Category: The Resistance

Taking Texas’ Threat To Secede Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The signs are there that one side or the other may collectively decide to start to a National Divorce as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. But, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Reds are far more likely to do it than Blues.

And the one state that seems most likely to secede beginning at some point in late 2024, early 2025 is Texas. The talk of secession is so hot in Texas that a paper in the state wrote an editorial telling people to shut up about it.

The key reason why I believe Texas — then other Red States — might actually pull the trigger on a National Divorce is state Republican Parties are so fucking radical these days on a structural basis, that if the time comes they may actually do it. Damn the consequences.

There are two scenarios whereby I could see Texas — then the rest of Red States — might leave the Union. One is, Trump loses and when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce to keep himself out of prison, Red States, starting with Texas then probably South Carolina, will actually take him up on it.

Meanwhile, the OTHER way Texas might begin a National Divorce is if Trump is somehow deposed for going full tyrant after he wins. THEN, I could see Texas leaving the Union, which would prompt other Red States to do the same.

All of this is still very speculative and abstract at the moment. The only reason why I think the country MIGHT collapse into revolution / civil war is they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And all the signs are there that the country is gradually moving towards a level of political instability not seen since the first Civil War.

Of course, it’s very possible that we’ll just drift through this particular situation and nothing of note will happen one way or another. But for that to happen, not only would Biden have to win, but Trump’s rantings about the need for political violence after he lost would have to be ignored.

I just don’t know if we’ll be that lucky.

What Will Indicate We’re Fucked Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.

Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media
One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City.

Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump
If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do.

Mass Migration
As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag.

Secessionist Conventions
If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?

World War Three
If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.

I’m Growing Uneasy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. So as we careen towards the 2024 presidential silly season with the greater-than-zero chance that all hell will beak loose because of it, I find myself dwelling on what I will do if my worse fears come true.

I’ve written about this before, but my concerns continue to linger. I’m kind of a Blue spot in a sea of Red where I live and if the country collapses into stark worlds of Red and Blue — something’s gotta give. I just won’t be able to live in where I live anymore because my politics will inevitably be figured out and, besides, I would prefer not to live in Trumplandia, anyway.

I suppose if things got really bad, I could make a trek to Richmond where I have some relatives — but that would only be a stopgap measure because if things have gotten so bad that I have to flea my home, Virginia will be in chaos. In chaos to the point that I — and many others — will be fleeing the state for more stable states.

Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of revolution or civil war, Virginia will be one of the first states to collapse into political bloodshed. I suppose the longer-term solution to my problems in the event of a civil war / revolution would be to head farther north to something north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I suppose it’s possible I’ll endup in a big refugee camp in somewhere like Pennsylvania, update New York or Maine. The dream, of course, would be to get to enjoy some fun new life in New York City. But, alas, the more I think about it, the more I probably will be stuck in a refugee camp.

Anyway, all of that is “hysterical doom shit.” And very, very speculative. It’s at least possible that somehow, magically, we’ll be saved by some sort of Black Swan event or Biden will win, Trump will fail to cause a National Divorce and I can keep trying to sell my first novel.

Of ‘BlueSky’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most annoying aspects of the Trump Era is how radicalized both the Far Right and Far Left have become. What’s worse, all of this is happening in the context of the center simply not existing — you have to pick a side, one way or another.

Anyone who claims to be a “centrist” is a fool. They are, by default, tacitly siding with MAGA because MAGA exploits any time someone refuses to pick a side.

But wait, it gets worse.

Because of the nature of modern politics in America, once you do pick a side, you are forced to defend the dumbest, most radical positions of your side. With all that in mind, let’s address what I’ve experienced on the Twitter clone Bluesky.

Up until recently, the service just seemed like an updated version of the very inward looking WELL service of the 1990s. It was at first invite only and once I got access to it, it seemed very much a place for exiled smug Twitter liberals to sit around and smell their own farts.

But all of that has changed since the start of the war in Gaza. Now, the service is dominated by Far Left radicals who freak the fuck out if you, in any way, quibble with their orthodoxy. They get really mad!

They get so mad that it’s kind of a surreal caricature of what conservatives think anyone who disagrees with them are like. I sometimes feel like I have a better understanding of why MAGA people double and triple down on their fascism whenever anyone calls them out on it.

I recently got into an argument about a comment I made about how part of democracy is the marketplace of ideas where everyone yells at each other until we collectively come to some consensus about what direction the country will take.

