Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

It’s Inevitable That Ron DeSantis Will Be America’s First Autocrat — But For Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The “crisis at the border” is MAGA’s original sin. The fear of the browning of America — more so than anything else — is the thing that juices the MAGA Republican base. And the thing that Twitter liberals fail to realize is DeSantis’ stunt where he sends undocumented people to Blue areas of the country is pretty much a value free thing to do, at least from the point of view of the MAGA Republican base.

There is NO reaction on the part of Blues to DeSantis’ dickhead move with undocumented people that would cause him to stop. The country is now so divided that just the *idea* of him doing such a thing is enough to get the MAGA Republican base excited — no matter what the outcome. As such, DeSantis, much like Trump before him, now can bask in the glow of free earned media.

Remember, 20 years ago, DeSantis would have been just your typical ambitious Republican. But he’s studied Trump’s success and now, here we are. He’s going to be America’s first autocrat. He will, of course, bank to the center as necessary for the general in 2024, but once he’s actually in power…lulz. America’s democracy is so weak at the moment that he will make short work of what’s left of it and he’ll simply be president — or in power in some way — for the rest of his life.

It may be a Constitutional Convention or it could be that he is named Speaker after eight years of being POTUS. And remember, DeSantis is one of a dozen other would-be Republican autocrats who would do the very same thing given the opportunity.

Having said all that, we have to address the issue of the one person who stands in the way of DeSantis and his brass ring of being America’s first autocrat: Donald Trump. He isn’t going anywhere and even if DeSantis manages to become the Republican nominee, there is every reason to believe that Trump will simply go to the Patriot Party — taking his followers with him.

Of course, something I can’t predict might happen to Trump, but at the moment at least, that’s the conundrum that DeSantis finds himself in. His best bet is to put himself in the strongest political position possible so he forces Trump to pick him as his veep. Then DeSantis will be in a prime position to finish the job that Trump is too stupid and too lazy to do.

But there the issue of Trump, unto himself, potentially starting a civil war at some point between now and spring 2025. It’s highly unlikely that such a thing might happen — but the risk is definitely greater than zero. There are any number of scenarios where Trump either starts a civil war early to save his sorry ass or starts one later because Blue states refuse to bend a knee to his autocratic fascism.

The bigger picture is we’re fucking doomed. America isn’t even a democracy anymore, it’s an “anocracy.” We have three endgames before us: autocracy, civil war or military junta. That’s it. No middle ground. No more stable democracy. The two sides are simply too far apart and have stopped talking to each other and when they do talk to each other, they don’t listen.

If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re fleeing to. You may never come back to a free America again.

My Hot Take On Dennis Prager

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue with Dennis Prager is he always frames whatever he’s talking about in such a fucking annoying manner that strokes the MAGA base while enraging people like me.

From what I see on Twitter about Prager, he’s just another one of those MAGA “thought leaders” who takes great pains to frame any discussion in a way that leans into the confirmation basis of your typical middle brow MAGA Republican. In a sense, he’s much like Joe Rogan in that respect.

Both men traffic in MAGA Republican outrage porn hidden behind a vague, conflated mentality of aggrievement that MAGA loves to wallow in. Their very argument is bad faith and frame in such a way that when your Traditionalist relative uses one of their talking points while you’re having Thanksgiving dinner it’s very difficult not to grow extremely angry.

And, what’s worse is, all of this bullshit is extremely corrosive. It’s why people in the same family can’t talk about politics anymore. When you have Prager or Rogan getting all bent out of shape about the stupidest shit that they claim is “woke” then there’s not much you can do about it.

If you do try to engage your MAGA Republican relative, then they say the facts you cite are “bogus” or they just get really mad an engage in debate nullification.

The main point is we’re fucked. That people like Dennis Prager get such traction is a very ominous sign. I don’t have any ready answer for you.

Gaming Out An American Military Junta in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I write a lot about the possibility of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, there is a third option that I’ve written about some, too: military junta.

How exactly what that happen? Well, it’s still too far to game out, but one possibility would be that Blue States begin the process of leaving the Union and the military finally steps in to kind of cool things down until, maybe, a Constitutional Convention can be called.

The other scenario is, of course, is the U.S. Military is forced to step in because, well, lulz, we have no idea who POTUS is — or, at least, can’t agree using political means who should be POTUS.

I think we have to give the idea of a military junta serious thought because history has shown us that that is often the route that modern democracies go when they finally fail. It happened with the French in the 1960s and it could happen here in a few years.

