Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Curious Case of MAGA’s January 6th Insurrection Logic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to you, but there’s absolutely nothing the January 6th Committee can find out that will mean jack shit long term. For macro reasons, Republicans will sweep Congress, impeach Biden and Harris (repeatedly) and set the stage for the epic existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025.

Having said that, it is very interesting the logic that MAGA uses when it comes to what we all saw on January 6th. There logic, what there is, goes something like this: a combination of Antifa and the FBI organized a small group of informants to do the parts that make us look bad, while the parts that we like were done by patriots who simply wanted to “Stop the Steal.”

It’s tough to even get MAGA people to admit that the protesters were armed. You have to get very specific and pin them down that a pole, too, can be considered a form of armament. Meanwhile, other MAGA people want us to believe that just a “small portion” of the insurrectionists were to blame and, lulz, most of Trump’s policies were great, thank go Ron DeSantis will be the 2024 Republican nominee.

It’s all very, very fucking annoying and points to a very dark future ahead of us. When the autocracy comes there will be people in my family who will have one red line and one red line only — ME. When ICE (or whatever) snatches me off the street for saying President Mike Pompeo is still a fat fuck no matter how much weight he’s lost, THEN they will get upset.

Ugh.

But if that doesn’t happen, we’re going to have a civil war and we’re going to bomb ourselves into oblivion.

I’m Growing Concerned About The Imminent Threat Of WW3



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the likelihood of some sort of mistake leading to a shooting war between NATO and Russia is growing every day. I always thought that if WW3 happened it would be because China invaded Taiwan or the DPRK invaded South Korea.

But given how aggressive NATO is being, it definitely seems as though something might go wrong and there could be the nightmare scenario of an actual shooting war between NATO and the Russian bear. Everyone involved would have a reason not to go nuclear, but that doesn’t mean a lot of people might not die in the process.

Or, put another way, some sort of limited nuclear exchange might happen between NATO and Russia — think what might have happened had the Cuban Missile Crisis gotten hot. If something like that happened, then all my hysterical doom shit about the rise of fascism in the United States definitely would take on a different context.

Just the EMP alone of a major American city being vaporized would be enough to change life for the millions who didn’t die in the blast itself. I’m just nervous in general, I guess.

These continue to be unprecedented times.

The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War’s Impending WW1 Endgame — We Have To Prepare For The Violent Collapse Of Putin’s Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.

It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.

Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.

I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.

So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.

But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.

Anocracy In America: Only Trump Can Stop Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at This Point


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You’re a fool if you think Ron DeSantis isn’t probably going to be the next president of the United States. As of right now, he’s got a straight shot at becoming America’s Putin. He will gradually at first, then more and more quickly, strangle American democracy and we’ll wake up in 20 years with him still being president.

But there are still some obstacles to him becoming America’s Putin. First of all, there’s Trump. Either Trump destroys DeSantis politically, or the two come to some agreement whereby DeSantis is Trump’s veep and ultimate successor. The latter is a win-win for both Trump and DeSantis, but Trump is so stupid and lazy that I could easily see Trump naming someone really crazy like Mike Flynn to be his veep.

Then we really would have something to cry about.

Another wildcard is the Russo-Ukrainian War. If it escalates into something closer to WW3, then there is a small chance that everything will be so changed that Biden or Harris (or name a Democrat) might be in a position to leverage that particular clusterfuck to at least punt the existential choice of autocracy or civil war down the road one more presidential election cycle.

But the point is — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. No one is going to save us and at this point, the only question is who is going to be America’s Putin. We can only punt the fall of our democracy down the road for so long.

It’s growing more and more obvious that, tragically, the only hope of saving our democracy may be the high risk, high reward option of civil war. But there are no assurances that there would be a pat endgame. Things could be very muddled and the world will fly past a broken America.

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.

I Was Right, Kinda


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I was right about there being something of a Republican civil war because of Ukraine, with the MAGA base following the lead of Trump and the Republican Establishment wanting to support Ukraine.

And, yet, I suspect it’s never going to come up to the point of a “civil war.” I think there will just be a lot of tension between the two groups. Remember, Trump can always take his scrambled marbles — the base — and go home if the Establishment gets too frisky.

So, ultimately, what will happen is Republicans rather than have any civil war will simply ignore that they’re trying to square the circle in the first place. Trump, his toadies and the base will continue to suck Putin’s cock and the Republican Establishment will continue to support Ukraine against Russia. Because everything is dumb, both things will be true and Republicans won’t event acknowledge this existential conflict.

The MAGA New Right Sure Is Chomping At The Bit To Start Political Violence, Aren’t They?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, my Traditionalist relatives have, on occasion, asked me if I forswear political violence. Which is both dumb and insulting. Of course I’m against political violence! Jesus Christ!

The fact that the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to start a civil war makes this question even more idiotic. Even a Traditionalist who has “tuned out” from politics should know by now that there are a number of conservative thought leaders who really, really, want an excuse to murder people like me in cold political blood.

So, instead of worrying about ME wanting political violence, I think my Traditionalist relatives need to get their own home in order. Or is that just “bogus?” For those of you who aren’t into debate nullification when you’re losing, just look at what’s going on with Canada’s trucker crisis.

