Category: Cold Civil War

The Metrics Of ‘The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All signs point to Trump simply never leaving office, no matter what. I say this because of Bill Barr. Even if Trump loses in a massive landslide, Barr is going to be Trump’s hatchet man and make sure all Trump’s troubles go away. In the end, it all endsup at SCOTUS and Trump wins 5-4 or 6-3.

And, yet, it has to be noted that this isn’t going to happen in a political vacuum. This is not 2000. The reason why the Republicans were able to steal that election was the country wasn’t as polarized and it was something of a sucker punch. It took us years to process what happened and why.

While I absolutely believe at this point that TrumpBarr will “not lose” the 2020 election, there is at least small possibility that I’m wrong. In the end Trump’s incompetence will finally, at last be his downfall. But the nation will have to go through a traumatic experience to get rid of him.

Here’s the idea — it soon becomes apparent that TrumpBarr has lost “the mandate of heaven.” So much so that even Senate Republicans, sated by a huge tax cut and hundreds of young, hack MAGA judges might begin to distance themselves from The Dear Leader.

One metric to look at is Sen. Lindsey Graham. If Graham starts to make it clear that Trump should leave office because, lulz, he lost the election, then that’s a good indication that even though Trump is using the full weight of the U.S. Government to stay in power, that the political ground has shifted subtly beneath him.

But the biggest metric to look at his Trump himself. If Trump’s insanity and political criminality fuse — which they will — then it’s possible we enter a gotterdammerung situation where Trump, using Barr, sort of forces the issue. He forces EVERYONE to take a side on an existential level. So much so that the Republican Establishment itself begins to fragment.

I guess you could call this the “Very American Coup” scenario. In this situation, TrumpBarr’s attempt to “not lose” the election is nothing short of a political 9/11 attack. Everyone knows what’s going on. Everyone is on the same page. And it all boils down to if you’re a Trump “true believer” or not.

So, even though even Senate Republicans don’t want Trump to take everything to SCOTUS, he does anyway. He wins there and the country is so fucking enraged at what has happened, that the fucking bolts finally pop off and the United States implodes along the lines of the Soviet Union in 1991. But probably in a far more messy, violent manner — The Big Ugly.

It just seems like 2020 is it. This is the election where 50-odd years of macro trends all crest at the same moment and all of our nightmares and dystopian fears happen at the same time.

I honestly don’t know the endgame. I honestly don’t know if TrumpBarr wins or if such a brazen extra-political attempt to stay in power will be enough to get conservatives-who-are-not-MAGA to get woke or not. If we can’t get that crucial part of the electorate to finally show some backbone, then on a political level, at least, the United States in 2021 will be identical to Belarus in 2021.

A Nation On Edge


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two things are happening at the same time right now. One, we’re seeing massive in-person voting 20 days before the election. If that keeps up, we might see 30 million people vote before election day.

On the other hand, TrumpBarr will never fucking leave power for any fucking reason.

As such, we’re in for The Big Ugly.

Now, I am well aware that a lot of people think Trump’s too much of a lazy, incompetent moron coward to simply stay in power no matter what. While he is, in fact, all those things, Interior Minister Bill Barr is NOT those things. So, it seems logical to assume that even if Biden somehow wins with a massive popular vote total, Barr is going to lulz that.

TrumpBarr will use the full power of the U.S government to challenge any and every aspect of the election that hasn’t broken their way. This will go to SCOTUS and the result will be 5-4 or 6-3. The end, fuck you, America.

And, yet, at the same time if what everyone expects — Trump leaving office because he has lost in a historic landslide — doesn’t happen because of a dubious SCOTUS decision….well, things may get ugly. Like, Big Ugly, ugly. I say this because of the Mueller Report. Barr, through simple media narrative management was able to keep Trump in power.

As such, it seems logical that Barr will start off trying to do the same thing and grow more radical the more difficult it becomes to do that. This is a very risky game Barr is playing because once you lose the Mandate of Heaven, you should politely leave office.

