Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

All The Conditions Exist For A Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that seems to elude most American political observers — except for Frank Luntz of all people — is the rise of Trump is a symptom of severe, existential structural problems with the United States. The Cult of Trump is based the “economic insecurity” of white people who are in love with the “idea” of Trump.

White (male) Christians can feel cultural and political power slipping away from them and, as such, they see ding-dong Trump as an avatar, a vessel for their rage. At this point, their attachment to Trump is so white hot, so absolute that there is literally nothing the man could do that would lessen their affinity for him.

With all of this in mind, the thing I’m worry about is what happens if something amazing happens and Trump actually manages to lose the 2024 election. Way too many people who should know better seem to think we’ll just dust ourselves off and wait until the next presidential election.

America, the sole hyperpower in the world, seems primed and ready for a National Divorce if Trump loses and a “Resistance Revolution” if he wins. All of this is on a macro scale. And, as I’ve mentioned before, the issue how willing each side is actually willing to pull the trigger if they feel they have no recourse but to turn to political violence.

I hate violence, but I’m growing more and more alarmed that America faces something of a spectrum. On one end, we have a Blue Revolution because Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues manage to find their guts and do something about it and on the other end of the spectrum Reds grow enraged when Trump loses and they start to pull out of the Union.

There is a lot I just can’t game out.

There are too many known unknowns. As I keep saying, the old adage is one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once. And so SOMETHING is going to happen as a part of the 2024 election. I just don’t know what. I suppose it’s possible that we might punt our problems down the road another four years like we did in 2020, but I have serious doubts.

It seems as though we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I continue to believe that we’re just going to slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi autocratic state. The people who might spearhead any sort of “Blue Revolution” will be too busy using their second passports to flee to Europe to worry about us Poors who will be stuck with a weaponized ICE.

But, again. I just don’t know. It really could go either way at this point.

Donald Trump Needs To Go To Jail (But)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump continues to bend the very fabric of America society, politics and law to his idiotic, asinine will. For my part, I’m just pleased that Trump has found himself in a shit ton of legal trouble, even if politically he’s still riding high. I continue to believe America has, on a macro sale, given up. We’re careening towards a historic, existential choice in 2024 one that will either see us turn into an autocracy or have a civil war / revolution.

I know that sounds like hysterical doom shit, but I struggle to imagine how we manage to punt some severe, structural problems down the road another four years. But, I suppose, it’s possible.

I do find myself thinking a lot these days about what would happen Trump was thrown in jail for violating the terms of his release while awaiting trial. On one hand, doing so would finally force some accountability on ding-dong Trump. On the other, however, I fear that doing so would only give Trump even more political momentum.

It’s a very tricky situation with no ready answer.

And it all plays into what a dire situation we find ourselves in as a nation. I continue to contemplate how likely it is we may have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) depending on who wins the 2024 election. At the moment, it seems we’re just going to slip peaceful into a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

But 2024 is still too far out. There some basic things we just don’t know. We don’t know who the two nominees will be and we don’t know how far along the numerous Trump trials will be as we’re heading to the polls. And, what’s more, we also don’t know things like how the economy or Biden’s age might factor in.

So, it seems as though we’re just going to have to wait and see. There’s no much we can do but just wait to see if my worst fears come true, or if we somehow manage to avoid them.

I’m At A Loss As To What To Expect In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing at the forefront of my mind is not any risk of a repeat of the January 6th Insurrection, but, rather something far more dire. The Republican Party has totally gone off the reservation — it’s now nothing short of fascist. As such, the two most likely scenarios for 2024 – 2025 are either Trump wins and we peacefully slip into autocracy or he loses and we have a civil war as Red State begin to leave the Union.

There is, of course, the very real — but far lesser — possibility that there might be something akin to a “Resistance Revolution” if it becomes clear that Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues simply won’t stand for it. But, in all honesty, I find such a notion dubious because smug Twitter liberals just don’t have it in them to stand up to Trump, no matter how radical and autocratic his vision for America might be.

They’ll just leave the country and setup up shop in the south of France.

As such, it seems what’s most likely to happen is Trump wins and we become an autocratic nation of blood and soil. Then, about 20 years form now, we’ll wake up and wonder why President MTG is invading Canada to “liberate it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

The crux of the matter is late 2024, early 2025 is when the United States decides, one way or another, what the fuck it’s going to do about MAGA and Trump. I suppose it’s at least possible that we might punt things down the road another four years, but I have my doubts. Given how old Biden is, how fascist Republicans are on a structural basis, it definite seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

We’re going to lurch forward in a big way into a uncertain and potentially very dark future. What’s more, the entire world order established after WW2 could be upended, with the United States leaving NATO and pulling troops out of South Korea.

And all of this will happen in the context of the DPRK lurking in the shadows, ready to lob a few nukes in the direction of the United States if it thinks it can get away with it.

But, as I always say — I’m always wrong. I just can’t predict the future. All I got is a general sense of the macro trends a play in American political history at the moment and then extrapolating the into the future. But just like 2020, it’s absolutely possible that something weird will happen and we’ll manage to go a third way that doesn’t involve either autocracy or violence.

