Category: Cold Civil War

Of ‘BlueSky’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most annoying aspects of the Trump Era is how radicalized both the Far Right and Far Left have become. What’s worse, all of this is happening in the context of the center simply not existing — you have to pick a side, one way or another.

Anyone who claims to be a “centrist” is a fool. They are, by default, tacitly siding with MAGA because MAGA exploits any time someone refuses to pick a side.

But wait, it gets worse.

Because of the nature of modern politics in America, once you do pick a side, you are forced to defend the dumbest, most radical positions of your side. With all that in mind, let’s address what I’ve experienced on the Twitter clone Bluesky.

Up until recently, the service just seemed like an updated version of the very inward looking WELL service of the 1990s. It was at first invite only and once I got access to it, it seemed very much a place for exiled smug Twitter liberals to sit around and smell their own farts.

But all of that has changed since the start of the war in Gaza. Now, the service is dominated by Far Left radicals who freak the fuck out if you, in any way, quibble with their orthodoxy. They get really mad!

They get so mad that it’s kind of a surreal caricature of what conservatives think anyone who disagrees with them are like. I sometimes feel like I have a better understanding of why MAGA people double and triple down on their fascism whenever anyone calls them out on it.

I recently got into an argument about a comment I made about how part of democracy is the marketplace of ideas where everyone yells at each other until we collectively come to some consensus about what direction the country will take.

When I refused to say what views I might have that don’t fit the Leftist orthodoxy might be, THAT caused heated debate. The more I thought about this particular issue, the more I realized it would be wise to just refuse to be pinned down.

The point is — once you get into that type of argument, the whole thing becomes a no-win situation. It’s a trap. It’s like when a wife asks her husband if her new outfit makes her “look fat.” If you’ve gotten to that point, you’re screwed. There just is no way to admit to something that doesn’t fit the Leftist orthodoxy without THAT being the thing you get yelled at, not the issue that first introduced the subject in the first place.

So. I don’t know. I will continue to use BlueSky, but I’m on a hair trigger when it comes to anything I might believe that might upset the Far Left.

Worse Case Scenario: Trump’s Second Term

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When thinking about what might happen in Trump’s second term, there is a key thing to contemplate: is Trump too dumb and lazy to go full tyrant while still pretending to care about the rule of law?

Is it possible that his political and historic purpose is simply to destroy the United States by totally and completely making the unpreceded move of going full tyrant without giving a shit about anything but staying in power? I only broach this because he repeatedly during his first term seemed to indicate that he was prepared to just extend his time in office without an election because he “deserved it.”

If he did such a thing during his second term, then that would probably be the set up for a revolution / civil type situation that would destroy not only the United States in the near term, but the entire post WW2 liberal order. WW3 would probably happen and billions of people might die specifically because of the actions of one Donald J. Trump.

There is a chance, of course, that somehow, someway, Trump is convinced to press for a Constitutional Convention that would put MAGA Enabling Acts into the document. Doing such a thing would at least keep Trump within the boundaries of the law — even if the law was now extremely fascist.

So, that’s kind of the spectrum we face in a second Trump Administration. On one end, the country collapses into revolution / civil war and chaos and on the other, we become something more like Putin’s Russia. I’m aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment, but all signs are pointing towards something along those lines being our choice.

The Death of Discourse?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of many alarming signs of the decline and fall of the Second American Republic is how the discourse on — pick a subject — has become a blood sport. Just staking out An Opinion on ANYTHING is enough to rile people up.

But let me be more specific — not to sound too Red Pilled, there is a Media Narrative that exists about the world around us. If you have the temerity to believe ANYTHING that doesn’t adhere to that orthodoxy, there is hell to pay.

This most comes into play on subjects like trans rights and anything to do with the culture wars in general. The orthodoxy on trans rights is often so murky and fluid that you don’t even know what it is unless you are Very Online.

Meanwhile, in all my years of life, I’ve never seen anything as controversial as the current war in Gaza. Twitter Leftists have such an absolute orthodoxy that you have to absolutely adhere to that it can really make your head spin. What’s worse, that orthodoxy makes absolutely no sense.

They are so absolute in their views that they apparently would rather have a second Trump term than compromise for the sake of democracy. It’s crazy. Totally and completely bonkers.

