Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Great Restructuring & Trump’s Ultimate Political Fate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Nixon was he was safe until he wasn’t. The economy went to shit just as Watergate was accelerating and it was the economy more than anything else that cooked his political goose in the end.

But there are a lot of differences between Nixon and Trump, to say the least. Trump is an autocratic tyrant without any honor, without any shame and getting that man out of office is going to be like pulling a huge fucking tick off a hound dog.

So, AI could prompt the Great Restructuring, the economy could take a nose dive…and nothing will happen. Trump will still run for an illegal third term, or he could even go so far as to YOLO it and ignore any election altogether. I’m still not so sure he would *cancel* an election, but he might fuck with whatever elections we have in 2026 and 2028 to the point that they’re meaningless.

The point is — we’re stuck with Trump. He’s going to destroy everything, burn everything to the ground before he will willingly leave office. And the American center-Left is so meh that they probably will let him do it, too.

But there is, of course, a small chance that if Trump really does go as far as I fear, that the country will implode into civil war or revolution. So, there you go!

The Great Restructuring

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given some of the layoff news of late, I’m beginning to wonder if some of my “hysterical doom shit” when it comes to AI’s scrambling of the corporate work world may actually be coming true.

I have long proposed that once AI was “good enough” that if we went into a recession, it would be come a severe one because of it. All this talk about “10x” employees sounds to my ears like an ready excuse to get rid of a shit ton of employees because you can squeeze a lot more productivity out of those that you have.

Now, obviously, this leads to the idea that we need Universal Basic Income. But the only way I see such a thing happening is if we “bribe” the elites by doing away with income tax and switching over to something like a 30% VAT. That’s pretty much what happened with stimulus checks during the pandemic — poor people got their stimmies, while the rich got their PPP loans forgiven.

Or, given how fucked up the world is, nothing may bring about UBI. The idea of UBI could be seen as a lulz and we anyone who isn’t in AI just starves to death. Good times!

And I will note — with the rise of androids with LLMs (or whatever) in them, not even blue collar jobs will be safe…eventually. In fact, the whole point of LLM androids will be to get rid of plumbers or Amazon truck drivers or whatever. There just won’t be any jobs and it will all happen a lot sooner than any of us could possible imagine.

Like, between now and 2030.

A Nation On Edge (Or Maybe It’s Just Me)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel bad juju in the air right now. I feel like people are on edge. Maybe it’s the lingering government shut down. Maybe it’s all the talk on Trump’s part of running for a third term.

Or, maybe, it’s just me.

Maybe I just feel on edge because I know my life is about to change rather dramatically pretty soon. In a really sucky way. All I have to cling to is this scifi dramedy novel I’m working on.

That gives me hope, if nothing else.

The United States Is Unstable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t quite know what to make of the United States at the moment. All the Republicans do, it seems, is cheat and the two sides grow more and more radical. Though, to be fair, Republicans have gone full-blown fascist while the center-Left remains pretty limp wristed.

In, fact, I would go so far as to say whenever the center-Left is willing to mano-to-mano with the MAGA Right, that’s when the country will implode into civil war or revolution. I have a growing sense that whatever happens is going to be more like a revolution than a civil war in the sense that the war aims of the Blues will be to topple Trump’s regime rather than to leave the Union altogether.

And it definitely seems as though the tipping point will be either the 2026 midterms or the 2028 presidential election. If Trump fucks with either one of those elections to the point that it’s clear they’re not free-and-fair, then anything is possible.

I really don’t want a civil war or revolution. I would much rather try to get my scifi dramedy novel published while waiting for the technological Singularity than to find myself dodging bullets or bombs.

Man, Is The ‘Resistance Media’ Complex Clueless

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I run a lot of scenarios in my mind and right now it seems as though things are a lot more urgent in the United States than the “resistance” media complex might lead you to believe.

They’re so busy sucking their own cock about this or that dumb thing that they totally miss that we may have a revolution or civil war in 2026 or 2028 because Trump severely fucks with the Federal elections set for those years.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of Trump potentially balking at leaving office altogether, or maybe running for a third term.

Things really are that dire.

As such, maybe Crooked Media and The Lincoln Project might stress to their audience that they need to gird their loins for the catastrophic disaster that might happen sooner rather than later.

