Not to sound too much like a political history nerd, but there IS a difference between a “civil war” and a “revolution.” What Curt Schilling believes should happen is a “civil war” while what Blues might do would be a “revolution.”
Reds are always talking about a National Divorce — which would cause a civil war — because 1) it’s the worst thing they can think of 2) they want to the opportunity to murder people like me with impunity.
Anyway.
The point is – “revolutions” tend to be center-Left in nature while what people like Curt Schilling want is a “civil war.”
I still don’t see why Schilling is so eager for a civil war — or whatever. MAGA is politically ascendant and MAGA just has to be patient and they will get everything want.
It has taken me a long, long time to figure this subtle difference out, but I finally have — it makes no sense for Blues to secede from the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump win re-election.
What DOES make a lot of sense is a Second American Revolution.
As such, the war aims would not be secession, but the overthrow of a tyrannical “Magadonia” regime. Blue States wouldn’t want to start their own, new nation, but bring freedom and prosperity back to a America under the yoke of tyranny.
I don’t know how much of that is me making myself feel better — I mean, I don’t want to start a Blue nation, I want to live in a free and united America — and how much of that is actually something that might happen.
Anyway. This is a distinction between Red war aims and Blue war aims that make me feel so, so, much better. I’m not much for secession, but I am willing to, in an abstract way, entertain revolution. But, even then, it’s an abstraction. I hate violence of any sort.
I would much rather we just muddle through and transition into some sort of “light touch” autocracy. I really do hate violence that much.
I really liked the #MeToo books She Said and Catch And Kill. They were insightful and interesting. But I find myself watching the movie adaptation of the former book and it comes across as a humorless Very Serious Film.
I’m just starting it, but I can see what it didn’t do very well in the box office, especially given how divided America is. The movie doesn’t seem to have much heart. It takes its subject matter So Seriously that it can come across as sort of plodding.
Trump isn’t going to live forever, so the case could be made that we’re at the very beginning of a broader, longer-term revolution in American political life. Given my own personal experiences using LLMs to work on my novel, I’m growing kind of shocked at how good they are.
There are many, many jobs — both white collar and blue collar — that are going to grow moot and quaint in the near, near future.
As such, it is easy to imagine a new version of MAGA at some point in the near future that fuses the labor needs of the far Left and far Right in such a way that the banning of LLM (and AI in general) becomes something they are willing to burn the country down for.
Trump is just so, so very stupid that I doubt he is smart enough to process in the abstract why AI needs to be banned or regulated. That is, of course, until some the “woke” nature of LLMs is distilled down to a talking point that idiot Trump can understand well enough to demagogue.
Anyway, it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAGA and AI. I think whatever happens needs some time to marinate a little bit. The MAGA objections to AI are still to abstract for dingus Trump to process. It could be that if we have some sort of “perfect storm” in late 2024, early 2025 that that will be when Trump — or someone like him — starts to demand a Butlerian Jihad.
If you want to see how fucked up American politics are, look no further than the issue of “protect trans kids.” Because of all the disinformation flying around this issue — from both sides — I’ve given some serious thought to what I think about the issue.
The key take away from this particular clusterfuck is….there really aren’t that many “trans kids” to protect. It’s not like there are thousands of children who are demanding they take the medical steps necessary to transition. There are a lot of sexually confused kids — like there have always been since the dawn of time — who don’t know what they are or what they want and they’re being used as pawns on “both sides” to make political points.
Because the Left makes a big deal about “protect trans kids,” the Right flips out that there are “trans kids” that need to be “protected” in the first place.
The whole thing is very very fucked up because, from my experience, if you don’t cling to the established center-Left narrative about “protect trans kids” even though there really aren’t that many trans kids to protect….you are in for shit ton of trouble. From both sides! Either the Left things you’re Satan, or the Right demands you becoming just as hysterical as they are about this issue — and other culture war issues — for them to accept you.
Ugh. Fuck all that.
I totally validate the alarm and anger that a lot of Trans Rights advocates have stimming from violence and all that. My only concern is maybe be a little less crazy when it comes to demanding everyone hone to the extremist dictates of the “protect trans kids” narrative.
Ok, here’s what’s going on. One of the rallying cries of the MAGA Right is “go woke go broke.” They point to how Bud Lite has lost, like, 20% of its market share for sending *1* promotional beer can to a trans “influencer” for an Instagram post.
And, yet, globally, I’ve seen evidence that overall, Anheuser-Busch has only lost 1% of its market share. What’s more, because of consolidation in the beer market,almost all of that lost market share is going to other beer brands, also owned by Anheuser-Busch!
As such, this is the perfect culture war battle — both sides are right and both sides are wrong — depending on how you look at things — if you ever get into any sort of argument over things.
In short — lulz, nothing matters. And everything sucks.
But I have to say — I am growing more and more alarmed at how Red and Blue are receding away from each other. Something’s gotta give. There is going to come a point where all these macro trends come to a head and God-only-knows what sort of fucked up things will happen.