I’m reminded of what I’ve read about the corrosive politics found in Weimar Germany right before the Nazis took over. I fear that should MAGA take over again that there will be whole chapters of some future American history book devoted to how fucked up the politics of 2024 were.

Anyway. Good luck, folks. You’ll need it.

The Political Nihilism Of Twitter Leftists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter Leftists have radicalized in just the last 24 hours, since the student protests in New York City were crushed by the NYPD. I understand their anger. But some of the rhetoric that Twitter Leftists have generated in the last day or so is rather overwrought.

They clearly want something that is simply not possible given the metrics of current geopolitics — Biden to embrace their most radical positions in regards to the war in Gaza. This is just not going to happen. And I understand that Twitter Leftists are so frustrated that they suddenly have begun to proclaim that they would rather Trump be president.

But this is political nihilism in the extreme. They are so frustrated that they can’t get what they want, that they have decided to burn everything down. This is a not great, Bob, type situation because we already have the Far Right wanting the same thing.

The idea that anyone — especially a Leftist — would want Trump to be president for any reason boggles my mind. Any Leftist who advocates such a thing clearly has not thought this through. That is the politics of spite.

But, here we are, with a small — but vocal — group of Twitter users bitching and moaning about something that Biden doesn’t even have any control over: the actions of the NYPD.

The Electoral College & Twitter Leftists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The central problem of American politics is the Electoral College. As the nation’s political divisions grow more and more severe, the fact that the Electoral College forces us into a Blue – Red dichotomy becomes a bigger and bigger problem.

If we elected presidents on the basis of the popular vote, then we would have numerous parties to chose from. What would probably happen at times like these is some center-Left party that opposed the Gaza war would begin to gain traction.

Now, I’m assuming this new non-Electoral College system would go something like this — we would have a two-round system with the run-off election for president being between the top two vote getters of the first election.

But we’re stuck with the Electoral College.

So, are in a situation where fucking Twitter Leftists want to burn everything to the ground because of some misguided belief that President Biden is implicated in what has been happening on college campuses across the nation. Twitter Leftists are so upset over what’s happening that they want to indict the whole system…but don’t have any ready solutions.

They are just mad. Sometimes they go so far as to say they would rather people vote for Trump — yikes! — and sometimes they twist themselves into rhetorical pretzels that boil down to, “Well, we should get rid of the Electoral College.”

It’s all a very fucked up situation without any ready solution. There’s just no ready answer.

Jerry Seinfeld & The Fate Of Comedy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I try to be as moderate and empathetic as possible. But sometimes the “woke cancel culture mob” really gets on my fucking nerves. Take, for instance, what’s going on with Jerry Seinfeld and his belief that people being “woke” has caused the demise of comedy.

There is so much wrong with the reaction to this comment — on both sides.

The MAGA Right has glommed onto his observations as a way to confirm their priors. They believe that they can “own the libs” by screaming at the top of their lungs that what they believe HAS to be Right because “even Seinfeld” agrees with us.

Meanwhile, the “woke cancel culture mob” is just as bad. They really are so touchy that they can’t take even the smallest amount of criticism. They are doing everything in their power on social media to “recon” away how Seinfeld is one of the greatest comics of the last 30 odd years.

Now, as for what Seinfeld believes — I don’t know what the truth is. I suspect he has something of a point, but I also think that the economics of comedy have changed drastically in the last few decades to the point that the comedies of the 1970s, 80s and 90s just aren’t economically viable anymore.

Just the advent of streaming itself is enough to throw things out of whack.

I guess I’m just annoyed at how polarized the American political system is. We can’t come to any agreement about anything — not even the fate of comedy — and it is really aggravating.

The Radicalization of Traditionalists Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the 2024 election will be decided because of macro political, historical and demographic trends, barring some black swan event that I can’t predict. As such, I’m inclined to believe Trump is going to win simply because of bad vibes, if nothing else.

Traditionalists are so upset over the browning of America, the “gay agenda” and the secularization of the country that they feel as though they have no choice but to support a fucking tyrant like Trump. They rationalize the dangers of giving Trump a second term by saying, lulz, he was all talk the first time, of course he’ll be all talk the second time.

Yikes.

From personal experience, it definitely seems as though Traditionalists — who are the bedrock of any stable democracy — are so weirded out by the extremes of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright. As such, we’re pretty much fucked.

