Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Fourth Turning Of 2025 & The Radical Moderates Of The Second American Civil War



by Ender

The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.

Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.

In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.

And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.

The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.

But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.

I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.

One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.

I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.

What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.

All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”

Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.

I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?

The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.

If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.

But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.

It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.

Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.

But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.

Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.

Thinking The Unthinkable: A Creative Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since 9/11, a lot of people far smarter than me have wargamed every possible creative way the US might be attacked by international terrorists. But, at the moment, that seems rather quaint.

If we’re going to get attacked in some coordinated manner, we’re probably going to get attacked by a deranged group of MAGA New Right people. At the moment, on first glance, it seems as though if a small cadre of committed conspirators went after the US government with the aim of getting Trump back in office they just could not pull it off.

The chief issue is — the line of presidential succession is, at the moment, all Democrats. But, just today, something happened and I grew alarmed.

Because the Senate is split 50 / 50, if you were an evil cabal of coup plotters with enough organization, you actually could successfully stage a coup in the United States.

The moment you, God forbid, knock Vice President Harris out of the picture after Biden, she would no longer be there to break a tie and, the case could be made that Sen. Grassely would become president pro tempore of the Senate and, as such if you’ve successfully knocked out Speaker Pelosi, he would become president.

Then, citing his advanced age, he named Trump his veep and steps down.

Or, at the very least, if the attack happened very quickly the moment you had successfully knocked out Biden, Harris and Pelosi (how you could possibly effect this, I have no idea) the country would be thrown into a huge, lingering chaos because Republicans would say Grassley is president while Democrats would say Sen. Leahy was.

The issue would be so up in the air that that, in itself, could potentially start a civil war.

The above is all very speculative and dark. But it’s something to think about.

The Sumner Endgame: Thinking The Unthinkable In Congress


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, if you like my personal brand of “hysterical doom shit,” then I got my new favorite fear to talk to you about: a member of Congress pulling out a gun and shooting their peers.

Back to the future?

Now, obviously, there are two people who are the most obvious suspects for this future and hopefully forever abstract fear: Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.

Both of them have the means, motive and opportunity to stage a mass causality event on the House floor. Green already runs around getting into heated arguments with her peers as it is. It’s not too much to imagine her, at some point, taking it to the next level and using a gun to intimidate — or worse. But they are just the most conspicuous — there are probably a dozen MAGA New Right Representatives who could grow deranged enough to do it.

It makes you wonder what the reaction would be if something like that did happen. Before the January 6th Insurrection, I would have been able to give you a pat answer of the country would be outraged and for a moment we would all be united in grief.

Lulz!

Now, I think the bodies would still be warm on the House chamber floor when Bannon and others would begin to spin how the murders were “justified” because “liberals drove the person to it.”

Or, as the esteemed Jesse Kelly would say, “Welcome to the New Right!”

The two sides would inhabit their echo chambers with talking points and spin and there would even be a bi-partisan commission of why the event happened. The even would just be another data point towards are march to GQP autocratic managed democracy or some sort of civil war.

Do I think something so horrible might happen? That’s a tough one. The conditions are there for something like that to happen. But that doesn’t mean jack shit. The mood of the country is growing darker by the moment for various reasons, so anything is possible.

But, for the time being, this really is just “hysterical doom shit.” I think if it did happen it would probably be at some point after the GQP took flipped Congress. Or, maybe if the House was controlled by Democrats by a 1 or 2 seat margin. I know we’re just about there now, but the idea that a Congress person would murder their colleagues is so dark I want to give myself some “hope” that that won’t happen anytime soon.

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Wake Me Up When Congressional Democrats Have The Balls To Invoke ‘Inherent Contempt’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me indulge myself in some of my usual “hysterical doom shit.” Tonight, a lot of the usual Twitter liberal suspects are all excited that the January 6th Commission has subpoena a clutch of Trump associated who were involved in the January 6th Insurrection.

To me, this is no boom. It’s a lulz.

Steve Bannon, among those who are going to ignore Congress.

History has shown that all the people that Congress has subpoenaed will either ignore it or fight it in the courts. There is only one way they will show up — and even then they will invoke the 5th — and that’s if House Democrats used Congress’ “inherent contempt” powers.

The only way we would get to the “I plead the 5th point” would be if they got fined and stuck in the tiny Capitol brig for a few weeks until they broke. We’re not exactly dealing with people who give a shit about allowing the public find out the truth about their nefarious January 6th plans.

