Tag: Fuck Neo-Confederates

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.

The Big Ugly: TrumpBarr Will Have To Be Physically Dragged From The White House If They Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The old Benjamin Wittes quip is Trump is “malevolence mitigated by incompetence.” Another saw is “autocrats never lose.” By every possible metric, it seems as though Trump, through Barr, is going to stay in power by any means necessary even if there is a Biden landslide.

TrumpBarr would rather destroy the whole country than have Trump risk criminal exposure once he is out of office. Or, put another way, the only way Trump is leaving office should he lose is not only will he salt the earth on his way out, he’s going to demand some sort of promise about not being prosecuted once he’s no longer president.

I would even suggest he might frogwalk Obama between November and January to drive the point across — if you think me indicting Obama was bad, just wait until you try to do it to ME.

The issue is — Trump is an avatar for some seriously fucked up issue in American society. He’s like political herpes. Now that we have him, he ain’t going anywhere. Or, at least, his influence in government isn’t going anywhere. I think Trump is literally going to stay in office for the rest of his life, but that may be overstating the issue.

It could be that we’re simply in A New Era and Trump will be like Reagan was — there was life before the Reagan Revolution and life after it. I’m not one of those people who thinks Republicans will run away from Trump. To the contrary, Trump will be the new heart and soul of the Republican Party. Everything will be relative to him, just like it used to be everything was relative to Reagan.

Or, put yet another way, while I keep hearing people talk about how “fragile” our democracy is, I think we’re no longer a democracy. We’re now, officially, an autocratic managed democracy and the only possible way we have some sort of House Trump Interregnum is how God-awful incompetence Trump is at being an autocrat.

As such, we might have a few years of respite from autocracy, but soon enough, a new autocrat will take power and that will be that. It will be Trumpism without Trump. And I still think Trump will be like a reverse Gorbachev. Instead of bringing freedom to a country, Trump will strangle it.

Though I will note that while I’m often wrong, something really big has to happen for Trump to simply never leave office. TrumpBarr will use the same media narrative management techniques they used with The Mueller Report. The more difficult is for them to do this, the more radical they will become to the point that it’s rather brazen that A Very American Coup is taking place.

In the end, we may have to go through what I call The Big Ugly. And there are no assurances that the Good Guys will win if that happens.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.

The Bad Guys Are Going To Win


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see any way that the bad guys of TrumpBarr don’t win. Even though I’m very pleased with how many people are voting right now, in the end, it won’t matter — TrumpBarr will likely nationalize the National Guard across the country Election Night and stop voting “until SCOTUS can figure things out.”

Or whatever.

We’re too far down the road to tyranny. In fact, we’re IN tyranny. Autocrats never lose. There’s going to be A Very American Coup and because we can’t get the conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to care, it’s going to be successful. There may be some violence and threats of secession, but in the end, nothing will happen.

It will all be decided at SCOTUS and it will just be a more extreme version of 2000. I just don’t see any other outcome. Even if there was a landslide, you have to actually count the votes, you know. TrumpBarr will either never let that happen, or they’re just going to sue everything and everyone to SCOTUS and win there.

Darkness is here. We’re in a dystopia. Get out of the country while you still can. Proles like me will just have to make do as best we can. I’ll be snatch off the street or pushed out a window by ICE soon enough. Maybe sent to a re-education came and die there. Who knows.

The only way that doesn’t happen is if people are willing to risk things important to them in the real world. I just don’t see that happening. And if they do, Qanon or whomever will respond in kind and the whole country will implode.

If that happens, then TrumpBarr uses the Insurrection Act from here on out. Maybe there will be a dystopian Second Reconstruction. Autocrats never fucking lose.

Good luck

The Big Ugly: America Has A Very ‘July 1991 Soviet Union’ Vibe To It Right Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why I keep comparing Trump to Gorbachev is I can remember in the years leading up to the August Coup how no one, but no one could understand what his agenda was or what the ultimate endgame would be.

