I’m always wrong. Always. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about what might happen if Trump was held criminally accountable. Would there be “riots in the streets” as Sen. Lindsey Graham suggests? This is one of three ways that Trump might start a Second American Civil War.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Well, I will admit that the country is on edge. And I will admit that there the conditions are there for severe political violence to happen pretty at any moment. But it takes a lot for even the most bonkers fascist MAGA New Right person to risk life and limb to protect a dingus like Trump. Or, put another way, as much as MAGA New Right people have murdering people like me in cold political blood on the brain, they want a civil war to officially start to do it so they won’t be held criminally accountable.
The events of January 6th were very specific to that moment. It helped a lot that Trump went transactional and told the crowd in front of him that they were going to march down the the Capitol together. (Of course, the shock troops of the Proud Boys were already there, waiting for the rest of the mob to arrive)
So, as such, I think ultimately a lot would rest on what Trump did. It wouldn’t be so much that Trump was indicted or otherwise held accountable, it would be that he went transactional and TOLD the MAGA New Right to burn the country to the ground. Or, even more dire, he might demand that MAGA state legislatures to convene Secessionist Conventions for the specific purpose of putting pressure on the Federal government to protect his sorry ass. Then, things might get out of control and the next thing you know, you have an honest-to-God National Divorce on your hands.
Of course, there is the other option that maybe we might have a 1968-type event, like what happened after Dr. Martin Luther King was murdered, only with white people. There might be some sort of spasm of violence on the part of MAGA New Right cocksuckers.
I honestly don’t know if there would be riots if Trump was held criminally accountable. But I do know that the prospect of such violence is going to be a talking point we hear a lot — A LOT — from the usual suspects of the MAGA New Right going forward.
There is a lot of talk about a civil war in the United States these days, but I think that says more about how the country is on edge than any real prospect of such a violent event. Whenever a country is veering towards a significant change in its political system, there is talk of civil war. And, by definition, that’s sort of what an “anocracy” — which is what the United States is now — is: we’re transitioning away from democracy into an autocracy.
According to Barbara F. Walter, that’s one of the causes of a civil war — if a country in between democracy and autocracy the country is so unstable that if things go wrong, it descends into political violence up to and including an actual civil war.
But, for the moment, I just don’t see the United States have a civil war. There will be a huge amount of chatter from both political extremes about there possibly being one, but, in the end, the American center-Left is just to weak willed. In the end, Blue States will bend a knee to MAGA fascists. Hordes of wealthy American liberals will flee the country to the point that Fox News will replace scary brown caravans at the border with the “brain drain.” So many wealthy American liberals may flee the newly autocratic States that it transforms global culture in a way not seen since the fall of Constantinople. The globe will be awash in American culture and ideals in an unprecedented manner.
All of this, of course, may be happening in the context of the final collapse of the post-WW2 liberal global order. If the United States pulls itself out of NATO and various other places around the world, then a number of regional wars will break out to the point that it will be marketed as WW3. America could align itself with a series of other autocratic states. I could see, maybe, the US, Hungary, Turkey and Russia starting their own NATO-like alliance. Meanwhile, of course, China could do a smash and grab operation against Taiwan.
But the key issue is — we just don’t know what is going to happen. At the moment, the idea of political violence in the United States is totally bonkers. As such, something pretty big would have to change for the type of civil war that I imagine might happen, to happen. I will admit, of course, that the conditions are there for a civil war.
And, yet, I don’t know. Given that it’s probably going to be Blues who start a civil war if there is one, I just don’t see it happening. There is, of course, the issue of Trump. He’s such a malignant dignus that he could, unto himself, start a civil war.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
In the ever consolidating media world, it seems to me that just as Disney bought Fox’s entertainment properties, NBCUniversal is going to merge with Warner Bros. Discovery. And, yet, that opens up a very important question — who will buy CNN?
The most obvious answer is Amazon. Jeff Bezos owning both the Washington Post and CNN would make a lot of sense. And, yet, I think it was malignant goober Josh Hawley who said, “Nope!” Some of CNN’s fate would be determined by if we were an autocracy or not when it was being shopped around.
If it’s President DeSantis we’re talking about, then I could see some wealthy MAGA dickhead swooping in and buying it so they can turn CNN into more of Fox News clone than it already is. I suppose if magically we managed not to either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy that maybe Laurene Powell Jobs might get into the act.
The thing about it is, I don’t think any of us realize how things we taken for granted might be either be paused or thrown up in the air between now and January 2025. We have to start factoring in what a fucking shit show late 2024, early 2025 is likely to be. Everything could change to the point that “Who is going to own CNN?” will seem rather quaint.
Trump is a very unique historical and political figure. He’s so unique because almost anyone else in his position would not have lost the 2020 election. Anyone with a modicum of abstract thought and gumption would have sealed the deal at some point no later than, say, August 2020.
It’s a testament to how stupid and lazy and Trump is that he waited until the very, very, very last part of the process to try to stay in power. And, what’s more, his entire plot rested on one man — Mike Pence — doing his bidding. He didn’t really have much of a backup plan.