The reason why House Democrats won’t do what they should do, is they know the moment they break the modern seal on the use of inherent contempt, that’s the moment that House Republicans will use it when they inevitable begin to impeach Biden and Harris in January 2023.

Republicans are so radicalized on an institutional level, that they’re just biding their time until they have power again. Once they do — and they inevitable will get power again — that’s it. The end of the Republic. That’s hysterical doom shit, but the only reason why that might not be the case is at first things won’t seem to change much.

Because traditional “personal responsibility” Republicans don’t notice anything has changed, it could be years before they sit up and taken notice that, “Hey, this kind of sucks.”

But by that point, it will be too late — or we’ll have had a civil war, bombed ourselves into the stone age and there will be some sort of massive political “reset” where we get back to the usual non-existential ebb-and-flow of a traditional liberal democracy.

Anyway, the point is — we’re fucked. Get your affairs in the real world. Decide what’s important to you and how much you’re willing to suffer for what you believe in. Bannon isn’t going anywhere and in the end, either we peacefully slip into some form of a “Very American Autocracy” or we have a fucking civil war.

But good luck on getting anyone around Trump to talk unless you’re willing to use inherent contempt.

Let’s Talk Bannon’s Podcast Interview With John Eastman


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I listened to Steve Bannon’s recent interview with the would-be architect of Trump’s overthrow of the results of the 2020 election and found it very interesting for a number of reasons.

Steve Bannon

One reason was I got the sense Eastman was sweating things a little bit. Since he would never allow himself to be interviewed by someone who was an actual journalist, he turned to his (literal) partner in crime Steve Bannon. Eastman did what anyone with his background would do given the situation: he took a very lawyerly take on what was being said about him.

And he knew there would be absolutely no pushback to whatever bullshit he pulled out of his lawyerly butt, so he pushed the conflation of events as far as he could. He said that it was all a big misunderstanding and he felt if only the full memo he wrote was in the spotlight like the scary six point memo he wrote, then, lulz, we can all smoke a cigar, bang a hot chick and get back to making sure American peacefully transitions into a white Christian ethno state. (Those may not be his exact words, wink.)

But the fact remains that he did, in fact, plot with Bannon and others to overthrow the free and fair 2020 election. Eastman contended that there was all this proof that illegal votes were cast and, as such, what he proposed was all above board.

This, my gentle reader, is bullshit.

Eastman, for all his bona fides was “yadda yadda yadda-ing” what was really going on, which is much like how the actual six point memo itself reads.

So, while the interview was interesting, it was not exactly newsbreaking. We’re still careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in January 2025 and there still isn’t going to be any accountability for anything Bannon — or anyone else — has done in the service of Donald Fucking Trump.

I Know What You’re Up To, Mr. Bannon


by Ender

Folks, we got a problem. I now find myself wanting to actively use my scenario abilities to counter Steve Bannon’s nefarious long-term plan: turn the United States into a white Christian autocratic ethno state.

Steve Bannon

We thought we got rid of Bannon when he self-destructed at the beginning of the Trump Administration, but lulz, we were wrong. Like a bad penny, he’s back and worst than ever. Not only did he attempt to “murder the Biden Administration in its crib” on January 6th, he is now actively working to destroy the basic norms and intuitions associated with free-and-fair elections.

The danger is what the United States lacks in the paramilitary groups like the SA that would be critical to ensuring that the fascist GQP wins elections going forward, we may make up for with Big Lie proponents being in charge of the election process in 2022 and 2024.

In other words, there won’t be sexxy violent Proud Boy attacks that cause us to turn into an American autocracy, but rather the far less sexxy corruption of what should be pretty mundane formalities. I know what’s happening — Bannon looked at what happened in the early days after Election 2020 and realized that they didn’t get what they wanted because every day people took a stand and did their jobs.

As such, he and his coterie of fascists now want to pack those jobs with Big Lie advocates at a minimum votes they don’t like won’t be certified at the local level, which opens up a huge range of possibilities as things head toward Congress.

Bannon feels that was the GQP’s biggest mistake — they let the process get too far along before they struck. This is something I have long said myself. But I thought about it in the context of it proving Trump, himself, was not a Great Man, but just an idiotic avatar for the rot within our political process.