Because the thing you have to remember is — Republicans, on a structural basis, are primed and ready to demand a National Divorce if Trump loses in 2024. That’s the thing we have to take seriously. So, you can tell me all you like how Trump will have problems winning the general giving everything going on, that doesn’t stop the fact that Trump and MAGA could see such a loss as a cue to start a civil war.

So, I just don’t know. It could go any number of different ways. I just, in general, don’t believe we can assume that we’re going to just “muddle through.” All the metrics are aligning such that Something Big And Bad may happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Well, America Definitely *Seems* To Continue to Careen Towards Disaster In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a strong believer in no fate but what we make so I suppose it’s at least possible that someway, somehow, America is going to manage to punt some pretty severe structural problems down the road another four years. But I have my doubts.

The reason I have my doubts is the bolt continue to pop off the United States at an alarming rate. It definitely seems as though the passions of the 2024 election will simply be too much stress on the system and everything will collapse — either by us becoming a Russian-style autocracy or by us having a revolution / civil war.

I am well aware that such talk sounds like “hysterical doom shit” but there is one metric that alarms me to no end and that’s how radical and fascist the Republican Party is now on a structural basis. So, it’s not a repeat of January 6th we have to worry about it’s fucking Republican states leaving the Union if Trump doesn’t win.

Of course, on the other end of the spectrum, there is at least a possibility of something akin to a coup or revolution if Trump wins (or steals the election.) But I have serious doubts about the gumption of Blues in that regard. It’s just not in the nature of Blues to do something so dramatic. What’s more likely to happen is about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will simply decamp to Europe — or wherever.

As such, given that Trump is 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again….we’re pretty much fucked. Barring something I can’t predict, Trump will become president and he will turn us into a Russian-style autocracy based on the concept of blood and soil.

And, if we’re really unlucky, MAGA Republicans will transition into Nazis Republicans and….oh boy. Millions upon millions of people will be at risk of dying in camps. I know how hysterical that sounds, but once we cross the Rubicon into autocracy, the dynamics of the country will change rather dramatically.

The logical conclusion of MAGA will be to weaponize the existing ICE camp system and begin to eliminate whomever the Qanon freaks believe should be gotten rid of.

I hope I’ve got this one wrong, I really do. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Is LK-99 ‘Woke?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a close relative — whom I love dearly — who doesn’t believe in global climate change and he kind of slipped up recently. After I pressed him on the potential gravity of global climate change he said, “well, technology will take care of it.”

If that’s the case, then why can’t we use the power of markets to actually begin to use technology to ameliorate the effects of global climate change? But whenever we actually attempt to do this, Fox News screams at the top of their lungs that it’s “woke.”

Which makes me wonder if LK-99 comes to fruition if, by definition, the Right will see the use of it as “woke.” It definitely seems, sometimes, that the Right has a death wish when it comes to global climate change. Their need to “own the libs” is so absolute, so existential that they would rather let us all cook than do anything about it.

From what I understand, if LK-99 actually becomes a practical superconductor then we might be able to make great progress towards stopping global climate change in its tracks. I just worry that because of the amount of investment that will be needed to adopt LK-99 should it become practical that that, by definition will cause bonkers MAGA people to poo-poo it as just another “woke” wild goose chase.

Or something.

The fact that I have to worry about shit like this is yet another reason why I’m very alarmed about our potential future. All macro trends seem to indicate that we’re totally and completely fucked. Something Big is going to happen very soon, probably associated with the 2024 election.

What that Something Big thing is, I don’t know. But, whatever it is, it will be very dramatic.

Trump’s ‘Delusional’ Defense

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The moment I heard about the January 6th charges against Trump, I knew what his defense would be — that he honestly believed the bullshit he was peddling. And, sure enough, that seems to be the consensus as to what Trump’s defense will, in fact, be.

And, as such, we’re probably going to spend way, way, way too much time debating the nature of Trump’s delusion just as we’re also debating the fact that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.

This all reminds me of how Trump is an avatar for severe, existential rot within our democracy. That rot is so severe that we will face an existential choice in 2024 — autocracy or civil war / revolution (depending on who wins.)

At the moment, the historical momentum for Trump to win and for the United States to become an “illiberal democracy” like Russia is so powerful as to be nearly immutable. The question is, of course, will Blues do anything when we come to the precipice.

I just don’t see smug Twitter liberals having the gumption to put up any fight on the matter. They’re just going to flee the country and the United States will circle the drain into autocracy.

So. So long and thanks for all the fish, guys. If you have the means to leave the country, I suggest you do so. Trump is delusional and yet he’s probably still going to become president again.

No One Is Going To Save Us

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue facing us is there are macro, structural issues swirling around us that we have no control over. Everything looks like it’s going to come to a head in late 2024, early 2025. I say this because the last time we had significant political violence, it was sparked by the presidential election of 1860. So, at the moment, at least, it definitely seems as though the election of 2024 Could Be It.

Or not.

