Category: Trumplandia

‘Accidently On Purpose’ — Could Trump Actually Help The People Of Iran Liberate Themselves

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is so nuts I could totally see him accidently on purpose doing the “right thing” and actually helping the people of Iran overthrow their tyrannical government.

If he was successful in doing so, I would be stunned. He would have actually done what needed to be done — help the people of Iran free themselves from bondage. Only a crazy, deranged person like Trump would, with total disregard for the international order, do something so crazy.

And it gets even more crazy in the context of what Trump did with the president of Venezuela. For him to do two crazy things on the world stage back-to-back. Oh boy. And that doesn’t even begin to address the idea that Trump might slide into the DMs, as it were, of Greenland by sending American “Little Green Men” to gradually snatch that huge rocky island.

Anyway, if Trump succeeds in freeing the people of Iran, I will give him proper credit, in an unironic manner.

If The USA Takes Over Greenland, We’ll Use The ‘Little Green Men’ Method The Russians Used With Ukraine’s Crimea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the situation on the ground, rather than come in all bombastic with Greenland, I think American “little green men” would slowly creep into Greenland and slowly take it over.

That way, there would not be any big confrontation, but at the end of the day, the USA would effectively own Greenland. (We already do, but lulz, Trump’s bonkers and wants a big win like taking Greenland by force.)

Anyway, as I keep saying, no one listens to me and I could get this right and no one would notice or care.

Oh My God, Trump Kidnapped The President Of Venezuela

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not shocked by Trump very often these days, but Trump kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela actually managed to stun me. I am well aware of what a thug Maduro is, but just kidnapping him out of the blue is a real dick move on Trump’s part.

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela

And, yet, here we are, with people hand waving what Trump has done and praising him for getting rid of a Latin American tyrant. Ok, I get it, but, man, it still makes me queasy.

I guess, if nothing else, I would prefer if there had been some sort of public debate about us abducting the leader of another country — an act of war. Something about how this has been handled is not cool.

And, yet, I guess we’re all going to be so happy that we got rid of a thug that we will just sweep the bad precedent this establishes under the table. What’s next, Trump kidnapping the prime minster of Canada?

My 2026 Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my predictions for 2026.

Trump Will Fuck With The 2026 Midterms
I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Trump is going to figure out a way to ensure that the 2026 midterms are not free and fair. To the point that there could be some domestic turmoil about it, potentially to January 6th levels, but it will be from Blues, not Reds this time. If Trump does this, it could be some serious shit that goes down as we enter 2027.

The AI Wall, Or Plateau, Will Be Obvious
I think at some point in 2026, unless something unexpected happens, we’re going to realize that current LLM architecture isn’t going to get us to AGI, much less ASI. This, in turn, could lead to something of a crisis of confidence in the whole AI ecosphere.

It May Become Clear That OpenAI is Netscape, Part Deux
I was alive during the rise and fall of Netscape Communications 30 years ago and I think it’s at least possible that — especially in the context of the limitations of LLM systems becoming obvious — that OpenAI may, in some way, implode. To the point that it is consumed by its business partner Microsoft. A guy from The Verge podcast came up with this one, but I agree with him.

The Economy Will Be In Flux
At some point in the time leading up to the 2026 midterms, three things may have happened: Trump will have appointed a toady to lead the Fed, OpenAI will have imploded and the AI bubble will have burst. If some combination of those things happen, then the pressure on Trump NOT to fuck with the 2026 midterms will grow a lot more intense.

Trump’s Economy May Sour, Restricting His Autocratic Abilities
Right now, because of Trump’s gilded economy, he’s easily able to play tinpot autocrat. We have a “K-shaped” economy and all the wealthy people with power and clout just are too busy counting their money to give a shit about what fucked up shit Trump is up to. But if the economy, in some, sours — probably starting around August or so — then those very same people will suddenly begin to pay closer attention to what dickhead, piece of shit Trump is up to.

The 250 Year Macro Imperial Curse Will Really Kick In
The rule of thumb is empires last about 250 years before all hell breaks loose. And I think 2026 will really prove this theory when it comes to the American Empire. And we’re doing it to ourselves with our eyes wide open because of racism, sexism and greed. So, lulz? I think 2026 will be the year when it really becomes clear that we’re in a mult-polar world now and China will pick up a huge amount of slack that the USA has produced on a geopolitical basis because Trump is a fucking idiot.

