If you want to get some sense of how fucking cooked the Union is at the moment, look no further than how the Right and the Left are getting angry over the recent leaked preliminary SCOTUS overturning Roe.
The Left is understandably angry about the the fact that Roe is being overturned. While the Right is….
…the fact that this opinion was leaked?
That’s what they’re going with?
Apparently, yes.
So, this is an example of how the two are talking past each other. MAGA is totally wrapped up in all of this being leaked, while the Left is rightfully apoplectic about the case.
The point, of course, is that MAGA talking heads don’t want to talk about directly something that makes them squirm — their hatred of abortion rights is extremely unpopular.
And, in the end, we continue to slouch towards either a civil war or a MAGA autocracy.
History may not repeat but it does rhyme. Overturning Roe might, in hindsight, be seen as a modern day Dred Scott decision. And it definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards the biggest political crisis since 1860 – 1861. The passions of the 2024 election could very well tear the United States apart in a way not seen since the Civil War.
I have repeatedly said that around 2024 – 2025 we will face a choice. Either we turn into a MAGA autocracy or we have a Second American Civil War. Or, put another way, starting now, the United States is going to grow even more politically unstable than it has been since Trump became POTUS.
There are a lot ways that there could be a civil war.
Everything from Republicans being angry that Democrats keep Congress in 2022 to Democrats being angry that the administration of elections has grown so corrupted in 2024 that they no longer feel they can win, period.
Part of all of this is how the overturning of Roe might be the equivalent of the Dred Scott decision. When women get angry, things tend to change in a big way. It happened during the French Revolution, it might happen now.
But I just have no idea which way things will go. It could be we simply slip peacefully into autocracy, it could be that we have a civil war.
At the moment, it could go either way.
Overturning Roe, however, definitely seems to make the idea of a Second American Civil War seem far more likely.
Here’s how something akin to a civil war could start as soon as later this year.
SCOTUS overturns Roe and this energizes the Democratic base to the point that there is a groundswell in November. Democrats when, but because the administration of elections is so corrupt now…they don’t win.
Ta-da.
There is also a chance the other side (MAGA) might start some sort of severe political violence in 2022 simply because they don’t believe in democracy anymore and, by definition, any election where they don’t win is illegitimate.
The chief thing I think is wrong when it comes to how we weigh the idea of a Second American Civil War happening is a basic miscalculation about the relative strengths of the two sides at the onset of any such war.
In fact, it is that basic miscalculation, I think, that would probably cause the war to start in the first place. The Right (Reds), thinking the Left (Blues) are all a bunch of numale soyboys, will think they can win any such Second American Civil War quickly and decisively.
Meanwhile, in the real world, things are far more complicated.
The issue is — generally, no matter how much of a numale soyboy you may be, if things grow existential because a MAGA person wants to murder you in cold blood because of your political views, you’re going to stop worrying about your pronouns and start doing something to defend yourself.
So, as such, Red MAGA people are going into any such potential fight with a misjudgment of what they’re getting themselves into. But we have to be clear — if there is a civil war, it’s going to be nasty and blood and more people will die as a result of it than died in WW2.
I say this because WMD will be seized by both sides and used gratuitously during the course of any such war.
But hopefully it won’t happen. Hopefully.
I will note, however, that if somehow, miraculously Democrats keep Congress in the fall, the likelihood of a Civil War is just about the same as if they lost it — but the context will be dramatically different.
If they lose Congress, the there’s a good chance that Trump will become Speaker — if for a limited amount of time — and all we’ll do is watch impeachment trials of Biden and Harris for two years. If the Democrats keep Congress, meanwhile, the pressure for some sort of rolling “Troubles” type civil war will grow.
And remember, I still believe we’re going to have a civil war that’s based on the state level, just like the first civil war. The dynamic will be the same when it begins, at least — (Blue) States will leave the Union around 2024 – 2025 because the administration elections has become totally corrupt.
But 2024 – 2025 remain the moment in time we have to worry about. Things are going to get really, really messy around then.
Given how overnight Elon Musk has become the center of the Twitter world with his online chaos, we have to admit that he’s very Trump like. We’ve reached a similar situation as we did with Trump.
He has a huge built-in popularity base and he could easily throw his hat into the POTUS ring — and win.
But for one thing: he was born in South Africa.
And, given how weird Musk is, it’s even possible that Musk might use a few billion dollars to, through brute force, change the Constitution so he can run and hold office.
But one thing we have to to appreciate is how potentially dangerous Musk is going forward. He has the means, motive and opportunity to really fuck things up. We’ll see how all this sorts out going forward.
The late Annie Shapiro called me — at the height of our emotional warfare over ROKon Magazine in Seoul — a “delusional jerk with a good heart.” And, honestly, if that’s the worst she could say about me, I’ll go with it.
I was kind of a drunk asshole at that point in time.
Anyway, I reminded of this quip about me on her part when the person behind the Mueller, She Wrote Twitter account explained why she blocked me. Two things stuck out.
One, she said I mischaracterized her “work” on Twitter. Two, she said I was “terribly negative.”
Let’s address One first. She doesn’t come out and say that someone is going to save us, but she definitely does engage in a lot of breathless Twitter threads about this or that bad thing Trump and his coterie of ne’er-do-wells will bring them all down.
And this is isn’t going to happen.
So, yes, the Mueller, She Wrote account doesn’t SAY someone is “going to save us” but it is named after Mueller, who liberals in 2017 thought — you guessed it — would save us.
Now, as for me being “terribly negative,” I can take that. She and I have a very different take on the future of the American political system. She writes breathlessly — to great effect within Twitter liberal circles — about how we’re just ever so close to seeing the entire Trumplandia edifice that will be about to collapse.