In my fevered imagination, I could see someone like James Mattis being named “acting POTUS” for a few months while we sort out exactly what we’re going to do about a National Divorce / secession crisis / certification crisis. The U.S. Military is the only remaining institution in America that would have the means to keep the country together if there was a severe political crisis.

And it would make sense, given how respected the U. S. Military is across the political spectrum for them to control the country through some sort of bi-partisan military junta made up of military and political leaders. A military junta might, in the end, be the only thing that stops either civil war or autocracy from happening.

But. And this is a big but — it could be that not even the American military would be able to avoid buckling should the time come. Generally, the officer corp still believes in democracy, while the enlisted are far more likely to support MAGA.

Which reminds me of the coup attempt that Turkey had a few years ago that ultimately did nothing more than allow their autocrat to consolidate power. So, again, I think in the end, America is just going to become an autocracy. Or, to make ourselves feel better, we’re going to pretend we’re a traditional Western democracy when, in fact, everyone and I mean EVERYONE will know that we’re simply another illiberal democracy like Hungary or Turkey.

The only question I have, of course, is — will I cross ICE and endup in a Trump branded concentration camp?

Twitter Liberals Keep Making The Liberal Progressive Case For A National Divorce

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I constantly see Blue Check Twitter liberals thinking out loud about things I’ve been writing about for some time now. What’s so darkly amusing is they pretty much make the liberal progressive case for a National Divorce without even realizing it. What they’re realizing, of course, is something that has been very clear to me for a long time — MAGA Republicans are ascendant and if there’s going to be a civil war it’s going to be because Blues start it, not Reds.

Now, we’re still to far out for me to know exactly how a Second American Civil War might actually play out. And I still don’t think we’re even going to have one. But as long as Trump continues to be a major American political figure, the risk of a modern day American civil war is very, very real.

It could be that by the time late 2024 rolls around, Blue States — probably starting with California — will simply refuse to “bend a knee” to the autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans how have stolen the 2024 election and there will be a popular ground swell with Blues for Blue States to leave the Union and start their own country. (There is of course, the possibility that there might ultimately be some mission creep as such a possible war progresses and Blue goals would be to “liberate” Trumplandia as well.)

Of course, there is also the possibility that rather than seeing that they’re making the liberal progressive argument for a National Divorce that wealthy Twitter liberals will see these very same arguments as a reason to leave the fucking country.

And, at the moment, I think that’s what’s going to happen, no matter what.

MAGA Republicans steal the 2024 election and, rather than leading any sort of National Divorce, Twitter liberals will simply vote with their feet in pretty astonishing numbers. To the point that Fox News will stop being hysterical about scary brown people and their caravans and start to bitch and complain about a “brain drain” by “unpatriotic liberals.”

But what’s going on in Federal court about Trump stealing Top Secret documents in front a corrupt MAGA hack judge is all part of how the United States is careening towards a very, very dark future. We can’t keep punting this particular crisis down the road forever. Something’s gotta give. And the only question is — autocracy or civil war?

Battle Royale: DeSantis’ Trump Conundrum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things considered, Ron DeSantis is going to be America’s first autocrat. He’s Trump without Trump and my Traditionalist relatives are waiting with baited breath to “vote for him three times.” DeSantis is the ideal person to consolidate autocratic power that will ultimately lead to a Constitutional Convention. We’ll wake up in 20 years and President DeSantis will be invading Canada for some autocratic reason.

But then there’s Trump.

He simply will not get out of the way. Trump’s a fighter and even if he’s indicted, he’s still going to run for president. Of course, there are things I can’t predict. But for the time being, it definitely seems as though Trump is running again in 2024.

And, as such, DeSantis finds himself in something of a pickle. He is so close to the brass ring of being America’s autocrat — amazing power and wealth — and yet dingus Trump is in his way. The question is, will he bend a knee to Trump to be his veep or will he charge him directly?

At the moment, I just don’t know. But there’s one thing to remember — if DeSantis somehow gets the nomination, there’s no reason to believe Trump won’t simply bolt and join, say, the Patriot Party. Then DeSantis would still have to compete direction against Trump in a three way race.

So. I don’t know. It could go either way. But we have to accept that the United States is far less stable than we might otherwise believe.

DeSantis’ Dick Move About Undocumented Immigrants Is Ominous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Besides having an overarching abstract fear of being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” simply for being conservative, the other pressing issue for a lot of MAGA Republicans is the “border crisis.” This is, in a sense, the original sin of the MAGA Republican movement.