If it becomes impossible for The New York Times to deny that a fucking coup is taking place, well, then, The Big Ugly has begun. Things are going to grow existential. Given that apparently bad guys always win these days, I can only assume that in the end, America will be under the TrumpBarr jackboot.

We just don’t have it in us to do what is necessary to catch #MoscowMitch’s attention — bring the country to its knees.

It just isn’t going to happen. After all is said and done, TrumpBarr will “not lose” the 2020 election and that will be that. We’ll leave NATO, form an alliance with autocrats around the world and the dystopian will officially be here. The ICE camps will be come death camps and Qanon’s dreams will come true. Maybe they’ll empty the cities and there will be American Killing Fields.

The stakes are really that high.

American Nobody


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear from the beginning that I’m a nobody. I’m an anonymous rando. I could literally drop off the face of the earth at this point and my absence wouldn’t be noticed by anyone outside of my immediate family.

And, yet, I often say that if the apocalypse happened, I’d either be the first person to die or the person who brought back civilization. Well, I hate to break it to you, but we’re on the precipice of a fucking political apocalypse. The reason why I say this is TrumpBarr — even in the face of a landslide at the polls — will never, ever, EVER FUCKING LEAVE OFFICE.

So, therein lies the makings of a historic clusterfuck.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do hope I’m wrong. And, really, it’s not like I have any credibility to lose if I am. But there’s a greater-than-zero-sum chance that not only will the United States implode in a matter of months, I’m going to be driven from my home because of my politics.

I’m going to become just another of the thousands of Blue citizens in Red areas that have to flee in the wake of political violence. If that tragically does happen to me, I’m heading north to NYC. I often say if could crash on a couch in NYC in a home with access to the subway system that within six months I’d be a minor celebrity in the city.

Throw me into what would be, essentially, revolutionary NYC, and I’d have a pretty good chance of finding myself in some rather surreal situations for no other reason than I have the skillset of someone who thrives in the chaos of a country on the brink. I’m good at abstract thought. I’m good in a crisis. And I’m good at the strategic thought associated with mapping out scenarios.

Let me be very clear — I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But if things have gotten so bad that I’m driven from my home because I’m a libtard, well, my fate my be foisted upon me. You can’t be a hero unless fate gives you the opportunity to be one.

But, again, all that sounds “delusional and stupid.” And it is. And, yet, I also know that about 90% of the people who should take the lead in such a situation don’t because they’re scared of the risk associated with such a dramatic situation or they have too much to lose.

I really hope I can just finish this novel I’m working on. That’s all I want. I have no desire to do anything but that at this point. But I’m not going to sit on my hands if The Big Ugly comes. I’m going to do something, anything to make the lives of my fellow Americans better.

I just want the liberal democracy of my youth back. That’s all I want.

TrumpBarr’s Coming ‘Political 9/11’ Strike


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The biggest historical catastrophes happen when, given the available information, something happens and things don’t work out the way they were expected to. Contrary to “The Guns of August,” the European powers wanted war in 1914 because, for lack of a better phrase, thought it would be “cool.”

So, here we are in October 2020 and TrumpBarr is laying in wait to strike at some point between now and whenever it becomes apparent that Trump may not win outright. (I still think he will because the Russians are going to directly fuck with our election systems, but, lulz.)

Using the full power of the U.S.. Government, TrumpBarr will, essentially, attempt a coup. The more difficult it is for them to simply using media messaging control to steal the election after the fact, the more radical they will become. Their ultimate fall-back is, of course, a 5-4 or 6-3 victory at SCOTUS.

This is where things get tricky.

If, on a political level, Biden wins in a landslide and TrumpBarr STILL try to steal the election, then, well, we got a problem. But, then again, do we? Are people really prepared to risk what’s important to them in the real world to force TrumpBarr out of power?

I honestly don’t think so.

