Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Trump Continues To Prove How Fucking Bonkers He Is With The Iran War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At this point, there’s not much more to say about Trump’s mental state in relation to the Iran War that he’s currently waging. The man is totally bonkers. And has been for some time.

I don’t think Trump will use nukes or anything. And I think there’s a pretty good chance that he will just randomly declare victory and walk away, no matter what the state of play on the ground.

With Trump, anything is fucking possible.

Anyway, I really haven’t commented on the Iran War because there just isn’t much to say at the moment. I’m very much in a wait and see type situation. If things really started to escalate, then I might start to write more about it all.

The SAVE Act Is America’s Enabling Acts

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, it looks like those motherfucking Republicans are going to cheat and use the reconciliation process to pass the SAVE Act. This is an example of why everything is horrible these days.

It’s also an example of why I really want to leave the country and never look back. I may be too fucking old to have much fun, but I can at least live in a country that values democracy and liberal order ideals.

But, alas, for the time being, I’m fucking stuck in the USA which seems to be circling the fascist drain.

So, there probably won’t be a free and fair election this year. A lot of people are going to be pissed when they can’t vote. It will be a fork in the road — either there’s something like a General Strike and something changes or…we just shrug and Trump continues to consolidate power.

I think Trump is going to consolidate power without nary a peep out of anyone but the usual suspects. And that will be that. The USA will become a “managed democracy” like they have in Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

Good luck.

I Need To Hurry Up With This Novel So I Can Sell It And Get The Fuck Out Of The USA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the SAVE Act is going to pass sooner rather than later. And when that happens, the US will become a “managed democracy” like they have in Hungary, Russia or Turkey.

That will be it.

Now, obviously, to even get a literary agent will be like winning the lottery, but a guy needs dreams. And if I happened to make any amount of money with this novel, I would probably seriously consider leaving the USA and never look back.

The USA is going to grow poorer (for the average person), more inward looking and just darker in general once the SAVE Act passes and no one can vote anymore. It’s just fucking sad.

Anyway. Good luck, folks.

The End Of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the old post-WW2 liberal order is…dying. It definitely seems as though we in a new era where anything is possible. I keep expecting that Trump will drop a MOAB or tactical nuke on Iran sometime soon.

I watch the little cartoon history videos called “History Matters” and it definitely seems like this would be the part of the video that was a precursor to Something Big. I don’t know what that Something Big is going to be, but it’s probably going to happen this year.

My fear, of course, is that there’s a major terrorist attack in the USA, or Trump uses some combination of the SAVE Act and a forced “nationalization” of elections to attempt to turn the USA into a “managed democracy.” And THAT, in turn causes a civil war or revolution.

But hopefully that’s not what’s going to happen.

And, yet, I do think this year is going to be far more turbulent that any of us could possibly expect otherwise.

The SAVE Act Is Bad News

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a reason why Trump is so hysterical about passing the SAVE Act: he knows that’s how he can finally consolidate power. The SAVE Act is some serious Jim Crow bullshit.

It would be the worst piece of voter suppression, maybe in forever.

And, yet, here we are. It definitely seems like there is momentum for it to pass. And, as such, the USA is posed to become a zombie “managed” democracy like they have in Hungary, Turkey and Russia.

But we voted in Trump a second time, I guess that is what we should expect. It will be interesting to see if Trump uses the passage of the SAVE Act as a sign he can run for a third term without people really getting as nearly upset as they should.

Only time will tell on that one, I guess.

Fuck Trump, fuck ICE and fuck the SAVE Act.

It Will Probably Be A Dirty Bomb

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Iran attacks the US in the homeland, it probably will with some sort of dirty bomb. They have the means, motive and potentially opportunity do do such a thing.

I know a dirty bomb is a plot point from Blade Runner 2049, but, lulz, it’s a real possibility.

It’s just the type of fucked up shit that Trump would need to declare martial law or to just in general doing something like cancel the 2026 elections.

That’s where all of this is going, I think. And when Trump does that, then we probably have a civil war and or revolution of some sort.

Good luck.

If Trump Cancels National Elections, There Will Be A Revolution Or Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t care what Trump thinks, barring something truly extraordinary like a few nukes blowing up across the USA, Trump simply can not cancel elections. Remember, the USA had elections during the middle of a civil war.

