Category: The Resistance

‘Heading North’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to think about what the fuck I’m going to do if we actually do have a civil war. At the moment, I’m heading north. I’m a Blue speck in a sea of Red and if things have gotten so bad that I feel it necessary to head north, then there will probably be an infrastructure in place to help me do just that.

I thought you were dead.

It is both exciting and abjectly terrifying that there could come a point in the near future when everything will be thrown up in the air. Heroes will be made. Cowards will be named. Both will live in our memories forever. In other words, if things get as bad as my absolute worst scenario, even a freaky weirdo loser like me might find a moment to shine.

Which, of course is very tragic — why would things have to get that bad in the first place?

But my state, Virginia, is one of several states that will likely implode if there is a civil war. The state is just too internally divided for that not to happen. But that’s really the worst case scenario. What’s more likely to happen is we’ll slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

I’ll cross the autocrat and find myself in a camp.

Apocalypse America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ. The Republicans are moving the goal posts AGAIN. Now that they’ve caught the car of overturning abortion in Red States, the goal they are going to fundraise with now is the total, complete ban on abortion (and birth control) across all 50 states.

And, given how ascendant they are politically, one has every reason to believe they’re going to catch this particular car. The question is, of course, when does catching the car actually hurt the Republican dog? Ever? Will there ever be a moment when Blue States get woke and realize that Republicans want permanent white minority rule?

Let me be clear yet again — I hate violence and certainly don’t want a Second American Civil War. But I will note the fucking fascist Republicans are doing everything in their power to put a knee on the throat of Blue States. As I keep saying, Blue States will face the existential choice in 2024 – 2025 of bending a knee to a MAGA New Right themed autocracy, or attempting a “National Divorce” by seceding from the Union.

And, as I also keep saying, any “National Divorce” will be messy, messy, messy and bloody, bloody, bloody. And that doesn’t even begin to address the fact that WW3 will start should there be a Second American Civil War.

But Republicans will have only themselves to blame if Blue States decide to leave the Union (or try to.) The differences between Red and Blue have grown so absolutely extreme that something’s gotta give. Either we implode into autocracy or we explode into a civil war.

While, yes, there is something of a spectrum in all of this with civil war on one end and autocracy on the other, in reality when the time comes, we’re going to have to pick one or the other.

For the time being, my general belief that we’re just going to become an autocracy still stands. But I would keep an eye on the reaction when Roe is officially overturned. The key element is Blue States just don’t have the leadership they need to successfully leave the Union.

And I just don’t see any reason for Red States to leave the Union since they’re kind of the bullies of this particular moment in our nation’s history.

2024: The Year The Olds Step Aside?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even I, as an Old, am growing frustrated with how other Olds are clinging on to political and cultural dominance. It seems as though we’re way, way, way overdue for a major “vibe shift,” the likes of which we’ve not seen since about 1960.

AOC 2024

And here’s how it might happen — Joe Biden, citing his advanced age — bows out of the 2024 election. And who suddenly becomes the front runner? The newly married (and potentially great with child) AOC. She would be compared to JFK right off the bat. She would BARELY be 35 — her birthday is late in the year, as I understand. (It’s actually in October and she’s 32 now, so, yes, she could pull it off.)

And if she was pregnant while she was running for POTUS that would make the Washington press spooge their pants. There would be talk of how she’s putting her baby’s life at risk from all the campaign stress, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Anyway, the point is — the vibe shift between now and around 2025 (if we don’t endup blowing ourselves up in a civil war) could be rather dramatic and AOC running for POTUS when she’s barely, barely 35 would be the tip of the spear for such a thing to happen.

But the Western World is ripe for a Changing of The Guard. I mean, there are sooooo many Olds who just need to retire. Around 2025, Lorne Michaels of SNL fame is also said to be thinking of retiring, so there you go.

It will be interesting to see how the vibe shift shakes out. It could be we wake up one morning and realize rock and punk are back, superhero movies have been replaced with the gritty movies of the 1970s and….the Olds have all gone to The Villages to become MAGA New Right Republicans?

Does ‘Woke Cancel Culture’ Even Exist?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I struggle a lot with is how real “woke cancel culture” even is beyond the fevered political wet dreams of MAGA New Right Republicans. It seems to me that a number of different things are happening and they’re being all referenced as the same thing — “woke cancel culture.”

