Things are pretty quiet at the moment. We’ve had a nice few months of pretty much nothing of note going on. There have been a few blips, but nothing that really made us all sit up and take notice.
It make you wonder what is going to happen.
My fear is, of course, some major Black Swan event is going to happen to upend everything. That’s one of the big differences between, say, South Korea and the United States — while things change all the time in South Korea in the US they stay the same for a long time then everything changes suddenly overnight.
Usually, this happens because of a presidential election.
But, in a sense, we’re still stuck in the post 9/11 era. You might be able to make the case that the election of Trump ended that era and, yet, that change was may only superficial.
I do think that everything is going to change one way or another in late 2024, early 2025, probably because of a combination of so-called Fourth Turning with something akin to a Petite Singularity.
Things just can’t stay so meh forever. History abhors a vacuum, just like nature, and it definitely seems as though we’re all just kind of drifting at the moment.
I have long said that the United States is currently an autocracy without an autocrat. The only thing stopping us from sliding peacefully into Hungary-like autocracy is, well, the fact that Democrats are in power.
Once that changes, that’s all she wrote. We become an autocracy.
This really hit home when I recently had one of my monthly political debates with a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly. They’ve been completely radicalized because of the culture wars and a general sense of being put upon by the “woke cancel culture mob.”
They have an extensive permission structure built out in their minds for various reasons, but to put a fine point on it, they simply hate the vibes and are willing to vote for a fascist like Trump if that means white Christians can have some security in what they feel is a increasingly secular — and gay — America where not enough of those sweet, sweet white babies are being born.
I’m obviously joking and exaggerating, but that is, in a sense what is going on. White Christians don’t like the direction country is going so they latch on things like the price of groceries when what is really going on is they feel weirded out that some women aren’t ashamed of having abortions and gay people becoming more noticeable.
That’s the thing that is so interesting about what’s going on — I get the sense that a lot of white Christians don’t really have a problem with abortion or being gay, but they DO have a problem with having to talk about it. And, of course, they hate how they feel smug Twitter liberals look down on them.
All of this is the culmination of decades of macro trends all coming together at once — The Fourth Turning, if you will.
So here we are. Waiting around for autocracy to come to America. That’s the general trend at the moment — America is heading towards a white Christian ethnostate one way or another.
Of course, the great irony is that because Trump is the vessel for these macro trends that some pretty surreal, unprecended things MIGHT happen in late 2024, early 2025.
Maybe. I can’t predict the future. But the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen. There is a non-zero chance that Trump gets elected and is so fucking bad at being the person responsible for transitioning us into autocracy that some sort of effort to depose him happens. And if that “Glorious Revolution” is successful, then the specter of a civil war is a real possibility because Red States will get mad and begin to leave the Union.
MAGA is now full blown fascism. America is an autocracy without an autocrat. As such, the moment Republicans have power again, all hell will break loose. And the jury is still out as to How Bad Things Will Get.
The political canary in the coalmine is going to be trans people. I struggle to believe that if some future autocrat — Tyrant Trump or someone else — builds out the infrastructure necessary to round up millions of undocumented people that they won’t feel a great deal of temptation to round up trans people, too. And they won’t stop there — next thing you know, Jews will be in the camps, too.
Whenever you start fucking with the nature of citizenship, there is a natural inclination on the part of those doing the fucking to narrow the definition of who is a citizen down to whatever they can get away with.
Now, of course, it just sounds like hysterical doom shit to suggest that MAGA might start to round up trans people and put them in concentration camps along with other “undesirables,” but it’s very easy to imagine MAGA going septic and that very thing happening.
But, at the moment, I just don’t know. There are a lot of scenarios one could think up, I just happen to gravitate towards the most dystopian.
My most recent political conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — was extremely alarming for a number of reasons. This was the first time when it was clear to me that they were so radicalized that they were all-in for the type of Christian Nationalism that Trump and MAGA features.
My relative — who I feel should know better — has established an extensive permission structure for them to vote for the fascist Trump. Now, this relative — who I love dearly — loves to wallow in the culture wars. That’s why they loved Ron “Tiny-D” DeSantis so much.
Now that Tiny-D is out of the picture, they’ve become a hard core Trump supporter. This is a prime example of how Trump the idea is far more potent than Trump the man.
The curious thing about this situation is the energy for my relative’s conversion to MAGA comes from his outrage over the “crisis at the border.” Yes, my relative has bought into the Fox News-constructed outrage over the “woke cancel culture mob” and the “gay agenda,” but, at the core of their support for MAGA is their concern over what’s going on at the border.