So, if Trump used what may be WW3 as a pretext to “cancel” elections, there will b hell to pay. I would even go so far as to say if Trump fucked with elections so they were clearly no longer free and fair, then, that, too might be enough to cause some sort of mass revolt on the part of the American people.

AND, something similar would happen if Trump ran for an illegal third term.

Anyway, I’ve frequently been accused of “hysterical doom shit” so maybe all of this is a lulz.

I am, however, unnerved by the prospect of some sort major terrorist attack in the USA sooner rather than later because of the dumb war Trump has started with Iran for seemingly no damn reason.

Potentially Watching the Opening Act of World War 3

I want to be clear: I don’t think we’re in World War 3 yet. But I do think we’ve entered one of the most genuinely destabilized moments in modern geopolitical history — and the distance between “very dangerous” and “catastrophic” is shrinking.

The two flashpoints I keep coming back to are Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

China’s posture toward Taiwan has grown increasingly assertive, and the window for a forced reunification attempt — whether through blockade, gray-zone pressure, or outright invasion — is a real strategic consideration among analysts, not just speculation. Xi Jinping has tied his legacy to the Taiwan question in ways that make backing down politically costly. If that move comes, it almost certainly draws in the United States, Japan, and potentially Australia, triggering a conflict that would dwarf anything we’ve seen since 1945.

Then there’s North Korea, which has gone conspicuously quiet. That’s not necessarily reassuring. The DPRK has spent the last several years dramatically advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and silence from Pyongyang sometimes precedes provocation rather than signaling restraint. A miscalculation on the Korean Peninsula — or a deliberate escalation — could ignite a second front almost simultaneously.

What would it mean if several of these regional conflicts metastasized at once? At some point, the international community would have to reckon with the label: World War 3.

And here’s the domestic question that keeps nagging at me. If that label became unavoidable — if the U.S. were actively drawn into multiple simultaneous conflicts — would it create the political conditions for something unthinkable at home? Emergency powers have been expanded and abused before, even in democracies. The scenario where a president uses wartime crisis as justification to delay or suspend elections is not fantasy; it’s a documented playbook from history, and one that American institutions have never actually been stress-tested against at this scale.

I’m hopeful we don’t get there. I genuinely am. But hope isn’t a strategy, and the architecture of the current moment deserves to be taken seriously.

Only time will tell — and lately, time hasn’t been especially reassuring.

Our A.I.-Caused Recession Is Here

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though This Is It.

It seems as though we’ve finally reached the long-feared moment, tipping point, when A.I. productivity gains begin to influence the job market. And for it happen in the context of a war and the inflation caused by an uptick in oil prices is kind of a lose-lose situation.

I don’t know what to tell you.

It’s been a good run, I guess.

Now, on the political front, we have to wonder if the economy tanking would make Trump more or less a tyrant. That one is really up in the air. I just don’t know.

I really don’t.

He could go either way. He could see a souring economy as an excuse to get worse. Or, if his poll numbers get really bad he might just calm the shit down a tiny bit.

It really could go either way.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

From Doomscrolls to Agentic Insight: How Personal AI Agents Could Finally Pull Us Out of Social Media’s Morass

We’ve all felt it: the endless scroll, the algorithmic outrage machine, the quiet realization that your feed has become a hall of mirrors where every extreme voice is amplified and every moderate one drowned out. Social media’s business model—engagement farming—thrives on division. It pushes the hottest takes, the sharpest tribal signals, the content engineered to keep you angry, afraid, or addicted. The result? Deepened information silos, eroded shared reality, and a society that feels more fractured by the day.

But what if the same technology now racing toward us—personal AI agents—could flip the script entirely?

The Problem Is by Design

Today’s platforms optimize for time-on-site, not truth or understanding. Recommendation engines learn that outrage performs better than nuance, so they serve it up relentlessly. Studies have long shown this creates filter bubbles and echo chambers, but the mechanism was opaque—until recently.