And, yet Bannon is sort of ding-dong Trump’s strategic mind. But let me put it to you this way — Bannon may have wealth and influence, but I feel when it comes to abstract political calculations and strategic thinking, I’m his equal. We’re on opposite ends of the political spectrum — to say the least — but he’s on my radar now and I’m going to begin to map out how to counter his attack on my beloved liberal democracy.

The biggest problem is, of course, that no one listens to me.

But, if I was going to counter Bannon, I would first do triage and accept that we have to write off 2022 and or 2024 being traditional elections. My belief at the moment is that 2022 will be Bannon’s dry run for 2024. While no one listens to me, Bannon has some pretty huge weaknesses himself.

One, he’s too tied to Trump and Trump is self-evidently his own worst enemy when it comes to would otherwise be the easy peaceful transition of the United States into a GQP autocratic state. And, I believe, Bannon is way too blinded by his own fevered ideology. He really does want to suck his own political cock.

The point of all of this is — I think I’m going to start studying Mr. Bannon. Keep your friends close and your emeries closer, as they say. The reason why I say that is Bannon is actively working RIGHT NOW to ensure we become an autocracy.

Since I don’t write for VOX and have no easy answers (nor a conspicuous received English vocal fry in my Tik-Tok videos) all I got is my ability to see if I can, on an abstract level, counter what Bannon is up to.

But, again, absolutely no one listens to me.

Is The ‘Fourth Turning’ Just A Bunch Of Lucky Bullshit?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Steve Bannon’s favorite book, “The Fourth Turning,” sure does seem to jibe pretty well with my own personal prediction — the United States is in for a severe political crisis no later than around (January) 2025.

And, yet, there’s a lot of that book that seems, I don’t know, historical bullshit. It seems as though they had a idea they wanted to sell and reverse engineered things to the point that what they already believed made sense.

For instance, they themselves say that their concept of “Turnings” can’t account for when the Civil War happened. But, to be fair, you could say that the unexpected deaths of both William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor may have have somehow sped up the Civil War so it didn’t happen according to macro trends. Whenever you try “psychohistory” you can’t account for how the life — or death — of one individual changes huge macro trends.

So, I dunno.

I think some of my annoyance comes from my belief that no one can predict the future and there’s no reveled truth. I don’t like the idea that people who are lazy just want to read The Fourth Turning and somehow think they’ve got everything figured out.

And, really, the only reason why The Fourth Turning has a shot at being extremely good at predicting the future is Donald Fucking Trump. He’s sort of the potential “Great Man” who could fucking destroy the United State simply by being himself.

Anyway. Fuck Steve Bannon, that piece of shit.

No, Schlichter, We Don’t Hate You — We’re Taking You Seriously: Imagining A Very American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Don’t put me on blast Kurt Schlichter! Or, as Briar Rabbit would say, “Please don’t throw me in that briar patch.”

The reason why people like me grow “hysterical” with our “doom shit” is once you slip into autocracy, the entire dynamic of your politics changes. Suddenly, there is no longer any ebb-and-flow to it. The government becomes unmoored from any sort of influence from the populace because, well, it’s an autocracy.

You can move policy on the edges, but, in general, if you live in an autocracy, whatever the autocrat wants is what you get. And because autocracy is EXTREMELY POPULAR with the MAGA New Right base, it’s easy to imagine once it becomes clear that the United States is no longer a traditional Western democracy that things might swerve into a pretty dark direction pretty quick.

Now, there are some aspects to all of this that have to be addressed.

There’s a good chance that once the United States is considered an autocracy….that huge swaths of the American electorate will deny this is, in fact, the case. Nothing will change for them, so fuck you, lib. And as long as things, in general, stay the same — and the new autocratic regime behaves itself — people like me will continue to be “hysterical.”

But there are about 50 years of bent up rage on the part of the MAGA New Right and it’s very, very easy to imagine that at some point in, say, 2025 President DeSantis or Cotton or Hawley begins to rant about how we absolutely HAVE to have a Constitutional Convention “to pass a balance budget amendment.”

And, because we’re now an autocracy, such a convention will be convened and it will transform the United States into something a lot more like Russia. And then that’s it.

It will be over. And people like me who can’t or won’t get the hint about the New Order will get pushed out a window or throw into a Trumplandia re-education camp. I will have been right all along and the only price I get will be a bullet in the back of the head by a an ICE agent.