The greatest country in the world is going to potentially imploded because of ‘vibes.”
I have long said that Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He is an empty suit. He doesn’t have to do anything but just exist and 35% of the Republican electorate will vote for him. Throw in how fucked up our electoral system is and, lulz, he’s 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.
But, wait, it gets worse!
The issue is — Trump really isn’t very popular. But because Republican-controlled institutions not only live in abject fear of him but hate democracy, there is a very real chance that if Trump doesn’t manage to win re-election in 2024 that we’re going to have a civil war.
And if he does “win” in 2024, there’s a real chance that we may have a Blue Revolution — at is, if all the fucking smug Twitter liberals are willing to stay in the country to provide leadership to that Revolution. (Not that I want such a destructive thing.)
But because of what a fucking dingus Trump is, we have to think seriously about some pretty destructive macro issues that are all coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. It could be that we’re just going to muddle through this lingering crisis like we have done since January 6th. It could be that Jan. 6th was the one chance that MAGA had to establish “Magadoina” and, lulz, everything after that is just a muddled game of moving goal posts and kicking political cans down the road.
I’m always wrong. Always. But I love to pontificate about the future.And, as such, think it’s safe to say that one way or another, the United States is going to careen into a historic, existential crisis a lot sooner than you might think. For once, I’m not taking about the choice between autocracy or civil war.
This time, I’m talking about how we’re probably going to have a Constitutional Convention before the end of the decade, no matter what. And because of how the delegates to the convention would be selected, it’s inevitable that barring a Blue Revolution, that any such convention would be used to turn the United States into “Magadoina.”
Remember, the FIRST Constitutional Convention accidently on purpose went rouge. There’s every reason to believe that if the bonkers far Right people who want a such a convention so bad get their wish that the same thing will happen. And that the GOOD eventuality, with the bad version of this scenario being Trump gets re-elected and he gets into his ding-dong head that he wants a Constitutional Convention so he can staple onto the Constitution some MAGA “Enabling Acts.”
Or, put another way, the rest of this decade is going to be nuts. We’re coming to the endgame of the long-term historic forces tearing the country apart. Either we’re going to be all Red, or all Blue. And the process of deciding that particular situation is going to probably end the lives of a few billion people across the globe one way or another.
But, like I said, I’m always, always wrong. We’ll just muddle through, right? Right?
Let’s talk about two people featured on the Tech Bro podcast “All-In.”
Chamath Palihapitiya They say you can’t argue with success and, as such, I really don’t have much room to talk when it comes to this guy. He’s very, very successful. But I still have a hot take on him, and that hot take is he’s a huge fucking asshole. I say this as broke-ass “creative type” who likes to think I have enough of a something akin a secular “soul” that I can appreciate that sometimes humans create for the sake of creation. Palihapitiya’s views on Hollywood — that the entire industry is just a Tech Bro rounding error — are enraging. I mean, come the fuck on. Yeah, so you’re a master of the universe, Hollywood is still very powerful. To use a strict monetary metric on Hollywood totally misses the point — Hollywood fucking creates reality! It’s all very frustrating.
David Sacks Sacks is a prime example of a person who is a fascist, but their self-perception is such that they can’t bring themselves to admit it. Sacks’ politics are identical to a relative of mine’s. I love my relative dearly, but sometimes their arguments are just stunning in their conflated cluelessness. Sacks wants an autocratic white Christian enthostate (or thereabouts) but knows its not good politics to admit it, so he blabs about how rational he is, yadda, yadda. Fuck that. And fuck him. But, again, he’s very successful and so you can actively ignore me.
The other guys on the podcast are interesting. Maybe a little too close to Space Karen Elon Musk, but I got no problems with them. And, in general, I find the All-In podcast very interesting and enjoyable because it’s thought provoking. But I have to admit that whenever I listen to it I do a lot of yelling and eye rolling at some of the bullshit I hear.
The more Trump gets into legal trouble and there isn’t, liike, blood on the streets, the more I’m beginning to wonder if maybe, just maybe, I’m overthinking what might happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that what happened on January 6th was a very specific incident, with every specific conditions, not to be repeated.
And, yet, it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 in association with the 2024 election. Both sides have reason — at the state level — to freak out over whatever outcome might happen to occur as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
Reds will want a civil war because they want to “own the libs,” while Blues will want a revolution so they can topple the tyranny of the “Magadoina” regime. And, yet, we’re STILL to far out from these events for me to game out any hard and fast scenarios.
I’ve written a lot from a lot of different angles about how a civil war / revolution might come to the US….but…I don’t know. It could be that while Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican base, if he loses, he just won’t have the power I think he has. He’ll scream about how Texas should leave the Union — and they’ll think seriously about doing it — but, in the end, nothing will come of it.
But the more I think about it, the more it definitely seems clear to me that we won’t face rolling political violence as a result of the passions of the 2024 election, but, rather either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) It will be organized at the state level and will involve WMD, World War Three breaking out and probably a few H-bombs being lobbed our way by the DPRK.
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