The problem with addressing the alarm that MAGA Republicans have about the border crisis is, well, people like me can’t address the pink MAGA elephant in the room. The reason why MAGA Republicans are so alarmed about the border crisis is, of course, that they’re bigots. But it’s nearly impossible to say that in the course of any debate with a MAGA Republican because they will get really mad and simply engage in debate nullifcation.

As such, there’s no much point in talking about it with them because they a very comfortable, well thought out media narrative that they can fall back upon. If you challenge it in anyway, they just say it’s “bogus” because the information you point them to is just, in their eyes, liberal propaganda. They want “secure borders” — to the point of building a very pointless wall (which isn’t even a wall, but rather a fence) — and there’s absolutely nothing you can say to them that is going to change their mind.

And now we have the added development of several border state Republicans shipping undocumented immigrants to various Blue State places in an effort to remind them of the “crisis” at the border. This is a dick move on their part, but the base loves, loves, loves it so there’s not much to be done about it. It helps these governors secure their fucking racist, bigoted base and that’s that.

If such a fucking dick move isn’t a sign that we’re careening towards either autocracy or civil war between now and spring 2025, I don’t know what does. When states start to turn on each other like this, that’s a very, very bad sign on a macro level.

And, what’s more the “crisis on the border” is probably going to be one of several reasons why Biden will be impeached, should Republicans take the House. The will put the country through yet another extremely divisive impeachment because they want to hurt Biden politically and they want to draw as much attention as possible to their hysterical, bigoted fears about the browning of America.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It definitely seems like we’re fucking doomed. Prove me wrong, America.

Time To Retire The ‘Destroys’ Trope In Political Discourse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most grating things to appear in American political discourse these days is when someone says someone “destroyed” this or that person with some comment they made. This is so, so very dumb for a number of reasons.

But the biggest reason is this is very frothy 2017 rhetoric. It works on the assumption that anything one might say about a MAGA Republican might change any minds. No matter how much you may “destroy” someone with a comment it just doesn’t change anything.

The two sides believe what they believe to the point that they can’t even agree on what is real. The Left and the Right already have their individual media narratives and talking points and they talk pass each other whenever there is any sort of debate about issues of the day.

There is no middle ground and no one’s mind will be changed no matter how much they “destroy” someone. It’s just silly and misguided at this point. Better to say nothing. Better to accept that the country is rushing towards a seminal moment in its political history when either it has a civil war or turns into an autocracy.

While I suppose there’s a chance of a military junta as well, the most likely outcomes are autocracy or civil war. We need to manage our expectations and stop believing that any sort of making a point will change our fate. MAGA Republicans are so angry, racist and misogynistic that they’ve tuned out any argument they don’t agree with.

And if they do listen to someone who disagrees with them, they get really, really angry. Not that I’m not above getting really, really angry myself when dealing with MAGA people, but at least I feel bad about it afterwards.

Anyway — people need to cool it with the “destroys” trope. Move on. Time to prepare.

The Conventional Wisdom About What A Second American Civil War Would Look Like Is Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to see where the conventional wisdom by Respected Authors when it comes to a possible Second American Civil War is something like this — if happens, it will be rolling political violence from the MAGA Right who thinks they’re defending “real” America.

I call bullshit. This makes no sense. It seems, in a strange way, to be a certain amount of wishcasting on their part. These Respected Authors just aren’t willing to game out a scenario where the Second American Civil War looks a lot like the first. I still believe that if a 2ACW happens — which I don’t think it will — it will happen in late 2024, early 2025 when Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” to the autocratic fascism of MAGA Republicans who are in the process of stealing the 2024 election.

If it happens, it would happen spontaneously, probably starting with California, and may only be stopped with the swift and severe intervention of the U.S. Military in the guise of a military junta. There is, of course, the possibility that it will be Trump who demands that Red States leave the Union earlier than this scenario in an effort to save his sorry ass.

I guess the point of all of this is — I just don’t see any civil war happening in the way that the alleged experts say it will. It just doesn’t make any sense. They’re working on the assumption that MAGA Republicans will decide, spontaneously, to start blowing shit up.

But that just doesn’t make any sense unless Trump on a personal basis, goes transactional. MAGA Republicans are politically ascendant and, in the end, all they have to do is win ONE election and that’s all she wrote — we’re an autocracy.

If you think about who has something to lose in our current political climate, it’s not Reds, but Blues. And, as such, if we’re going to have another civil war — which I don’t think we will –but if we do, it’s going to be when Blue States decide to leave the Union as part of some sort of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025.

