Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Could America Actually Have A Civil War or Revolution Starting in Late 2024?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for either a civil war or revolution starting in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, there is one remaining unknown that I simply can’t game out — have we reached the point where severe political violence might actually break out?

This is something I think a lot about because the case could be made that for all the bolts popping off the country at the moment, people on either the Left or the Right just aren’t prepared to risk their lives for what they believe in. It could very well be that when the time comes we’ll either slip into autocracy or we’ll manage to punt that shift down the road for another four years peacefully. Either one of those options is a viable possibility at this point.

And, yet, I worry.

I worry not so much that there might be another January 6th-type incident if Trump loses so much as, on a more systemic basis, state-level Republican Parties might begin to pull states out of the Union if it happens. This is how we might have a civil war. Even though on a individual basis MAGA people may not be willing to die for the cause, institutions controlled by Republicans are willing to initiate a National Divorce because they’re fucking snowflake crybabies.

Now, the other option is Trump wins in 2024 and his incoming agenda is so radical that the Left, rather than demanding a National Divorce, will do something more along the lines of a revolution. This would involve powerful officials across the country balking at Trump becoming president again and that, unto itself, will prompt political violence.

There is the risk, of course, that any such attempt at a “Glorious Revolution” will fail and only allow Trump to consolidate power quicker. Something like this happened in Turkey a few years ago, leaving it an autocracy.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win in 2024, we peacefully slip into autocracy and that’s that. I just don’t see smug Twitter liberals having the guts to risk their lives and sacred honor in the real world to do anything about Trump’s second term — no matter how radical it may be.

Trump wins and at some point after 2025 he demands a Constitutional Convention to codify MAGA into law and that, as they say, will be that. We’ll drift towards a Russian-style autocracy and we’ll wake up in about 20 years wondering why we’re invading Canada.

We’ll pull out of NATO, with draw the tripwire from South Korea and maybe even align with Russia, Turkey and Hungary. This is a very real possibility if Trump wins in 2024. And, at the moment, Trump is 60,000 votes in five swing states away from that very victory.

What’s more, Biden is old and fuck and that also adds a distressing level of uncertainty to what happens between now and Certification Day 2025. I worry about that particular situation a lot more than you might think.

I think, at the moment, that Trump is going to win in 2024. On a macro level, at least, that seems our fate. Good luck.

MAGA Has Gone Septic

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It continues to appear as though, baring something I can’t predict, 2024 is going to Be It. We’re going to make an existential decision — one way or another — as to the fate of our democracy. The 2024 presidential cycle could be the most historically significant since 1860.

But there is a lot still up in the air about what, specifically, will happen. There are four possible options, it seems. One is, Trump wins outright and we peacefully slide into autocracy. The next possibility is, Trump wins and there’s some sort of “Resistance Revolution.” Another option would be Trump loses and there’s a civil war when Red States begin to leave the Union. And then, of course, there is the least likely possibility — Biden or some other Democrat wins and we just punt things down the road again.

At the moment, I just can’t figure out which of those four options will actually become a reality. I’m always, always wrong, so it’s probably going to be some outcome that I just can’t predict.

But I do think that at the moment the most likely outcome is Trump wins again and smug liberals just leave the country. The United States will peacefully slide into autocracy and before you know it we’ll have a MAGA-induced Constitutional Convention and we’ll have some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts bolted onto the Constitution.

It seems to me that the United States will follow the path of Russia over the last 20 years in which we slide into autocracy. The big issue is, of course, will it be a “light touch” autocracy or will our new autocrat be so insecure that they begin to consolidate power in a way that it bumps up against the American self-perception that we’re a democracy.

That is the real crux of what we face in late 2024, early 2025. At the moment, I think people are just to blase and no matter how radical Trump’s incoming agenda is, nothing of note is going to happen in regards to any sort of resistance. We’ll become a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

And, yet, there is a greater-than-zero chance that if Trump’s incoming agenda is really as radical as we all fear, that something extraordinary might happen. And that doesn’t even begin to address the possibility of a civil war if Trump loses. I could totally see Red States — starting with, say, Texas — leaving the Union in late 2024, early 2025 if Trump loses.

But, again, it’s at least possible that we’ll just punt things down the road again. I just don’t know what is going to happen at the moment.

So Joe Biden Is Going Be Impeached?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the reasons for Joe Biden to be impeached, the one that House Republicans have come up with has got to be the dumbest. If they impeached Biden over the border, or, hell, the indictment of Trump, then, yeah, I could at least give them points for being logical.