I continue to struggle with the idea that we’ve crossed the Rubicon to the point that the two sides hate each other in the real world to the point that they would take up arms to prove their point. But the key issue for me is not just how radical Trump’s second term agenda is, but how unlikely he is to accept defeat should that happen to occur.

It’s one of those things where you just can’t predict things one way or another. All the conditions are there for revolution or civil war, and, yet, either one of those outcomes for the 2024 election seems rather fantastical at the moment. It just doesn’t seem possible that an otherwise stable hyperpower like the United States would suddenly and abruptly — and wilfully — go tits up because of “vibes.”

And, yet, here we are.

You really could make a case either way. It could be that all of this is just more of my usual “hysterical doom shit” and it could be that I’m being rather prescient. At the moment, even I think we’re either going to punt our problems down the road another four years or we’re just going to slide peacefully into autocracy.

But there is a greater-than-zero sum chance that all hell will break loose. I think this because on a structural basis, the Republican Party has begun to believe its own bullshit to the point that they are prepared to start a civil war if Trump doesn’t manage to win in 2024. The only unknown is if they’re actually prepared to pull the trigger on a “National Divorce” in the real world and not just their usual online mental masturbation.

At the moment, now in the summer of 2023, it really could go either way. I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once for a reason. So, for the time being, we’re just going to wait and see, I guess.

The Strange Case Of The Dog With No Bite (Yet?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we rush towards late 2024, early 2025 with the fate of America for decades to come will be decided, there is one thing that hasn’t happened yet that you might otherwise be expecting — political violence.

I definitely don’t want political violence to happen, but if you accept that the country is tearing itself apart like it did in the 1850s, then it would be logical to assume that similar things might begin to happen. As such, I continue to have a lingering fear that we might see some sort of unexpected, spectacular political violence not in the streets — but in the halls of Congress.

Should any such thing tragically happen, that is when I will sit up and take notice. That type of event would lead me to believe that when the moment comes in late 2024, early 2025 that the single biggest event in world history since the French Revolution probably is going to happen — the United States will either have a civil war or a revolution (depending on which side wins the 2024 election.)

We’ve apparently come pretty close in the last few years, but my fear is with all the fucking guns in the country these days, there is a real risk of some sort of mass casualty event in Congress itself when someone — probably a Republican Representative — freaks out and starts shooting people.

I don’t want any such thing to happen, but that’s my fear.

The Vivek Ramaswamy Campaign Agenda Is Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want any sign of the fascist rot at the core of the Republican Party, look no further than Vivek Ramaswamy. He says shit that is so totally fucking bonkers with a straight face that gives one pause for thought. From what I tell from what I’ve heard of him talking about his campaign, Ramaswamy is running to the Right of Trump.

And he seems so blase and cheerful about his fascist inclinations. He keeps talking about how he wants “move forward.” But forward into what? It definitely seems that with all of this talk of requiring military service to for young people to vote that he wants to move us forward into a fascist state.

What’s more, Ramaswamy comes across as something of a joke because, like a little puppy dog, he refuses to say anything critical of Trump, even as he’s trying to defeat him for the nomination. It’s all very curious.

The Ramaswamy campaign shows how totally fucked we are. The Republican Party is pretty brazen in how fascist it is at the moment and, because of macro trends, it shows no signs of coming to its senses. This is it — either we have a civil war / revolution and somehow win it and destroy the Republican Party as we currently know it, or we turn into a Russian-style autocracy.

It definitely seems, at the moment, that this an immutable fact of our immediate future.

The Era Of Hope Is Over — The Era Of Preparation Has Arrived

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing I’ve noticed from people on both the Left and the Right when it comes to Trump is an odd sense that somehow if we just “hope” enough that he won’t come back in 2024. The thing about Trump is he’s an avatar for deep-seated structural problems in our political system.

As such, barring something spectacular, Trump has a better-than-even chance of being elected president again in 2024. Much like how there came a point when there was a certain inevitability to the fall of Rome, so, too, is America careening towards autocracy on a macro level.

This is a historical Big Idea the likes of which we haven’t faced since 1860. And, at the moment, I think we’re just going to peacefully slide into autocracy. There is, of course, a chance that there be a spectrum when it comes to violence from none to a civil war / revolution, but I’m not convinced that either side has it in them to actually pull the trigger one violence.

Sure, there will be a lot of talk about it no matter what happens in 2024, but now, in August 2023, there just doesn’t seem to be the gumption on either side to risk life-or-death violence on the scale necessary to either start a civil war (National Divorce) or to some sort of Resistance Revolution.

At least, I hope I’m right. Both a Red Civil War or a Resistance Revolution would be a massive fucking clusterfuck on an astonishing scale that would, by definition, prompt World War Three and potentially the DPRK lobbing a few h-bombs our way.

So, in a sense, these months before Election Day 2024 are kind of the quiet before the storm. A decision of some sort is going to be made about the nature of America one way or another. I struggle to believe that we’re going to find some sort of Third Way like we did in 2020 that allows us to punt some severe political problems down the road another four years.

The era of hope is over. The era of preparation has begun.