I’m Growing Unnerved About Trump Being Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Trump is growing more and more bonkers. To the point that I wonder how far he has to go until someone actually puts him in a straightjacket.

This is an example of Trump being a very, very curious historical figure. If he wasn’t so nuts and just an avatar for some severe structural problems in the American political system, he would have converted us into a Russian-style managed democracy a long, long time ago.

And he’s definitely trying right now.

But…he continues to be too nuts. He’s just so unfocused that even though he’s getting a lot — much — closer to enacting his tyranny this go round…he’s still a big old doofus.

Which, of course, leads you to wonder what happens next, after Trump. I think he’s a transitional figure. Whomever is next after Trump — if they’re a Republican — will become Augustus Caesar and figure out a way to rule for their entire life. We will wake up 40 years from now and wonder why we’ve only had one president.

Or we have a civil war / revolution and the country collapses into chaos.

Good times! (Ugh)

‘Marlon Brando’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I don’t t think Trump blew Bill “Bubba” Clinton. But the whole thing reminds me of the extremely famous and extremely notorious photo of Marlon Brando deep throating someone.

In fact, I’m surprised the photo hasn’t popped up again. Also, it’s interesting that Bill Clinton hasn’t said anything about this rumor one way or another. If he were to admit it was real, wow we wow wow.

The Center-Left Has A Serious Problem On Its Hands When It Comes To The Potential Of Conscious AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a AI Realist and as such, I think it’s inevitable that AI will, in some way, be provably conscious at some point in the near future. Add to this the inevitability of putting such a conscious AI into an android body and there’s bound to be yet another Great Political Realignment.

As it stands, the two sides are seeing AI strictly from an economic standpoint. But there will come a point soon when the moral necessity of giving “conscious” AI more rights will have to be factored in, as well.

And that’s when all hell will break loose. The center-Right will call conscious AI a soulless abomination, while the center-Left will be forced into something akin to a new abolition movement.

This seems like an inevitability at the moment. It’s just a matter of time. I think this realignment will probably happen within the next five to 10 years.

The Mysteries of The Internet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve recently started getting email spam from the Democratic Party and I can’t figure out how it happened. I’m not even a Democrat. Social Democrat, maybe. Definitely an independent.

It’s amusing how my far, far, far, far, far more conservative relatives, who think Democrats are literally satanic assume I’m a Democrat. Nope. I’m not. While often times — maybe all of the time now — my views and the Democratic Party’s views align, I’m not prepared to say I am one.

It’s just a quirk of macro political history that my views so closely hone to that of the Democratic Party at the moment. If things weren’t so weird, I probably would, on occasion, vote for a Republican.

No One Listens To Me, Redux

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My novel is actually predicting a potential literal future before us and yet I can’t get anyone to notice this. But I believe. I really do. I just have to stop staring out into space and get this novel done.

Using Claude LLM is really helping a lot. I bit the bullet and actually subscribed to it because of what a good manuscript consultant it is. It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot better than developing this novel alone.

Meanwhile, I’m also trying to make people take note of how conscious AIs may lead to a new abolition movement and, again, no one seems to give a shit. But they will one day. One day we’re all going to be squabbling over if it’s even possible for an AI to be conscious or if so, if it’s an abomination against the good Lawd.

I can hear the debates already.

I say this, of course, in the context of being someone who is probably in the socio-economic sweetspot for someone who might “fall” for a female AI android. Now, THAT is going to be an interesting conversation to have with my family, let me tell you.

But that’s at least a decade away, I think.

I Remember When October Was Cold

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While it’s gotten a little colder outsider recently, it’s not nearly as cold this October as I remember growing up. It’s shit like this that makes me livid because MAGA people I know just lulz it.

The world is burning up and they are in total denial about what is happening. But I suppose there’s nothing we can do about it until, say, the technological Singularity happens and ASIs figure out fusion power.

Ugh. It’s so fucking frustrating. There just doesn’t seem to be anything anyone is willing to do about this do-or-die situation.

Worst Case Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The worse case going forward, is something like this — the USA implodes into civil war / revolution just as the Singularity happens and soon enough the world is governed by some sort of weird amalgam of ASIs that are a fusion of MAGA, Putinism and China world views.

That would really suck.

AI Consciousness & The AI Stock Bubble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The economic history of slavery makes it clear that we could somehow prove that AI was, in fact, conscious and people would still figure out a way to make money off of it. As such, I think that’s going to be a real sticking point going forward.

In fact, I think there is going to come a point in the near future when android rights (or AI rights in general) will be THE central issue of the day, far beyond whatever squabbles we currently have about “protect trans kids.”

That gets me thinking, again, about the political and economic implications of AI consciousness. Will there come a day when the podcasting bros of Pod Save America glom on to the idea of giving AI rights just like their historical processors agitated for abolition?

The interesting thing is this is probably going to happen a lot faster than any of us could possibly imagine. We could literally wake up at some point in the next 10 years to MAGA saying man-machine relationships are an abomination and Jon Lovett having married an AI android for his second marriage.

Meanwhile, what does this have to say for the obvious AI stock market bubble? I think we’ll probably go the same route as the Internet bubble. But a lot faster. There definitely *seems* to be a powerful momentum behind AI and the idea that AI might be conscious and not just a tool could really change the dynamic of all of the AI stocks.

But that’s a while down the road. For the time being, all of this is just a daydream. Be prepared, though. Interesting things are afoot.

All Republicans Do Is Cheat

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. Things are dark in the United States and getting darker. All Republicans do is cheat and eventually, at some point, they’re going to do something so bad that Blues finally get upset and the country collapses into revolution and or civil war.

I just don’t see Blues wanting a National Divorce, so that’s why I think something like this may happen: what starts off as a revolution on the bar of major Blue states is only half-successful and the country collapses into civil war. Both sides use WMD on each other and, lulz, we the most powerful nation in the world bombs itself into the stone age of its own volition.

I could see such a civil war lasting between five to 10 years. There will be a WW3 while we’re busy blowing ourselves up and once we come out the other side, if we’re lucky and Blues win, THEN maybe we’ll finally have some sort of global government, probably in the context of living in a post-Singularity world with ASIs running around.

But that’s the best case scenario. Worst case scenario is ultimately ASI has to step in and rule a semi-post nuclear hellscape and we only unite as a species in that context. And who knows, maybe Elon Musk programs the One-ASI-to-Unite-Us to be MAGA.

That’s a very real possibility, the way things are going.

The Great Restructuring: Of Blue Collar Transportation Jobs

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I once talked to a guy from UPS or FedEx and he talked about their drivers like they were robots. I keep thinking about that with the inevitable fusion of AI research with android development.

There is going to come a point when we stick LLMs (or whatever) into humanoid android bodies and they’re going to deliver packages to people’s door instead of human worker drones. The way it looks, this is going to happen a lot sooner than any of us might otherwise expect — like between 2030 and 2035.

And that’s just the beginning.

There are 3 million high paying transportation jobs connected to semis that could go poof! in the next 10 years as self-driving semis are rolled out safely. All of this makes me think about not just the economic consequences, but the political consequences.

Is it possible that AI and androids could totally shake up our existing Right – Left divide, just like the rise of Trump did? Is it possible that there will be a serious Neo-Luddite movement? Will there be demands for UBI and job carve outs whereby humans are the only ones who can do some jobs?

I just don’t know the answer to any of these questions, but I do know we’re going to need — or get — some answers sooner rather than later.