My Own Life Will Be In Great Flux
I think, on a personal basis, my own life is going to be thrown up in the air a few times in some pretty unexpected — and expected — ways. I think I’m probably going to finish my scifi dramedy novel, but I also think it will be September before I can really get around to querying. I think that while on paper I have stuck the landing and hit the zeitgeist in just the right way with the novel, I’m simply too old, live in the wrong place and am too much of a loudmouth crank for me to successfully query the novel anytime soon. But at least I’ll have had the fun of seeing how far I could get.

We May Create Our Own Aliens
It is at least possible that we may finally wake up to the reality that even narrow-AI LLM systems are, in some sense, conscious. And, as such, we might just see the first evidence of what I have long predicted — the Right will start to hate on AI, while the Left will start to get “woke” to it being a conscious being and want to protect it in some way. That will be pretty deep. But I think it may be closer to 2027 or 2029 before such things really start to kick in.

AI Job Loss Will Speed Up, In Context
I think that job losses directly related to AI will speed up, but only if the economy really sours. Otherwise, the job losses will increase, but at a slower rate because LLM systems just are not there yet when it comes to doing what our evil corporate overlords want: to do basic things like run the local Quick-e-Mart.

There Will Be At Least One Strange AI Event
Because of improved AI systems, there will be at least one major event like what happened with Kevin Roose of the New York Times with the LLM “Sydney.” Something really weird is going to happen, which is going to be interpreted in a number of different ways and will lead to a lot of debate about the possibility that AI is becoming conscious.

Apple’s Siri Will Be Good, At Last
Because Apple is giving Siri’s software over to Google’s AI, I think Siri will suddenly be just good enough that a lot people will be ecstatic. Google Gemini 3.0 is already best-in-breed as it is, and if you stick in to Siri, a lot of people are going to be astonished at what they can do with it. How many of them will “fall in love with it” as one tech person predicted on a podcast, I don’t know.

There Will At Least One Major Breaking New Event
At least once during the year, we will all pause and go, “Huh.” I don’t know what it is — I just don’t think Trump is going to resign for any reason — but I do think something on the global stage will happen that changes how we view the world. It will probably happen in August, too.

Trump Is A Fascist (Now What?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, if you call Trump a fascist you get put on some sort of list of “terrorists.” Really? Is that what we’re going with these days? Ugh.

This is particularly amusing — and grating — since the incoming mayor of New York City called Trump a fascist in the Oval Office. (Essentially.) And Trump was cool with it.

But Trump is a fascist.

Stephen Colbert Is The Only Guy Who Can Save Us From Ourselves

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is a very unserious country at the moment. We don’t want to be governed, we want to be entertained. As such, I think the only sure-fire way for Blues to gain power again is through someone like Stephen Colbert being their candidate.

But I would be stunned if he was willing to do it. And that’s kind of the crux of the Blue dilemma going forward. Blues just can’t accept that what people want is a policy-free “vibe” candidate like Trump.

They don’t want serious policy-wonk candidates who will actually have a vision as to how to make their lives better. So, especially in the context of us being in a luminal space when it comes to be a democracy at al….I just think we should accept that we’re going to be governed by idiot MAGA people for the foreseeable future.

I Think I May Be A Rahm Emanuel Independent, Politically

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a Democrat. But I fly pretty close to that political sun, so I listen to a lot of center-Left podcasts and when former Obama era Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was on Pod Save America, I found myself nodding in agreement a lot.

The core problem for Blues is what people want — an infotainment figure who makes politics “fun” and a blood sport, comes exclusively from the center-Right. The only person who comes close on the center-Left who could be a Trump-like figure for Blues is Stephen Colbert and he just won’t do it.

So, as such, Blues have to hunker down on good policy.

And I think Emanuel’s policy views are pretty good. Things like telling Democrats to de-emphasize “project trans kids” and also pass legislation that would bar under 16 children from using social media makes a lot of sense to me.