When I refused to say what views I might have that don’t fit the Leftist orthodoxy might be, THAT caused heated debate. The more I thought about this particular issue, the more I realized it would be wise to just refuse to be pinned down.

The point is — once you get into that type of argument, the whole thing becomes a no-win situation. It’s a trap. It’s like when a wife asks her husband if her new outfit makes her “look fat.” If you’ve gotten to that point, you’re screwed. There just is no way to admit to something that doesn’t fit the Leftist orthodoxy without THAT being the thing you get yelled at, not the issue that first introduced the subject in the first place.

So. I don’t know. I will continue to use BlueSky, but I’m on a hair trigger when it comes to anything I might believe that might upset the Far Left.

Worse Case Scenario: Trump’s Second Term

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When thinking about what might happen in Trump’s second term, there is a key thing to contemplate: is Trump too dumb and lazy to go full tyrant while still pretending to care about the rule of law?

Is it possible that his political and historic purpose is simply to destroy the United States by totally and completely making the unpreceded move of going full tyrant without giving a shit about anything but staying in power? I only broach this because he repeatedly during his first term seemed to indicate that he was prepared to just extend his time in office without an election because he “deserved it.”

If he did such a thing during his second term, then that would probably be the set up for a revolution / civil type situation that would destroy not only the United States in the near term, but the entire post WW2 liberal order. WW3 would probably happen and billions of people might die specifically because of the actions of one Donald J. Trump.

There is a chance, of course, that somehow, someway, Trump is convinced to press for a Constitutional Convention that would put MAGA Enabling Acts into the document. Doing such a thing would at least keep Trump within the boundaries of the law — even if the law was now extremely fascist.

So, that’s kind of the spectrum we face in a second Trump Administration. On one end, the country collapses into revolution / civil war and chaos and on the other, we become something more like Putin’s Russia. I’m aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment, but all signs are pointing towards something along those lines being our choice.

The Death of Discourse?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of many alarming signs of the decline and fall of the Second American Republic is how the discourse on — pick a subject — has become a blood sport. Just staking out An Opinion on ANYTHING is enough to rile people up.

But let me be more specific — not to sound too Red Pilled, there is a Media Narrative that exists about the world around us. If you have the temerity to believe ANYTHING that doesn’t adhere to that orthodoxy, there is hell to pay.

This most comes into play on subjects like trans rights and anything to do with the culture wars in general. The orthodoxy on trans rights is often so murky and fluid that you don’t even know what it is unless you are Very Online.

Meanwhile, in all my years of life, I’ve never seen anything as controversial as the current war in Gaza. Twitter Leftists have such an absolute orthodoxy that you have to absolutely adhere to that it can really make your head spin. What’s worse, that orthodoxy makes absolutely no sense.

They are so absolute in their views that they apparently would rather have a second Trump term than compromise for the sake of democracy. It’s crazy. Totally and completely bonkers.

I’m reminded of what I’ve read about the corrosive politics found in Weimar Germany right before the Nazis took over. I fear that should MAGA take over again that there will be whole chapters of some future American history book devoted to how fucked up the politics of 2024 were.

Anyway. Good luck, folks. You’ll need it.

The Political Nihilism Of Twitter Leftists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter Leftists have radicalized in just the last 24 hours, since the student protests in New York City were crushed by the NYPD. I understand their anger. But some of the rhetoric that Twitter Leftists have generated in the last day or so is rather overwrought.

They clearly want something that is simply not possible given the metrics of current geopolitics — Biden to embrace their most radical positions in regards to the war in Gaza. This is just not going to happen. And I understand that Twitter Leftists are so frustrated that they suddenly have begun to proclaim that they would rather Trump be president.

But this is political nihilism in the extreme. They are so frustrated that they can’t get what they want, that they have decided to burn everything down. This is a not great, Bob, type situation because we already have the Far Right wanting the same thing.

The idea that anyone — especially a Leftist — would want Trump to be president for any reason boggles my mind. Any Leftist who advocates such a thing clearly has not thought this through. That is the politics of spite.

But, here we are, with a small — but vocal — group of Twitter users bitching and moaning about something that Biden doesn’t even have any control over: the actions of the NYPD.

The Electoral College & Twitter Leftists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The central problem of American politics is the Electoral College. As the nation’s political divisions grow more and more severe, the fact that the Electoral College forces us into a Blue – Red dichotomy becomes a bigger and bigger problem.

