Tag: Autocratic America

‘Flughazi’ & The Rise of American Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Republicans have already telegraphed their intentions for Dr. Fauchi. The moment they are swept into power in 2023, all their going to do is drag him in front of every possible committee to yell at him. In fact, the only thing that will stop them from just forcing him to testify at every possible turn will be their efforts to impeach both Biden and Harris.

It’s shit like this that gives one pause for thought.

Republicans are so craven, so fascist in their inclinations that I have begun to question if they will ever let go of power, any power that they get once they have it going forward. We have to take their fasciation with Russia seriously — they really do want to turn the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state like Russia.

Democrats are just too limp wristed, to beholden to staying within conventional wisdom and trying to find some sort of bi-partisanship. If I had my way, Democrats would get woke and take the vicious nature of Republicans at face value. I’m aware that there’s a huge downside to this — once BOTH sides fight dirty, then politics collapses and you, well, uhhh, fight things out through a force of arms.

Let me put it another way — it seems obvious to me that we’re lurching towards an existential choice of autocracy or civil war. I would much rather go down fighting — if Republicans are determined to destroy everything in an effort to establish white minority rule, then we should at least be prepared to make it as difficult as possible for them to do it.

But in the near term, Republicans are going to wallow in their new narrative that the Deep State and Dr. Fauchi released COVID19 from the Wuhan Lab specifically to bring down Trump. I get the sense that some pretty mainstream Republican media outlets essentially imply this already. It will be all we hear about once MAGA Republicans control Congress again.

The fact that Trump’s incompetency directly lead to 500,000 additional, unnecessary COVID19 deaths will be a lulz to them.

Known Unknowns Of Trump’s Belief He Will Be ‘Reinstated’ By August


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have gamed out in pretty explicit detail on this blog my fears about what might happen this year should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona. It doesn’t matter that the whole thing is a fraud and a sham done to further Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — all he needs is a win, any win and he will hysterically say he is still “really” president.

Oh, now take a deep breath.

The crux of the crisis we may be facing is…then what? Trump’s popularity outside of the violent MAGA personality cult is seemingly at a historic low. And, yet, even at this nadir, Trump’s devotees are still a solid 20-30% of the electorate. Given that political science tells us it only takes an organized 5% of the population to take over a country, if Trump really leans into his bonkers belief that he has to be reinstated, well, we could be fucked.

Logically, Trump taking the sham Cyber Ninjas “win” and running with it to make surreal declarations about his return to the presidency would have him laughed off the public state. Or, at least, would be ignored to the point that the only place he can rant about it in public is OAN, NewsMax or FOX News. And, yet, this is Trump we’re talking about.

The Republican Establishment lives in abject fear of Trump because they’re afraid that if they don’t kowtow to him, he will bolt the party, taking a huge chunk of the Republican Party with him. As such, his hold over the Republican Party is near Hitler over Germany in early 1945 levels. It’s very easy to imagine that Trump might pull off one last hat trick and get elected Republicans across the country to entertain his insane rantings to the point that they convene some sort of conventions to study the idea of “nullifying” the Biden Administration.

Or something. Whatever method they picked, it would happen spontaneously and, at first at least, be done to “own the libs” and provoke a lot of ridicule from said libs. My fear is, all of this will turn pretty serious — and dark — pretty soon when suddenly what started off as a joke turns into a secession crisis.

As an aside, this does make one wonder which state might be the first to actually jump off the cliff for Trump and attempt to secede from the Union. There are so many to choose from. South Carolina seems the one to have some sort of historical reason for doing it for obvious reasons. But, of course, its large minority population would never stand for it. Then there’s Texas, which likes to think it has one foot out the door already. But while hysterical Texas Republicans talk a good game, the state is shifting blue too fast and it’s difficult for me to imagine them actually pulling it off. That leaves the small population, lily white plains states. I could see maybe Montana, Idaho, Montana or South Dakota being the state to break that particular glass.

And now we come to the part I don’t know what to expect — is it even possible that MAGA will “cross the Rubicon” and follow the Dear Leader towards the path of actual disunion?