Trump is the same way — we know we’re in a new era and we have no idea how any of this is going to end.

I still think very, very soon we’re going to experience The Big Ugly. I like this phrase because it’s not like I have to say, civil war, revolution or implosion. It’s just something BAD — The Big Ugly. The reason why I think The Big Ugly is going to happen is TrumpBarr will never peacefully leave office and, yet, the mood of the country (maybe?) has subtly begun to shift towards something (maybe?) akin to a landslide (if we were still a liberal democracy.)

As such, when TrumpBarr stage a coup of some sort, that’s going to slam up against American self-perception and the bolts may pop of the country. To the extent we see a massive amount of domestic political refugees as Red and Blue States begin to consolidate.

There’s also a chance that something pretty lit might happen in NYC — Trump Tower could be stormed. FOX News, The WSJ and New York Post could be literally driven out of the city. Hell, maybe even some sort of commune might be established there (free state?)

Anyway, the point is — there’s no endgame right now. The United States, because of the passions of the 2020 election and personality cult that surrounds Mad King Trump I may, well, fucking implode like the Soviet Union did in late 1991.

In general, I would suggest this isn’t going to happen because the countries are too different. And, yet, fucking cocksucker MAGA-Qanon shitheads may simply decide to force the issue, especially if TrumpBarr gives them every reason to believe they can successful keep Trump in power via some sort of well-finessed media messaging management coup.

To me, it seems as though The Big Ugly might happen for no other reason than TrumpBarr make the caculation that the dead hand of history is on their side and, by the way, fuck you.

Have no idea if they’re right or not.

Only time will tell.

The Big Ugly: American Balkanization, Canada & Reshaping North America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate it when I accidently slip into giving our dystopian future some sort of all’s well that ends well narrative like some sort of sanguin liberal-progressive Turner Diaries. With the Turner Diaries it was — as I understand it — a far Right fever dream that involved a race war.

With my narrative, it’s The Big Ugly happens but in the end, my liberal-progressive dreams come true because we found a new nation based on the ideals of California.

But that’s really me stroking one out to something that may not happen.

It may be that when The Big Ugly happens, the United States — if it doesn’t become a full-blown autocracy — simply implodes. A form of balkanization happens in the US. And that’s it. There’s no more United States. California successfully leaves the Union and the rest of the Blue States are under the MAGA-Federal jackboot via the Insurrection Act.

And that will be that.

I guess the point of that is The Big Ugly is going to suck should it happen.

Another thing is — if The Big Ugly happens, I just don’t see any way Canada doesn’t get drawn into it. And it won’t be some sort of liberal-progressive circle jerk where Blue States form the United States of Canada with Canada, either. Things may get violent. Canadian worst nightmares about Americans coming after their “resources” may come true.

Or, at least, the entire political map of North American may change in a rather sudden, dramatic fashion. Some sort of force-union between some Blue States and Canada might happen. Or MAGA-USA invades Canada because it meddles in TrumpBarr’s attempts to turn us into Putin’s America.

What I’m saying is — the next four months could really, really fucking suck. A lot of people may die tragic, needless deaths simply because fucking Trump is a demagogic moron who is afraid to go to jail.

I just want a liberal democracy. That should not be so controversal.

If You’re MAGA-Qanon & You Want A Civil War — You Are A Fucking Moron


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It boggles my mind that a sizable portion of MAGA-Qanon are so oblivious to how much they are getting using peaceful means that they would start hurting people simply because they were “triggered” because their guy didn’t win on election day.

Idiots!

The American political system is so dominated by MAGA-Qanon (MAGAQ), and macro trends are so in their favor, that if they started hurting people, all of that may go poof! pretty quick.

I say this because political violence is so alien to modern Americans that the idea that dipshit MAGAQ would start shooting people (or whatever the fuck they want to do) is enough that they may lose everything. Americans have a strong sense of justice and hurting people is A Bad Thing for 99% of us. And, yet, here we are.

