Category: Cold Civil War

The End(?) of The Trump Era & The State of My #Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t help who I am. I’ve always been either “very creative” or just a regular old crank — depending on how much you like me. I just don’t fit anyone’s narrative. For most of a decade, I didn’t do jack crap.

Then the Trump Era happened and suddenly I had something to say.

So, here I am, zooming towards finishing a novel (two novels, one story) that’s supposed to wallow in the tropes of the Trump Era….just as the Trump Era is (hopefully) wrapping up. And, yet, I still think I’m on safe ground for a number of reasons.

  1. MAGA ain’t going nowhere.
    The problems that caused MAGA will linger for years to come and Trump could always pop back up in 20204.
  2. It May Be Cathartic
    This novel may be cathartic for “woke Park Slope moms” in New York City who want to reflect on what happened from 2016 to 2021.
  3. It’s “Just a Good Story.”
    In real terms, the only reason why why Trump is even involved is the actions of his administration gave me the rage necessary to get to this point. All I have to do now is finish the two novels of the story and try to sell them.

Everyone Take a Deep Breath — Trump May Actually Leave


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s at least possible that the Trump Era may end not with a coup, but with a whimper. This is not to say that some pretty surreal, unexpected and potentially violent things may not happen between now and January 20th.

But now that the pardons have begun, it’s at least possible that Trump may slink out of Washington doing nothing more than just pardoning himself. Or resigning in January and getting Pence to pardon him then leaving town — or, hell, the country.

There are a lot of unknowns — Bill Barr may pop out of his spiderhole and stage a coup of some sort. There might be some sort of political violence. But as we approach Thanksgiving, I think we can at least give ourselves 24 hours of hope that Mike Pompeo isn’t going to nuke us to hell (via Israel) because he thinks Trump is the anti-Christ.

MegaTrend: ‘Humans First’ –The Rise Of The Luddites


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s been about a decade since smart phones came out and began to change the lives of everyday people. The next big technological shift may be when Elon Musk disrupts the trucking industry — kills it, really — when he perfects an automated semi without the need for a driver.

If this happens really fast, it’s not difficult to imagine today’s MAGA turning into tomorrows Luddites. And, really, all you need for this transformation is someone a Trump like character who isn’t simply an avatar for the rage of the common man, but someone who takes their rage and leads them in a specific direction.

So, it’s possible it could go Tea Party — > MAGA –> Luddites. Now, for this to happen, you probably would have to cleave off a big chunk of the Republican Party. It’s difficult to imagine rich, educated MAGA going along with such a radical agenda. It’s easy to imagine a situation where this happens and the Republican Party finally dies.

Or there’s a massive re-alignment of American politics with the wealthy tech-friendly people going to one party and the Luddites soaking up extremists from the far Left and far Right who have a common enemy — technology (or, the Singularity.)

I’m wrong all the time, though. But it is something to think about.

Our Very American Coup Isn’t Over Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It ain’t over folks. Trump still believes he can somehow win. But now the risk of a violent civil war is significantly greater should he manager to pull off what he wants — a “political 9/11.”

Here’s what we have to look forward to.

Legislative Nullification
In this crisis happens after Republican-dominated legislators simply refuse to do their job, even if it’s against the law or they have no right to do it. They simply nullify Biden’s win by either throwing up their hands in faux confusion or name their OWN MAGA Electors. This. Could. Still Happen. This will happen they’ve been coaxed and browbeaten by Rudy’s disinformation campaign within Newsmax-OANN bullshit chamber. Remember, the point of THIS would be to throw the disputed Electors to Congress where the law is so poorly written that it would go to SCOTUS and Trump would win.

Elector Intimidation Crisis
If we get past the Certification Nullification Crisis, we have Trump freak out and attempt to appeal personally to the Electors themselves. He may even alternate good cop – bad cop with Jr. Jr. doxes Electors on Twitter, while Trump himself invites them all to a 48 hour retreat to Camp David. Everybody got a price. Everybody got a family. Electors are humans. They are no different.