I do think that on social issues younger people — the ones who are the most Very Online — do have different expectations than the Olds. As such, when Olds do something that crosses them, they’re the first to flip out on Twitter about it.

Another thing that is going on is Republicans are using any sign of the above to stoke their base’ absolute visceral paranoia about being “canceled” just for being conservative. I know from my Traditionalist relatives that the abstract fear of being “canceled” is at the very forefront of their minds. Their fear is, in general, that they will say something Not Leftist in public, it will be recorded by someone with a smartphone, it will go viral and their Lives With Be Ruined.

But there’s more going on even all that which makes things even murkier. The #MeToo movement was a revolution in gender politics that, like all revolutions, kind of went to extremes at points. (All the name brand people who were brought down by the #MeToo movement definitely deserved it, but the Aziz Ansari event is something I struggle with because of its complexity.)

And, lastly, a number of the people associated with being “victims” of “woke cancel culture” either deserved it or are doing quite well, thank you. I mean, Dave Chappelle continues, to this day, to tell “transphobic” jokes and he’s the biggest comic in the world.

Tell me, Fox News, how he’s been canceled.

I don’t know. I just don’t know. It’s all very complicated and needs a nuanced response, something that is impossible to get in an age that lacks subtly.

Of Bill Maher & Fox News

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Bill Maher these days is someone who Fox News loves, loves, loves to hold up and say, “If you’ve lost Bill Maher…” when that’s just fucking bullshit. Maher is a libertarian who is more anti-MAGA than he is center-Left.

Yet the obsession that the MAGA New Right has with pointing out Maher’s disillusionment with some elements of the center-Left, especially the “woke cancel culture mob” aspect of it, grows more and more grating by the moment. Which, of course, is the point — Fox News wants to smugly troll the center-Left by alleging that one of the Left’s own has abandoned them.

This is complete bullshit.

I will note, in passing, that while I’m definitely not a libertarian, I do share with Maher one thing: I’m far more anti-MAGA than I am Leftist. In fact, there are parts of the Left that I fucking hate. And, yet, the center-Left, in general, is far, far more fact based than the modern American center-Right and, as such, that particular choice has been made for me.

Anyway, lulz.

It’s not like we can do anything about any of this. The two sides are receding from each other at a historic rate. America is either going to slip peacefully into an autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war.

What The Fuck Is Going On With MonkeyPox?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is not meant to be an informative post so much as a mulling of what is generally known and what it might mean. When it comes to MonkeyPox, we have something of a medical mystery on our hands. It could be this all just a lulz and it could mean that there is community spread of MonkeyPox for some reason that we don’t understand yet.

I’m worried.

There are some things we have to understand before going any further — MonkeyPox is not deadly and we have a vaccine. But, from what I can tell, if you get it you’re not doing anything productive for a while. And it’s scary looking, so that, unto itself could be enough to cause people to freak out if, for some reason, MonkeyPox is now more transmittable.

The fear is, of course, that the same political dynamic that hampered our abiilty to slow the spread of COVID will pop up with MonkeyPox. But the thing that has me worried the most is, something weird is going on with MonkeyPox — it seems, at least, to be spreading a lot easier than it should.

It seems, a least, that there is community spread like we saw in the early days of COVID. I would suggest you keep an eye on celebrities — if a celebrity catches MonkeyPox and admits it like Tom Hanks did, that could cause the US to shut down for a while like COVID did in the early days — even with the existence of a MonkeyPox vaccine.

Only time will tell, however. It could really go either way. It could be that MonkeyPox is going to equal COVID19 in regards to political, economic and historic significance and it could be a lulz. I will note, in passing, that during COVID that a number of political parties across the globe in democracies were rewarded by handling the pandemic well.

Theoretically, if Biden proved adept at managing any sort of large spread MonkeyPox outbreak, it might help Democrats significantly in the 2022 midterms. If Republicans allow it, of course. The fuckers.

How Likely Is It, Really, That The United States Might Have A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A steady stream of people come to this blog interested in my (often drunk) ranting about the possibility of a Second American Civil War. I think we’re still too far out to know for sure one way or another.

But we’re getting there. Things are beginning to come to a head for us to know one way or another.

One thing that really muddles things is it’s the MAGA New Right that is the one so fixated on a second civil war of some sort. So, you hear the most buzz about a civil war from the one group that has the most to lose from one starting — the MAGA New Right.

