascist Party
Liberal democracy is simply a means to an end for the modern Republican Party. They see it as either a way to take power or keep power. Any form of compromise is weakness. A huge chunk of the Republican Party has slipped directly into such thuggishness that they’re willing to embrace the traditional fascist playbook to achieve their ends. So, once they take over Congress in 2022, that will be the setup a very brazen theft of the 2024 election one way or another. And, really, the issue is do the fascist Republicans bungle the strangling of our zombie liberal democracy and start a civil war or do they get away with it clean?

Known Unknowns
There are a number of things that may come out of the blue to change things so much in the next four years that what is obvious — that on a macro level the United States is fucked — doesn’t happen.

Elon Musk
Four years is a long time. It’s at least possible that on the technological front someone like Elon Musk might pull a rabbit out of a hat that throws everything up in the air. There are 3 million high paying blue collar jobs at risk should Musk perfect the automated semis he’s working on. It’s at least possible in the 2024 presidential cycle that something will happen whereby the far Right and the far Left merge into a new party that is opposed to “soft singularity” technology like automation. But that would be a lot more sooner than I would expect.

North Korea
This is an existential threat to the United States that if it flares up in the next four years could make a lot what I’m worried about very moot. If we have a major regional war the scares the shit out of us, then it’s possible the Biden – Harris Administration will quite easily win a second term.

The Inevitable
Neither Biden nor Trump is immortal and it’s at least possible that one — or both of them — may pull a Justice Scalia on us. If it’s Trump, then that opens up the flood gates for a number of young would-be autocrats to do a lot of shit that Trump wanted to do but was too big an idiot to pull off. If it’s, God forbit, Biden, then it’s possible a President Harris might have the spunk necessary to fight the macro forces that I think have us doomed at the moment.


In 2024, The United States Either Becomes An Autocracy Or Has A Second Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The first thing we have to keep an eye on is someone being shot on the floor of the House. This kind of shit happened all the time between 1830 and 1860 (according to The Field of Blood, a book I’m reading) and it seems inevitable it will happen between now and the winter of 2024.

Having said that, we are so fucked. So very very fucked.

The Republican Party, by definition, sees any policy or legislation on the part of Democrats as illegitimate. Unless, of course, they can claim credit for it so they can win votes and strangle our liberal democracy once and for all.

Anyway, the point is, when the next presidential election cycle rolls around, I just don’t see the American political system being able to withstand its passions. Either we, at last, become an autocracy or there’s a civil war. There are no other options.

We simply don’t have the political strength to punt this particular problem down the road another four years, much less the 20 or 30 years necessary so the browning of America can take place and we get over the hump.

All I can say is, at least my novel will be timely again by the time I try to sell it. And if I do somehow sell it, post-production will push it right into the sweet spot of all my ranting against extremism being very timely.

Cancel Culture, Nostalgia Politics and Breakfast At Tiffany’s


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why the fucking dickhead cocksuckers of FOX News may soon be babbling about the “canceling” of Breakfast At Tiffany’s is the movie pretty much is what “make America great again” means — a return to an era when it costs a white man $50 in New York City for a woman to go to the powder room.

Excuse the low-tech nature of my dystopian hellscape scenario.

The move is extremely white other than Mickey Rooney’s racist neighbor character. So old people and racist, misogynistic idiots who want to fuck their guns can wrap themselves around the movie and say we have to destroy America because we can’t risk the movie being “cancelled.”

Let me be clear — I love Breakfast At Tiffany’s, but I doubt Truman Capote would be all that thrilled for it to be thrown into the maw of the culture wars by fucking cocksuckers who watch FOX News. I mean, what fucking kind of fucking cocksucker watches FOX News? Idiots!

Anyway, I only rant like this because I know we’re just four years away from either a civil war or a final slide into autocracy. It’s cathartic to rant in public, hoping I might get my point across to some MAGA Qanon dipshit who stumbles across this site at the mere mention of “Cancel culture” in the headline.

I still think is tragically amusing that in four years the United States is probably going to finally buckle into anarchy, even though if fucking idiot MAGA people would simply play by the rules of a liberal democracy they could everything they wanted.

But, not, they want to hurt people. Idiots.

Should Breakfast At Tiffany’s Be ‘Canceled?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No
Long Answer: It’s complicated. Let me explain.

Ok, so the whole reason why the fucking FOX News bullshit echo chamber keeps stroking one to the idea of “cancel culture” is because they have no agenda and no policy ideas. They’re fucking fascist cocksuckers who would rather destroy America than risk the browning of America or accepting women with sexual agency.

So, really, the whole idea of “cancel culture” is done in a bad faith manner. The whole thing is fucking bullshit.

And, yet, there are aspects of so-called “cancel culture” that exists enough to give MAGA Qanon fucktards something to hang their hat on. Fucking cocksuckers.

Anyway, as for Breakfast At Tiffany’s, other than the Mickey Rooney’s tragically racist character in the movie, the movie is The Perfect Movie. But the Rooney character is, self-evidently, a racist stereotype.

It seems to me the solution is to simply edit the character out of the movie. And if that’s not possible, then liberal-progressives need to slow their roll before they do anything too conspicuous to the movie. A movie like Breakfast At Tiffany’s that would be so easily use as cudgel against our zombie liberal democracy to finally kill it.