SCOTUS coup
If Rudy pulled this gambit off, this would really be an honest-to-God-coup. As I understand it, there’s a case making its way up the judicial chain of command to SCOTUS. It’s a procedural case with no evidence other than, “We’ll give it to you when we get to SCOTUS.” So, I guess the thinking is, if they can simply get something, ANYTHING in front of SCOTUS then someone like, say, Bill Barr could potentially swoop in with new “evidence” that would allow Trump to be handed the election outright. The issue is, that’s not how any of this works, so if it DOES work, then that’s a coup and a rather brazen one. In other words, all the law-types saying what I propose isn’t even applicable are right — but so am I.

Trump’s January Freak Out
If all this doesn’t work out then things get REALLY UGLY. Trump could just go insane because he can’t process leaving office and potentially going to jail. There is a spectrum of things that could happen. From the benign — he quits after pardoning himself, to The END: Trump snaps and starts a war with Iran. Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and this is last chance to force the Rapture by having a literal Battle of Armageddon. This would probably happen when Pompeo gets Israel to strike Iran first, they strike back at Israel and then bang! end of the world. Sadly, no Jesus Christ returning, just The End of Human Civilization.

And, remember, as I keep saying, Rudy’s gambit is all tactical. They just want to “not lose.” They have no idea what happens if they actually get away with all this bullshit. But if do manage to pull off a “political 9/11” at this point then were will be a violent civil war and / or revolution and potentially The End of everything. Like, that would be it. Human civilization would be ended because of Trump personally via WW3 when America is “disposed” during its implosion.

What Is Wrong With You People (Who Want A Second American Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t get people who actually want a Second American Civil War. Talk about the dumbest timeline! If you have a political belief that causes you to want not only mass murder but the potential end of human civilization through a World War 3, maybe you need to rethink what you believe.

The issue is — once a civil war started in the United States two thing would happen. One, the two sides would grow significantly more radical and would likely steal WMD from American military bases. The other is, the entire post-World War 2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would begin.

So, yeah.

It seems as though what people who want a civil war want is to be able to wave a wand where they don’t have to worry about being “canceled” for just being conservative. Or something. They simply can not accept how fast America is changing on social issues and so they would rather risk the lives of millions than accept, say, gay marriage or the sexual agency of women. That’s kind of deep. But I guess if all you do is watch Newsmax and OANN, then there’s not much else you can expect.

I am obsessed with my Webstats and it definitely seems as though a lot of Southern cocksuckers really do think “the South will rise again.” Speaking as a New South Southerner — grow up, you idiots. Accept the modern world. I can’t help that you’re in too invested in the MAGA personality death cult.

Do I think there’s going to be a civil war? I honestly don’t know. But I will say if Rudy’s SCOTUS gambit works at this late date or if some idiot blows something up in protest to a Biden Administration, all bets are off. Anything, but anything is possible.

The End Of The Beginning Of The End Of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m so happy it appears as though Trump may actually leave office. We still have a long, long, long, long ways to go. But at least this is the end of the beginning. Anyway, how is this possible, you ask. I thought autocrats “never lose.”

  1. He’s lazy and incompetent.
    There’s a reason why Trump is a “would be” autocrat — he really is just an empty suit. While Republicans have gotten pretty much everything they could possibly want with Trump because of their control of the Senate, to date, he hasn’t been able to take it to the next level. I overestimated his political ability and underestimated the power of American civil society.
  2. He didn’t strike before the election was called.
    If he was really the political genius that Maggie Haberman and — apparently me — think he is, he would have goaded Bill Barr into striking before the election was called. He probably could have “not lost” at SCOTUS had he done that. But, to date, Bill Barr has sat on his hands. It’s not over yet, of course.
  3. All his actions were tactical
    I really screwed this one up. Even Rudy’s usual disinformation tactics couldn’t overcome the dead hand of politics once the election was called. It’s surreal that they waited until AFTER the election was called to try to start ratfucking. There was no over all, grand strategy other than “just win.”
  4. It’s not over yet.
    I’m cautiously optimistic. But we’re one political bombing away from the country descending into civil war. But maybe, in the end, we’ll get through this. Trump could still do “something weird” (or destructive) on his way out the door.