But…Hunter Biden? They’re going to impeach Biden over some dumb conspiracy theory they have no proof for? It’s all very curious. I suppose, maybe, they can always impeach Biden for the other shit later.

Ugh. It’s all so very, very dumb.

The Real Threat In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for late 2024, early 2025 has nothing to do with another January 6th type situation. The real danger is that, on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has grown so radical that if Trump somehow magically manages to lose the 2024 election that they will begin to leave the Union.

As such, people who are focusing on some sort of repeat of January 6th are totally missing the point. The is a real risk of a Second American Civil War if Trump loses in 2024.

Let me be clear — at the moment, in July 2023 — I just don’t see Trump losing. He’s going to win and he — and his successor — will lurch American into a Russian-style autocracy. I say this because Trump’s fate remains in the hands of 60,000 voters in five swing states.

That’s it.

So, baring something I can’t predict, Trump is the next president of the United States and he’s going to be a tyrant and a thug in ways that are unprecedented in American history. And, remember, Biden is very old. And history is replete with instances where the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen, happens.

So it is VERY EASY to imagine that Biden, tragically, shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between when the 2024 ballots are printed and Certification Day. If such a thing happened, mass chaos would ensue. The last time any such thing happened was in 1872 and the solution wasn’t great — they equally distributed the dead guys Electoral Votes among everyone else.

Yikes!

Anyway, if Trump does somehow manage to lose, there is a real risk that we’re going to have a civil war. The greatest, most powerful nation in the world, is going to destroy itself because of “vibes.”

The other alternative is, of course, Trump wins and we have something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.” I seriously doubt such a thing would happen — too many of the people who would otherwise spear head such a historic event will simply bounce — but it’s at least possible, I guess. If it happened, Blues across the country would actively work to prevent tyrant and thug Trump from becoming president.

If we’re lucky, it would be a “Glorious Revolution” if we’re not…oh fucking boy.

Tiny D is Such A Fucking Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Ron DeSantis is he will be an American Putin if he is elected POTUS. I say this because the Republican Party is a fascist party now and, by definition, our next Republican president will be an American Autocrat. And there really isn’t much we can do about it unless there’s something along the lines of a Resistance Revolution.

The great irony is, of course, that ding-dong Trump is so stupid, so lazy that he simply was not able to do what he was originally elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat. Trump is well on his way to getting another shot at being an autocrat and this time, in 2024 – 2025, he’s probably going to be successful. There is, of course, a greater-than-zero chance that, like I said, there will be something akin to a revolution (Blues) or a civil war (Reds) no matter what happens in 2024.

But let’s get back to Tiny D, who tweeted this:

The hissy fit that fucking fascists like Ron DeSantis have over ESG is as stereotypical as it is depressing. Tiny D’s attack on ESG is a prime example of how we’re careening into fascism. There’s no going back. And the only way we don’t slide into autocracy be it through President DeSantis or Ding-Dong Trump, is something akin to a revolution.

And I hate violence. So, lulz, I would prefer we just slide peacefully into fascism that have any sort of violence. But the key issue that I have to accept if we go that path is things are going to get personal — ICE agents will be weaponized and either I get rounded up and put into a Trump-branded camp or just get a bullet in the back of the head.

I say this because I’ve really had the luxury of living in the Western liberal democracy. And when that is no longer the case, I’m not going to change my behavior — I’m never going to shut up.

Where’s Our Vibe Shift?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that culture could change a lot just within the course of one decade. As late as the 1980s, early 80s was very different than mid or late 80s. And, yet, it definitely seems as though since 2001, cultural shifts haven’t happened as rapidly.

I’m old enough that if I look back over the last 20 years, I struggle to see how there has been any sort of major vibe shift. Yes, there have been blips of change here and there since 2001, but, in general any cultural changes have been rather subtle.

At some point over the last 20 years, something changed.

Could it have been the advent of social media because of the smartphone? Is that what caused everything to change? It’s all very curious. Or is it possible that we’re really, really overdue for a severe vibe shift.

And as such, maybe 2024 really is it?

Could it be that because of both the Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning may happen at the same time in late 2024, early 2025 that, unto itself, could be the Vibe Shift that we’ve all been expecting. Maybe?

But it is very curious. Someone should write a 10,000 word New Yorker piece about this shit.

2024: A Perfect Storm

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems like everything is going to come to a head in 2024. Developments in AI will combine with the put up or shut up political moment of late 2024 – early 2025 and the fate of the entire world — of all of humanity — could be decided starting in 2024.