Anyway, the reason why I bring all this up is I — and a lot of other people — are notorious for overestimating Trump’s ability to actually implement all the tyrannical things he obviously is thinking about all the time. So, take the following with a grain of salt — it’s possible that Trump neither has the power I’m assuming he does nor has the mental facilities necessary to think in such a diabolical manner.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Having said all that, I don’t think we’re going to have any sort of civil war. I think Blue states will ultimately bend a knee and we will become a MAGA autocracy. The only question then, of course, will be if we stop around Hungary politically, or if we endup somewhere closer to be a Russia / Nazi Germany clone.
Only time will tell. Good luck.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
In general terms, Great Britain is Europe’s last multi-ethnic nation. I’m no expert on British politics, but the news that heating prices in the UK will jump a whopping 80% this winter is cause for alarm. That’s the stuff of revolutions. In fact, revolutions typically happen in a country when there is a problem with basic necessities — like heating.
So, this particular scenario writes itself. Britain has its first serious cold snap and millions of Brits aren’t able to properly heat their homes. They freak out and hit the streets. Then, the general divisions in the UK among the different ethnic groups begin to become more noticeable. What’s worse, the general unease the population feels about the imminent, inevitable demise of Queen Elizabeth also starts to come into play.
But, let me be clear — I’m always wrong. Always. As such, it’s possible that despite the shock to the British political system, they will use the old British stiff upper lip to muddle through.
And, yet, one reason why I’m concerned about the fate of Great Britain is the United States and Great Britain historically are in lock step. Major political trends can happen in one and then show up in the other after a few years. In the 1970s, there was the Thatcher Revolution and then in 1981 there was the Reagan Revolution. The US had Trump and then the UK got Boris Johnson.
I am therefore worried that if something dramatic happens in Great Britain — a Great Reset, if you will — then a similar instability will occur here in the United States. A lot of macro trends are coming to a head in the United States in the general late 2024, early 2025 timeframe.
If I was writing for VOX, I would, at this point, give you an explainer about What It All Means and how you can protect you and your family. But, lulz, I have no idea. Good luck.
Trump is so dumb and his political instincts such a grunt, that the idea that his MAGA appointed judge handling the NARAlago raid would grant him a Special Master is a serious red flag. There is a good chance that somehow, someway the granting of a Special Master will be how Trump escapes on both a political and criminal basis.
I say this because Trump was so late in asking for a Special Master that ostensibly the whole issue is moot — the FBI has used it’s own taint team to look through the files and sort everything out. So, the judges’ granting of a Special Master seems like shenanigans. Something that we’ll look back upon and says, “Well, we should have known that Trump would escape again.”
And even if you’re charitable and give the Trump-appointed the benefit of the doubt and say she’s giving Trump his Special Master because she’s afraid he’ll turn on her and sick the MAGA hordes on her — that’s pretty dark, too.
All of this is yet another sign that Trump is above the law and we have the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025. It definitely looks as though Trump is going to escape yet again and be the 2024 Republican nominee. Either he starts a civil war because he brazenly steals the 2024 election or his agenda for is second term is so radical that states like California start heading for the doors.
Regardless, as I keep saying, the United States as we know it now is either going to fade away into autocracy or we’re going to have a massive reset that will be something akin to a reactionary MAGA “revolution” or civil war.
The issue of the moment is if Trump will pay any — any — political price for stealing dozens of Top Secret documents. At the moment, I don’t think so. I think he’s going to get away with it. And if he doesn’t there is a real risk of unpreceded political violence.
Things are so fucked up right now with American politics that the most logical outcome is Trump potentially causing the death of CIA agents will be that the MAGA New Right not only shrugs it off, but clings ever tighter to Trump. I am growing seriously concerned that we’re going to reached something akin to a political Upside Down where Trump goes transactional and single handedly starts a civil war in the United States.
The only reason why NARAlago happened in the first place is Trump simply refused to do what he was asked to do when it was done politely. It’s just not in Trumps nature to abide by what any other normal person would do in a similar situation. So, because he’s a malignant idiot, he forced the Federal government to swoop in and take what they couldn’t otherwise get.
But, again, I think we’re mistaking that for any sort of likelihood that Trump will ultimately be held accountable in a court of law. In the end, NARAlago will simply increase the partisan divisions in the United States and be forgotten except for a few of the usual suspects on Twitter.
As I keep saying, there are a number of instances where Trump could single handedly start a civil war in the United States. If he is the 2024 Republican nominee instead of DeSantis, the risk of a civil war grows significantly because of how radical his second term agenda will be.
It definitely seems as though this is the nadir of the year. All the wealthy liberals are preparing for Burning Man where they hope to do anonymous butt stuff with some random Plebe. Meanwhile, this could be the calm before the storm for everyone else.
A lot of “thought leaders” are so tuned out at the moment that when they finally jack back into the world in early September that the various crisis we are dealing with at the moment will lurch forward. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of the 2022 midterms.