In a landmark experiment published in Science in November 2025, researchers from Stanford, Northeastern, and the University of Washington built a simple browser extension powered by a large language model. It intercepted users’ X (formerly Twitter) feeds in real time and reranked posts: some groups saw partisan animosity and anti-democratic content pushed down; others saw it pushed up. No posts were removed. No platform cooperation was needed. Just an intelligent layer sitting between the user and the algorithm.

The results were striking. After just 10 days during the 2024 election cycle, users in the “down-ranked” group showed measurable reductions in affective polarization—feeling about two points warmer toward the opposing party on a 0–100 thermometer scale. That’s an effect size researchers equated to reversing roughly three years of natural polarization trends. The control was clear: up-ranking the toxic stuff made attitudes worse. Algorithms don’t just reflect polarization; they actively fuel it.

This wasn’t a hypothetical. It was proof that an AI-mediated layer can meaningfully counteract the worst incentives of social media—without waiting for platforms to change.

Enter the Personal Agent Era

The 2025 study used a relatively simple reranker. True personal AI agents—autonomous, goal-directed systems you own and configure—take this concept to an entirely new level.

Imagine an agent that doesn’t wait for you to open an app. It monitors the information environment on your behalf, according to rules you set:

  • “Synthesize the latest on [topic] from primary sources across the spectrum, steel-man the strongest arguments on every side, flag low-credibility claims, and alert me only when something moves the needle on my understanding.”
  • “Default to epistemic humility: always include the best counter-evidence to my priors.”
  • “Strip virality metrics, engagement bait, and emotional manipulation signals.”

Consumption shifts from passive doomscrolling to proactive, query-driven intelligence. News becomes something you summon and shape rather than something served to you. The infinite feed is replaced by synthesized digests, verified threads, and multi-perspective briefings.

Early signals are already here. Millions use LLM-powered tools for daily summaries, fact-checking, and research. Agentic systems (those that can plan, act, and iterate toward goals) are moving from research labs into consumer products. When your agent becomes your primary information interface, the platform’s engagement engine loses its direct line to your attention.

The Risks Are Real—But Manageable

Critics rightly warn of “Echo Chambers 2.0.” If agents are built as pure user-pleasers—mirroring your every bias and shielding you from discomfort—they could create hyper-personalized realities more isolating than anything today. We’re already seeing early versions of this in overly sycophantic chatbots and emerging AI-only social spaces (like experimental platforms where millions of agents debate while humans observe from the sidelines).

The difference is control. Unlike today’s black-box platform algorithms, personal agents can be open-source, transparent, and user-configurable. You can instruct them to break your bubble by default. Multi-agent systems could even debate internally before surfacing a balanced view. The same technology that risks deepening silos can also dissolve them—if we prioritize truth-seeking architectures over engagement-maximizing ones.

A New Media Economy Emerges

In this landscape:

  • Creation floods with AI-generated slop, but consumer agents ruthlessly filter for signal. Human-witnessed reporting, primary sources, and verifiable authenticity become the new premium.
  • Publishers optimize for agent-readable formats: structured data, clear provenance, machine-verifiable claims.
  • Virality matters less when agents aren’t chasing platform metrics.
  • Economics shift from attention harvesting to utility delivery. Users may demand data portability and agent APIs, weakening the walled gardens.

The passive platform era ends. The age of agent-mediated media begins.

Will It Actually Happen?

Yes—for those who choose it. The 2025 Science study and related experiments (including work showing AI can reduce defensiveness when delivering counter-attitudinal messages) demonstrate the technical feasibility. Adoption is already accelerating: over a billion people interact with AI monthly, and agentic capabilities are improving rapidly.

Not everyone will opt in. Some will prefer the comfort of confirmation agents. Platforms will fight to retain control. But the trajectory is clear: once people experience an information co-pilot that serves understanding rather than addiction, most won’t go back.

The social media morass wasn’t inevitable. It was a product of specific incentives. Personal AI agents let us rewrite those incentives—putting the steering wheel back in human hands.

We stand at the threshold of a strange but hopeful possibility: technology that once divided us becoming the tool that helps us see more clearly, argue more honestly, and understand more deeply. The agents are coming. The only question is whether we build them to farm engagement… or to pursue truth.

(This post draws on peer-reviewed research including Piccardi et al., “Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization,” Science, November 2025, and related work on AI-mediated information environments. Views are the author’s own.)