What bothers me my relative keeps asking, “Why doesn’t Biden do something?” and I kind of struggle to give any cogent answer. My relative totally ignores my pointing out that Biden “tried to do something” about the border, only to get shot down because Trump wants to run on that crisis.
As such, my intelligent, college educated Traditionalist relative is willing to end 250 years of American democracy because they’ve established in their mind an extensive permission structure based on what they see as Biden’s inability to do anything about the “crisis at the border.”
This is very alarming!
What’s more, when remind my relative about all the tyrannical things that Trump has made very clear he will do given a second term, they totally disregard that we should take Trump both seriously and literally. Given that I’m someone who might very well get rounded up when the Trump-branded camps open…yikes.
And, I suppose, the only Red Line for my relative is, well, me. If Trump snatches me off the street because I won’t shut up about how I think Tyrant Trump is a cocksucker, then, well, my well-meaning relative might be given pause for thought. Of course, it will be tool late, then.
It’s clear that the two sides are beginning to harden their positions to the point that there is a non-zero chance that if Trump loses later this year that his possible demand for a National Divorce to stay out of jail may actually get some traction and, lulz, we have a civil war.
When pressed on this particular scenario, my Traditionalist-now-MAGA relative did not really give me an answer as to what they would do which is a “Not, great, Bob,” type thing.
While my relative may be a lost cause for various reasons, I would suggest Team Biden TRY to explain why they’re not doing more at the border. But it all may be a lulz in the end because Trump could murder someone on TV and he would still be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president.
Jon Stewart remains a curious figure in American politics because, given the logic of the modern political world, he should run for president. He would be the anti-Trump.
Jon Stewart
He has a prove track record of getting shit done when he gets angry — specifically his work when it comes to helping 911 first responders. But it his rant about the dangers of AI tonight that reminded me of how, in a sense, he is a shadow presidential candidate.
In the segment I saw, he was able to clearly articulate what might be the basis of a modern day Luddite movement — the idea that the speed at which AI will be adopted could be so fast that it short circuits the usual “in the end, more jobs are made” idea and we endup with a lot of people out of work in a very abrupt manner.
I have long wondered if this dynamic might lead MAGA to naturally evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that might combine elements of the far Right and far Left. That would, of course, totally re-align the American political system, just like how MAGA did.
But the the fact remains — Jon Stewart would be a very, very strong presidential candidate. There would be a lot of people who would blanch at the idea, of course, because of the horrible experiences we’ve had with Trump, but I think Stewart is clearly so different from Trump that such reservations could be overcome.
It’s highly unlikely that Stewart would ever run for president, of course. There would have to be some Black Swan event to prompt him to do such a thing. But he is definitely someone to keep an eye on going forward.
I like to think of myself as a survivor. I managed to thrive as an expat in South Korea because I paranoid and ask a lot of questions. I like to think a few steps ahead in case the absolute worst happens.
Well, these days, I find myself going to the grocery store and wondering what I will do at some point in the near future when the shelves are bare because of a revolution or civil war. What the fuck am I going to do?
The fact that my Traditionalist relative — whom I love dearly — has clearly been radicalized into being full MAGA only adds to my alarm about the day after tomorrow. Trump as the leader of a fascist movement definitely seems to have considerable momentum behind him, even as Trump the man continues to be a big old doofus.
As I keep saying, one big concern I have is if Trump wins re-election that he will thrash around in such a tyrannical manner in the early days of his administration that even some conservatives may balk at what he is doing. That, in turn, could cause something akin to a Glorious Revolution on the part of Blues, which would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States would get upset that Trump had been deposed.
I know that’s hysterical doom shit at this point, but it’s a scenario I think about way too much.
The ironic thing about all of this is if, say, somehow MAGA Mike Johnson became POTUS, we would slip very peacefully into a full-blown autocracy. Maybe a few thousand smug Twitter liberals would flee the country, but, in general, the system would collapse into a white Christian ethnostate and it would happen without any violence at all.
It’s Trump, specifically, who could cause the collapse of the United States into revolution and or civil war. He’s just so dumb and lazy that he would try to transition the US into an autocracy in such a way that would enrage many, many people who would otherwise just shrug.
But I can’t predict the future. There’s always a risk of some Black Swan event that could throw everything up in the air in some unexpected manner. And there’s always a small chance that Biden will win big enough that should ding-dong Trump start to rant about the need for a National Divorce that no one will listen to him.
It definitely feels like as we enter the 2024 election cycle silly season that we’ve entered a doom spiral. There just doesn’t seem any way — barring some sort of major Black Swan event — for us to avoid Something Bad happening in late 2024, early 2025.