If we elected presidents on the basis of the popular vote, then we would have numerous parties to chose from. What would probably happen at times like these is some center-Left party that opposed the Gaza war would begin to gain traction.

Now, I’m assuming this new non-Electoral College system would go something like this — we would have a two-round system with the run-off election for president being between the top two vote getters of the first election.

But we’re stuck with the Electoral College.

So, are in a situation where fucking Twitter Leftists want to burn everything to the ground because of some misguided belief that President Biden is implicated in what has been happening on college campuses across the nation. Twitter Leftists are so upset over what’s happening that they want to indict the whole system…but don’t have any ready solutions.

They are just mad. Sometimes they go so far as to say they would rather people vote for Trump — yikes! — and sometimes they twist themselves into rhetorical pretzels that boil down to, “Well, we should get rid of the Electoral College.”

It’s all a very fucked up situation without any ready solution. There’s just no ready answer.

Jerry Seinfeld & The Fate Of Comedy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I try to be as moderate and empathetic as possible. But sometimes the “woke cancel culture mob” really gets on my fucking nerves. Take, for instance, what’s going on with Jerry Seinfeld and his belief that people being “woke” has caused the demise of comedy.

There is so much wrong with the reaction to this comment — on both sides.

The MAGA Right has glommed onto his observations as a way to confirm their priors. They believe that they can “own the libs” by screaming at the top of their lungs that what they believe HAS to be Right because “even Seinfeld” agrees with us.

Meanwhile, the “woke cancel culture mob” is just as bad. They really are so touchy that they can’t take even the smallest amount of criticism. They are doing everything in their power on social media to “recon” away how Seinfeld is one of the greatest comics of the last 30 odd years.

Now, as for what Seinfeld believes — I don’t know what the truth is. I suspect he has something of a point, but I also think that the economics of comedy have changed drastically in the last few decades to the point that the comedies of the 1970s, 80s and 90s just aren’t economically viable anymore.

Just the advent of streaming itself is enough to throw things out of whack.

I guess I’m just annoyed at how polarized the American political system is. We can’t come to any agreement about anything — not even the fate of comedy — and it is really aggravating.

The Radicalization of Traditionalists Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the 2024 election will be decided because of macro political, historical and demographic trends, barring some black swan event that I can’t predict. As such, I’m inclined to believe Trump is going to win simply because of bad vibes, if nothing else.

Traditionalists are so upset over the browning of America, the “gay agenda” and the secularization of the country that they feel as though they have no choice but to support a fucking tyrant like Trump. They rationalize the dangers of giving Trump a second term by saying, lulz, he was all talk the first time, of course he’ll be all talk the second time.

Yikes.

From personal experience, it definitely seems as though Traditionalists — who are the bedrock of any stable democracy — are so weirded out by the extremes of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright. As such, we’re pretty much fucked.

Having said all that, we also have to admit to ourselves that if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025, that there is a real chance that some pretty unprecedented things might happen — up to and including Trump being deposed in some way. That, in turn would cause a civil war to happen.

Or not. I can’t predict the future.

But the fact remains — late 2024, early 2025 could be up there with the Russian Revolution in terms of jaw dropping, history making events. The key thing is Trump is telegraphing what he wants to do in a second term. As such, I just can’t believe that Trump could go full tyrant without there being some severe consequences.

The United States is just too big, too diverse and has too strong a tradition of democracy for us to just shrug and accept Trump being a tyrant overnight. If he does a “shock and awe” attack on the institutions of the United States there will be consequences for everyone involved.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet. There remains a chance that somehow, someway, we’ll muddle through things like we have done so many times in the past.

But I am worried this time could be different, very worried. And the key thing to look for is how Traditionalists respond when Trump begins to snatch people off the street. Things would have to get REALLY BAD for Traditionalists to sit up and take notice.

If Trump starts to arrest people he doesn’t like, the first thing radicalized Traditionalists will say is Trump is just using “lawfare” against people he doesn’t like, just like Biden supposably did (in their view.) As such, it will be interesting to see how fucking bad things will have to get before Traditionalists begin to question their decision to go all-in on Trump.

I suspect only if it gets personal will they care. They will be Good Germans until they, personally, have to deal with some tyrannical thing Trump has done. THEN they might begin to second guess their decision to support MAGA fascism.

But only then.