I really hope I’m wrong. I would prefer not to dodge bullets or bombs and be a domestic political refugee.

My Hot Take On Trump & The Epstein Files

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m of the opinion that there is no there there when it comes to Trump being in the Epstein Files. I think Trump knew damn well what Epstein was doing and did nothing.

But he did not actively participate in the evils that Epstein was doing on his island or whatever. So, all this bruhaha over the files is kind of like how Saddam would not like WMD inspectors into the country to poke around, even though there were no WMD there to be begin with.

It’s all ego on Trump’s part. And a paranoia that whatever is in the Epstein Files will make him look bad in some way. But not in the way we all hope where the Epstein Files are some sort of silver bullet for fucking MAGA.

I really hate MAGA. I really do. Bunch of fucking cocksuckers.

Any Second American Revolution or Civil War Would Probably Make Our Lives Like The Movie ‘Threads’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t think the human mind can comprehend how horrific a Second American Civil War or Revolution might be. If things got as bad as I fear, we would be living in a real world ‘Threads’ movie.

Society would collapse, there would be Killing Fields, camps, extensive use of WMD by both sides. It would just be horrible. And, yet, here we are, with some on both sides chomping at the bit to have at it.

I just hope we muddle through. I really do. Even though I write all the time about civil war or revolution, I don’t actually want such a thing to happen. I’m just trying to make my abstract fears concrete.

Anyway. I have my doubts about us making it through 2026 or 2028. In both instances, I fear Trump will severely fuck with the Federal elections to the point that the country collapses in on itself.

Ugh.

Interestingly, The Criticism of ‘One Battle After Another’ Is Mostly Coming From The Left

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just imagine how much money One Battle After Another could have made if it had been thrown into the maw of the culture wars as a cultural touchstone for both sides. Just one tweet on Trump’s part could have really made a difference in the movie’s box office income.

But that, for the most part, did not happen.

Yet what did happen was the Left has gotten angry over the film, in large part because they think 1) the movie portrays black women poorly 2) they are irate that white critics give it the praise they believe Sinners should get.

In fact, there was a Big Picture podcast in which the whole debate pretty much revolved around point number two. The Leftist criticizing OBAA didn’t really flat out say he thought the movie’s reception was racist, but he came pretty damn close.

Anyway. One Battle After Another is a good movie. Go see it.

So, Chat, Are We Having A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Editor’s Note: This is just me, a rando in the middle of nowhere musing about this possible event that seems to be on everyone’s mind. So, take it for what it’s worth.

Short answer: Maybe. I can’t predict the future.
Long Answer:

Ok, all the conditions, all the metrics are there for either a civil war or revolution in the United States. There are centrifugal political forces that seem to be spinning out of control and it seems like it would just take the right catalyst for the country to implode into civil war or revolution.

There are two things to take into consideration.

One is, since the first Civil War ended in 1865, the US is notorious for just muddling through, no matter how bad things get. So, lulz? Maybe somehow, even though Trump definitely wants to declare martial law and maybe call off the 2026 and or 2028 elections, we somehow will just…muddle through.

The second issue is I think Trump really is a Russian agent and he seems hell bent on destroy the country I love. He keep’s a line stepper. He’s a one man stress test of American political and public social life.

So, the case could be made that he will, on purpose, push us to the breaking point and there will be a civil war between now and, say, 2029. But it could happen a lot sooner.

One issue that we to address is if a Second Civil War does happen, it’s going to suck. WMD will be used by both sides. Of particular interest to Reds would be using tactical (I hope — no need for strategic nukes! ) nukes on Blue cities in Red States. So, I could see, say, Atlanta being bombed into rubble so all the fucking Nazi MAGA cocksuckers could overrun it.

So, in general I don’t want either a civil war or a revolution.

But are we going to have one? Maybe. It’s possible, not probable.

I May Have Voted In My Last Free & Fair Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I voted in the Virginia elections happening this fall and I paused to soak up the idea that this might be the last free-and-fair election I vote in for the rest of my life.

It’s kind of sorry I have to think about that, but, lulz, that’s what we got.

The USA is no longer free. That’s just a matter of fact.

I still worry about how bad things are going to get. I worry about ME. I mean, it’s just a matter of time before even randos like me catch the attention of our autocratic regime.