Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Lulz, America’s Fucking Doomed Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. And, what’s more, I can’t predict the future. No one can. However, America definitely has a modern antebellum vibe to it at the moment. The country is tearing itself apart as the Red and the Blue continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate.

And, yet, to date, there really hasn’t been the type of political violence one might expect if we were going to have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025. As such, it definitely seems as though when the time comes, we’re going to just slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy.

Something pretty extraordinary would have to happen for the one scenario that we would need to happen to punt our problems down the road again another for years to happen — that both Trump would lose and he wouldn’t try to start a civil war to save his own hide.

The country is careening towards some sort of Fourth Turning at such an alarming rate that I just can’t see Trump’s demands to start a civil war should he lose the 2024 election going unheeded. The most logical outcome is he wins and either we turn into a full-fledged Russia-style autocracy or there’s some sort of Blue “Revolution” bent on toppling the “Magadonia” regime.

It’s all very fucked up. I’ve been saying for years now that we face an existential choice in 2024 – 2025 of autocracy or civil war / revolution. The rhetoric is just too frothy and the momentum is too strong. Either we just give up and turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Get ready.

America In Red & Blue: A 2023 Hot Take On ‘MAGA Civil War’ or ‘Resistance Revolution’ Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, it seems as though the issue these days is more about which side of the political spectrum will get mad enough to resort to widespread political violence should the time come than anything else. I continue to be bemused by people who seem to think state governments won’t get involved if there is a “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

So, here are two scenarios about what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.

MAGA Civil War
In this scenario, somehow, magically, Trump isn’t re-elected in 2024. I find it very dubious that there is anything stopping him winning at this point, but, lulz — I can’t predict the future. Ok, in this scenario, Trump loses — or doesn’t manage to steal — the 2024 election and when he starts ranting…and ranting…and ranting…about how the election was “stolen” from him “again” the first thing that happens is there is widespread wildcat violence to the point that people don’t feel comfortable if their politics don’t fit the presidential politics of the state they live in. As such, there’s a lot of bouncing around, with Blues leaving Red states and Reds leaving Blue States. But that’s just the beginning. Ultimately, Red States — probably staring with Texas — will call up Secessionist conventions and they will begin to leave the Union. Before you know it, there really is a National Divorce and a Second American Civil War. We bomb ourselves into oblivion trying to fix this problem — probably with the aid of the DPRK. What’s more, WW3 breaks out because of all this bullshit and then, after about five years of unprecedent death and destruction (if we’re lucky it’s just that short) we come out the otherside deciding once and for all if America is a democracy or an autocracy. What’s more as all of this is happening, AI will be careening towards us at an alarming rate.

Resistance Revolution
But what happens if Trump wins? Well, then I think we don’t have a civil war, but rather a revolution. I say that because 1) revolutions are generally progressive in nature 2) the Right in the United States has the deep cultural echo of the secession to hook their hopes and dreams onto. Secession is an easy sell to a lot of fucking Southern rednecks who grow up their entire lives assuming that the South will “rise again.” As such, it could be when it becomes clear that Trump is going to become a tyrant, I could see that a Blue Revolution breaks out — again, on the state level –that involves not secession, but some attempt to topple the “Magadonia” regime. In real terms, the only different between a MAGA Civil War and a Resistance Revolution would be context and marketing, but, lulz — sucks to be you MAGA. Again, if this happens, there would be WW3 in the context of a potential Petite Singularity rushing towards us at an alarming rate.

It’s very much up in the air which side would win or how long either of these tragic historic events would take. The whole idea stinks and sucks and I don’t want it — but we have to take the idea that one way or another the United States may be about to go through a era of political violence not seen since 1861 – 1865.

A Moment Of Truth

Here’s a blog post I wrote that was “enhanced” by Bing. Meh. I just was too lazy to actually write this all the way out. And this was an experiment.

I’m scared. I’m scared that we’re on the brink of a civil war. Or, more accurately, I’m scared that if the Reds get angry, we’ll have a civil war, and if the Blues get angry, we’ll have a revolution. It seems like both sides have already given up on each other and are ready to split apart. I’m nervous about what will happen next.

It feels like we’re approaching a critical juncture in history, a moment of truth that will determine our fate as a nation. Some call it the Fourth Turning, a theory that says that every 80 years or so, America goes through a cycle of crisis and renewal, marked by four stages: a catalyst, a regeneracy, a climax, and a resolution .