Meanwhile, the Blue States are very blasé about the fact that the moment in time when they have to decide if they’re going to “bend a knee” to the MAGA New Right is rushing towards them at an alarming rate.

As such, I think we’ll know a lot more about what’s potentially going to happen after Roe is officially overturned in June – July. If the Blue States begin to freak out, then, yeah, there’s a chance that when the 2024 election is brazenly stolen because of Steve Bannon’s “administrative coup” then we may have a civil war. But if it’s a meh, then, lulz, no. We’re just going to become an autocracy.

So, I would say keep an eye on events between the moment Roe is officially overturned and January 2023 when the 2022 mid-term vote is certified. So, around February 2023, we’re going to know if we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy or if we’re pretty sure going to stumble into a civil war.

If Trump either or becomes Speaker of the House and / or decides to run for POTUS again in 2024….then, yeah. Blue States are probably going to seriously contemplate leaving the Union to the point that we may have a civil war.

Which, of course, would suck.

Why Things Getting Bumpy Between Now & 2025 May Be Inevitable

by Shelt Garner
@shetlgarner

If you don’t notice that we’re on the cusp of some big historical events, you must not be paying attention. Here are a few things to look at between now and Certification Day 2025

MonkeyPox
This is very much a downlow kind of potential crisis. It will only really be a crisis if the community spread we’re seeing here and there really begins to take off. So, keep an eye on the next two weeks. (It takes too weeks between when you’re infected and when you show symptoms — at least that’s the case with smallpox, as I understand it.)
GQP MAGA Fascism
The thing we have to appreciate is the MAGA New Right cancer has completely taken over the Republican Party. They have come to believe that, by definition, if they lose an election that it’s rigged. Of course, it’s going to get ironic when they finally gain power again and never let it go and the opposite side will have ever reason to believe that this is really the case. But anyway –the point is, even if we manage to punt the risk of GQP autocracy down the road a few election cycles, we aren’t going to be able to eliminate it totally — at some point we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
A Potential Civil War
Until the GQP-themed autocracy is finally consolidated once and for all, there is going to be a risk of a civil war. Blue States may ultimately refuse to “bend a knee” and instead try to leave the Union. Then we have a civil war. But I still doubt seriously that it going to happen. But it is, at least, possible.

Is AOC Running For President?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, well, well, AOC is engaged. I’m quite pleased and I wish the couple well. But the pragmatic political observer in me has to smirk — I think AOC may run for POTUS in 2024 should the opportunity arise.

Now, some caveats

One is, I don’t know anything and, as a CIS white male, you should aggressively ignore me. Only an intersectional feminist woman of color can properly talk about the complexities of AOC getting engaged in the context of her political career.

So, if I was smart, I would either a) not write this post or b) stop here.

But, guess what, I’m a dumbass. So I’m going to not only keep going but also address the pink elephant in the room — if AOC wants to be POTUS, she probably needs to have a baby between now and November 2024. I say this as a long-time AOC supporter.

I’m just being realistic.

I mean, if HRC can have one (1) baby, then I don’t think it’s too much to believe that AOC will have one baby simply so the nutjobs on the far Right can’t attack her for not knowing the joys of motherhood.

Anyway. Ignore me. But I had to get that off my chest. I hope AOC runs — and wins — in 2024 (if the opportunity so arises.) And if not POTUS, maybe she can be someone’s veep.

MAGA’s Asymmetrical Attack On American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that so many Twitter liberals miss is we face a long term, structural problem when it comes to MAGA. They don’t to win every election, they just have to win enough elections to destroy American democracy. Which, if we were really all that honest, we would admit doesn’t even exist anymore.

We’re an anocracy. Or, in other words, an autocracy without an autocrat.

So, we’re either going to have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. At the moment, I think we’re just going to peacefully turn into a full blow autocracy because the entire system is designed to keep people sedate and placated. It happened in 2000 and when Republicans brazenly steal the 2024 election, it will happen again.

And that will be that.

There will be the occasional huge protest over this or that thing, but in general, they will be as meaningless in the United States as they are currently in Russia. So, lulz.

If you have the means, get out the country. It would be comforting to think that maybe the center-Left might at least put up some sort of struggle…but it definitely looks as though that isn’t going to happen.

Oh well.