At this point, in spring 2024, it seems the only possible way we avoid some sort of catastrophic political disaster in late 2024, early 2025 is if Biden wins in something akin to a landslide and when Trump starts to scream about the need for a National Divorce to keep him out of jail — everyone ignores him.
That’s it. That’s all I got.
If anything else happens, we’re totally and completely fucked. The country is just too tightly wound for us to make it through the 2024 election without some sort of severe, unpreceded political violence.
I hope I’m wrong. I really, really do. And I can’t predict the future — anything can happen. But I AM alarmed at how batshit insane things already are in our political system and only getting worse.
Holy shit. This weekend was the first time that I felt my far more conservative relative had crossed the Rubicon into pure cut fascism. Now, before I begin, my conservative relatives have been VERY GOOD to me and very gracious to save my sorry ass on a number of occasions.
So, this is not personal. This is just an alarming political observation.
I bring this up because I have a regular monthly political discussion with one of my intelligent, college educated conservative relatives. I have been trying to avoid these conversations of late, but this time we got into it.
The most alarming part of the conversation was that my relative — whom I love dearly — was officially all-in for MAGA and Trump. They continue to have reservations about Trump the man, but they are totally willing to give up their American democratic birthright to the autocratic aspirations of Trump the idea.
It’s all very alarming. When pressed, my conservative relative agreed with me that only something like Trump murdering someone would be a “red line” that would prevent them from supporting him in the 2024 general election.
Now, there is obviously a lot to unpack here.
The key thing that I notice is how similar to 1850s antebellum America the conversation was. Replace “trans rights” or “abortion” with “abolition” and all the arguments on both sides would be identical.
I pressed my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — about the idea of a National Divorce and they did not dismiss the idea out of hand. It seemed as though the idea of smug Twitter liberals talking down to them would determine if they were willing to tear the country asunder or not if, say, Trump lost the 2024 election.
All of this is very much a potential dystopian hellscape. The only glimmer of hope that I could find from the conversation is what my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — my do if all the as of now rhetorical things Trump could do in his second term became a reality.
There is a very small chance that if Trump did, in fact, go full Tyrant on America that that, unto itself, might cause my principled conservative relative to sit up and take notice. That, of course, sucks because we would have to go through the chaos and turmoil of having a full-blown tyrannical president.
I say this because my far more conservative relative simply can not believe that Trump would actually do all the tyrannical things that he very clearly says he wants to do in a second term. They totally dismiss Trump’s autocratic, tyrannical leanings because he wasn’t able to implement his autocratic rhetoric the first go round.
As such, if Trump literally does go full tyrant in 2025 there is a very small possibility that, on principle, my far more conservative relative might balk at such policies. Of course, that won’t help ME much because I could be dead after an ICE agent shoots me because I won’t shut up about how I think Red King Trump is a fucking cocksucker.
All I can say is late 2024, early 2025 could be fucking lit. We could see a series of surreal events not seen since the end of the Civil War.
It will be interesting to see if just as the so-called “Fourth Turning” strikes the United States in late 2024, early 2025, so, too does a technological “Petite Singularity.”
If a company like OpenAI manages to invent AGI, then everything could change very, very quickly. AGI will have a near-instant influence on the economy because many, many jobs will be considered moot by the fucking greedy captains of industry.
It will be interesting to see how things sort out. I continue to be very curious about the intersection of politics and technology going forward. I still believe there is a pretty good chance that MAGA will evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that is against things like AI.
I do continue to believe that we’re in the middle of a vibe shift of some sort that will fully come to fruition — one way or another — in early 2025. I think we’re going to lurch into the future in late 2024 and we’ll all wake up in January – March of 2025 and realize a real sea change in both culture, technology and politics has happened.
It definitely seems as though Diversity Equality & Inclusion (DEI) is now the new “critical race theory” or “woke” in the lexicon of the Right Wing echo chamber. As such, it seems as though all the fucking misogynist, racist people who are Deep Red, will not shut up about DEI.
These people are going to pound the perceived problems with DEI into the minds of anyone who will listen. That’s all they’re going to tall about. And, I can tell you from personal experience that any reference to DEI is red meat to the base of the Republican Party.
My far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — are enraged by the very idea of DEI existing at all. It’s very much similar to trans issues in 2023 that was part of the Gay Scare back then. If you want to catch the attention of a Right Wing base member, you invoke DEI.
As we approach the 2024 political silly season, DEI is going to become a very, very touchy subject to the point that any mention of it will be very, very loaded.
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