I keep seeing shithead guys with tiny cocks and big guns walking around threatening people.

As an aside — what I think is going to happen is these fucktards are going to firebomb polling stations on Election Night so we can’t figure out who won. Then TrumpBarr seizes “total control” as has already been suggested. Then either the really do turn into Putin’s Russia, or we are absolutely forced against our will to fight back.

I hate that. I don’t want that. I just want a functioning liberal democracy.

That should not be a big deal.

Trump Being Bonkers Is A Lulz, Until…


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, for some time now, Trump’s mental acuity has been in self-evident decline. In short, he’s slowly going bonkers. But he’s been bonkers for so long in a very publish fashion that at this point we see it as white noise.

So, what has to happen is Trump really, really, REALLY has to go bonkers for it to matter. Specifically, he has to do something that would hurt himself politically because it’s so bad that it would puncture the bubble of “I haven’t see the tweet” that currently surrounds him.

What, exactly, would that be?

Well, all I got is he starts to actually spew racist vitrol on Twitter. He starts to use the N-Word on Twitter. He starts to call AOC obscene names on Twitter. He does has to do something so batshit insane and offensive that it actually causes people to sit up and take notice.

Or, lulz, he starts a war.

I just don’t see any of that happening, though. Even as bonkers as he is, Trump would really, really be out of it if he actually did something concrete that was actually impossible to defend.

Who knows.

Our Coming Political 9/11


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the purposes of the media is to help construct reality. They make it so there’s an ebb and flow to life. It’s when something so jarring, so astonishing happens that they can’t do their job of making us just accept things that you have a crisis on your hands.

Two things are true right now: Biden is doing well politically. Trump is going to use extra-political means to “win” the election.

So, as such, the question is — are we careening towards a “political 9/11” in which CNN’s Anderson Cooper has to look at us and say, “For the first, time, the United States is in the midst of an attempted coup.”

It will really get that bad. Trump and Barr are going to try to steal the election through extra-political means post election no matter what. Even if Biden somehow wins the popular vote by a landslide, Barr is going to use the full weight of the United States to prevent Biden from actually taking office.

If you throw in batshit insane MAGA-Qanon people running around blowing shit up and murdering people in cold blood for political reasons, well, you got the beginning of a civil war or a revolution. Something bad, to say the least.

So, I would suggest you buckle up. Get ready like you did for COVID19. We’re either going to turn into a Russian-style managed democracy or there’s going to be a civil war – revolution. There’s no middle ground, tragically.

The Darkest Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of right now, it seems as though Trump is going to be fine. There may be a lot of rumors about him being near-death, but just like Little Rocket Man, he’ll pull through and be fine. He can go about his work of destroying the Republic unfettered.

But, let’s imagine that doesn’t happen.

Two major issues immediately confront us — what to do with Republican ticket and any political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who think it’s all a Deep State effort to stop Trump from taking “total control.”

The Ticket
The few MAGA people I talk to say Pence is not for them. So, it seems as though there will be a very brutal power struggle to figure out who will lead the Republicans. Because he’s already on the ticket, Pence has the 9/10th rule on his side. But this things may grow very untenable for him politically very quickly. I could see Ivanka becoming the Republican nominee or some negotiated deal whereby Pence promises to name her veep should he win. All I know is — House Trump ain’t going nowhere.

Violence
I believe the United States would suffer unprecedented political violence from the moment the Dear Leader flew his unicorn into the sky. In fact, it could be that Trump’s legacy may be the thing that brings down the Republic and pushes us into civil war / revolution, not the living Trump.

But I just don’t see either one of those being an issue. Just because Claudia Conway says he’s “sicker” than we’re being told, doesn’t mean anything. I would, however, check with her immediately if rumors of The Dear Leader’s demise pop out of the darkness.