So, either this issue blows up and helps the fucking fascist racist MAGA Republicans get out the vote so they can strangle our democracy and establish a “managed democracy” like they have in Russia or it doesn’t.

Burn Hollywood Burn: Is Oscar Dead?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love the Oscars and I love movies. And, in all honesty, if I had had a mentor of some sort to knock some sense into me when I was, say, 15, I would have gone into creative writing as a young man and bounced to LA as soon as I got out of college with a Creative Writing / Theatre degree. (Or something like that.)

But, alas, that’s not what happened.

Anyway — given how niche the movies the Oscars are celebrating are, we have to begin thinking the unthinkable: that the Oscars are dead. They’re now irrelevant.

I only say this in the context of what they once where. For generations, an Oscar movie was both a creative and financial success. It’s only been in the last decade or so that Hollywood has begun to grow more interested in the artistic quality of the movie and not the “double dees, double dees” aspect as SNL would tell us.

I think Hollywood should embrace this as a form of freedom. They should not televise the awards anymore, but put them on Amazon Prime or Netflix and let them be four hours without interruption.

My Novel’s Villains Aren’t Bad Enough Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I’m beginning to slip into a groove about how to wrap up this first draft before the sun goes black, I find myself thinking about how to make the final project better.

One issue is my villains remain more “moods” than evil personified. They just aren’t up to the evil found in Stieg Larsson’s original Millennium series. But I do think I’m going to do some reading to at least give my villains some sort of ideological underpinning for their dickhead behavior.

I’m getting there. I’m getting much closer.

I have a specific book I’m eyeing as I write this that I think will be the key to giving some sort of motive to my villains. And, I recently read Ezra Klein’s “Why We’re Polarized” which, in a sense, helps ME with the universe I’ve constructed. That book — despite not giving any answers to why we’re polarized –definitely was an eye opener for me as to try to make this novel an allegory about the fading Trump Era.

‘The Lady Bird Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The novel has an existential problem, in a sense. And that problem is it’s meant to be a vaguely allegorical critique of the Trump Era and the Trump Era is, thankfully, over.

And, yet, I press on for two reasons. One is what I call “The Lady Bird Gambit.” This is the idea that if you really develop character and plot — and just make something a great experience for the audience — that they’ll forgive you if you’re also leaning into “instant nostalgia.”

Love this movie.

So much has happened, in a sense, since 2020 started that I think if I make it clear that’s when the novel is set, then when I go off on subtextual rants about how insane those days were, then people will give me a pass if the story they’re reading is otherwise just a lot of fun.

Meanwhile, the other issue is MAGA-GQP-Trumplandia ain’t going nowhere. In fact, if my fuzzy understanding of novel post-production is accurate, then just about when this novel would be published (IF I SELL IT) would be just about when we have to start worrying about the fucking MAGA cucksuckers again.

As such, in a sense, I keep working on this novel because I know in the long-term I’m putting my stick where the puck will be, no where it is right now. But, also, I just love this story and I’ve gotten so far into the process that I simply can’t in good conscience give up.

You can’t edit a blank page, as they say.

‘Cancel Culture’ & Breakfast At Tiffany’s


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

How exactly does the conservative bugbear of “cancel culture” work if the easy pickings of Mikey Rooney’s portrayal of Holly Golightly’s Asian neighbor in Breakfast At Tiffany’s hasn’t caught its attention yet?

The depiction is so fucking racist that it makes what is otherwise The Perfect Movie in to a solid B+ movie. It comes out of nowhere and doesn’t really do much to serve the plot. In fact, I would go so far as to say we should either cut out that part of the movie altogether or film the movie again shot for shot with a new cast and simply change the plot as necessary to avoid that character’s existance.

The only thing I can think of as to why the movie hasn’t been “canceled” in some way yet is it’s not on any of the major streamers and, as such, it hasn’t come up as an issue.

Elon Musk & A Potential Strategic Realignment of American Politics


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of technological megatrends are coming to a head in, say, the next four or so years. I would propose that Elon Musk — if his dreams of automated semis come true — could personally cause a massive realignment in American politics.

The origins of that realignment are already there.

The Republicans, because of Trump, want to be the party of the volk. And, yet, it’s really the party of “German Industrialists,” if you will. But imagine 3 million high paying blue collar jobs go…poof!..at some point in the next four to 10 years when we no longer have any need for human truckers.

Then, you have the possibility that the Far Left and the Far Right of each party will become very interested in Neo-Ludditism and become their own party, while the moderate corporate-friendly parts of the two parties would fusion into a new party. This process would likely happen very fast — maybe within one or two presidential election cycles. Then something that the political class absolutely hates — a clear choice — would be presented to the electorate.

Voters would have a choice between an autocratic, anti-democratic, anti-technology party and the debris of everyone else. While given the reasons for why America is so very, very, very fucked there’s no stopping our march to autocracy, the rise of neo-Luddites might, at least, slow the process down.

But this is all very theoretical at the moment. It could be that I’m over thinking things and what I think is going to happen –we’re either going to be an autocracy or have a civil war — is what is going to happen.

Again, as I keep saying — get out while you still can.