That very important element of this dystopian hellscape scenario I simply can’t figure out. It’s possible, I guess, that Trump will finally saunter into political irrelevance when he demands he be “reinstated” or the Biden Administration be “nullified” and…nothing happens. Or, put another way, Trump’s power outside the MAGA base evaporates when this happens. Meanwhile, within the base, the fact that this didn’t happen will be see as yet another grievance to be thrown onto the funeral pyre.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way. Which, unto itself, is rather dark and disturbing. When the richest, most powerful country in the world has a 50/50 chance of a severe political crisis within days or weeks, that does tend to make one sit up and take notice.

‘Stop Being Poor’ — MAGA’s Views On Poverty Are Bonkers


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s becoming clear to me that the political divisions in the United States are hardening. I say this because those times I’ve spoken to MAGA people of late, I realize I’m wasting my energy. They have their orthodoxly, and I have mine.

But, sometimes, I have to vent. Sometimes, their augments are so batshit bonkers that I have to write about them.

Recently, I saw a middle class MAGA person give the spicy hot take that said, essentially, that poor people in the United States are ungrateful mooches. They should be grateful that the meager life they live as a poor person in a First World nation is better than a rich person in a Third World country. Or, actually, if I recall correctly, the actual argument was poor people in the United States are making more than a lot of rich people in Third World countries.

The stupid, it burns.

This type of thinking is so goddamn stupid that I can only guess that it comes from when MAGA only talk to people who agree with them. This line of reasoning conflates things so badly and is so poorly thought out that it really fucking grates on my nerves.

You see, there’s this thing called the cost of living. And just because you are making a certain amount of money on government assistance in the United States and that that would be some sort of extravagant life elsewhere, that doesn’t mean that it’s any easer to feed yourself where the fuck you are.

Idiots!

And, yet, trying to point any of this out to MAGA people is a waste of time. Most of MAGA’s political arguments are little more than grunts mixed with a shit tone of self-serving rationalization.

Pondering The MAGA Desire To ‘Just Be Left Alone’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A recurring theme whenever I talk to MAGA people is their desire to “just be left alone.” Given how willing they are otherwise to embrace autocracy — which will definitely not just leave them alone, I struggle to understand what they’re really talking about. What, exactly, do they mean by the idea of “just being left alone.”

Under our current liberal democracy, who is not leaving them alone?

It’s this type of abstract fear on the part of MAGA that eats away at me. One reason this is so is FOX News and Trump really lean into this fear. They promise MAGA people that if only they support The Dear Leader, that they will stop the evil liberal-progressive forces that will mess with them.

I guess if I wrote for Vox, I would be smart enough to figure this out. I know this sentiment is some sort of MAGA code for a specific situation, but I still can’t figure out what they really mean. Maybe what they’re talking about is how they have a different interpretation of the social contract than non-MAGA people. Maybe they see “just being left alone” to mean the right to be openly racist, bigoted and misogynistic?

But I fear that doesn’t really even properly express what’s going on. We all want to just be left alone, regardless of political leanings, and yet I see that freedom as something we already have and MAGA sees it so currently imperiled that they would burn the country to the ground and install an autocrat to defend it.

Why The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Audit Could Be A Royal Clusterfuck


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m almost always wrong. I kind of got COVID19 right, but I wildly over estimated how deadly it would be. This happen, in large part, because I misjudged things from how hysterical the Chinese government was at the time it first popped out.

Anyway, having said that, the conditions are there, at least, for the Cyber Ninjas recount of Arizona votes to set off a cascading series of events that may lead to a severe political crisis in the United States by, say, August. (Or whenever they get done.)

I say this because Trump is setting expectations among the MAGA faithful in a very dangerous, corrosive manner. While Trump’s popularity has faded significantly with the general public, he still has absolute power over the Republican Party. As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where Cyber Ninjas “proves” that he “won” Arizona and Trump takes this one fake victory in one state and begins to rant hysterically about how this “proves” that he has to be reinstated in the August-September timeframe.

I only pick August-September because August is a shitty month and also we’re coming up on the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

Anyhoo, this is where I just don’t know what is going to happen. It could really go either way. This “victory” could become nothing more than just another overheated FOX News talking point — or it could be the stepping off point to something far more ominous. As I keep writing, I could imagine Trump’s nuts rhetoric being taken both seriously and literally by MAGA state legisatures and they convene conventions to study the “nullificaton” of the Biden Adminstration.

These conventions turn into secessionist conventions….and away we go. But I don’t know. I just don’t know. It all could be just a bid dud and we get to enjoy hot girl summer. That is, of course, until next year when Republicans will do everything in their power to make it impossible for Democrats to keep control of Congress.