The only thing that would force #MoscowMitch to be Barry Goldwater 1974 would be if a General Strike crashed the American economy to such an extent that out of absolute sheer desperation he felt he was forced to do so. He would have to think the very existence of the Republican Party was at stake to do such a thing. Otherwise, lulz. Those young hack MAGA judges aren’t going to appoint themselves, now are they?

So, it seems to me that America 2021 is going to look identical to Belarus 2021 — at least on a political level. Americans would have to fuck some shit up on a pretty near-revolutionary level for the Republicans not to simply clutch Trump tighter in the face of any prospective crisis.

And I just don’t see that happening.

As such, the bad guys have won. The Republic has fallen. We’re already Putin’s America. I’m going to get either pushed out a window or snatched off the street within 18 months by some ICE goon because of all my ranting online about Mad King Trump I’s tyranny.

Oh well. Fuck those guys.

The Big Ugly: America Has A Very ‘July 1991 Soviet Union’ Vibe To It Right Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why I keep comparing Trump to Gorbachev is I can remember in the years leading up to the August Coup how no one, but no one could understand what his agenda was or what the ultimate endgame would be.

Trump is the same way — we know we’re in a new era and we have no idea how any of this is going to end.

I still think very, very soon we’re going to experience The Big Ugly. I like this phrase because it’s not like I have to say, civil war, revolution or implosion. It’s just something BAD — The Big Ugly. The reason why I think The Big Ugly is going to happen is TrumpBarr will never peacefully leave office and, yet, the mood of the country (maybe?) has subtly begun to shift towards something (maybe?) akin to a landslide (if we were still a liberal democracy.)

As such, when TrumpBarr stage a coup of some sort, that’s going to slam up against American self-perception and the bolts may pop of the country. To the extent we see a massive amount of domestic political refugees as Red and Blue States begin to consolidate.

There’s also a chance that something pretty lit might happen in NYC — Trump Tower could be stormed. FOX News, The WSJ and New York Post could be literally driven out of the city. Hell, maybe even some sort of commune might be established there (free state?)

Anyway, the point is — there’s no endgame right now. The United States, because of the passions of the 2020 election and personality cult that surrounds Mad King Trump I may, well, fucking implode like the Soviet Union did in late 1991.

In general, I would suggest this isn’t going to happen because the countries are too different. And, yet, fucking cocksucker MAGA-Qanon shitheads may simply decide to force the issue, especially if TrumpBarr gives them every reason to believe they can successful keep Trump in power via some sort of well-finessed media messaging management coup.

To me, it seems as though The Big Ugly might happen for no other reason than TrumpBarr make the caculation that the dead hand of history is on their side and, by the way, fuck you.

Have no idea if they’re right or not.

Only time will tell.

The Big Ugly: American Balkanization, Canada & Reshaping North America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate it when I accidently slip into giving our dystopian future some sort of all’s well that ends well narrative like some sort of sanguin liberal-progressive Turner Diaries. With the Turner Diaries it was — as I understand it — a far Right fever dream that involved a race war.

With my narrative, it’s The Big Ugly happens but in the end, my liberal-progressive dreams come true because we found a new nation based on the ideals of California.

But that’s really me stroking one out to something that may not happen.

It may be that when The Big Ugly happens, the United States — if it doesn’t become a full-blown autocracy — simply implodes. A form of balkanization happens in the US. And that’s it. There’s no more United States. California successfully leaves the Union and the rest of the Blue States are under the MAGA-Federal jackboot via the Insurrection Act.

And that will be that.

I guess the point of that is The Big Ugly is going to suck should it happen.

Another thing is — if The Big Ugly happens, I just don’t see any way Canada doesn’t get drawn into it. And it won’t be some sort of liberal-progressive circle jerk where Blue States form the United States of Canada with Canada, either. Things may get violent. Canadian worst nightmares about Americans coming after their “resources” may come true.

Or, at least, the entire political map of North American may change in a rather sudden, dramatic fashion. Some sort of force-union between some Blue States and Canada might happen. Or MAGA-USA invades Canada because it meddles in TrumpBarr’s attempts to turn us into Putin’s America.