Now, the conservative I know would say at this point “that’s not going to happen.” When I ask them how they know this, they will say, “it just won’t.” In other words, they are resting all their assumptions on the “hope” that our new autocratic rulers will abide by the much maligned democratic “norms” that conservative have been attacking for a decade or so now.

And, of course, in the end, it won’t be until things get personal that the conservatives I know will have a “come to Jesus” moment. Then it will be too late. Then we’re living in autocratic America and I’m dead in a ditch somewhere — still very right, though!

But, how likely is it that our new autocratic overlords would abuse their unlimited power? Isn’t it possible that while Republicans will have a lock on power for the foreseeable future that they will be sure to stay within a spectrum of actions that would not rile up the “Good Germans” that would be the bedrock of their power.

This is a very good question. I suppose it’s possible that what might happen is that, yes, we’ll become a white Christian ethno state, but President Hawley will have the good graces not to purge the media. He’ll let Twitter liberals vent all they like, but because they’re so fucking powerless, from his point of view, it’s all a lulz.

I guess the difference between myself and the conservatives in my life is I would rather not have to trust insane MAGA New Right cocksuckers being gracious enough to not kill me because I absolutely won’t fucking shut up about what a piece of shit President Hawley is. They shoot writers, don’t they?

‘A Tipping Point’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy Shit

The above is a tipping point for me. It proves to me that my dystopian hellscape for late 2024 – early 2025 is probably pretty close to being accurate. As such, the time for hysterics is over. The time for “hope” is over.

The era of preperation has begun.

Now, I absolutely hate violence — hell, conflict — of any sort. I don’t want to hurt anyone for any reason. But I’m a survivor. And, in my experience, the key to surviving a crisis is to recognize that one exists.

We’re in a crisis.

It’s kind of downlow right now because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat, but we’re careening towards a stunning political crisis at some point between now and January 2025.

Now, things won’t be exactly like 2020 because the person who would be certifying the vote would be a Democrat, Vice President Harris. But that’s pretty late in the game.

Republicans — I see you Roger Stone — are actively taking a shiv to local voting boards. And if they can’t corrupt the system there, they’ll do it at the state level and if they don’t succeed in fucking things up there, they’ll object again in Congress, hoping they can throw things in some way to the House and Senate.

The point is — the above memo is a smoking gun for me. Republicans really are out to destroy our liberal democracy and we all need to start acting accordingly. I don’t write for VOX, so, lulz, I have no idea what that means in real terms.

But I do know that anyone who starts telling me they “hope” this or that thing will save us has lost me. We’re dealing with macro trends that don’t have any easy answers like “vote” or “get involved.” When you’re dealing with an opposing political force that has come to glorify political violence and, worst of all, cheats, well, what can you really do?

I don’t know.

But you can’t do nothing. You have about four years to prepare. Use your time wisely.

Fuck The MAGA New Right, Or — Untangling The Rhetorical Knot That Is Their COVID19 Talking Points


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok. This is going to take some brain power. But, here goes. When it comes to COVID, I think the MAGA New Right thinks (I use that term loosely) that it was designed in a lab in Wuhan and, as such, we should PRAISE Son Of God Donald Trump for the vaccine, but we shouldn’t take it to own the libs.

And, lib, you never know, it’s possible this is all a “plandemic” in the sense that it was big pharma who was funding the “gain of function” research in Wuhan and you don’t KNOW that Dr. Fauchi isn’t profiting personally from it, now do you? Something something something Jewish space lasers

.

Any change in behavior — however minor — to manage the pandemic is a brutal attack on lady liberty because “my body, my choice” and also you’re excited that Roe is going to be overturned soon.

To take the free vaccine would would somehow be a win to the libs and to Red China, so take Regeneron or horse dewormer instead. There can never be “Vaccine passports” or, God forbid, a vaccine mandate, even though there are a variety of existing vaccine mandates that have been on the books for generations.

The difference is mumble mumble mumble the politics are different mumble mumble and fuck you, lib.

Nothing short of reparation from China will do when it comes to COVID. And, if that doesn’t work, then nuke them and let Trump ride one of the bombs like Slim Pickins in Dr. Strangelove.

And, in the end, it’s all about “personal responsibility” and if the fucking lib still won’t shut up, just tell them “no it won’t” and claim that all the facts that they use are “bogus.”

Oh, by the way fuck Jesse Kelly.