A Theory About Why Democrats Are So Bad At Defending The Republic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party is now a “violent cult,” and, as such, they’re hell bent on an existential level, on forcing us to the breaking point. The Republican Party is involved in an extended, existential power grab. A lot of people like me are looking at the actions of the Democratic Party and struggle to understand why they’re so limp wristed.

A lot is going on as to why this is the case. One is, as the Republican Party grows more deranged and alienates people, the people the Democrats represent are large and diverse. This makes it more difficult for Democrats to have a cohesive, potent counter-message to Republicans who have an entire propaganda infrastructure designed to tell their faithful what to think at any particular moment.

But, I also think on a systemic level that Democrats know that if they play dirty like the Republicans that such behavior will only accelerate our current drift towards the existential choice of civil war or autocracy. Democratic leaders would rather delay the inevitable by playing dead than risk forcing the issue sooner than it would happen anyway. So, I guess, in a sense, Democrats are engaging in a form of political appeasement.

I don’t have a ready answer for that. The reason — I hate violence and it’s not like I want a civil war, either. And, yet, there’s a part of me that would rather we at least put up a fight against the autocratic leanings of Republicans. But I’m gradually coming to believe that the center-Left just doesn’t have it in them to do what is necessary to stop the United States from slipping into autocratic managed democracy.

In the end, MAGA Republicans are going to be just too much for people who believe in “the American way’ of liberal democracy. ICE will be weaponized and I’m going to get pushed out a window.

But no fate but what we make, as they say, so, lulz, who knows?

Sydney Powell, Cyber Ninjas’ Arizona Recount & The Prospect Of Second Civil War Caused By A Nullification Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The bolts continue to grow loose on the United States’ government. We have professional crazy personal Sydney Powell ranting about how Trump should be “reinstated” at the same time that Cyber Ninjas continue to work towards what seems to be their obvious goal of “proving” Trump won Arizona.

Now, as I keep saying, what makes all of this unnerving is, at this point, it could go either way. It could be that I’m really stretching to believe that should Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump won Arizona that that might be enough to get a number of MAGA state legislatures to convene conventions to weigh the practicality of “nullifying” the Biden Administration. These conventions could, in turn, become secession conventions once it becomes clear that ding-dong Trump’s ideas about nullification are, well, just stupid.

It could be all that happens is the Cyber Ninja results becoming nothing more than a talking point for MAGA thought leaders, but otherwise won’t mean anything at all. Republicans could just keep recounting various states over and over again and it won’t be until January 2025 that we have to worry about the real nullification crisis — this time sparked by a MAGA controlled Congress being unwilling to certify Biden’s win.

The only reason why I’m uneasy is it’s very easy to imagine the same dynamic that happened on January 6th happening again — only this time on a national level. Trump and other dipshit Republicans will rant about the need to nullify the Biden Administration — and then won’t know what to do when MAGA state legislatures take them both seriously and literally.

But, again, I could be really miscalculating things. It could be, thankfully, a big old dud. I honestly can’t tell what is going to happen right now.

The Twitter ‘Resistance’ Movement Needs To Grow The Fuck Up


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most fucking annoying things on Twitter, other than people begging for followers and asking stupid questions, has got to be when well meaning busybodies talk about all their “resistance” friends.

Fuck that.

The thing I’ve learned since 2017 is Twitter “resistance” to MAGA is completely value free. It just doesn’t mean anything. I’ve grown to believe that at some point between now and January 2025, MAGA is going to make a serious power grab to the point that we either become a white Christian ethno state like Russia, or there’s a civil war.

If the former happens, all you have to do is take one look at the state of the “resistance” in Putin’s Russia to know people having fits on Twitter won’t mean squat. All a President Pompeo or Cotton, or Hawley has to do is flip a switch and the ICE infrastructure is weaponized…and people like me start getting pushed out of windows.

You come preen all the like on Twitter about how some interview “devastated” this or that well known MAGA dipshit, but when the autocracy comes…you had better put your big boy pants on. At some point after the MAGA autocracy is established, you’re going to face real-life consequences for “resisting” the autocracy. And from what I can tell of the current Twitter “resistance” ranks, I don’t have a lot of faith that these self-avowed resisters will be up to the task. They have families, and careers and or whatever. Most of them come off as elderly liberal Boomers…and they’re not exactly what is needed as the core of a French Resistance-type group.