If Republicans gain power again, we are all very, very fucked. It’s going to get really dark really quick. Remember, there is always a chance that Trump might demand to be Speaker of the House, especially if you think about how there’s at least a chance that he might face an indictment. (I find this very dubious, however.)
What will become clear in January 2023 if Republicans gain control of the House is how quickly they will move to impeach both Biden and Harris just for existing. And, what’s more, as I’ve written before, they might get so excited that they impeach Biden accidently on purpose. At least the first time. There is a lot of bent up rage within the fascist MAGA Republicans to get revenge on Democrats about impeachment and, as such, Biden and Harris will be impeached simply out of momentum.
So, as I keep saying, I suggest you enjoy these last few days of living in a semi-functioning democracy (anocracy.) America remains a nation on edge and there’s a good chance that things will grow very, very bumpy a lot sooner than you might think.
I don’t know anything about anything. I’m often, if not usually, wrong. But here, nonetheless, is my hot take on the question of the moment — “Will Trump be indicted?”
No. I don’t think he will be. I think, in the end, this will be just another Bad Thing that is baked into the cake when it comes to Trump. I say this because it’s clear that Republicans have done a gut check and since the base is fired up about what happend — and not in a good way — they have decided to hunker down and cling to Trump even tighter.
Now, remember, Trump is a very complex historical figure because not only is he just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage, he also refuses to get out of the way to DeSantis can finish the job he started. What’s more, even if he did get out of the way, then, like I said, we’re doomed in a different way. DeSantis (or someone like him) will become America’s first autocrat and that will be that. We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why DeSantis is still president. We’ll also wonder why we have to use VPN to watch the BBC talk about how horrible things are in the United States.
The other alternative, obviously, is civil war. And if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then the likelihood of a National Divorce grows dramatically because he always says the “quiet part out loud.” He will cheat to win the 2024 election, even if he doesn’t have to. Trump is such a chaos agent that there are not one but three ways he could start a civil war.
If he got indicted, I could totally see him go transactional and demand Red states begin the process of leaving the Union. Texas’ autocratic state government already talks like it has one foot out the door as it is. Just by calling up a Secessionist Convention, Texas would spook the Federal government to the point that they would ultimately shy away from doing anything with Trump criminally.
Meanwhile, there remains the lingering possibility that Trump will demand to be the Speaker of the House should Republicans take Congress in the fall. Even though I’m notorious for overestimating Trump’s mental abilities, even with his political grunt tendencies, I could see him use the threat of Red States leaving the Union as a bludgeon against Blue Senators when the inevitable impeachment trials of Biden and Harris happen.
The third way Trump might personally start a Second American Civil War would be as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. Either he so brazenly steals the election that Blue States begin to leave the Union or his second term agenda is so radical that that, unto itself, is enough to push Blue states — starting with California — out of the Union.
So, no, I don’t think Trump will be held accountable in any way for stealing America’s top secrets. We’re careening towards a very, very dark fate of either civil war or autocracy and this particular severe crisis will be just among the top five or so worst things Trump has done since 2015.
I just don’t think the recent revelations regarding Trump and secret documents at Mar-a-Lago will break the MAGA fever dream. Two things are at work. One is, MAGA is a fascist movement that is the result of a number of deep seated, structural problem with the United States. There’s just no way to abate the rise of white Christian rage. That’s why we face — most likely in 2024 – 2025 — the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
We may all be antifa soon enough.
Meanwhile, there is the issue of Trump himself. We’ve reached the point where virtually everyone in American politics is doing some wish-casting in regards to Trump potentially not running for office in 2024. Everyone from Ron DeSantis, who is salivating over the prospect of being America’s first autocrat to your rabid Leftist simply would prefer Trump to retire and stop being the political monster that he is.
But he’s just not going anywhere. If he’s indicted, then he announces his 2024 run earlier than he might otherwise. And if he’s not indicted, then he runs because he is above the law and he has a very radical National Socialist-like agenda to enact in his second term.
And one thing I would like to point out — we can’t mistake the Federal government finally getting fed up and raiding Mar-a-Lago for any indication that their going to do anything else. It could be that given the political implications of indicting someone like Trump they will choke and simply hope for the best.
I say this because there a very real chance that Trump could go transitional if he is indicted. Even though Trump is a lazy idiot and I wonder if he has enough abstract thought abilities to handle destroying the United States, maybe being indicted will focus his mind. My fear is that Trump will begin to rant that Red states need to leave the Union so he can live his life in peace. States like Texas would definitely take him up on such a suggestion because it’s a state with a very autocratic government.
The Federal government knows all of this and so I think in the end that Trump is going to escape — again. This is going to be just thing about Trump baked into the cake and that’s it. This will set up the 2024 battle royale between MAGA fascism and a bunch of still-clueless liberals. Which way things go — autocracy or civil war — I still can’t game out.
I do know, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee we are in deep, deep trouble. The prospect of civil war, with Blues leaving the Union increases significantly. DeSantis is enough of a “normal” politician that he could hoodwink the people necessary to become POTUS and gradually strangle democracy.
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