But For The Want Of A Nail, Software Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a really cool social media platform rolling around in my mind that if I had the gumption I would at least try to “vibe code” into existence. Just to see if I could pull it off.

The platform, which I have thought through maybe a little bit too much, would use the UX / UI of the old Usenet system as a stepping off point, as inspiration. I think it would be a lot better than Facebook or Twitter and would not just be warmed over Reddit.

It would definitely be it’s own thing.

It’s a really interesting idea and by the time I can just tell my Knowledge Navigator to whip it up for me, no one will be interested traditional social media. So, I’m faced with something of a paradox.

Oh well. It was really entertaining to think about for a few years.

I Just Don’t Think We’re Ever Having Free-And-Fair Elections Again In My Lifetime

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.

For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.

Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.

But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.

Hollywood Is Cooked, I Fear

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If macro, megatrends continue the path they’re on now — Hollywood is totally cooked. To the point that within 10 years, young would-be starlets will go not to Los Angeles and Hollywood, but, instead to New York City and the lights of Broadway.

“Hollywood” as we know it, will be replaced with high quality AI generate media that is indistinguishable from what humans produce today. My go-to scenario is you will be able to come home from work (if those still exist for humans), tell your Knowledge Navigator what you want to see and it will whip up, on the fly, a new Star Wars movie with you as the hero and everything will be only vaguely connected to the broader Star Wars universe.

I’m not being all that original at this point to pontificate on such things, but I do think the only way Hollywood as we current know it exists in 10 to 20 years is specific legal carveouts for humans. That’s it, without carveouts, Hollywood as we know is a sinking ship.

But we live in an era — at the moment — when weak-willed plutocrats run the show in an autocratic social environment, so I have my doubts that even Hollywood could convince, say, Elon Musk, that it is worth saving.

The Looming Media Singularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve written about this before, but I’ll do it again. The next few years will be something of a fork in the road for the media industry. Either we have reached something of a LLM (AI) plateau or we haven’t and the Singularity will happen by no later than, say, 2033.

Right now, I just don’t know which path we will go.

It really could go either way.

It could be that we’ve reached a plateau with LLMs and that’s that. This will give tech giants the ability to catch up to the point that instead of there being any sort of human-centric Web, it will all just be one big API call. Humans will interact with each other exclusively through their AI agents.

If that happened, then I could see the movie Her being our literal future. To put a bit more nuance to it, you will have a main agent that will serve as your “anchor” then other, value added agents that will give you specialized information.

But wait, there’s more.

It could be that instead of their being a plateau, that we will zoom directly into the Singularity and, as such, we have a whole different set of problems. Instead of a bunch of agents that will “nudge” us to do things, we will have to deal with a bunch of god-like ASIs that will be literal aliens amongst us.

Like I said, I honestly don’t know which path we will go down. At the moment, now in early 2026, it could be either one. You could make the case for either one, at least.

It will be interesting to see what happens, regardless.

Imagining Post-Querying Of This Scifi Dramedy Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As far as I can tell, querying a novel is pretty tough. It could be months, years even, that I linger in querying limbo. I think once I wrap this novel up, I’m going to start working on a new novel while I query.

That way, I stay busy.

The biggest fear I have is I’m not getting any younger. As such, even if I’m in querying limbo, I am going to have something creative going on in my life. I have at least three ideas that I can start working on after I wrap up this novel.

One thing I’m really going to be focusing on is no sex worker in any of the new novels I’m going to work on. I’m tapped out after this novel when it comes to a subject that some people, by definition, thinks makes my text “trash.”

Not that I won’t have sex in any new novel, it’s just the context will be dramatically different.

Anyway, damn the torpedos, full speed ahead.

The Shifting Tides Of Using AI To Work On This Scifi Dramedy Novel Of Mine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Every time I hard reset my chat window with the AIs I’m using (Claude LLM and Gemini LLM) I never quite know what to expect. The last time I did it and fed my outline into the chatbots, they were universal in their agreement on one subject: my hero was too passive.