I’m always wrong, however. So, who knows. I still think the most logical endgame is we simply become an autocracy and in about 20 years one a political basis the United States and Russia will be clones.

The Conditions Exist For a Second American Civil War Between Now & Spring 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From my occasional political discussions with my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — it seems clear to me that the conditions already exist for a Second American Civil War. One of my relatives believe that to be a Democrat is, by definition, to be essentially a Godless Satan worshiper while the other one throws around the blood libel of “groomer” against the center-Left in a very cavalier fashion. So, in my little corner of the political world, people in my immediate family are ready to — in an abstract manner — support political violence against liberals.

Now, on a practical basis, I doubt they would actually support political violence. In fact, that might even be one of the few “red lines” they actually have — they will be Good Germans until there is actual blood in the streets. But if you have to wait until there is actual political violence before you object to the the policy agenda of MAGA, well, the whole country has a serious problem.

One of the indications that I have that the conditions exist for a civil war is how my Traditionalist relatives are enraged by the soft power of the center-Left. They are willing to burn the whole country to the ground using the *hard power* of MAGA to crush the *soft power* of the “woke cancel culture mob.” In essence, they’re willing to give up their birth right of American democracy because they think liberals are annoying.

But this is just one of a number of different conditions that exist that indicate we’re very ripe for a civil war at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. The two sides can no longer agree on the facts of any subject. If I point out this or that thing that Trump did that hurts the conservative movement, then it’s “bogus” because it comes from a media outlet that is liberal. My Traditionalist relatives suggest that “maybe we need a unbiased fact checker we can all agree on.”

We have that, it’s called Snopes and all MAGA conservatives do is spend all their time working the refs, saying Snopes is wrong for this or that reason. The facts simply are not on the side of MAGA Republicans, but because they’re so enraged by the browning of America, the growing economic independence of women and a growing support for gay rights….well, they willfully ignore the facts.

Or, put another way, the United States is more and more two nations, one Red one Blue who simply do not agree on not only what it means to be American but what basic fucking facts are. And if you’re so polarized that you can’t even agree on facts then my fears about autocracy or civil war in the United States starting around 2025 become very real.

The remaining question is, of course, is there going to be a civil war? While the conditions exist for one, I just don’t think one is going to happen. I say this because the people who would probably agitate the most for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 — Twitter liberals — are all going to leave the country should the time come.

So, yes, MAGA Republicans will finally end the terror of the “woke cancel culture mob” when they turn the United States into a Russian-style autocracy. I’m poor, so I won’t be able to get out of the country when ICE is weaponized and people like me are put into camps. Then, of course, the OTHER red line for my Traditionalist relatives — the personal — will be crossed and they’re going to have to figure out how to get me out of said camp.

I know that sounds very hysterical at the moment, but form follows function. Once we’re no longer a democracy — or even an anocracy — it’s only going to be a matter of time before MAGA Republicans come after basic freedoms like freedom of speech. And because I will never shut up about how much I fucking hate MAGA — no matter how much my Traditionalist relatives may beg me to do so — they’re going have to get me out of a concentration camp.

What Democratic Forces Can Learn From MAGA Republicans

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the biggest differences between MAGA Republicans and the center-Left is the former has a very simple argument. MAGA Republicans know what they’re for and they are very passionate in articulating it. Of course, there is some murkiness with MAGA New Right rhetoric, but they have no shame and don’t care if they look like hypocritical fools, so lulz.

But, in general, there is a very clear MAGA Republican orthodoxy and, as such, it’s much more simple to articulate and propagate.

As such, I think the center-Left would be wise to boil down what they’re for into something that is far shorter than a long, rambling Substack post. Far too often, the center-Left gets into the weeds of how many different genders their are and the more nuanced elements of feminism.

The United States is now entering a very dangerous political period in its history and we have reached a point where anti fascists need to be clear as to what they believe. While I don’t believe in violence, I do think there should be something akin to “popular Antifa” that would be present the case for anti-fascism and democracy in a far more clear, blunt way than we currently have available.

We may all be Antifa eventually.

But, of course, Antifa is such a loaded term now, that it’s impossible to use. I don’t know what to call it. And no one listens to me, so luz. I just had to get this off my chest because I’m feeling a little annoyed.

We need to realize how dire the situation is and if we want to save American democracy, we need hone our political rhetoric down to something that the average person who isn’t all that interested in which pronouns to use can understand.