So, like, put up or shut up idiots. Be prepared to risk things in the real world that are important to you or shut the fuck up.

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love America’s Coming Existential Political Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate violence. I really, really hate guns and violence. And, yet, I’m not an idiot — it’s pretty obvious that Republicans have come a bloodthirsty cult, hell bent on turning the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state like Russia.

But I’m still not a violent person, so there must be something else one can do in preperation for the very real prospect of an existential political crisis likes of which we’ve not seen since the fall of 1860. For me, the simple answer is one of expectations. Do not rely upon the idea that something that should otherwise be a basic assumption — the person with the most votes, wins — is what is going to happen.

The problem with that assumption in modern America is manifold. First, Republicans are actively making it as difficult as possible to vote. Second, even if Democrats do manage to get the most votes, Republicans are have made it clear that they won’t believe it and will do everything in their power to nullify the results.

As such, those of us who still believe in liberal democracy face an issue of expectations. When the nullification crisis finally happens, that is going to be when we finally have the existential question before us that I keep talking about on this blog: autocracy or civil war.

The specifics of this clusterfuck are still too far off to be mapped out, but I do think if you have the means you need to two things: buy a passport and make sure you live in a state that jibes with your political views. The thing about an actual civil war is while they open up a lot of opportunities to fix systemic problems — they’re fucking scary as hell and there are no assurances that your side will win.

The original American Civil War was very much a touch-and-go event for the North until, say, Gettysburg. Even though the North had the population and economy, for years into the battle it lacked the political will to do what was necessary to win the war. So, too, the augment could be made that Blue States, despite having bigger economies, more cohesive polities and more concentrated populations may collectively shrug if MAGA sizes control via nullification and we become an autocratic managed democracy.

I feel very much as though I’m someone living in America about 1859 — everyone knows Something Bad is going to happen in a few years, but the details are still to be worked out. This is when I point out the old quip about how people go bankrupt, “gradually then all at once.”

That’s my fear with the United States. Things are going to obviously be unstable for years and then…whammo….we’re going to face the prospect of either civil war or autocracy. It’s going to happen very quickly and without any notice to such an extent that MAGA Republicans — who apparently constantly have political violence on the brain — will take advance of their ability to do some shock and awe against Blue States.

This all becomes very muddled very quickly because I have no idea of the specifics of this existential crisis — just that all signs point to it happening at some point between now and January 2025.

But the point is — be prepared for significant political turbulence in the United States in the coming years. The type where heroes will be made and cowards will be shamed. Good luck.

Norm Ornstein On Deep State Radio Is Right: The Republican Party Is A Violent Cult


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the political metrics in the United States are pointing towards a very dark future between now and January 2025. In fact, it’s not so much a question of if, but when, we face a very stark choice: autocracy or civil war.

So when I heard Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute lay out the same arguments that I have been ranting about on this blog for months now, it took me aback a little bit — I’m not the only one to thinks we better enjoy this quiet before the storm.

The only thing that continues to frustrate me is not enough Blue Check liberals on Twitter are taking these cold hard metrics and then asking what the implications of them are. I mean, what does it mean, as Ornstein says, that the Republican Party is now a “violent cult.” How do we prepare for that going forward.

Rather than just noting this ominous development in the public Twitter lyceum why don’t the nattering nabobs of negativism start to figure out what we are supposed to do about it.

This is when I wish I was smart enough to write for VOX, or New York Magazine or even The New Yorker. It would be nice if liberal-progressive thought leaders could come up with some sort of plan of action like they did before the 2020 election. The 2024 election has the potential to be far worse than the 2020 election because the likelihood of violence is significantly greater.

Tragically, just thinking off the top of my head, the only thing I can think of as to how to respond to the Republican “violent cult” is to be prepared to fight dirty just like they do. Or, put another way, we have to recalibrate our views of the Republican Party. They are no longer one of the two major parties in the United States, they are a violent cult hellbent on destroying our liberal democracy one way or another. We have to be prepared to call their bluff in a way we haven’t since 1861.

I hate even having to entertain such a drastic idea, but the only reason I am is, well, the Republican Party is a violent cult. We can’t pretend that they’re a normal political organization anymore. They’re equal to American Slave Power of the 19th Century.

God help us all.