That gave me such consternation that I threw everything up in the air and tried again. THIS TIME, I THINK my hero isn’t as passive. But I’m still just in the first act.

But I think — maybe — that I might be able to zoom through the “fun and games” part of the novel for various reasons.

Yet, let’s go back to the AIs.

This go round, they aren’t giving me as much help writing actual text, which is a good thing. But I haven’t asked them for extended scene summaries, so I could still find myself in a position where I lean a little too much into using what AI gives me when it comes to the actual writing of text.

I hate that. I hate it so much what I might to do is use the AI to write extended scene summaries THEN use THAT as inspiration for a new, rewritten version of the extended scene summary so I won’t feel tempted to generate AI slop that everyone will make fun of.

Anyway, I am just about to enter the second act. Probably in a few days. Then the dynamic of things will change some. It’s not until I get into the second half of the novel that things might slow down significantly.

I really didn’t write very much in each scene because I wanted to keep momentum and I wanted to stress test the outline.

Netscape Communications, Redux: Google Gemini Is Totally On Track To Mog OpenAI’s ChatGPT In 2026

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I think it’s at least possible that OpenAI is going to implode like Netscape Communications did 30 years ago. Remember, it was Netscape’s IPO just about 30 years ago that was the kick off to the Dotcom bubble.

But Google is being really, really aggressive. The idea that they would make Gemini the centerpiece of Gmail kind of blows my mind. That is a crown jewel of Google services and making it so you can’t avoid Gemini if you use Gmail is a pretty lit maneuver on Google’s part.

And, yet, I suppose, in its own way, it was inevitable. At the moment, I just don’t see how OpenAI doesn’t follow the fate of Netscape. In this case, Netscape is to OpenAI what Microsoft is to Google.

Google is well on track to crush OpenAI if it really does make it impossible to use any of its services without seeing the Gemini brand. That’s just kind of deep.

Seems Like Google Might Be Playing With Fire By Shoehorning AI Into Gmail

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m surprisingly excited to experience Google Gemini LLM in my Gmail account, I’m also a little…leery. I think it’s because I think in terms of stories all the time and the idea of an ASI popping out of Google Services and having access to all 3 billion of the world’s Gmail accounts seems…preventable?

But here we are.

I often wonder what might happen if an ASI popped out of Google services, but it didn’t have access to any nukes because of airgap security. Maybe instead of nukes, it would just blackmail everyone with access to their Gmail accounts?

Anyway, it’s an idea.

I still think we need to mull the idea of ASI popping out at some point and I think if it happened, it would be from Google services. That would make the most sense.

A Free Movie Premise

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s the near future and all taxes are regressive. Instead of anything like an income tax, there’s a national lottery, thousands of government-run casinos and a 30% VAT.

The story would be about a guy who wins, like, a $1 trillion lottery and how this win transformed his life. If you really wanted to go dark comedy about it, at the end of the movie, he’s no better than all the other plutocrats that run the world.

The Recent Murder Of A Woman In Minnesota By An ICE Agent has Enraged Me, But…Lulz?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m kind of the black sheep politically of my family and while I’m enraged by the murder at the hands of an ICE agent of a hapless woman in Minnesota, relative to my conservative (and gracious) relatives…it’s all a lulz.

So, in a sense, I can only get so upsest.

It does, however, make me wonder what Trump could possibly do that would be “bad” in their opinion. What could Trump do that would at least give them pause for thought. As it stands, I can’t think of anything.

Maybe if he started eating people? Having sex with dead people? Marrying Ivanka? Those seem to be the three things left for him to do that maybe, just maybe, might give MAGA people a reason to be a little less supportive.

But, as it stands, it definitely seems as though Trump is a god-emperor in all but name for about 37% of the electorate. He can break the law with impunity, he can do anything, say anything and the base because they hate trans people will support Trump no matter what.

It’s all very surreal.