Rudy’s SCOTUS ‘Political 9/11’ Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

What gets me is people like Chris Christie don’t understand what Rudy and his goons are really up to. The point is not to win anything in court, the point is to make the average person, who is too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to worry about politics, think what’s going on is “just like 2000.”

It is not, as you may know, “just like 2000.”

The 2000 race was decided by about 500 odd votes. Under the conditions of 2000, Trump has lost, lost, lost. Rudy knows that if he can make it seem as though the result of the election is still up in the air — which isn’t — then they have a shot at pulling off a “political 9/11” at SCOTUS should the opportunity arise.

Or, put another way, they want to create enough doubt within the center-Right bullshit echochamber that about 50% of the population listens to, that it gives cover to MAGA legislators in Michigan and Pennsyliva to simply nullify the certification of votes. If that works, then we have a coup.

It will be given a thin cover of “this is just like 1876,” but it’ll be a coup. It goes to CONGRESS, NOT THE HOUSE, and because the law on disputed Electors is shit and Congress is split….it goes to SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose.”

That’s the disinformation strategy that Rudy is has in mind right now. I’m not being hysterical to say this strategy has worked over and over and over and over and over and over again for Rudy the last four years, so makes sense that it will work YET AGAIN.

The stakes are a lot higher, but the results will be the same — Trump lives to fight another day.

Now, of course, there is zero overarching strategy to any of this other than “just win,” so when they do “win,” there’s probably going to be a civil war / revolution and a lot — maybe a huge amount — of Americans on both sides will die for no damn reason.

I hope I’m wrong. I’m often — almost always — wrong. But at least be aware of what’s really going on right now.

‘I’d Like You To Do Us A Favor, Though:’ What If Trump Hosts The Electoral College At The White House?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been so busy assuming the Far Right would dox electors, that it didn’t occur to me that Trump might out of the blue call them all to the White House for a little tet-a-tet. And there’s absolutely nothing we could do about it.

We haven’t even gotten past the Certification Crisis, either. So, it could end there. Trump could throw the election into Congress, then SCOTUS then win. But if we get past this Certification Crisis, then we might see the surreal imagine of all the Electors spending the weekend at the White House or Camp David for the specific purpose of Trump attempting to glandhand them into voting for him.

Hell, he might even try to bribe them.

“I’d like you to do us a favor, though….”

While it’s still very possible that out of the blue a Right Wing insane person might murder an Elector before any of this can happen, I guess what I’m trying to say is — Electors are the weakest link of the Constitution because they’re physical human beings.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.

America Is So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see how we get out of this current situation without some sort of major political violence. All the conditions are there. The only this missing is one — 1! — extremists on either side blowing something up or killing someone important and we have a civil war / revolution on our hands.

On one end, it would just be huge protests — enough for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act — and we would have something akin to what’s going on in Belarus right now: a stalemate. A lot of protests, but not much change. Trump quickly consolidates power by purging the media, among other things, and the First Republic is felled by a deranged, failed TV gameshow host.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have an honest-to-God civil war. It’s not a few hundred people who die, it’s potentially a FEW FUCKING MILLION. We pretty much just nuke and gas ourselves into oblivion because working class white men can’t figure out the point of the progressive tax and are very VERY afraid of being “canceled” because of a stray Tweet.

Throw in the potential for a WW3, and we’re talking about a serious End of The Age kind of situation.

But, thankfully, I’m almost always wrong. So, we’ll see.

I do need to drink more, though.