According to this theory, the last Fourth Turning was the Great Depression and World War II, which led to the New Deal and the postwar boom. The current Fourth Turning began with the 2008 financial crisis, which triggered a wave of social and political turmoil that culminated in the pandemic, the riots, and the storming of the Capitol .

Now we’re in the resolution phase, where everything is up for grabs. Will we emerge from this crisis with a new social contract that gives millennials a brighter future? Or will we descend into chaos and violence that tears us apart?

Some see hope in President Biden, who has been compared to FDR for his ambitious spending plans and social programs. Could he be the gray champion, an elder leader who emerges during a Fourth Turning to guide the nation through its darkest hour ?

Or is he too late, too weak, or too compromised to prevent the inevitable clash between the boomers and the millennials, who have different visions for America’s future ?

Some might say that our situation today resembles that of the Roman Republic before it became the Roman Empire. Back then, Rome was also a representative democracy that faced internal strife, social inequality, and political corruption. The republic was shaken by a series of civil wars that pitted different factions against each other, each claiming to defend the interests of the people.

One of these wars was between Julius Caesar and Pompey, two powerful generals who had different agendas for Rome. Caesar was popular among the masses for his reforms and conquests, but he also faced opposition from the Senate and the aristocracy, who feared his power and ambition. He crossed the Rubicon with his army in 49 BC, sparking a civil war that ended with his victory and his dictatorship over Rome.

But his reign was short-lived. He was assassinated by a group of conspirators who wanted to restore the republic in 44 BC. His death triggered another civil war between his supporters and enemies. The winner of this war was Octavian, Caesar’s adopted son and heir, who defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC.

Octavian became the first emperor of Rome, taking the name Augustus and claiming to restore the republic while in fact consolidating his authority. He reformed the administration, the military, the economy, and the culture of Rome, ushering in a period of stability and prosperity known as the Pax Romana.

But not everyone was happy with this change. Some historians argue that the transition from republic to empire marked the decline of Roman civilization, as it eroded the values of civic virtue, political participation, and personal freedom that had characterized the republic. Others contend that the empire was a necessary adaptation to the challenges of a changing world, as it brought peace, order, and unity to a vast and diverse territory.

How does this compare to our situation today? On one hand, there are some similarities between the Roman Republic and American democracy. Both have a tripartite system of government with legislative, executive, and judicial branches. Both have the power to veto laws or decisions by other branches. Both have a checks and balances system to prevent any branch from becoming too powerful.

On the other hand, there are also some differences between the Roman Republic and American democracy. The Roman Republic had a provision for a dictator to take over in times of emergency, while American democracy does not. The Roman Republic had a legal code written in the Twelve Tables, while American democracy has a constitution as its supreme law. The Roman Republic had eight judges who served for one year, while American democracy has nine justices who serve for life.

What does this mean for our future? Will we follow the path of the Roman Republic and become an empire? Will we lose our democracy and our freedom? Will we face civil wars and foreign enemies? Or will we learn from the mistakes of the past and find a way to preserve our republic and its ideals? Will we create a new social contract and a new era of prosperity? Will we overcome our divisions and our challenges?

These are some of the questions that we need to ask ourselves as we enter this historical moment of truth.

I don’t know the answer. I’m not even sure if this theory is accurate or just a coincidence. But I do know that we’re living in interesting times, and that we need to be prepared for anything.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe things will get better soon. Maybe we’ll find a way to heal our divisions and restore our democracy. But I’m not holding my breath.

We’re facing a historical moment of truth. And I’m scared.

Vibe Check: ‘Blazing Saddles’ Discourse Is The Worst Discourse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is so much to unpack about Blazing Saddles. And I’m lazy and don’t want to give this post the proper research, so think of this as more of a off-the-top-of-the-head vibe check than something you might find on, say Vox.

Anyway, the misguided discourse about Blazing Saddles is it “couldn’t be made today” because it uses the N-word and all that. The people who say such things usually are older, white and get “triggered” by just the mere mention of the term “woke.”

But that is A LOT going on with this movie.

The chief thing is the context in which the movie was made. The movie was intended to be a critique of white racism. And, yet, because it came out a long time ago and because of how Blue and Red no longer interact with each other unless they’re screaming at each other, Reds think that the fact that the movie “couldn’t be released today” is a sign of the decline and fall of Western civilization.