What I’m saying is — the next four months could really, really fucking suck. A lot of people may die tragic, needless deaths simply because fucking Trump is a demagogic moron who is afraid to go to jail.

I just want a liberal democracy. That should not be so controversal.

‘The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This fall and winter are going to be ugly. Big Ugly. We have a spectrum ahead of us from Trump “winning” outright and turning us into a very poorly run autocracy to an outright implosion.

I say this because two things seem to be true — Biden for the time being is winning on a political level and autocrats never lose. So either TrumpBarr pull a rabbit out of a hat or the Russians hack directly into our election systems or whatever. Trump isn’t going to lose despite it seeming he should on a political level.

Either we fight back as Americans or we don’t. I have come to believe because of one crucial demographic — conservatives who aren’t MAGA — we’re going to lulz this. If we can’t get conserves who aren’t MAGA (but vote MAGA) to at least tacitly support any mass reaction against TrumpBarr’s upcoming coup, then, well, we’re doomed.

There might be some violence here and there like in 2016, but not the massive, rolling protests necessary to catch the attention of #MoscowMitch and others. All that is going to happen will be TrumpBarr will use the Insurrection Act to “deal” with what happened.

Please note, I’m not advocating any sort of revolution or civil war. I’m just saying autocrats never lose and we have to prepare ourselves for a new America where American Little Green Men push people out of windows and snatch people — like me! — off the street.

The bad guys are going to win. They’re going to win either by simple post-election message management or an outright coup. Something pretty significant has got to happen for me not to think this. Something really big.

Otherwise, get ready for The Big Ugly.

It’s going to be….ugly.

If You’re MAGA-Qanon & You Want A Civil War — You Are A Fucking Moron


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It boggles my mind that a sizable portion of MAGA-Qanon are so oblivious to how much they are getting using peaceful means that they would start hurting people simply because they were “triggered” because their guy didn’t win on election day.

Idiots!

The American political system is so dominated by MAGA-Qanon (MAGAQ), and macro trends are so in their favor, that if they started hurting people, all of that may go poof! pretty quick.

I say this because political violence is so alien to modern Americans that the idea that dipshit MAGAQ would start shooting people (or whatever the fuck they want to do) is enough that they may lose everything. Americans have a strong sense of justice and hurting people is A Bad Thing for 99% of us. And, yet, here we are.

I keep seeing shithead guys with tiny cocks and big guns walking around threatening people.

As an aside — what I think is going to happen is these fucktards are going to firebomb polling stations on Election Night so we can’t figure out who won. Then TrumpBarr seizes “total control” as has already been suggested. Then either the really do turn into Putin’s Russia, or we are absolutely forced against our will to fight back.

I hate that. I don’t want that. I just want a functioning liberal democracy.

That should not be a big deal.

The Glorious American Revolution Of 2021



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the big, new U.S. Grant biography and it’s really good. It’s extremely timely on a number of levels. It definitely feels like Something Big is about to happen in the United States just like in the late 1850s for no other reason than two absolutes are careening towards each other — Barr is never going to let Trump lose and it definitely looks as though (at the moment) that’s exactly what’s going to happen to Trump on a political level.

So, that’s the setup for Something Big in what is, in real terms, a matter of days.If there is some sort of Soviet Union August 1991 event in the United States, it’s likely to happen because of some sort of extra-political 9/11 event. Or, put another way, some sort of miscalculation on the part of Barr. It might not even be a miscalculation — given what he has available, the idea that through sheer media manipulation and fucking with the law and norms that he really can hand Mad King Trump his ill-gotten second term.

The reason why things might blow up in TrumpBarr’s face is the average person sees what’s going on for what it is — a coup — then all bets are off. And, as I keep saying, the key type of person to think about it the “conservative-but-not-MAGA” person. If you can somehow, someway, get them to stop thinking about “cancel culture” long enough to notice the fucking coup going on around them, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to stop it.