And I think that’s bullshit.
We have to accept that around 2024 – 2025 we’re either going to have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. In other words, we’re fucked. She thinks we aren’t and I think we are.
If that causes me to be blocked by one of the better known “Resistance” Twitter liberal accounts, so be it. One person’s “terribly negative” is another person’s “being realistic.”
I know what you’re saying, “Oh, this is just more of idiots ‘hysterical doom shit’ that got him blocked on Twitter by Mueller, She Wrote.” And, I guess, that’s an accurate description in some way.
But some of it is just stating the obvious — there are some deep seated problems in American politics that aren’t going anywhere. And I’m of the opinion that we’re careening towards a situation in 2024 – 2025 of having to pick between autocracy and civil war.
Here are the problems we face.
We Live In An Age Of No Nuance A lot of the problems the United States faces require nuance that we just don’t have as a nation. All we do is resort to “both sides” whenever it’s possible that our side show not to be perfect. This allows us to avoid any accountability and we march ever closer to existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
We’ve Passed The Tyrannical Event Horizon There’s nothing we can do at this point. Macro trends are such that we’re careening towards autocracy or civil war around 2024 -2025. That’s it. No other choices. I know that it sounds like “hysterical doom shit” but that’s where all the metrics are pointing.
We’ve Given Up If we still cared about having some shared goals and dreams as a nation, then we would be far more likely to do the things necessary to keep the country together the way it was in the past. But, alas, it’s over. We just don’t have the energy to defeat the rise of autocracy in the United States. And if we do, it will be through something I hate — violence on the battlefield.
Anyway, good luck everyone. Don’t know what to say but we had a good run.
The key issue about January 6th is we know what the conspiracy was and we know what the plan was. And yet, because of macro trends outside of our control, in the end, nothing will change.
Apparently, the plan was for the mob to drive Pence out of the Capitol and then Republican Senate President Pro Temp Grassley would handle things from that point on. The hope was that there would be sufficient clashes between the Right and the Left that the narrative would be that for Trump to declare martial law.
The rest would take care of itself.
There would likely be significant violence, but, in the end, the entire system to devoted telling the masses to calm down. As such, the only reason why the plan didn’t succede was the plotters were too lazy and stupid not to force the issue about Pence.
When Pence would not leave the Capitol, Biden becoming president was inevitable.
This does raise the question of if there had been significant political violence around January 6 beyond what actually existed, would there have been a civil war? The conditions were definitely there.
But even if Pence had played along and martial law was declared, we, as a nation, just weren’t ready for a civil war.
Come 2024 – 2025, however, I think that will be a lot different. We’re going to be primed and ready for a civil war — based on the state level — and we really will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
From my personal experience, the idea of “wokeness” has become a catch all enemy for MAGA. It’s tribal and abstract. Everything they don’t like, they ascribe to “the woke cancel culture mob.” It doesn’t matter if there is any connection to reality or not.
And it’s not like this is going to abate once they get want they want. The MAGA New Right won’t be happy until the center-Left is totally crushed and a white Christian ethno state is established. So, we’re going to drift and drift towards autocracy until there’s no more slack in the system.
A lot could happen between now and then, of course. It’s possible that as the MAGA New Right grows closer to its goal, the country will grow more and more unstable. As such — because we’ve bumped up against the self-perception of Americans of America being a “free country” — we’ll have a civil war. The only difference with this scenario is the civil war will happen later than the general 2024 – 2025 timeframe that I’ve come to believe.
But the point is — we’re careening towards a very, very dark future.
And, yet, I still struggle with why. Why is all of this happening? I think some of it has to do with the gap between Youngs and Olds when it comes to what is acceptable in the public sphere has grow so enormous that Olds are using their power to fight back. Or, put another way, they feel powerless, and so they’re turning to fascism.
But make no mistake about it — the United States is in a pre-fascist state. The only question is, do we have a civil war as we transition into an autocracy or do we slip peacefully into autocracy. Right now, I just don’t know which one we’re going to do.
It’s with growing alarm that I see the MAGA New Right grow not only more and more radical, but more and more detached from reality. But, here we are — the conservative Traditionalists in my family grow more and more radical every time I see them.
It makes you wonder — what’s the endgame of all of this.
The only unknown at the moment is if we have a civil war or if we slip peacefully into autocracy. I think it’s the latter. And then the issue is how bad, exactly, is the autocracy going to get? At the moment, I think it’s probably going to settle somewhere around modern day Russia. But there is a chance that because of race we go full blown Nazi Germany. So, somewhere between Putin’s Russia and Hitler’s Germany is where America will find itself once the autocratic dust settles.
But one thing is for sure — the America that we all have known our entire lives is in its twilight. Either we have a civil war with WMD and maybe, just maybe, renew the American Covenant, or we become an autocracy and millions upon millions of people die in the camps.
Regardless, the MAGA New Right will get its way one way or another. Either they get their civil war and radicalize that way or they don’t bungle the tradition into autocracy. The very thing that has, to date, stopped our tradition into an autocracy the so called “Deep State” will be the first to go and then there will be no breaks to slow our decent into tyranny.
And all of this is happening in broad daylight and we’re doing nothing to stop it. That’s the sad thing about it all. But we’re dealing with historical macro trends. We’re passed the even horizon for a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” sometime around 2024 -2025.
We are, in short, doomed. There’s no going back. All we can do is figure out what we believe in and what we’re willing to suffer for in the real world. That, at least, is all I got at the moment as to a “solution.”
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