I say this because if the US collapses — or even simply peacefully transitions into an America First autocracy — everything is going to be upended. Talk about a New World Order! If the US leaves NATO and aligns itself with other autocratic states like Russia, Hungary and Turkey, then, that, unto itself could prompt WW3 to happen — killing about 1 billion people one way or another.

If America collapses into the chaos of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) the same thing will happen — a billion people will die (at least.) If all of this happens, then the issue of AI will be punted down the road until America figures out of it’s going to become Trumplandia or if we’re going to establish the Third American Republic.

At the moment, it really could go either way. It really the fuck could. No fate but what we make and all that.

But if a Third American Republic is established, THEN the issues of global climate change and AI could be addressed collectively by humans as a species. That, at least, would be the idea endgame.

And, yet, humans are dumb and it could be that not even a New World Order after WW3 could get us to get our act together enough to address, collectively some Big Issues that face Humans.

But, I guess, we’ll see, huh?

2023: The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This year, 2023, is really beginning to have a “quiet before the storm” vibe to it. The signs are everywhere that our political system is collapsing before our very eyes to the point that I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the passions of the 2024 election.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. We’re either going to turn into an autocracy when Trump wins or he wins and we have a “Resistance Revolution” in response. Or he loses and he demands a civil war. There just doesn’t seem to be any “Third Way” that allow us to punt some severe, macro problems down the road another four years.

I saw someone today that really alarmed me — he definitely looked like someone who would murder me in cold blood in late 2024, early 2025 if the country collapses into anarchy because there’s either a civil war going on because Trump has lost or a Resistance Revolution going on because he’s won and Blues have managed to stop sucking their own cocks long enough to actually fight back. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

And, yet, I said the same sort of shit about 2020 and….nothing happened other than the January 6th Insurrection. And, I’m always, always wrong. So…maybe somehow, someway we will manage to eek through 2024 without either turning into an autocracy or having a revolution / civil war? Maybe?

It will definitely be interesting to see one way or another.

If Trump Doesn’t Win In 2024, He’s Going To Start A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that Republicans are wilfully oblivious about is not only is Trump going to be the nominee, but if he does lose in 2024, he’s going to single-handedly start a civil war. And if he wins, he may cause a Blue revolt that will be marketed as a “Resistance Revolution.”

The point is — 2024 is it. It’s the year a lot of macro trends come a head, just as the pseudo-science book The Fourth Turning predicts. And, at the moment, it seems like Trump is going win in 2024 — or start a civil war if he doesn’t. Trump is an avatar for a LOT of macro problems in American politics and, as such, we can’t just keep punting these problems down the road.

The Second American Republic, the one founded by Lincoln upon his death, is just about to end and either we turn into an American Autocracy or we have some sort of rebirth into a Third American Republic. At the moment, it could go either way.

My bet is this is it, Trump wins and he and his eventual successor turn us into something akin to Russia, Hungary or Turkey. There might be a WW3 along the way as we transition into an autocracy as well.

But I do think that if Trump loses — as all these well meaning Republicans seem to think in private — we’re going to have a civil war, probably with Texas being the first state to leave the Union. And, add into the equation how fucking old Biden is and…oh boy.

Anyway. Get out of the country while you can, if you have the means.

Yet More Literary Existential Angst

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got some blood work back today and it indicated that I have high cholesterol — a leading cause of heart attack and stroke. Which, of course, makes me think of how Stieg Larsson died just as he learned he had gotten a book deal. I’m the same age he was when he died of a heart attack and I still have about a year left before I will start querying.

What gets me is that even if I stick the landing with this novel that because of post-production, I could be 55 or 56 before I’m a published author. That really gives me pause for thought when I realize I may drop dead at any moment from a heart attack or stroke.

And, what’s more, there is the issue of what the fuck is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025 just about the time I’m going to start querying my first novel aggressively. It could be that the either we’re slipping into autocracy or we are about to have a civil war or revolution just as I’m doing that.

I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war or revolution. I think Trump is going to win and that will be that. He will use Schedule F to turn us into an autocracy and I’ll have to start to seriously think about how I’m going to escape an ICE agent putting a bullet in the back of my head.

And, YET, given that it was my anger over Trump that caused me to start working on this six novel project in the first place, the case could be made that if some agent learns the nature and overarching subtext of these six novels that they might be more interested in buying the first novel.

The subtext of these six novels is I fucking hate MAGA with a white hot rage to the point that I’m willing to write six novels that let me rant about how much I hate political extremism.

Anyway, we’re totally fucked. I just don’t see any “third way” like what happened in 2020. Something really unexpected will have to happen pretty quick. Trumpism has gone septic and this is it — America is going to be an autocracy starting in 2025.