Having said all that, we also have to admit to ourselves that if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025, that there is a real chance that some pretty unprecedented things might happen — up to and including Trump being deposed in some way. That, in turn would cause a civil war to happen.

Or not. I can’t predict the future.

But the fact remains — late 2024, early 2025 could be up there with the Russian Revolution in terms of jaw dropping, history making events. The key thing is Trump is telegraphing what he wants to do in a second term. As such, I just can’t believe that Trump could go full tyrant without there being some severe consequences.

The United States is just too big, too diverse and has too strong a tradition of democracy for us to just shrug and accept Trump being a tyrant overnight. If he does a “shock and awe” attack on the institutions of the United States there will be consequences for everyone involved.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet. There remains a chance that somehow, someway, we’ll muddle through things like we have done so many times in the past.

But I am worried this time could be different, very worried. And the key thing to look for is how Traditionalists respond when Trump begins to snatch people off the street. Things would have to get REALLY BAD for Traditionalists to sit up and take notice.

If Trump starts to arrest people he doesn’t like, the first thing radicalized Traditionalists will say is Trump is just using “lawfare” against people he doesn’t like, just like Biden supposably did (in their view.) As such, it will be interesting to see how fucking bad things will have to get before Traditionalists begin to question their decision to go all-in on Trump.

I suspect only if it gets personal will they care. They will be Good Germans until they, personally, have to deal with some tyrannical thing Trump has done. THEN they might begin to second guess their decision to support MAGA fascism.

But only then.

Am I An ‘AI Doomer?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of what I engage with on Twitter, I’m being fed a growing amount of AI community content. What gets me is so many users — young men, presumably — are obsessed with accelerating AI development until we reach Artificial General Intelligence.

AGI would be much like Sam in the movie “Her.” But, given current advancements in robotics, it’s very possible that sexbots will become affordable enough within a decade that Incels will have absolute no reason to ever get anywhere near a living, breathing, biological woman. Ugh!

Before I go any further, I remember what it was like to be a young man transfixed by technology. In my instance, it was the Internet. I was very, very obsessed with every twitch of the Internet revolution when I was in college. It was that obsession that would ultimately lead me to have a very misguided time as a technology manager in the late 1990s.

Anyway, the key thing for me is that there is a good chance that AI will revolutionize humanity’s existence in much the same way that the Internet did, only far, far quicker. Instead of decades of gradual change, it could be years — or months! — of very, very fast change that will be looked back upon as something akin to a Petite Singularity.

As an Old, I just don’t see how anything like AGI being developed is going to help humanity. All these people touting the life of prosperity, luxury and surplus seem to be oblivious to the hateful, cruel nature of capitalism. The only way anyone my have any money in the future is if there’s a Universal Basic Income.

There is a real chance that AGI will cause either massive political and economic disruption or, in the end, there will just be the Poors and the Very Wealthy and that’s it. I continue to believe that MAGA may evolve into an anti-tech movement at some point in the near future.

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

The Curious Case Of The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two interesting things happened that gave me pause for thought. One was Bill Maher laid out a view some of the issues surrounding the “woke cancel culture mob” that I could not dismiss out of hand. It was nuanced and at first glance at least, seemed to expound upon a view that pretty much fit what any reasonable person might think about the subject.

Mood.

Meanwhile, just in the last few days, Jerry Seinfeld said that he thought that comedy had been chilled a great deal by “woke” people being too easily offended.

These two things have given me pause for thought because I find myself wondering if my views on these subjects are out of step with the “media narrative” and will, as such, cause me to get “canceled” if I ever blow up with my novel money.

I don’t know why I even worry about such things because selling my novel and having any success of note will be like winning the lottery. But, lulz.

It all gets worse when you consider that I have seen a number of people on Twitter get their panties all in a bunch over Seinfeld’s comments. I do believe there is some merit to what he had to say and it doesn’t just stop with comedy. For some reason, the “woke cancel culture mob” also has an extremely puritanical view of heterosexual sex in the arts.

Anyway, I try to be as moderate and empathetic as possible. It would help a great deal if there was nuance in public discourse, but alas, that’s just not how things are these days. Everything is yes / no, black / white and people can get pretty worked up if you don’t adhere to the orthodoxy.