That crisis is going to come to the US soon enough. And, as I understand it, March 3rd — for some reason — could be some sort of successor to January 6th. I don’t know the details, but that’s what I’m seeing on Twitter. This is a developing and potentially very unstable situation. It could be like January 6th, only much, much worse.

Anyway. We need to be aware that the MAGA New Right may very well force the issue. The question then will be is how receptive people are to fucking shit up when the MAGA New Right decides to see if they can bring down the government through a General Strike or some such. (Especially in the context of this potentially happening — and working — in Canada.)

And the craziest part of all of this is if they would just be peaceful and patient, they could get everything — and I mean everything — they wanted through peaceful political means. Everything is there. All they have to do is just not blow it all by starting a civil war.

And, yet, here we are.

I’m going back to the five novels I’m working on that no one in my family cares about — they won’t even read anything I write even when I ask them to!

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Of Trump & Classified Documents



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It takes a lot more than it did for Trump to make me angry. And my Traditionalists relatives think I’m being “hysterical” for thinking Trump is going to run again — especially if he gets into serious legal trouble — so, meh. Their only red line is personal when it comes to Trump — and by personal, I mean me dead in a ditch at the hands of ICE. THEN, and only THEN they will get upset about what an autocrat Trump is.

Then I’ll be dead.

And I won’t be “hysterical” anymore because I’ll be dead.

Fuck that, by the way.

Anyway, the news that Trump did on a massive scale exactly what Hillary Clinton was accused of when it came to classified documents enrages me. Makes me white hot with rage. Makes me pop a gasket with rage. Makes me want to throw myself into the five novels that no one in my family cares about. (That was the point of writing the novels in the first place — to give myself some outlet for my center-of-the-sun-rage over the Trump Administration.)

What makes me so angry is every argument that my Traditionalists relatives would make to knee-jerk defend Trump because they hate my politics could be used to defend Hillary Clinton in 2016. But any argument that I make that works too well is “bogus.”

The thing that makes all of this worse is, in the end, Trump’s eating of classified documents, his flushing them down the toilet, will only last less than one news cycle. So, Hillary’s “but her emails” lasted for months and months and months and Trump doing far, far worse is just a blip on the media scene.

I do have one question — what, exactly, were the nature of the classified documents Trump wanted to keep? Was he stealing specific documents that had to do with Russia, Ukraine, the DPRK or the Saudis? If any of those nations were involved, well, that takes the controversy to the next level.

Then it will be promptly forgotten. Trump runs again, (“No he won’t,” I hear you say.) wins and I get to be hysterical and peddling doom shit again.

Oh well.

The Case For Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, a Second American Civil War would be very destructive and very, very dumb. The people who seem to talk about it all the time in terms of a “National Divorce,” the fucking MAGA New Right cocksuckers, are the ones who can get everything they want peacefully by just being patient.

If there is going to be a Second American Civil War, it will be caused not by the MAGA New Right, but by the Blue States — probably starting with California — attempting to leave the Union. It would happen at the weakness moment of the new American Autocracy’s establishment – at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

California leaving the Union would trigger a civil war as other Blue States left the Union, taking huge swaths of the Federal Army with them, just like in the original Civil War. Then both sides seize WMD and we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age of our own volution.

So, what possible case is there for a civil war?

All I got is it would be a high risk, high reward way of fixing some systemic problems in the United States. But it only works if there is a pat ending to it like the first Civil War. If the ending is open ended or vague or muddled, then, well, maybe we should all just try to make do in an autocracy — or leave the country if we can.

A Second American Civil War would only make sense if the war aims of the Blue States were to spread the liberal-progressive ideals of California to the entire United States. This, of course, would cause maybe 10% of the Red State population to simply leave the United States and we would have to figure out how to address all that, too.

It would probably take at least 20 to 40 years for the United States (or whatever it’s call at that point) to recover from a WMD-tipped Second American Civil War. So, I honestly can’t think of any reason why we should have a civil war. If you have the ability to get out of the country as we slip peacefully into autocracy under a President Pompeo (or name a would-be autocrat), do so.

God speed.

The MAGA New Right’s Continued Delusional Belief of a Coming Fascist ‘Revolution’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know what’s happening. Good old boys, angry at this or that thing they feel liberal-progressives are doing to “force” them to become radicalized, think up the worst thing they can to do to liberals. They snap their fingers and say, “Revolution!”

But that’s not really how things work, if history is any guide.

Fascist, in general, usually don’t seize power as part of a “revolution.” In fact, most of the time, they just win elections and never let go of power. Anyway. Even in Canada, where they’re some instability from truckers camping out in protest of vaccine mandates, I don’t seen any kind of Right wing “revolution.” A coup of some sort, maybe that might prompt a civil war, but not a “revolution.”

The point is — things are not great right now in the Anglophone world. In fact, I think there may be a point when future historians look back upon this era as the “Crisis of Anglophone Civilization.” The fascists are ascendant and, in the end, barring something I can’t expect — like a civil war where the Blue liberal-progressives win — we’re in for a New Era, where the Anglophone world is no longer associated with Western democracy.

Lulz. There are no easy answers on this one. If even the polite people of Canada are having problems with Right wing nutjobs, then Anglophone civilization is facing some systemic problems that are going to have long-lasting consequences for everyone on this little blue marble in space.