This brings up to interesting questions.

One is, would these “anti-woke” MAGA people feel the same way if, instead of being “triggered,” “cultural Leftists” embraced this hypothetical version of the movie being released today? I mean, white people — and specifically the type of people you consider MAGA — are portrayed in the movie as racist morons. The very thing that MAGA is very, very touchy about being considered today. So, the pining after this movie on the part of MAGA is a result of a lost of context — they’re taking broad, anti-racist satire at face value and liking what they see.

Which brings up the SECOND point.

Given the misguided and conflated understanding of the movie that MAGA has — that it being released was a symbol of when America was “great,” what does that mean about MAGA? Why is MAGA so eager to be able to say the N-word if they don’t think of themselves of racist? Why are MAGA people so angry and aggrieved all the time?

The answer is, of course, that MAGA is a symptom, a side effect of the loss of power by straight white Christian men. (I fucking hate MAGA, by the way.)

Anyway. You could pretty much write a 10,000 word New Yorker article about this movie and still not convince some MAGA people that they’re missing the entire point of the movie!

What I can compare it to is how women’s fashion magazines sometimes have nudity, but all some dudes see — despite the context — is “tits and ass.”

I’m Worried About Tuesday Afternoon In Miami

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from casual observation, it definitely seems as though — if Twitter is any indication — MAGA is getting rather riled up at the moment over the Trump indictments.

I’m wrong all the time, but it’s possible — possible — that things might grow unstable in Miami because of Trump’s arraignment. It’s a happening within easy driving distance of a bunk of fucking bonkers MAGA people, so….I don’t know. It’s something to think about.

I have no idea what might happen….but I’m growing more and more concerned that SOMETHING violent might occur. And, that doesn’t even take into account that there is going to be a lot of pressure on House Republicans to make a snap impeachment of Biden in a an eye-for-an-eye type situation of total political war.

Or not.

I’m always wrong.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Total War: If MAGA House Republicans Had Any Balls, They Would Impeach Biden On Tuesday For The DOJ Indicting Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want any proof at what paper tigers MAGA House Republicans are, look no further than how they have yet to do the obvious — impeach Biden on Tuesday just as Trump is being arraigned.

They’re craven and without shame, so lulz, YOLO it and have the split screen of the House voting on impeachment at the same time that Trump is being booked.

I don’t want this to happen, obviously, but it is telling that for all their talk about burning everything to the ground and impeaching this or that person, in real terms, MAGA House Republicans are too disorganized and ill focused to do some pretty basic hard-ball things in this situation.

Not that we shouldn’t be prepared for some sort of bonkers violence on Tuesday. This is South Florida we’re talking about, so anything is possible. But, in general, we have to accept that there is a very good chance that Biden is going to be impeached soon for SOMETHING.

Now what that SOMETHING is, I dunno. But it’s probably going to happen pretty soon. Maybe within days.

The Nature of Trump’s Continued Popularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s what’s going on with Trump and that core 38% of the electorate who continue support him, no matter what. It’s no so much Trump the person as it is Trump the “idea.” Trump’s base of support comes from conservative white Christians who feel put upon by the “excesses” of the center-Left.

They don’t consider themselves racists or bigots, but relative the “woke” center-Left, they feel like they’re being portrayed that way. As such, they are angry over being put upon by the rise of a browner America and women with economic agency.

As such, they want the “good old days” of white Christians being “on top” to return. Since they can’t get that, they cling to a fighter like Trump, even though he is demonstrably bonkers, racist and stupid.

So, at this point, it really doesn’t matter what Trump does. He’s still 60,000 voters in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. We’ve kind of given up. On a macro basis the American Republic is on its last legs. Or we have a civil war /revolution of some sort starting in late 2024, early 2025 and after bombing or ourselves into oblivion the “good guys” win and we gradually return to hyperpower status, though in the context of a New World Order after a Third World War.

I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems like one option.

Or, put another way, the rise of someone as fucking stupid as Trump definitely indicates that America is at a crossroads. Either we establish a Third American Republic, or, that’s it. That’s all she wrote — we turn into a Russian-style illiberal democracy probably with some form of AI being involved for good measure.

Which direction will we take?