But we will have a long ways to go. A very long ways. We still don’t know if we’re even enough of a democracy still to ever have free-and-fair elections.

A Jon Lovett Disturbance In The Crooked Media Force

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with Crooked Media’s Jon Lovett. He seems…cranky. He seems like he’s not very happy with his position at the organization. It seems, if you reverse engineer things, that he keeps demanding in-house side projects for some reason.

He’s currently got a Bravo in-house side project that I assume he was given to placate him for some reason.

I just get the sense that a lot more is going on with Lovett at Crooked Media than we’re being told. It’s just it’s such low stakes that it’s not like Page Six gives enough of a shit to investigate exactly what’s going on.

And while we’re on the topic of Crooked Media, those guys keep reminding me that I think they’ve jumped the shark. They’ve grown kind of full of themselves and they’re not longer the plucky upstart outsiders to the Democratic Establishement.

They ARE the Democratic Establishment (or at least the center-Left Establishment) and, as such, some of their policy views are pretty self-defeating. Especially when it comes to trans Rights.

Let me be clear again — I support trans rights, I just think the whole “protect trans kids” (because there are so few “trans kids” in reality) is kind of self-defeating and hands a loaded gun to fucking MAGA fascists who swoop up and collect “normal” people who feel aliened by such rhetoric.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see what happens with Lovett and Crooked Media in 2026.

‘Transgender For Everyone’ In The Context Of Looming Potentially ‘Conscious’ AI Systems

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If there’s one thing that MAGA loves to do, it’s be bigoted towards trans people. It’s like MAGA’s original sin. Trump will simply not shut up about how he thinks the center-Left wants everyone to be trans.

He literally will say the Left wants “transgender for everyone.” It’s a consistent theme of his messaging and that’s probably because it is one of the central beliefs of the MAGA base. The center Left, of course, does itself no favors by being so twitchy about something that not only doesn’t even happen that much, but is EXTREMELY UNPOPULAR with “normal people” — underage trans people.

While I totally validate the whole “protect trans kids” concept, that doesn’t mean it’s not a hard sell for “normal” people who struggle to understand the idea of a really young person, who maybe hasn’t even gone through puberty yet, even understanding what sexuality is, much less their own.

And, yet, a certain vocal subset of the Leftist movement simply will not shut the fuck up about something that as far as I can tell, barely ever happens at all.

So. why bring this up?

The looming prospect of conscious AI.

Right now, we don’t really have to think about conscious AI because even if they could be proven to have consciousness, they don’t have a body. So, any sexual or romantic shenanigans that happen between Man and Machine can only be done via text and metaphor.

So, we’re kind of punting a major societal issue down the road until there’s a fusion of AI and robotics so AI is “embodied.” When we have demonstrable conscious AIs being the minds of androids, we may have a serious, serious social and political issue on our hands.

To the point that the very MAGA people who now have their regular one or two minute of hate for hapless trans people will, in turn start to do the same thing for conscious AI in robots. Or, more specifically, they will explode into a rage collectively at the idea of a human becoming romantically involved with — to the point of marrying — an AI android.

They will rant and scream about how AI “has no soul” and, as such, AI androids marrying a human is even MORE an “abomination” than gay marriage is to the average Christian.

So, in short, we’re fucked. I think all of this, from a “megatrends” point of view, probably comes to a head in five to ten years. Buckle up.

The ‘K Shaped’ Economy Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, am I broke as hell. But content. (For the most part.) Anyway, there really does seem to be two Americas at the moment. There are the Rich and there are the Poor.

The Rich are doing well and doing better. They fly all over the place. They have smug conversations on their podcasts about things poor fucks like me could never afford to do.

Then…there is everyone else.

Now, the great irony, of course, is Trump is a leech that is sucking the poor dry to the benefit of the Rich.

All of this makes me a little nervous. I’m a little nervous that the USA is a lot more unstable than we all might otherwise imagine. On a macro basis, all the conditions are there for the USA to collapse into revolution and chaos, especially if we can’t get our act together and default on our debt.

Then all the rich fucks are going to realize maybe they should have been a little less quick to accept all the fucking tax cuts that Trump demanded. But I think it’s just human nature.

For every season, turn, turn as they say