If that type of person joins with the traditional center-Left opposition to Trump, the whole country comes to a grinding halt. At that point, either there’s a civil war, a revolution or both. The conservative-but-not-MAGA person is pretty much the bedrock of the American political system. If they feel TrumpBarr has forced the issue and they’ve lost “The Mandate of Heaven” then the United States — in its present form — could very well go the way of the Soviet Union in late 1991.

One way of doing it.

I’m not joking.

Let’s layout why this is. The big thing that’s different about the United States in 2020 and the Soviet Union in 1991 is economic — the United States’ fundamentals are fine. What we have is a fucking insane political problem where fucking fascists like TrumpBarr use the resentment of rural areas to tell secular metropolitan areas what to do.

The most surreal aspect of all of this — at least to me — is fucking cocksucker MAGA people hating on the media. Oh, come on you shitheads. You fucking morons. You keep talking about “cancel culture” when such a culture didn’t exactly stop Trump from becoming president, now did it?

I still think if you’re a MAGA fucktard you’re a fucking idiot if you want a civil war. You. Are. A. Fucking. Moron. You’re getting everything through what’s left of politics. Why would you want to turn things existential and risk turing those soyboys you think so little of into Rambo?

Who will play the part of these guys?

What one might compare the coming instability in the United States to is England’s Glorious Revolution. Their ruler lost the Mandate of Heaven, so he was replaced. So, in a sense, any “revolution” in the United States would be a personal revolt against TrumpBarr.

I really hate that my fucking novel may become moot if any of my dire predictions become a reality. I really like this novel. It’s a really great idea. I am also unhappy that given my personal skillset and my natural inclination to race towards danger, not away from it, that fate my put me in some pretty surreal situations sooner rather than later.

Though, with my luck, I’ll probably get murdered by some crazed MAGA person on the first day of an revolution or civil war. Ugh.

Potential Upcoming ‘October Surprises’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. The Full Mueller Report Is Released
    Because of a deranged tweet on the part of Trump, it’s possible that an emergency FOIA request by BuzzFeed might actually get us the entire Mueller Report right before the election. Or not. Given that we’re now an autocratic managed democracy, Barr could simply shrug and say either “fuck you” or “wait until after the election.”
  2. Trump’s Taxes A Leaked
    Even though the NYT apparently has gotten Trump’s taxes, it’s possible that at least on a criminal level, the authorities might actually get them as well. It would happen mid-October or so. They might leak in their entirety and they might show Trump is doing his foreign policy directly because of his finances.
  3. A Durham Investigation “Preliminary Summary”
    Even though we’ve been told “not to expect any indictments before the election” when it comes to the Durham Investigation, that doesn’t mean Barr won’t pop out and lay out what he thinks the investigation will show at some point after the election. Given how absolutely deranged Trump is about indicting someone, anyone he doesn’t like, this could be a way for Barr to square the circle on that one
  4. Trump Finally Snaps
    Given that Trump constantly acts as though he has already snapped, how we would know the difference, I don’t know. But I guess it would be a matter of degree. Trump would do something so insane that in some sort of transational fashion that it finally gets people’s attention.
  5. COVID19
    Someone REALLY IMPORTANT shuffles off this mortal coil and suddenly everything is throw up in the air in a big, big way. I really don’t want this type of thing to happen.
  6. Political Violence
    This would happen in such a way as to either cause people to “rally round the flag” right before the election or pretty much cause the country to implode in some fashion.
  7. Geopolitical Saber Rattling
    In real terms, both the DPRK and Iran have been very quiet. I could see Little Rocket Man trying to help his BFF Trump by scaring the shit out of us. Then everything goes out of control and we’re fucked.

    Bonus Post Election Surprises
    Even if there’s a huge landslide in Biden’s favor, Barr STILL tries to steal the election and all bets are off. Or, even worse, the Russians steal the election for Trump and we find out sooner rather than later.