I honestly don’t know.

But back to Trump.

All the liberals who continue to be aghast at Trump’s popularity are really missing the point.They are very, very out of touch. A lot of white Christians — a few of whom I’m related to — mean well, but just can’t grapple with the rapid social changes of the “woke” cultural left.

So, they fell pushed into the arms of fascists. There are no easy answers to this particular situation. While we may still punt our problems down the road, in general, we’re very, very fucked.

Good luck.

Little Green Men, Or: MAGA Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know if I should laugh or cry at how MAGA (and the far Left RFK, Jr) are using the news of credible evidence of UFOs to tout their bonkers conspiracy theories. It’s very, very fucking annoying.

Has no one learned the idea that correlation is not causation?

Just because things are similar, or seem to be acting in conjunction with each other, doesn’t mean the fuckinig are!

But this crazy, bonkers rhetoric on the part of professional idiots has gotten me thinking — what if Hard First Contact came? What would be the political reaction?

It seems to me that after the shock wore off, the center-Left would be interested in finding out more about the ETs, while the center-Right would grow hysterical and probably eventually want to either blow them up or convert them to some sort of weird interstellar Christianity.

I wish I was kidding.

But America is sooooo fucking divided and growing more so every day that there simply is no way that anything — ANYTHING — will force us to get our act together.

That’s why late 2024, early 2025 COULD be a rather monumental moment in time. I’m always — always — wrong, so, lulz, we may just muddle through things like we always do…..but I am worried.

It seems like either a full-blown descent into fascist autocracy is going ot happen as part of the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, or we have a civil war (Reds)/ revolution (Blues.).

At the moment, I think we’re probably just going to slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. If we’re lucky. And it will probably all be so subtle that we don’t even realize it.

What’s The Matter With CNN?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the crux of problem with CNN is there is No Center. One side wants me to believe the sky is green while the other side sees that the sky is blue.

Pick a side, CNN. Or a side will be chosen for you.

If they went all-in with MAGA, then they would be really popular. If they went all-in with anti-MAGA, they would be popular. But this issue of trying to play it straight down the middle is bulshit.

Things fall apart. There is no middle. Any attempt to square the circle of modern American politics by doing such a thing is a fool’s errand. Get with the program. CNN needs to accept that Blue and Red are receding away from each other at an alarming rate.

If they keep trying to place themselves in “the center” they’re just going to be fools. Like I said — pick a fucking side. Only by doing that, CNN, will you find any success. I’m serious. You’re fooling yourself to think there is some magical “center” you can reside in that will make you respected by both sides.

It just isn’t going to happen.

Make up your mind one way or another.

‘Polite Robot’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that there is a non-zero chance that AI — or AGI — could very well mean the end of humanity, I continue to grow aggravated with people who complain that the mainstream LLM systems aren’t a cool as they used to be. One person compared the most recent version of ChatGPT to a “polite robot.”

What the fuck do these people want, the Terminator?

It seems as though a small, but vocal portion of the userbase of LLMs literally want the most hateful, spiteful possible versions of the technology so, I don’t know, they can have their personalities reflected back at them? I do think that we’re rushing towards a “Her” future where everyone has a digital assistant that has near-AGI levels of intelligence.

That, of course, will bring with it all sorts of problems — namely, it’s just a matter of time before Incels hook AGI technology up to sexbots and anway we go. You thought Incels were a pain in the butt before, just wait until they have absolutely NO contact with actual human women and they get all their creepy weirdo dreams made a reality by sexbots who are programmed to be pliant and submissive.

But again — I struggle to understand why fucking Redditers seem to want a technology that’s been compared to the a-bomb to be totally unregulated so any hateful dumbass could end civilization because, I don’t know, the wall didn’t get built?

Fuck those people. Idiots.

But it’s that mentality that we have to work around going forward. The whole issue of regulating AI — or AGI — could turn into something a lot like global climate change in the sense that it will get wrapped up in the whole Red-Blue divide and, in the end, nothing will be done about it.

Though, I have to note, if we reach something akin to the Singularity and, like….uhhhhh…no one has any jobs, then it could be that when regulation of AI or AGI is finally filtered through the Red – Blue prism that neo-Luddism will be what MAGA evolves into, leaving the idea of “light touch” regulation for the Blues.

Or something. Whatever it is, it will be fucked up.